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Tiresome Tuesday Rub Down
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Tiresome Tuesday Rub Down

by The MoleSeptember 29, 2009

Today was just outright annoying – I saw a lot of traders jumping left and right who in the end really didn’t get anywhere. From a bearish perspective this is encouraging but what I liked the most actually was the closing NYSE A/D ratio at 0.932. Quite a contrast from yesterday’s Yom Kippur no volume day 3.77. Maybe there is hope – we’ll know by tomorrow evening.

Zero was being pulled in every direction today – in hindsight it makes sense but I don’t see a lot of tradeable entries except maybe for the pronounced divergence mid day.

Program Trading Update:

evil.rat/ES: +0.75
evil.rat/NQ: -2.5
resident.evil/ES: -6.75
geronimo/ES: -3.5 (one losing trade that pretty much ran most of the day)

I have some good news on the geronimo front. Eric and I were silently running a version of geronimo that actually had two winners and one loser at the end of the day. It would have produced +1.5 in profits today. Nothing to write home about but better than a 3.5 loser, right? We’ll be releasing the new version tomorrow morning and we’ll hope it’ll get you guys slightly better entries.

I might be in touch later with a quick update on the wave count.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • AntG624

    Its feels like this final fifth wave is going to be a slow grind up with low volume on up days and heavy volume on consolidation. Easy sign of distribution if so.

  • string01

    Hey man… welcome back.

  • Styrfart

    what is this, now mole is posting on the slope, my head is spinning of this ranting around

  • jr9876

    “I have some good news on the geronimo front. Eric and I were silently running a version of geronimo that actually had two winners and one loser at the end of the day. “

    Yes ! Knew you could build a better mouse trap (Geronimo). Tighter stops ? Time limit fills ? I personally, will close the trade out after 15-20m if it doesn't hit target, depending on the time of day, but that's just me..

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Just jumped into USD/JPY long 2 lots (just love that FX) 🙂

  • ultrabear

    I might have had a couple of glasses of Catena Malbec (it's 2120 here), but I am fecked if I can make head or tail of the 1 min wave count right now.

    Interested to see what you will come up with.

  • PRSGuitars

    You are in the future? what is 2120 like? What's the EW count? Is the rally still going on? More POMO days announced through 2121 at least?

  • Osso

    thats an argentine red wine from the Catena Zapata winery…..good

  • Trader_Steve

    This is a pretty important picture, I think, of the money to buy running out since Sept 3rd, so I'm posting it again as it was late on the last thread.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folde

    Steve

  • dollar

    Go dollar!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I am counting on that and I think our nice move may come later this week, or first of next week Dollar 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Love the Argentine red wines!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • dollar

    Well I wish it would get going. I paid my school taxes today, feeling a little raped and beaten.

  • gsavli

    not performing very well against EUR though…

  • Osso

    excellent wines…yes……

  • grednfer

    Baby Zero looks like the Bat Signal………..Maybe Gotham's in trouble… 😉

  • dollar

    Pet-food industry enjoys strong sales in weak economy

    Thanks for helping Anna!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, I'm looking forward to your updated wave count.

    Will you appoint me as the leader of the “there is still hope for the orange scenario” camp?

  • LegendC

    My monies are on orange as well.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    ROFL ing llll off to petsmart right now.

  • radist

    orange here, too, as the tape is pushing to fill last year's gap of 1108 and we're almost there.

  • malusDiaz

    By the end of the week please! then be done =)

  • Joe8888

    Update of SPY 10 Minute Channel, we are close to hitting lower channel.and .382% retrace area.

  • Tronacate

    I don't see any reason we can't go down from here. Why not? One bad number could roll us over just like that.

  • ultrabear

    heheheh yes it's all good here in 2120 – the POMO cart has been renewed indefinitely and everybody smiles all the time

  • ultrabear

    it sure is – sadly the selection back here in blighty is a bit limited – the amazing vino was one of the best things about being in sarf america

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    Hi Joe,

    How much credibility do you give the head and shoulders pattern that set up today? It seems pretty clear on your chart. Perhaps it's simply too obvious and should be ignored.

  • ultrabear

    you should try the catena whites too – serious shiznit

    /facebook conversation
    //sorry no poached salmon today – skipped lunch
    ///just made pizzas for din-dins tho

  • Norw_chris

    Cutting through that may put us in 'two jacks' channel:
    http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com/2009/09/bea

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    UNH chart, new style, entry / exit only–zero TA

  • Cerebro82

    Good afternoon folks, there are 2 scenarios happening right now ( as Mole's charts show). The recent drop was a 4th wave and we are on our wave to the P2 peak. The other scenario is that we topped last week. I am betting that we have topped. I am short the /NQ and the /ES. If (and I mean IF) my preferred count is playing out then we should get a powerful third wave tomorrow (which they will blame on the ADP jobs #). My price targets for this third wave is around 985-1000 on the /ES which is 1.6180-2x the first wave(typical third wave projections). Then a 4th wave to kiss the broken trendline and and a 5th wave to confirm it to all the non-believers. My stops for both the /NQ and /ES shorts are one tick above todays highs. I have realized that in the past I have been stubborn cutting my losses short. If it's confirmed you're wrong, you're wrong. Since I trade index futures, it doesn't make sense to try to avg in, just wait for it. It's been tough for me as a bear because I have been educating myself on the real economy, so I know it's only a matter of time.I want the party to the downside to start RIGHT NOW, but trying to pick tops is extremely dangerous. I realized that I was having a patience problem so I decided to trade less. Slowing down has really helped mitigate some of the losses. I'm a bear, so I am uncomfortable being long… Just gotta wait it out if the market isn't there yet. It's coming before you know it. Last thing I want is to be broke when there is no doubt P3 is in full force. so patience til then, and then GO INSANE! This wave down will not dissappoint, the profits will be fast and sweet. With all that a quick look at what I'm talking about http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • Joe8888

    The right shoulder is to low, for a Head N Shoulder Top,,,if has to be even or upwards,,, for a Top,and even and downwards
    for a Inverse ,,,

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    Thanks, Joe, you always post great charts.

  • Jigsaw

    Does anyone actually trade AIG? Looks to be coiling up for a move here
    AIG – http://screencast.com/t/3FIuCabvZor

  • flyboy08

    UGH! Mine are due too, but I'll wait till the end of OCT to pay them:-(…we don't even use the school system upstate..never have.

  • amokta

    like myself you too are waiting for P3 – is it just a mirage, a trick of the light so far? you really believe its coming?

  • thunda72

    Money flow…. haven't looked at that one in several days. Good find….

  • Joe8888

    Hey Kiersten ,

    i was fooling around with the LQD Monthly chart,You spoke about earlier,and found an interesting Channel..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • Tronacate

    I also think the top is in……..as does EWI…….

  • Joe8888

    Only the Feb, Buys AIG,C ,GS,JPM ,BAC-Etc,,,, FROM 1 account of there's and sell it to another one of there accounts,,,,lol,,imo

  • Scrillhog

    After a long while of using $TICK to help with my scalps, I've been using this method for a few weeks now and it has saved my ass more than a few times, while banking some good coin in the process. Anyone who uses EMA's might like to look at this. It might seem odd applying MA's to $TICK but it works surprisingly well. I use 13-34 EMA on the left and 12-26 EMA on the TICK chart.

    See Chart:
    http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/671/tickg.jpg

  • ultrabear

    Nice spot. The end is nigh?

  • Tronacate

    I have AIG putz……..hope it dies as it should

  • neophyte

    saw that too. Appears like a double bottom. What do you think. With a target around 1065 -1066 on the ES to finish off the wave

  • jacksoo

    good to see you on ES anna – caught your early entry (last night) on Slope and was discouraged – -for the learners amongst us having great minds in one location is of much help as the discourse is more enlightening. hope all concerned are able to mend bridges.

  • springheel_jack

    Third time lucky perhaps.

  • Joe8888

    it is interesting,,,,

  • Tronacate

    I use ema on the tick for morning channel trades on the TF

  • ultrabear

    You can make quite a useful oscillator from $TICK much like the $TRIN oscillator – sum $TICK over a number of periods and then subtract a moving average, or a slightly alternative method is to take the difference of exponential and simple moving averages if you want quicker response to more recent ticks. You can then apply a triangular moving average to the result for a little smoothing if necessary.

  • hindawg

    IMO ur wave II was a 5, likey A of ABC(5-3-5). If it was a 5 then it's not done. B may need some more down before a 5 up to finish II. GL

  • AudioTactics

    Today was frustrating for me…

    Called the price action almost to the letter but got stopped out twice so I had no position on by the time the market did what I expected it to. Argh!!!

    And the reason the LQD went straight up is because the average investor has been putting their money into bond mutual funds these days.

  • Scrillhog

    Thanks I will give that a try.

  • hindawg
  • fademe

    My idea is short YHOO and buy RIMM…YHOO has gone down from this point the past couple of times and RIMM finally had an up day after getting whacked.

  • Bricks

    Hello all. We are still in a mighty uptrend that has a couple weeks to go before hitting a major long term resistance line. I think we're going to hug/bounce off the uptrend line on the SPX until at least OCT 15. Even if we bounce and ride that trendline down we are still looking to be at this price level until we break the trendline from the March lows in mid November.

    Until I see these two up trendline broken I'm very hesitant to play short term put/short plays.

    http://screencast.com/t/q8pehlbOj4

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Orange is still in the cards. As Mole said earlier, not much has changed. Today's tape was pretty worthless as far a clearing up a wave count. When /ES turned from 1060 this afternoon, a series of 1-2s down was starting to look pretty good. Falling into the close only sweetened that ticket. I was pretty bullish (looking for 1063 EOD) until that massive rejection at 15:00.

    One thing is pretty clear though. From the peak, we have been falling in 5s and rallying in 3s. To me, that tells me the larger trend is down. Since we can all count a completed counter-trend move into Fed day, and knowing that outside reversals are a lovely indication of a trend change, especially when a couple of hours wipes out days of trading, and since we haven't been able to bust any higher in the past couple of days, I am beginning to drool. (Was that a run-on?) It should be fairly obvious by tomorrow's close what is up (my account) and what is down (the market)! 😛

    Not that I am Mole, but I am working out the nuances of my new wave count and will be happy to share once “it's alive.”

    Skål!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the little boy who called wolf

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Was that a joke? In the first decline I saw the number of strays roaming around my area sky-rocket. People were leaving their pets left and right. Fortunately my gf kept smacking me every time I saw a “poor doggy.” If people are struggling to feed themselves, how the hell can they afford to feed their pets. Unless it is a trained killer that can bring back food, most people will be letting go of their furry companions.

    That is at least what I have seen thus far.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Throw up a nice ATR on that puppy and see if it the trend seems to be waning based on ATR readings from March to October. Let me give you a hint. ATR peaks around 30 just before the end of March. ATR was declining all the way into Fed day. Coincidentally, the day before Fed day was the LOWEST ATR (12.88) of the ENTIRE rise… Momentum fading…

    Just a thought.

    Skål!

  • hindawg
  • grednfer

    Berk,
    In your opinion and from the March bottom of the S&P or the DOW, where would you say the completion of a wave 1 was?
    Maybe it isn't relevant, and I understand that wave counting is somewhat subjective but I'm trying to reconcile in my head and on the chart why 1080 and 9837 weren't the tops of wave 3?

    I'm not an EW guy, but I listened to the EW online VDO over the weekend and now I know just enough to be dangerous.

  • dollar

    Real story: http://www.denverpost.com/ci_13440843
    but, maybe people are buying the pet food for themselves…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, yes… didn't think about all the cat food eaters out there. Seriously…

    Thanks.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Let me grab some grub and I will address this with a full stomach.. 😛

    Thanks.

    Skål!

  • springheel_jack

    Yah.

    They'll be right sooner or later.

    Next week looks good I think.

  • lilme

    …and here is the answer to our lovely LQD chart shooting straight to the sky, the Feds plan one fine day…..

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Officials-Fed-wil

  • grednfer

    Has anybody else been trading the Euro since last Thurs? What an easy trade and such a disciplined trendline. I wish all trades were this easy.

    I get the feeling though, its going to break to the upside and start gobbling shorts.

  • the99th

    I was stopped out for the gain on sunday and have been long since the wave B today.

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    Just some simple cycle wisdom from http://markettimingcycles.wordpress.com/

    We are running out of time. Time is more important than price. When a cycle top or bottom is due the Stock Market will turn regardless if price targets have been reached.

    Now we are approaching the top of a crest to be expected to unfold around mid to end of September 2009. I have a bias for September 28/29th as at that point gravity is at the lowest point in the year and Mercury turns direct. This is why the stock market has been ascending so long, but I guess the influence of gravity could become less and less as we approach September 28th.

    How does that work? When gravity is low, there is less pressure on the earth and on the minds of us all, so we feel less depressed and more optimistic, so we take more risks on the stock market.

    Gravity is at the highest point around February and March of each year as well. If you get the message, you will see that gravity around that time causes the stock market to reach often their lowest point in the year. Hence, the gravity, due to the Sun, Moon pulling at us, causes a natural seasonality. This causes natural cycles to occur that are very powerful. This even has effects on nature around us.

    If our analysis is right we are clearly running out of time towards ds the time target of September 28th/29th 2009 +- 1 trading week.

  • grednfer

    Its right at the trendline now…………I'm out now but have shorted the
    thing 4 times…….its breaking through but the shorts are piling back on.

  • the99th

    It doesn't matter whether or not its P2 or P3, all that matters if that if you get short near the top during tonight's Asian session you may have a shot at a wave 3 tomorrow. Good risk/ reward ratios are ambrosia.

  • the99th

    It hasn't yet turned positive for a wave B on the 3-hr AO's momentum indicator, that tells me its good for a pop tomorrow before reversal. Then, you've got my other favorite carry-short, the Aussie, which has risen damn close to the high. I'm shorting that while staying long Euro and metals. I'm speculating that I could catch a wave III in either direction.

  • grednfer

    Its been much easier to trade than the S&P

  • jacksoo

    EUR/US push thru top of ch or bounce off?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/jacksoo/folders

  • Nightwind

    Eur/USD looks like could try break up out it's downward channel…..my guess it will attempt to make an Inverse HS if it can gain the 1.47 area. USD looks like a weak bear wedge that could possibly retest near it's low. USD momentum is diverging from it's trend.

  • http://twitter.com/timvroom timvroom

    I'm excited about the Geronimo update. I have a hard time following the system faithfully because I don't really understand why it decides to buy/sell. It eases my mind that yall are on top of it with constant updates. Thanks!

  • the99th

    It seems to be breaking through right now.

  • Nightwind

    We're on the same page…

  • dollar

    This ought to take care of all those LQD holders:

    Officials: Fed will need to move quickly when time comes to boost rates, battle inflation
    WASHINGTON (AP) — To prevent inflation from taking off, the Federal Reserve will need to start boosting interest rates quickly and aggressively once the economy is back on firmer footing, Fed officials warned Tuesday.

    “I expect that when it comes time to tighten monetary policy, my colleagues and I will move with an alacrity that, if needed, will be equal in speed and intensity” to when the Fed was slashing rates to battle the recession and the financial crisis, said Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Officials-Fed-wil

  • grednfer

    I think it may battle here a bit……..nice red bar though.

  • Nightwind

    Just an opinion: I think the Feds leak bullshit information to make folks think inflation is coming…..to strengthen their case.

  • grednfer

    Could you lean on the euro to convince me a bit more?
    Do you really think they'll crash the system on the last day of a reporting quarter?

  • Bricks

    Thanks berk. I appreciate the advice. Always learning…

  • jacksoo

    EUR up equities up post a strong end quarter result – isn't that the way they work?

  • dollar

    Maybe so, but whether they leak bs or it's true, people may act on it if they believe it…

  • bshah

    Hello Keirsten,
    if you are out there..
    I did post before about DECK… I was just looking at it. It had 14 up days out of 16, It touched 85.90 today, RSI and Ultimate Osc is way high in 80s. Do you guys see any action happening there..? Volume going down everyday.. Any suggestions..? NIKE posted earnings and stock is up almost $3.

  • de3600

    you have to be joking right

  • Nightwind

    You're absolutely right…they hope that people will act on it by buying up commodities, real estate, stocks, etc to protect themselves from phantom inflation and re-inflate the economy.

  • molecool

    Well, the ATR is related to the range, so that means the market is slowing down. In terms of participation also look at the VolumeAvg:

    http://screencast.com/t/el4Ke5FT

    It's been completely flat for three months now – without the Fed meddling this market would have dropped like a rock in June.

  • dollar

    but as Mole (and fund flows) pointed out, the people are buying bonds

  • Nightwind

    I wonder if you can get a chart on TIP bonds and money flow. I have very little experience in bonds, but these are suppose to hedge against inflation. I'm not even sure if the treasury still offers them. The money flow would give you an idea if the general public was buying into the inflation argument.

  • Nightwind

    Hitting the sack. Goodnight and good luck.

  • reddragonleo

    Grim,

    How does that gravity work on Bulls smoking crack?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Alright mate… I got a few charts showing a few “reasons” why we can count this move the way we do. When I broke it down into a smaller timeframe, I can actually see the C (minor) wave of Y (intermediate) of 2 (primary) tracing out a almost perfect ending diagonal. Don't know why I couldn't see it before (and trust me, I was looking). An ending diagonal would certainly fit the bill “occurring when prices went too far, too fast.” I'd say the March to August rally did just that.

    Anywho, here are the charts I drew up (ending diagonal not shown). Time relationships are fairly fitting here, even though price (in dollars) doesn't line up quite as nice. I totally see what you are saying, and I cannot rule out that we will still push up in a wave 5…

    http://screencast.com/t/hmjjxMMovv
    http://screencast.com/t/Bjhv7HFwYEQ

    As far as why… The $INDU peaked at a previous 4th wave (of a 3rd wave) which is a VERY common wave 2 target. $SPX, I got nothing. I can even make sense of the fact that it rallied from the lows of 666. Seems awfully religious for a greed-monger market, but who's to judge right? Personally, I was expecting a push TOWARDS those beautiful round numbers everyone is pegged on, but, honestly, I was never expecting to actually reach them.

    Sorry for making you wait and having a sub-par (per my own personal standard) response to your very legitimate question. As we have said before though, we should have a REAL good indication of the market's true nature by tomorrow's close.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    And frankly, there are a whole hell of a lot of indicators pointing to why we should have topped, even it “appears” we are still one wiggle shy…

    Skål!

  • ropey

    Sorry to be a pain guys, several people are calling for another gap fill ~1108-1080 – i am all for a run to there but i cannot see this on any charts. Prophet, TOS or otherwise, i have made sure all settings are correct i.e. extended hours aren't showing and so forth..what am i missing?

    Here it is called out quite clearly.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF1ufbQocIM&feat

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i neede a nice laugh, this did it

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Have you read the “tutorial?” Like a good Native American {that is politically correct right?:-P} it “senses” subtle (and not-so subtle) market internals as they are about to turn. It is only taking long trades at the moment, as the manipulation is obviously geared to the upside. We don't need to get into the real nitty-gritty of it, just so long as it is working (which it is) we have to trust the rules upon which it trades (even if we don't understand them, and yes, I know that would make it easier than just relying on Native American spirits to guide us). Some of us don't need to explain god, we just know there are higher powers at work. Make sense?

    Skål!

  • reddragonleo

    Ropey,

    I can't find any chart showing it, but I'm sure it's there. “Trust in the force Luke” Trade with your blinders on!

  • intriskman

    Mole,

    Right down your ally: http://www.chrismartenson.com/martensoninsider/

    I thought this would be fitting since you introduced me to Fed POMO and its relationship to equities

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Well said Grim. Have you done anything with the solar flare frequency? Another interesting astronomical aspect that very few traders know or care about.

    Aside from Mercury, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and the comet Chiron, are all in an AMAZING astrological conjunction/opposition. The Jupiter, Uranus, Chiron conjunction is said to be “healing” or a harbinger of good times. This alignment should have come into play about April (if I remember correctly). While the Saturn, Jupiter opposition (negative influence) was more predominant in June/July (market decline?). The Saturn, Jupiter opposition is now back in force after taking a slight hiatus. Negative mood should begin to “seep” back into people. Quite interesting.

    Kudos to you, and +1!

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Don't know how it works on crack-smoking bulls, but we can guess what will happen to the crack-blowing bulls in this pic…

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads

    (Thanks Barry, talk about a LAUGH!)

    Skål!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    did not know Madoff was Chinese

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Somebody ate too many POMO funds for dinner and it upset their poor tummy…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    He's not, the Chinese just felt the need to ream him too… Can we blame them? I can't get over his horns personally….

    Skål!

  • Keirsten

    I believe Charles Nenner follows solar flares. There is an ex-NASA scientist who has done studies on sun flares and the stock market. I'd have to Google it to find it again.

    And with that.. g'nite to all of you traders.

  • reddragonleo

    Good night K… don't do drugs! Just say NO to going long! Heh Heh!

  • reddragonleo

    Too funny!

  • TheCrowe

    ESBoard,
    Is anyone willing to discuss how they find signals for trades? I'm putting in 4-6 hours a day reading charts and developing my money management skills as they pertain to trading, but I'd like to invest some of that time in finding efficient ways to apply these skills.

    Thanks!
    Richard

  • Keirsten

    bshah- I could swear I saw a question from you to me earlier, but I can't find it now, RE: DECK. Pull out a daily chart and go back a full 9 months to see why the price stopped where it did today. Think resistance. I can't tell you how to enter/exit a trade- we all have different criteria based on risk appetite, etc. You might also want to draw a channel on that chart connecting the lows in March/May/Sept (if memory serves me.) I am not using any of the indicators right now because in all honesty, to trade from those these past few months would have been suicidal. Price/Time.. that's all you really need. G/L with whatever you do. I'm going to have to be a bit quiet for the next several days as I have company in town, but I'm sure any of the other well honed traders here can pitch in with you if you need help. 😉

  • Keirsten

    Heh heh! You guys go get 'em tomorrow. That's all I ask. Focus/concentrate/tune out the background noise and trade like a machine. Like I told you all last week.. we're looking at the opportunity of a lifetime, so make sure you grab it and don't let go. 😉

  • Tronacate

    Hey gun nutz……wahts happenin

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I have a book titled something like “New Technical Analysis.” In that is does a lot on time proportions and has a nice chapter on solar flare frequency. It was pretty interesting, but it gets me laughed out of most trading conversations. I just keep laughing right to the bank.

    Again, as Modest Mouse says, “Laugh hard, it's a long way to the bank!” Oh, and I do!

    Skål!

  • Keirsten

    Like I always say, my mind is open.. like a piece of Swiss cheese. Charles Nenner laughs all the way to the bank, and then some. Trade well tomorrow, Berk. You won't have me to kick around much. LOL 😉

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks Chica, if I make a third of what I did today, I will be ecstatic. Have a great night.

    Skål!

  • nakedoptions

    Anyone think it could be this simple?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/nakedoptions78/

  • Tronacate

    How's the solar flare cycle line up with Kondrakrieff wave cycles?…..similar?

  • Joe8888

    Article:

    While the Case Shiller index may have come in much better than expected, the index was still 13.3% down from a year ago, though much better than last month when it came in at 15.4% year over year.

    I am not even going to try and reconcile why the Case Shiller report came in so much better than the other housing reports this month. I have grown weary of looking for a light at the end of the housing tunnel.

    Here is what was reported on Bloomberg’s web site, though:

    Combined sales of new and existing homes have risen for four out of the last five months, signaling the worst of the housing crisis is over.

    The Obama administration’s $8,000 tax credit for first- time buyers, which is due to expire at the end of November, combined with lower prices as foreclosures soared, have helped lift sales this year. The National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders have lobbied to extend the credit on concern demand will wane after it lapses.

    Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index, said the U.S. residential property market is improving enough to end the tax credit for first-time buyers.

    “ We’ve got to phase back incentives and this may be a good time to do that,” Case said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “I believe in some cities you’ll see the beginning of recovery.”

    There are so many gems in these few paragraphs I don’t now where to start.

    First consider that someone feels that while housing prices are at record lows and fire sales occurring in every neighborhood in the country, since the sales numbers have risen in four of the last five months that the worst of the housing crisis is over. Not “may be over” but “is over”.

    Over 50% of these sales have been distressed properties, either transferred to a new owner through a short sale or via a foreclosure proceeding. These kind of sales numbers are not indicative of a housing rebound.

    And the other 50% of the homes are probably latent housing demand brought forward by the previously aforementioned $8000 tax credit for first-time buyers, due to expire in November. Since it takes at least 60-days to close on a home, that carrot will be gone in a day or two.

    The mere fact that there is a huge lobby to extend this tax credit should suffice to discredit the positive glow in this Case Shiller report. Anyone with a thinking head on their shoulders knows that without a significant on-going incentive, these sales numbers are going to fall like a rock.

    Yet Mr. Case has big enough onions to declare that “We’ve got to phase back incentives and this may be a good time to do that,” and “I believe in some cities you’ll see the beginning of recovery.”

    Is he hoping for another crisis?

    I have a friend in my neighborhood who recently lost her husband and does not have sufficient income to keep her house. She has a jumbo loan which is terribly underwater. Some homes in the area have lost close to 50% of their original mortgage values.

    The bank sent her a notice of default and began foreclosure proceedings over a year ago, but her attorney has advised her to remain in the home until foreclosure is forced to completion or the bank chooses to evict. Her financial world has collapsed and she is close to filing bankruptcy.

    She has continued to live in the home for well over a year paying no rent or mortgage payment while the bank sits on the foreclosure proceedings, privately informing her attorney that they prefer that she remain in the home since she is taking good care of the property.

    How many homes are there like this in the country, where foreclosure is supposedly imminent but banks prefer to do nothing about it, even though the loan is not being serviced at all? I fear there are a huge number and a lot more to be added when many of these variable rate loans reset in the next several months.

    I don’t believe this Case Shiller housing bottom spin at all

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    First up… Major points for developing money management skills FIRST!

    Before you can just start looking for signals, you need to know your style. Do you want to trade reversals, or break-outs? Continuation patterns, etc? Are you going to trade stock, options, futures, FX, commodities?

    Once you have answered those questions we can move on to what type of indicators or drawing should be used. Lotsa folks here are real fond of channels (I personally hate a plain channel, but will trade a regression channel all day long). Trendlines (TL) are the most basic tool for generating signals (though with any drawing you must know where to start and end them properly to do any good). I think just about all of us here use some sort of Fibonacci tool (be it fans, extensions, retracements, or circles) since Fibonacci IS the governor of growth and death cycles. There are a few more options, but I sense you head already swelling with information, so I will move on.

    Then we have our wonderful indicators. Aside from the proprietary indicators some of us are using, MACD, Stochastics, RSI, moving averages, volume, CCI, DMI, Bollinger bands and ATR are probably the most commonly used indicators. Slowly start looking at these in conjunction with what you have determined will be your trading style, and see which of these plays best into that style.

    Don't use too many indicators and drawings or you will get the dreaded “analysis paralysis” otherwise known as TMI. The KISS principle works really well here.

    Each of us trades a different style based on different rules and indicators, and you shouldn't try to mimic any one person (unless their trading style aligns perfectly with yours) however, we can all learn by working piece-mail of other styles into ours (as applicable).

    I don't want to give you analysis paralysis right now, so I will just leave it at that. Keep plugging away until you find what works best for you. Only that way will you truly find the best way for you to trade.

    Hope that helped and didn't hinder.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Honestly, haven't put those two into conjunction. Perhaps I have a project if the market is slow tomorrow. Interesting insight there.

    I'll let you know what I find.

    Skål!

  • dollar

    Delayed Foreclosures Stalk Market
    As of July, mortgage companies hadn't begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn't yet acquired the property. The figures don't include home-equity loans and other second mortgages

    Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn't made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn't begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren't in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125366552480532

  • ACJ

    Brownshirts are in Montana…..

  • dollar

    Banks Sitting on Huge Amounts of Toxic Mortgage Assets
    When banks don’t follow through on home foreclosure proceedings they retain a non performing loan on their books. Yet under new accounting rules they can show the value of the questionable asset at a mark to model evaluation. How crazy is that? To permit banks to carry toxic assets at near full original value while they dream that value will somehow be restored is a recipe for total disaster.
    http://longcrisis.com/banks-sitting-on-huge-amo

  • Huggybear

    Speculators have jumped back into the game, only to get burned once again. Several possible reasons why the home price index ticked up:

    1. Median price went up as prime borrowers defaulted and had their foreclosed homes auctioned or short sold. The average option arm mortgage was for a much higher amount than subprime loans
    2. Seasonality
    3. Early speculators jumping back in assuming that the bottom is in
    4. First time homebuyer credit pulling ahead demand and creating more buyers
    5. Banks sitting on shadow inventory (as you mention with your neighbor friend – this is becoming more common)

    The wave of option arm and Alt A recasts/resets are just starting to accelerate now, at the same time as many people who have those mortgages are losing their jobs, getting their pay cut or hours reduced. There are now an estimated 7 million empty single family homes either on the market or as REO's that are being held in shadow inventory and the peak of Opt. arm recasts doesn't even hit until Jan 2011!

    The bottom is still over a year away, and maybe several years away! Green shoots my a**

  • dollar

    What’s the real reason that banks aren’t foreclosing?
    Banks make more money by NOT foreclosing on homes. Banks are dragging out the foreclosure process for their own selfish reasons. Until the day they foreclose, the amount of money owed to them is an asset…sure, it’s an asset that isn’t paying interest payments…but it is still an asset. The day they foreclose, a $400,000 asset could become a $150,000 asset and a $250,000 loss.

    Multiply that loss by 10, 20, or even 30 times leverage and there are several million dollars worth of new loans that the bank can’t make.
    http://housingstorm.com/2009/09/whats-the-real-

  • molecool

    🙂

    Good to have you back mate – seriously….

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks mate. You know I do my best to keep everyone in line (while giving them a rile).

    Skål!

  • Joe8888

    Daily Chart Of the UUP,,,,,At a resistance Level open gap window,,,,it may suggest a little pullback
    in the USD,Which then may suggest a little Pop,in the Markets….short term…..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • AS2009

    Great post Berk … very helpful for those of us who are relatively new to this aka experience in months vs years …

    One of the things that I also heard about is %R – what is this and how reliable ?

  • Joe8888

    If Bank Foreclose on a Property,they now assume to bad dept,in there books,

    If they delay and do not ! Foreclose,they can give this false impression, that things
    might be getting better,cause Foreclosures are slowing…when they really are just being ignored.

    It's all Smoke n Mirrors,

  • Offtimer

    That is a splendid idea lets have a breakout and forget about the pullback.

  • dullmind

    Beyond the cat food eaters, FEMA and other evacuation groups have found people will
    stay in the face of a hurricane if they can’t take their pets with them. Some have died to
    save their pets. I have no doubt that you saw a lot of abandoned strays during the first
    decline, many think of their pets like a chair, in the way, its gone. But there is a large
    group that are as willing to abandon their pets as they most would be willing to abandon
    their kids, ie never. They won’t stop until its really is down the their VERY last dollar, some
    will starve to keep their pets fed. Insane, but that’s the world we live in. So what does
    this have do with equities, ummmmmmmmmmm………

  • Joe8888

    I am with you on that one,,,,Lets get this Party started….

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Not one of the things that I use personally, so I can't give much insight. But this might be able to help….

    http://www.prophet.net/learn/taglossary.jsp?ind

    Scroll down towards the bottom, and it will give you a nice summary. As for reliability, you will have to fill me in on that… 😛

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    For learning about technical indicators, and how (and why) they function, check out this sight.

    http://www.prophet.net/learn/taglossary.jsp

    Spent many a night falling asleep at the computer to this sight…

    Skål!

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    http://www.themoneymasters.com/

    The Central bankers' Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in 1988 in the “Basel I” regulations imposed an 8% capital reserve standard on member central banks. This almost immediately threw Japan into a 15 year economic depression. In 2004 Basel II imposed “mark to the market” capital valuation standards that required international banks to revalue their reserves according to changing market valuations (such as falling home or stock prices). The US implemented those standards in November, 2007. In December 2007 the US stock market collapsed and credit began drying up as banks withheld loans to comply with the 8% capital requirement as collateral valuations began to drop. The snowball effect of tightening credit, which reduces economic activity and values further, which resulted in further tightening of credit, etc., has produced a worldwide depression which is worsening. Do not be fooled. It is not getting better.

    Those capital standards have not been relaxed despite the crushing effects on the world economy* the credit contraction it requires has caused. Why? Because:

    “The purpose of this financial crisis is to take down the U.S. dollar as the stable datum of planetary finance and, in the midst of the resulting confusion, put in its place a Global Monetary Authority [GMA – run directly by international bankers freed of any government control] -a planetary financial control organization” – Bruce Wiseman

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/BYnUBXW8Ub

    Possible H&S on Euro / USD, if true, would cause drop in ES also—assuming correlations continue. But this pattern is small, so please don't go Gonzo Bear. In fact Euro could also rally above its trendline.

    I think it was Keirsten pointing out numerous failed H&S on the EUR/USD

  • standard_and_poor

    Evening Ratz. I GOT A FEVER, AND THE ONLY PRESCRIPTION IS COW BELL.

  • Keirsten

    Don't do it! (here he goes anyway)

  • standard_and_poor
  • standard_and_poor

    ; )

  • standard_and_poor

    Beautiful analysis.+1

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • standard_and_poor

    Good night rats.

  • MariAroma

    . . . about GeoMagnetic Storms. Link is for a study by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta researchers concluding that stock market returns are higher than “average” for six days after such high activity hits earth. Do you think they can be trusted?
    http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0305
    . . . this is a study based on DATA, adjusting for sunshine, sunspots, seasonal, Mondays, Tax days, etc. Connection not known, but theory is that GeoMagnetic Storms negatively affect human psychology, borne out by increased hospital admissions (double) for depressive illnesses, heart problems, etc.
    . . . they suggest if you're looking to buy, you might do it during a “low” period the first six calendar days after a major GeoMagnetic Storm or if you must sell, during a “quiet” period such as we're having now.

    Here's a link to a paid forecast — I've been following the “free” updates after the fact. His market calls have been very good for swing trading. And I believe they are based on the earth's magnetic field. (You may have seen his ads on CNBC.)
    http://xyber9.com/Xyber9/AllForecasts.aspx?Fore

  • Keirsten

    Since my company seems to have mega jet lag, one bad deed deserve another… more cowbell for you

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUTqa5cjOS0

  • standard_and_poor

    You got it.

  • grednfer

    Yes…….just looking for a break in the trend……the current fight looks to be over the 61 fib on the 2yr. And yes…..I think this is “bear-ly” on your chart, the up-trend remains intact even at the 1.45 level.

  • Offtimer

    I had this long spiel about the missing 2 trillion dollars and how the government has it all invested in equities, but Disqus ate it. They essentially own 2/3 of the market now. The total US stock equity valuation is at 3.5 trillion according to Bloomberg this weekend and I think this amount is too low. The bottom line is that our government controlls the stock market. That is why TA volume and price are in such disarray. Shorts will burn if the government owns cotrolling interest in most companies. GL

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I am out of my short position, for now. Will sell on weakness.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    For many banks there is no choice. With so many homes under water, if they marked to market their entire residential mortagage portfolios they'd immediately be insolvent, and the FDIC would be called in. (Unless of course you are big like Citi or BAC. Then you get to keep your logo on the door courtesy of a taxpayer bailout.)

    So with the mark to model accounting rules in effect, when the outstanding loan amount is much greater than the current market price, banks can avoid recognizing the loss by simply sitting on the foreclosure. (The banks will foreclose on delinquent mortgages where the outstanding loan amount is less than or in the ballpark of the current market price.)

    The other thing about under water mortgages is that the borrower signed a promissory note and is technically on the hook for that loss until the bank forecloses.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'm not even sure if the treasury still offers them. Haha the core of my trading account margin is secured by shares of the TIP ETF. Something with a little more kick to it than “the risk-free asset” (cash). If TIPs or the Treasury markets in general ever implode, then my account is likely blown out and I'm done for. 😉

    To gauge the expected inflation rate, what you look at is not money flows, but rather the difference between regular Treasury note yields at some maturity and the TIP yields at the same maturity. The Atlanta Fed does that every month, most recent chart is here:

    http://www.frbatlanta.org/FH_invoke.cfm?objecti

    Currently the expected “breakeven” inflation rate over 5 years is 1.35%, over 10 years is 1.83%, and you can see how those expectations varied during the financial crisis. If you think that inflation over the next 5 years will exceed 1.35%, buy TIPs.

  • TheCrowe

    Just getting up and am happy to see a response. Thanks for the suggestions and sites! I'll start digging in. Good luck to you,
    Richard

  • bshah

    Keirsten,
    Thank you much.. .All I wanted to do is highlight that chart you drew on previous post and make aware fellow traders here that we have touched the line again…and withdrew from it..Also wanted to see if I can think in same direction as you guys are.. Does not have to be ditto, but I want to start…as I am learning all this. I drew a channel and understand that if it breaks there is a good chance.. Y'day I was also looking at Price Channel and read that if it breaks through upper channel then still +ve trend, but if it stays within a sign of still the same or reversal.. So, I wanted to get some other perspective from few experts here.. But thanks a bunch for remembering me… and my post..

  • TheCrowe

    Just getting up and am happy to see a response. Thanks for the suggestions and sites! I'll start digging in. Good luck to you,
    Richard

  • bshah

    Keirsten,
    Thank you much.. .All I wanted to do is highlight that chart you drew on previous post and make aware fellow traders here that we have touched the line again…and withdrew from it..Also wanted to see if I can think in same direction as you guys are.. Does not have to be ditto, but I want to start…as I am learning all this. I drew a channel and understand that if it breaks there is a good chance.. Y'day I was also looking at Price Channel and read that if it breaks through upper channel then still +ve trend, but if it stays within a sign of still the same or reversal.. So, I wanted to get some other perspective from few experts here.. But thanks a bunch for remembering me… and my post..