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Tough Choice
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Tough Choice

by The MoleOctober 9, 2009

Tonight I find myself between a rock and a hard place. The wave count right now appars quite clear – we seem to have completed an {a}-{b}-{c} and are now completing Minor C of Intermediate (Y) of Primary {2} – this scenario is marked in orange labels on the chart:

However, it just looks too easy and smells like a big trap for the bulls. All the momentum indicators suggest that we should be dropping but in contrast the NYSE A/D ratio was pretty bullish in the past few days – nothing really makes sense, as it should close to the peak of a bear market rally.

Personally, I myself do not feel confident about any of the bearish scenarios that are floating around out in the EWT blogosphere, but I do recognize the potential that, wave count be damned, we might just suddenly drop tomorrow. I usually never do this but tonight I decided to also show Steven Hochberg’s counts (he’s the author of the Short Term Update and resident editor at EWI) – his is labeled in blue. Basically Steven prognosticates that we painted a flat after the September 25 low, which completed today and that would mean that we’re now ready to drop into a long third wave. So, his count would be that we are in Minute {ii} of Minor 1 of Intermediate (1) of Primary wave {3}.

I deeply respect Steven and it pains me to say this, but I think his count is a stretch at best. Also, the Dollar’s drop today did not help the bearish cause and I have a hard time believing that this market will turn before the Dollar finds at least a temporary floor – thus far the wave pattern on the ole’ buck looks incomplete and we could easily drop below 75 before we finally push into a meaningful rally.

There is a third scenario which I didn’t paint on this chart as I didn’t want to spoil your breakfast. That one assumes that the drop to 1019.95 was another (X) and that we are about to paint another A-B-C. Yes, that’s right – very bullish – and we would basically be lifted into the stratosphere. But at this point this scenario is sci-fi – but it’s worthwhile mentioning.

Here are the good news: In regards to Orange vs. Blue we should know very soon – perhaps even by tomorrow. On the chart above I have pointed out the confirmation lines for each scenario. As you can see the orange doesn’t have that far to go.

Finally, I have a bid of bad news of you stainless steel rats. I’m going to be gone on a business trip again – this time starting Monday night all the way through Thursday night. Which means I will not be blogging (much) – Berk will hold the fort and poke in every once in a while to make sure you guys don’t get too rowdy. We all love his charts and I’m sure by the end of the week you won’t even remember who that Mole character is. As General Charles DeGaulle once remarked: The graveyards are full of indispensable men.

See you on the other side.

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • molecool

    No politics – I mean it.

  • MariAroma

    Mole, Can you tell us what the business is you started in San Diego?

  • vardoger

    Yeah, wtf. I was hesitant to post that but given the news about troop enhancements, wave 3 possibly looming and my experience in the marines I wanted to share some insight. Should have expected moonbat shit, my bad.

    Anyways, I agree no “safe” position here with options. I like that ED on dollar very much though. I think that when it breaks the upper boundary trendline could be a high prob signal to get short equities with confidence.

  • standard_and_poor

    Brothers and sisters here's “Moonlight Mile” by the rolling stoners: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugYzDqQtdHU

    Currently 25% long, will increase long exposure to at least 60% on an dips
    during Friday with small and midcap individual stocks.

    Have a great night/day!

    p.s. Will go apeshit long when 2142 on nasdaq breaks.

  • malusDiaz

    Thank you for the update!

    I'm personally falling in love with the moving averages of all sorts, i've got a lot more to learn, but as of right now, they are all over the place, not showing much upward movement.

    Another bit is that the averages are right below us:

    1057 -56 – 52-50 – 40 – 25

    and its all messed up: especially because we touched that lower band (IMNSHO)

    http://screencast.com/t/yYYlqWwJEb

  • SpeedSkt1

    good chart…….hope you're able to keep abreast of the trading next week…….it should be an interesting one with earnings season kicking off……

  • vardoger

    Wow, Shanghai finally open and up 4.2% on the session

  • Tronacate

    I apologize to you and everyone else…….that got out of hand. I'll stick to music and trading.

  • romeobravo

    I believe Shanghai is up so strongly is that they were closed for several days due to a holiday and are “catching” up to the rest of the world markets the last few days.

  • raised_by_wolves

    If Mole says “no” or simply doesn't reply, what should we infer?

  • vardoger

    Making up for lost time in the casino. That's a BIG move in one session, likely to all come off just as quickly at some point IMHO

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Joe8888 – here some more on Crude http://bit.ly/bZhnd

  • humble1 ™

    would someone(s) please post a link or explain the target price of SPX 1121? i am look for the e-wave count and other system hits. i realize it is the 50% retrace, and that is powerful in itself.

    i ask this because of the following:

    i work on Time/Price possibilities. i have one of those at SPX 1121 very near oct opex, maybe mid week. i trade the daily spx bars and that would be something i would try to reverse long to short.

    tia!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no rap please… I mean it

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Did not he post the picture of that bushy massage parlor? “The Mole's Hole”?

  • vardoger

    Privacy?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Stainless Steel Chicken posted in the middle of September on the mass resistance that is/was at 1121.

    http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/2009/

  • PRSGuitars

    For Dullmind, reposting here:

    ———

    Ha! Thanks buddy, that means a lot. I don't take anything negatively — its all in jest (and let's be honest, my charts have a LOT of lines – like, WAY too many).

    First things first. In TOS' Prophet charts package I have selected the whole set of channel lines (25, 50, and 75%) from the customize channel feature. This produces the full set of 'relevancy' lines, ie, the more hits/respect it shows, the more likely I am to keep it.

    Furthermore I often perform my 133.3% extension (via synthetic — moving the new channel's 75% line to the 100% line of the old channel) whenever a channel has proven its significance.

    Review:
    Part 1: http://screencast.com/t/Q3yzJOsVZpM
    Part 2: http://screencast.com/t/7cE6dZuiPK5

    Now that I've accumulated a variety of channels + channel extensions, its hard to sort through them and decide which are still legit targets (for future reference). I HAVE begun to reduce opacity/line weight on channels out of reach and/or less significant, as that allows me to 'save' them without obstructing view as much.

    I am almost always looking at the 60min, 60day chart in prophet charts. TOS charts lines are more prone to distortion so I tend to rely on TOS for quick screens and Prophet for longer term scans. Thus they are usually intraday lines …

    Ex: http://screencast.com/t/h8hhq87C

    Aaaaand my latest, 133.3% extension refining on /NQ futures –http://screencast.com/t/GppsiCqJ00

    Currently watching — $DJT for its 133.3 of 133.3 extension of and extension — http://screencast.com/t/6CptOOlO
    and an updated chart – http://screencast.com/t/VYsGB9aGSalV for reference — and will see how it plays tomorrow. NQ has already completed its target and blew its brains out this afternoon.

    I am also noticing a lot of 150% extensions of channels now, too. This worries me — seems to make extensions of channels appear more random (as though I should just stick fib retraces and extensions on all my channels, which will REALLY make my screen a mess…). Will update if i see anything else. Good hunting!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Who is “Mole” Berk keeps taking about in this post?

  • Trader_Steve

    No commie talk…I mean it too!

    Steve

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    OoooK… 🙁
    I am going to my Red Corner now 🙁

  • dullmind

    Thanks, yes I read your post before on the 133% extension. My personal thought is that the regular
    lines are seen by the market makers, thus they try to 'throw over' the trend channels to bust out retail
    investor's stops. But there is a real trend change and their 'games' can only go on so long. Sigh….
    but soon they might start moving the market farther to fake out the 133% extension users, arggggg.

    Now I know how you get such dense charts. Wish StockCharts.com had the ability to draw channels
    like that, too much work to draw channels like that at the current time, never mind the 133% extensions.
    On some of my denser charts I too use varying opacity/line weights to keep my charts readable.

    Keep them coming, and finally to say it again, I REALLY appreciate the extra time you take to add
    the big arrows, helps us all know which lines to pay attention to, without them too likely for one to get
    lost. You don't need them, you know which lines you are watching, but they help the rest of us get
    up to speed.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I would hate/love if Mole and Berk pulled a switcheroo. It would have to be convincing. However, I don't think Berk could pull it off (unless Berk is another persona of the man behind Mole which I doubt).

  • tradejane

    Chinese stock market is like an old grisly bear these days, making big tracks but going nowhere.

  • PRSGuitars

    You got it, man. I have no blog, no desire for popularity or credit — just want to see if I can give something back to those from whom I've learned so much.

    I will do everything I can to make the charts digestible. Highlighting and adding large arrows isn't hard, it just takes a bit of consideration as to how to convey such a ridiculously dense (visual) display.

    You should really sign up for Thinkorswim — free for a papermoney account with access to their whole charting platform. A+. Combined with Jing (aka Screencast.com) for sharing and you're good to go…

  • raised_by_wolves

    !

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    regarding TOS + Jing
    few bloggers need to start paying attention to this now – I know of emails stating that charts cannot be published on blogs

    https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayPage.tos

    Copyright

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    You may use the thinkorswim trading software and Content online and solely for your personal, limited commercial use as authorized by thinkorswim, and you may download the trading software and download or print a single copy of any portion of the Content for your personal, limited commercial use as authorized by thinkorswim, provided you do not remove any trademark, copyright or other notice contained in such Content. No other use is permitted. You may not, for example, republish the Content on any Internet, Intranet or Extranet site or incorporate the Content in any database, compilation, archive or cache. You may not distribute any of the Content to others, whether or not for payment or other consideration, and you may not modify, copy, frame, reproduce, sell, publish, transmit, display or otherwise use any portion of the Content without the written consent of thinkorswim.

    Requests to use the Content for any purpose other than as permitted in this paragraph should be directed to help@thinkorswim.com. In certain cases, you may be able to obtain a license to use Content that appears on thinkorswim.com through an online vendor we have specifically designated as authorized to license Content on our behalf. If we have authorized a third party vendor to grant you a license to any Content, we will tell you that directly in the portion of the Content you may license. If you do not see our express authorization, you should assume no third party has the right to allow you to use the Content.

  • PRSGuitars

    That is goddamn ridiculous. As someone who doesn't receive a dime from my charting, but rather, from my TRADING — and as a community-driven brokerage like TOS — that's just crazy.

    It makes sense, but it doesnt… you know? Like I can understand it, I just can't believe it. Hideous that this is the difficulty with transferring ideas in the modern age . . .

  • http://www.gamingthemarket.com/ gamingthemarket

    Mole, I saw this Phil Hartman audition tape and his Gunther Johan made laugh so hard. I thought you might get a kick out of it:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQIlGpOVY5E

  • johnthebearmonster

    I've only posted once before and on a serious note the long term reverse head and shoulders patterns that are playing out and are all in tact have these upside target SPX 1252, DJI 11265, FTSE100 5468…. the neck line on the DOW as of today is around 8700 on the S&P its at 966……whether we bears like it or not head and soulders and reverse head and shoulders patterns are two of the most trusted market reversal indicators. When the reverse head and shoulders patterns played out from March 2002 look how high the markets went and exactly seven years later the same thing is happening….the fundamentals are different but the same stupid market ramping, bullish bullshit lies and papering over the cracks games are still going on with the same dangerous consequences…..I am a bear but its been wrong ever since the SPX closed above 950 except for scalping clever rotation and taking your money and running. Only a close below 1016 and perhaps 1010 negates the bull run but only a break of the neckline on these patterns says its BEAR TIME …..when you believe with all your heart and mind that we will absolutely and definitely come crashing down and i have no doubt 813 SPX will be revisited its hard knowing that you might have to see 1252 and GOD knows what afterwards first before the truth reveals itself…..I wish you all well

  • dullmind

    Dumb, every client generated chart published is an advertisement for TOS. They are cutting off
    their own customers. P2 peek in Greed? Notice they won't even tell you what they want so you
    can submit your own charts to blogs. Probably afraid of the screaming if they did.

  • Trader_Steve

    I thought you were headed to Bermuda this afternoon!

    Steve

  • PRSGuitars

    I will be LIVID on the phone w/Sosnoff if they try to pull this stuff on us. There is nothing more democratic than the sharing of information that THEY FREELY PROVIDE VIA A TOS PAPERMONEY ACCOUNT SIGNUP. Blah.

    I'm literally sick to my stomach about the possibilities. Trading blogs are largely-TOS-based, I do believe, so this would be quite a ridiculous stab to the heart of the community if it were enforced.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    did not make sense to me, but I got foreworned … and if you noticed I don't post TOS snapshots anymore
    welcome to Ameritrade

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Friday night…just trying to make myself start hating charts for a week ahead 🙂

  • tradejane

    Mole,

    I'm relieved to see you post a chart with a bearish scenario, even though it feels like quite a stretch for you at the moment. Charts with just *one* scenario on them have a tendency of making me deeply uncomfortable. 😉

    The DAX is poised to open below the pivot of 5.703,73 in a few and the tea-leaves are telling me that SRS is headed to $11 again. (I flunked Geometry.)

  • PRSGuitars

    Chaos. Thanks for the heads up — bring it on, I'm a noname with no blog to speak of. That just makes no sense to target people like us!

  • Trader_Steve

    >>whether we bears like it or not head and soulders and reverse head and shoulders patterns are two of the most trusted market reversal indicators.<<

    I think the odds are 93% once well formed. Somewhere around the low 900s it broke the H&S neckline and then they refused to let it go. Welcome to being “gamed” where TA works…if you go long.

    Steve

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it is al well and true untill… they will ge tto “you” with high priced attorneys
    tell it to Dan whose blog was shut down for being named “DailyDeMark” (which was a really stupid name on the first place which I agree with – makes it sound like an “official” DeMark site)

  • Trader_Steve

    As much as I want this market down, I was informed that EWI is also looking at that blue scenario above with the elongated irreegular count. I want it to happen. But IMO, it's not going to do it with an a-b-c down that holds the log trendline and gets part of it used to label an elongated irregular.

    Could we have a failed 5th instead? Perhaps….but that's very little time for it and an ED wouldd sure have been nicer. I'm still 25% short in case world events bring on the inevitable. But I'm not putting much faith in the blue scenario for Friday. I wil, take a key reversal though.

    The last time I saw any market do this run, and the only time, was when the Hunt Brothers legitimately manipulated and cornered the silver mkt up to $50 and they dragged gold up to $850 and made many millionaires. I know a few who declared bankruptcy when they charged the rules overnight that prevented new positions in the front month (all activity was there) and the Hunt Brothers got buried.

    Anyone going to anounce no new stock buying allowed? (crickets chirping)

    Steve

  • PRSGuitars

    BERK! 3:00 am EST time pivot right into a dip setup. Way outside 2.0 vwap bands too. Didn't know it'd blow through vwap though — even though it gave a 1.5 pt away from vwap trade, too — but that's a ripper, and EUR isn't even moving much yet… jeez…

    http://screencast.com/t/uq9ifPz6Qfc

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    TOS is no longer TOS, it is Ameritrade….expect the worst.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    The Chinese are highly gambling people. Hard working, smart, hard gambling.

  • tradejane

    I know, that's why I no longer use logic when trading.

  • evil_bear

    who….who is mole?…;-) cool charts mole

  • ultrabear

    Cheers, Mole. Hopefully your absence will have the required “gmak” effect.

    I as much as anyone would love us to drop right from here, but I just can't see an impulsive count on the 1 min from the top yesterday. It just broke down into a sideways chop like has been seen everytime the US$ attempts to find its punch-drunk legs.

    I know it's probably bad form to link to another blog, but this post from Dan is priceless – a brief overview of the carnage at this point – worth reading for anyone who wants a laugh or is beginning to doubt their own sanity:

    “Fannie and Freddie. Sounds like a slut and her pimp.”

    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/1

  • john_matrix

    good post

  • john_matrix

    could it be we go niether blue or orange mole and just step sideways for a few days

  • PRSGuitars

    Seems to me like bulls must be just as frustrated with this tape as bears lately. Anyone with a position can't use stops or they're gonna get worked in globex… crazy spikes!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    you woke me up…don't you people ever sleep?
    where are you? Hawaii?

  • PRSGuitars

    Cincinnati! Insane, i know. 530 am. Sleep for 3-4 hrs now.

  • tradejane

    Come to Europe, then you too can enjoy 14-hour trading days and actually go to bed at a decent hour. 🙂

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    careful, only go ape-shitlong if nsdaq sustains a new high

  • Styrfart

    LoL, Obama to recive the Nobel peace price, in Oslo! What's wrong with our Norwegian brothers?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    what has he done?

    or maybe this is all an attempt to make a fast clone of Carter

    either way a nobel prize is worth at least +100 points on the s&_p because…why?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    You are joking? His only achievement is he is not an unemployed white male?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    South America would be in the middle timewise (may be not – I am geographically challenged)

  • ultrabear

    Fucking hilarious.

    You gotta hand it to the elite – they have a sense of humour – Tony Blair as Middle East Peace Envoy – another golden classic.

  • ultrabear

    Mmm – just come back from 8 months travelling there and already seriously considering returning – Colombia is niiiiiiice

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    send him to iraq… or afganistan, without an escort

    then he'd rest in peace

  • Styrfart

    David, sadly not! http://nobelprize.org/ We are joking about this in Sweden! It's a bribe, to get oil concession's for Statoil, the state norweigan oil company! 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Still better than be Time Magazine Man of the year Adolf once was…

  • tradejane

    I guess it depends which markets you'd want to trade. Germany is just fine if you want to trade Europe and the US. My brain only starts working at 3-4 pm anyway, if at all. 🙂

  • ultrabear

    Really??? Good lord. Well he certainly was a man of vision. Just not a very nice one…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    obama hasn't been time's man of the tear yet? (stoped buying that shitty mag 15 years ago)

  • jaxon

    If any EW folks missed this yesterday, please do this little exercise then look at the attached chart. Divide 1080.15 by 666.79. Pencils down. What did you come up with? Look familiar?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/r59ebhlU2Gqw

    The ratio analysis on the above chart is more than a little compelling. IF 1080.15 is not the top we are so close it doesn't matter.

  • Styrfart

    The history behind, why Alfred Nobel appointed a norweigan board was that Sweden and Norway was in a Union, and it was a bad marriage! But of some reason, the got to keep it! And o'boy what a great jobb they been doing, for ex Arrafat!

  • ultrabear

    Yep, has been duly noted. If you check the time ratio it comes out to .382 as well. Woo.

  • jaxon

    as for Obama and the Nobel Prize, does anyone remember the name Neville Chamberlain. he should have won the Nobel Prize as well. look what his peace efforts wrought.

    if nothing else, life is ironic.

  • ultrabear

    Man of the tear? That doesn't sound good, whichever way you, er, slice it.

  • Styrfart

    TraderJane, on OMXS30 it's finance keeping the index in green! What's the best sector on DAX today?
    best R

  • Styrfart

    LoL, I think, that price is easy to at least be nominated to, by a lot of ladies! 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    point up

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I think BO for USA is just what Gorbachev was for Russia –
    broke everything to pieces, was unable to build, was thrown away – laughing in Montana

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    because they run out of other reasons to go up 100 points?

  • tradejane

    Financial services (like Deutsche Boerse) are doing ok today. Some consumer stocks like Adidas did well too.

    Commodity related stocks & utilities are getting clobbered with a big ugly red stick as well as my favorite bull$hit stock Commerzbank. Die bugger, die! 🙂 🙂

  • ultrabear

    Ah…… I see from the illustration it wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement then.

  • Styrfart

    thx jane! LoL – you're at CZ again! 🙂

  • jaxon

    odd. seems to me they would enjoy the free advertising. it's not like we're cashing in on the display. i think they should pay us for pushing them. the flip side, it just means we have to download and crop all their info out. another step. a lose lose proposition, dont'cha think?

  • jaxon

    one of the reasons i don't wear clothing with product print on them. why would i pay someone to advertise their product? because it's cool? puhleeze. give me a T with Corona Beer and maybe….on the other hand, perhaps not so much.

  • jaxon

    that's my thought. topping or bottoming is a process unless their is a serious catalyst. but i think once the forces change direction and clear the cliff edge………..look out Chick'n Li'l

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    naah, there are still a couple of reasons

    there was no nuclear war (another 200 points)

    temperature hasn't isen 10 degrees (another 200 points)

    a meteorite didn't destroy earth (worth at least 500 points)

    the blond at the corner is looking at me (what a rise!)

  • jaxon

    think of it like this…fear and greed stalemate. the triangle moving sideways, consolidating, coming to it's apex. i get hard just thinkin' about it.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    get a girlfriend fast, otherwise you'll be humping your screen real soon

  • jaxon

    LOL. i'm married with 7 kids. maybe you're right.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    7 kids?! let's see, the 87 crash, 1990, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008

    I guess a new one will be in the oven prety soon

    (no offense meant, just kidding)

  • jaxon

    no worries. i took care of my little problem. i think i missed contraception day in 6th grade health class.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Daily Range Projections Oct 9th ‘09 $SPX $ES_F $NDX $NQ_F http://bit.ly/PNAEi

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Oct 19th is a Monday this year too……so perhaps that's going to be the tipping point if it waits that long…..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for your analysis Mole. I am betting on the blue scenario due to decreasing volume across the board. And also youre going on a trip again. The market drops whenever you leave 😉

  • insite

    seems like a dangerous proposition since when volume is LIGHT, the market goes up……

  • TheKing

    Mole, thanks for your analysis. Very thoughtful. Appreciate it.

  • bergs

    Mole as always your analysis is top of the line.

    I think Hochberg has us in minuette (ii) not minute {ii} though?

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up
    If ever there was proof that the Nobe Peace Prize is a meaningless political sop in today's world, this it it. Obama has been awared that prize. I don't want to detract fromt the potential of the man, but what has he done in 200 days to promote world peace? Observing from afar, all I can say is that he is a very good orator – and that there are always some scary things behind any politician that comes out of Chicago. Now on to more interesting things involving money (and taking other peoples').

    I mean no disrespect to the Elliott Wavers, but I can't see the ocean for all the waves. IMO, it's a very simple situation. Earnings season is coming up. Markets tend to be choppy and sideways at that time. I hear lamenting and wailing and targets up in the 1100's and above, multiple scenarios and count revisions. It's simple.

    There is a long term trend line coming down from the SPX high that I call BIG YELLOW. Allowing for error of drawing, we effectively touched it yesterday. To me that says that the trend is down for a little while. Given that yesterday was Thursday before OPEX (and an up day), the market lore says that Monday and Tuesday combined should be red. I haven't seen any study on this – so if anyone has a link…..
    I'l try to find time this weekend to post the daily SPX chart again so that all can see. If we close above the trend line, and open the next day above, then I shift my view to more upside. But the market IS looking tired. It's only shell-shock that makes it look bullish to many bears.

    Equity
    Asia was mixed but Shanghai was up big (making up for lost time), and Nikkei go dragged along at up 1.87%;
    Europe is mixed with DAX flat, FTSE up, and CAC down – but all by small uncertain amounts.

    It looks like the Global misery index (conumer prices YoY, Jobless rate) has fallen in most countries – although I don't have any point of reference to say if the values are still high or not. I would assume so.

    FX
    USD is stronger after BenDover says the FED will be ready to tighten policy when the economy improves. The conclusion is either 1) Rates are going up soon because of green shoots (lol); or 2) The economy really isn't as good as everyone is pretending.
    Either way, both edges cut.
    CAD, JPY, EUR, and GBP are all weaker. The EUR was fell once Asia opened and then traded in a fairly loose range all night until Obama got his peace prize (joke!) at which point it took off to recapture the neutral pivot.

    EUR pivots:
    R2: 1.4899 – This would be an enormous surprise and would likely bring ECB guns to bear.
    R1: 1.4847 – ditto
    Neutral: 1.4765 – we've regained this level and are sitting on it. I don't expect it to hold – but then I haven't reviewed all the news yet.
    S1: 1.4713 – Too far down for today, IMHO. This was resistance on Oct 7 but got broken on the 8th.
    S2: 1.4631 – This was resistance on Oct 5.

    News
    Obama – blah blah bah – peace prize. WTF? Wonder who has the judges' pictures with little boys, girls, and horses.
    Summers is making noise again that the “New Normal” of slower growth is unacceptable. Here is a loose cannon on the deck of the ship.
    Canada added 30K jobs (that's like 300K in the US), When do the rates start to rise? Notice that this apparenty good economic news (if the numbers aren't fudged) led to a strengthening of the CAD – which is what you would expect. Wage growth slowed but was still at 2.5%, not too shabby. Mfg added 26K jobs – wonder if this is a Cash for clunkers effect? There was a 91.6K increase in full time jobs and a 61K decline in part time employment in September
    The strong Euro is hurting Finland.

    No money down loans are back in the UK housing market – file this under “Will they ever learn?”

    Data
    8:30 = Trade Balance -33B exp vs -32B prior (looks like an oil price adjustment). If this declines (in absolute amount), it means the US /exporting world circle jerk continues to shrink, leaving less USD for FCBs to buy Tbills with. An increase (to the negative side) means that the game can continue

    SPX
    I'll repeat. Overhead is a major trend line, which we effectively touched yesterday (allowing for crayon, fat thumbs drawing). I would expect us to pull back from it (even if the market is going to try to get over, it needs a run just like a pole vaulter).
    I also expect Monday /Tuesday to be a combined red (in total) based on yesterday's green candle (Thu before OPEX week). Still waiting for some kind of data to confirm this bit of Market Lore.
    The Bollinger bands have narrowd, but are pointing up on average. I will abandon my range-bound (big range from 1014 up to 1070) view for trading if we manage to close above the BIG YELLOW and open above the next day. But, I remain tainted by the expectation that this would be a head fake, an overthrow. To me, the market looks tired – even with all the MBS-purchase inspired leveraged USD trying to find a home in various asset markets.

    ES
    Ran up before the Europe opening (gotta love those momo traders). Got spanked when Europe opened. Been running sideways since then.
    Pivots:
    R2: 1075.42 – I know many expect us to see this soon, but not me, not yet. See BIG YELLOW.
    R1: 1069.58 – haven't seen this in a while either.
    Neutral: 1052 – acting as a floor right now, and did so before Europe opened.
    S1: 1055.58 – No comment
    S2: 1047.42 – Ditto

    If TD waves means anything, the 5 min ES is in a wave 5 of a down sequence – but we need to break the pivot. If it doesn't, then we're still in the sideways wave 4. If we take off, then we're in a wave 3 of 5 up sequence. Clear? Not to me either. That's why I see them as a curiosity. They are simple – but still confusing. EW is even more complex, with all sorts of caveats and “outs”. For me, with my little (dangerous) knowledge, it always seems that I can know where I was after the fact, not in advance. Much easier for my simple mind to use trend lines. Occam's razor.

    EUR is sitting on it's own neutral pivot as I type. Interesting situation and I look forward to playing a short into the open (unless something changes).

    Cheers.

  • gmak

    When you wish upon a star…….

    Not today, I fear. Maybe DAX will co-operate on Monday /Tuesday, no?

  • gmak

    Not nice to point fingers. This is the problem with traders. The pattern-recognition portion of their brains is too developed and they see structure in everything. It's called data mining.

    I once did some work with neural networks. Seemed like a good idea at the time. However, the darn things would fit a pattern to ANYTHING – whether it was real or not. The human brain is the same. Traders' brains are worse.

    ROFL.

  • gmak

    MoM, MBS purchases by the FED are up by $65 billion – this is what is driving the market, not the USD. The USD is just reflecting this growth in “money” which is being leveraged by the US financial system.

    MBS purchases WoW by the FED are by up only $85 million. This may be why the market looks tired.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes patern recognition in humans is already type one error prone.

    in traders it's on overdrive

    it is useful if used as nature evolved it, to identify THREATS, not oportunities

    but then again you's just freeze

  • ultrabear

    Hey – you're our lucky charm! LOL.

    So, buddy, ole pal… do tell – whatcha got in the diary today, hrm?

  • gmak

    Here is a link to data affecting FX trading. Sort of shows what happened around the time Europe opened, from the data.

    http://www.forexfactory.com/

  • gmak

    Nothing. Reading up on Asset-Liability Mangement.

  • tradejane

    gmac
    >When you wish upon a star..

    They say “wish on one hand, $hit on the other and see what happens first.”

    I don't like the odds of the latter happening ,so I won't even try to do that. 🙂

    Love your analysis and I agree with the Mon/Tue. I've given up trying to understand what moves the markets, so I just read the tea-leaves and use stops. 🙂

  • kokoro33

    thanks

  • innatedc

    If I may put in a non-EW perspective, and I've shown the chart just over a week ago, the 89MA on the weekly is an extremely powerful line. It sits at 1070 right now and a close this week above it is one step closer to being very bullish (however it can fake us out, though briefly), dare I say bull market. The other pattern that is powerful is the island reversal ala AMZN. Many have also mentioned the 3 gap pattern, also powerful. Today and next week are extremely critical to me.

  • innatedc

    I also think that we will begin to see the equities possibly drop faster than the dollar can rise….I truly believe all US asset classes will be fled at some point if it hasn't started already.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    all we have to do is to stay with the plan and not to try to predict every ticky-tacky move

  • innatedc

    Agreed…keep the big picture in mind…

  • anthem

    just a minor type. I think you meant 1062 as neutral on /ES. As a 1052 neutral which is below S1 would really be interesting :-),

  • gmak

    Here is a daily email from the Reuters Europe fixed income desk. Looks like UK sovereigns had a scare last night, but the bottom held and this is giving comfort to bond traders. Day traders got screwed on the way down, and again on the way up. Same old story. 🙂

    US GOVTS: Outlook — Wow! That Was Close
    Friday October 9, 2009

    [12:10 US GOVTS: Outlook — Wow! That Was Close]
    * Bonds down from Thursday close, led by front-end
    * European government bonds flatten on curve, catch up to Tsys
    * JGBs slip on position squaring ahead of Monday holiday, BoJ Wednesday
    * Bank of Korea rates unchanged at 2.00% as expected, no Oz surprise
    * Bernanke: ready to tighten when economy “has improved sufficiently”
    * President Obama wins Nobel Peace Prize
    London, October 9. December 10-year futures were crushed by as much as half
    a point last night, but conveniently found support at the 38% retracement of the
    rally from the September 22 low (118-20.5, the overnight low being 118-19.5).
    Technically, the end result appears to be a decisive rejection of the downside,
    keeping the overall tone supportive — albeit with a bit more consolidation
    likely first.
    Which fits fine with a market which has successfully taken down $78 bln of
    bonds this week, gaining itself a two-week reprieve without any more coupon
    supply until the end of the month. Which on a tangent compares favorably to
    Europe where circa Eur25 bln will hit next week, at a time when 10s/Bunds has
    pushed back out to the wider end of the range at +13 bps on Tradeweb.
    Otherwise, it”s a relatively quiet Friday without much on the schedule. Today
    brings just one release, August international trade (mkt -$33.00 bln, prev –
    $31.96 bln). At a stretch, this may provide hints at a recovery in global
    growth — or provide evidence for a lack thereof. Make of it what you will, but
    Germany”s balance of trade was released earlier with the surplus narrowing
    unexpectedly to Eur10.6 bln as exports dropped 1.8% but imports rose 1.1%.
    And since the Fed heads have been getting a lot of attention lately, here”s
    a heads up that Vice Chairman Kohn will speak on monetary policy research and
    the crisis at 12:15 EST (remember Kohn was one of the first out of the gate with
    relatively hawkish comments a few weeks ago when he declared “Tightening while
    there is still slack in the economy is something that we have to do every time”
    when speaking before the Cato Institute September Wednesday September 30.
    Otherwise, there really isn”t much to be concerned with today. And lest you
    get too worked up about the Kohn possibilities, consider the markets have
    already done so with respect to “hawkish” comments from FOMC Chairman Bernanke
    himself, who declared last night that the Federal Reserve stands ready to
    tighten monetary policy — to which bonds got crushed and Eurodollars tumbled as
    much as eight ticks in response.
    Which might all be scary enough on its own, particularly after the poor 30-
    year bond auction yesterday, except that the market came steaming right back to
    basically unchanged levels in the long-end. As far as actual selling goes, it
    seems to have largely been limited to the “panicked” variety, including many
    stop losses. Day traders got blown away (stopped out on the way down and
    stopped out on shorts on the way back up), and much of the rest of the pressure
    appears to have been opportunistic. In other words, many accounts still believe
    in the deflation story, and hence bull flatteners, but simply waited for a
    bigger back up in rates before rolling longs and/or adding to them. Hence the
    healthy bounce back in the long-end.
    Otherwise, there was good buying both during Tokyo and again during London.
    Part of this was Asia receiving and then buying in the belly, with more
    derivatives receiving later in London helping swap spreads to noticeably tighten
    overnight. European buying in the long-end also helped out, and flatteners from
    those same opportunistic types of course deserve mention as well. Volume
    meanwhile was good, with 169k 10-year futures now trading by 08:04 EST.
    Where this all leads off to is a bit of a wait-and-see before the new week.
    Hence our tactical bias is neutral, looking for a range of 3.30%/3.20% on 10s
    (wow that was close considering the overnight high yield on 10s was 3.31%). And
    our strategic bias is flat as is the curve bias.
    Just in case, a return to the overnight low in December 10s would be ominous
    as a breach would not only break that 38% retracement but also send the market
    back into the prior range which held through all of September. Resistance
    meanwhile stands out at the 119-29 high for the move.
    One last aside concerns news that 33 TARP recipients have missed a scheduled
    dividend to the Treasury, including 18 which have missed the payment for the
    first time. It”s not clear what this means for bonds (it”s bad news for the
    financial system, but also bad news for the Treasury), but it can”t be good for
    the dollar. Then again, the dollar is already priced for one heck of a lot of
    bad news (certainly with respect to gold aside from the currencies) anyway.
    The Fed will purchase agency coupons (Oct 15, 2011 to Sep 16, 2013) at
    10:30, and Vice Chair Kohn (FOMC voter) will speak on monetary policy research
    and the crisis at 12:15. There will be no Treasury issuance activity.
    Remember, not to show up for work Monday to respect the Columbus Day holiday.
    Michael.Cartine@ThomsonReuters.com/DS

    http://www.ifrmarkets.com

    For queries regarding this report please contact ifrmarkets@thomsonreuters.com.

  • ultrabear

    Good stuff. Had no idea that zero-down mortgages had risen from the grave – holy jumping fk. Anyone who takes one of those out right now – jeebus…

  • Styrfart

    US trade balance -30,7 expected -32,8B, here we go again! 🙁

  • gmak

    This means less money in the FED /FCB circle jerk for financing US Debt. It is actually supportive of the deflationary thesis – i.e. asset prices falling over time.

  • losershot

    bought TNA

  • kokoro33

    come on h1, whodoo you think you’re foolin’?

    9/2 low 992 sq root plus 2 re-squared = 1122

    but will it make it? only the shadow knows

    lowbrow monk

  • Styrfart

    gmak, but that's the problem – market is looking less than a nose length LOL

  • innatedc

    For anyone who cares, Gann Financial is calling for a big run up in the wheat market soon. Wheat futures are /ZW. 12.50 a tick is pretty good.

  • humble1 ™

    33:

    yeah, good one. but seems too obvious. i’m infatuated with SPX 1141 right
    now, lol.

    my “get ready to sell” light starts brightly starts flashing on 10/13. but i
    need a price.
    do you have an astrodate you like? 8/28 was a direct funkymonk hit! i don’t
    forget these things.

    🙂

  • gmak

    Yes. That Neutral ES pivot is 1062

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Good morning All, just not sure which way the wind might blow today, but I think sideways is the name of the game for a day or two. Which could mean we are forming right shoulder on SPX of an inverse H&S. (sigh)
    G/L trading to all 🙂

  • Styrfart

    Stockholm OMXS30 is up 0,55%, the Industrial index is down -0,24% guess what index that is pumping!!! Financial of course! +1,35% speculation that a M&A bid from Finnish Sampo to bid for Nordea bank! The one bank that was bailed out by the state last time! Here we go again! Jihaaa

  • losershot

    Won up, Asian hedge funds buy greenback:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091009-70

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    Obama takes a dump; wins Nobel Peace Prize

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091009/ap_on_re_eu

  • tradejane

    Styrfart,

    maybe it't a local move? Dax banks have been rather weak all day, Commerzbank even broke a 2-day support a while ago.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I thought you went to Bermuda David???

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Grim, thanks for the link I was wondering why he got it.. 🙂

  • Duuuuuude

    Any apologist for anything that made this country great becomes a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize. Beyond that, what did Obama do? He has accomplished nothing, except getting a spendulous bill passed that netted nothing except tripling the national debt and devaluing our currency.

  • Styrfart

    I hope so, but i think Helsinki is up on the that spec and Nokia! But at the same time, let us hit new year high and get it over and done! This is killing me slowly and softly! LoL

  • gmak

    The 3x small cap bull shares? And you're telling me this because……?

  • losershot

    was @ skyfart, soz

  • Styrfart

    maybe, he will use the price money to start a new clunkers program! 🙂 The world is upside down, “the socialist Sweden” have a minor program $7K for improving your apartment/house

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • gmak

    How wrong was I about the S1 pivot on the EUR. Wow! Looing for a bounce here in EUR 0 or not. I'm out of synch and need to stand back for a while.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Hi Gmak, I just added to short usd/JPY at this level…the one minute is way overbought 🙂

  • cramar

    Great heads up! But unless one has a commodity account then what? Is there a stock play that could take advantage of the wheat market? Also soybeans looks like it is finishing an A-B-C.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    Good morning Anna…. are you doing this in the futures markets or FX?

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhound Scrillhound

    Nice angles where the upper trendlines meet the fibo… Smaller line met up w/ the 10/2 date as well.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/folders/Jing/media/599db644-bff0-4c4f-9ded-4dac27ee1167/Angle1.png

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Morning Dire 🙂
    FX

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    Wells Fargo. Such a great buy, insiders are dumping it on every rip ahead of earnings.

    http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Gener

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    so you are buying yen here?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Yes

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    traitor! 🙂

  • rhae

    Bearnake, trying to pull a Greenspan stunt (speech last night) talk the dollar up… raise rates/drain swamp.
    However, the Fed needs to put it's policies where it's mouth is. Scare tactics can cause blips. But yak, yak, yak… will not get the job done….

  • dollar

    I think we have reached the political/financial “irritation” point in the fall of the dollar:

    Indeed, what began as the race to devalue has begun to irk those bearing the brunt of appreciation on the other side. That would be mostly countries jam-packed with dollar-denominated reserves.

    As Master Yoda would say: The fear of loss is a path to intervention indeed. Use the force, they will.

    The FT’s story on Friday at least suggested as much. As the FT reported:

    Asian central banks intervened heavily in the currency markets on Thursday to stem the appreciation of their currencies against the US dollar amid fears that their exports could be losing ground against China.

    And in a token gesture to further support the dollar, Ben Bernanke announced the Fed was ready to tighten monetary policy once the economy improved too. Comments that, at least temporarily, increased the appeal of US assets and lifted the dollar.

    The point here is that greater ‘forces’ than usual are at play in the world of forex trading; the emergence, if you will, of the DEBTED SIDE vs the SURPLUS ALLIANCE.

    Among those hinting of such divide was Bank of New York Mellon’s Neil Mellor. On Friday he wrote (our emphasis):

    Indeed, nothing more readily highlights the strength of forces now at play in the foreign exchange market than the sheer scale of USD reserve accumulation by central banks resolute in their will to avert any decline in their export competitiveness in a world short of demand.

  • jaxon

    apparently folks are starting to question Treasury's “lack of a dollar policy”. sorry, but i think their policy has been quite clear. the conventional wisdom is that there have thus far been no serious consequence to crushing the dollar. excuse me?

    at what point did the U.S. begin assuming it was too big to fail? Uncle Sam is shamelessly holding out his hat to anyone that will contribute while silently robbing the citizenry blind. at what point does the bond market cash in it's chips? does China and the other debt holders really expect Americans to cut entitlements and other programs in order to pay them back? U.S. leaders don't have the courage to do the right thing. most of them need to check the direction of the wind before every vote. lawyers and salesmen. no offense meant, but hullo? the gravy train is rapidly approaching the cliff. in not too many years we will not even be able to service the expanding debt.

    as we all know, there are but 2 ways to repudiate debt. inflation or default. both end badly. what's it gonna be?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hahahah scalping to make some $ 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    I won't be round much today as I'm busy doing personal stuff.

    T_ got me the link of that video that I mentioned yesterday after hours & I am therefore reposting it for you. Many thanks to T_ for digging it up.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF1ufbQocIM

    It is one of the Mr Top Step videos, originally posted 15th September 2009 & is potentially a spookily accurate call, if we reach the 1110 area, which I think we may well.

    T_ also posted a chart for me which is well worth a look and illustrates very well why we may reach the 1110 level, which would be an extremely good level to short from for me both as the 1120 level is my line in the sand for the EW count I like best, and also, for reasons made clear on the chart, because it is a potentially very important level for establishing whether we are still in a cyclical bear market at all. I am sure he won't mind if I repost it for everyone & I would like to thank him again for providing it for us:

    http://screencast.com/t/VTzTEx9Mln1f

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    You know I am not going to get into a huge polital discussion, but is anyone shocked that Obama won the Nobel Peace prize???? For what????

  • innatedc

    Stocks? Not off the top of my head…

  • gmak

    I'm long EUR at this level. But nervous (guess I only trust the TA so far in the face of global traders' expectations). If traders expect the USD to strengthen more from here, it will.

    ________________________________

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Hey Jack, me too I have to get “the Poms” groomed and I will worked while they are.

    I think today will basically be sideways. Forming the right shoulder on the inverse H&S on sPX.

    to go to 1121 Have a great day 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I think Bernanke was spewing allot of crap to give the dollar an orderly decline LOL
    Good luck to us both 🙂

  • Bear Claw

    Good question. I heard this morning that he would have had to been nominated 11 days after being elected for him to be considered. Don't know if that is true yet but interesting.

  • thelefteyeguy

    ugg…Mandela spent a lifetime to achieve it…obama wins it in 200days in the office…what a slap in the face to the previous winners

  • dollar

    TheNobel has been a joke for a while: Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, Kofi Annan, Yasser Arafat….please

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    You're right that is true..they had to nominate him right after he got into office…hmmmmmmmm??

  • gmak

    shocked? yes. Surprised? No. The peace prize is not on the same level as the other Nobel prizes in terms of rigour and non-political non-partisanship.

    It is basically a political decision and award.

  • Hanuman

    The Nobel committee made a poor joke of themselves and the whole selection process. Finally they made it public, that most of their selections (for all categories) are mostly dependent on other factors !

    Now officially the “NOBEL PRIZE” has been down graded to “JOKE”.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I know…it bothered me and they had to nominate him 10 days after he became president ??

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    That's true. they must be smoking some good stuff in sweden LOL

  • CorporalCarrot

    Whats happening oil folks? After falling to under $71, its been on a tear, even though the dollar has got stronger?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    I will agree with that Hanuman 🙂

  • Implosion

    Hmmm….Mole away next week….that means the market tanks right? <grin>

  • gmak

    I would guess USD flowing into ETFs and speculators' pockets that are being deployed in oil. It's not a supply /demand function anymore, but how much USD is chasing return.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    USD/JPY 15 minute looks like rolling over (means higher equities) but i think today we chop around.

  • jaxon

    amen. it is my contention that before the dust settles on this BFM there
    will be hell to pay. the “hero” of today will be run out of town tomorrow.
    words like fraud, theft, and dare i say treason, might enter the public
    consciousness.

  • gmak

    Meeting at 10AM EDT, for those stroking their…. rabbit feet.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I think we will all take what we can get in the way of voodoo indicators right now..

    Skål!

  • CorporalCarrot

    I'm sure you're right, but its weird the way a lot of correlations are taken as truism's………until they don't work any more 🙂

  • Bear Claw

    BNI short with stop at hod.

  • NewTrader3391

    for being obedient and following his masters. if you want to know how are the masters are
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOe-sRUnO7Y&feat

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    even matt laur on the today show didn't know what he had done… and that is saying something!

  • gmak
  • NewTrader3391

    for being obedient and following his masters. if you want to know how are the masters are
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOe-sRUnO7Y&feat

  • harveydent

    to wake up with a massive headache and seeing that news.
    not a good start to the weekend!

  • ds2

    Is the Zero not on? I see 10/8.

  • AS2009

    Is anyone else seeing the disconnect between UUP and oil movement … yesterday when UUP was at 22.66 … oil was at 35.60 … today it is at 36.60 – any clues why ?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Baby, I am seeing disconnects ALL over the place right now. And what that tells me is we have a fractured market. And fractured markets usually break down. We will just have to see. But be cautious about correlations you once assumed to be true.

    Skål!

  • Bankrupt

    He enlarged US military presence abroad less than expected. Furthermore, he raised military budget less than expected. Nobel prize fully deserved. Now watch him give it away to charity and hit million points with the world.

    I am going to cry. I mean vomit.

  • dullmind

    Good morning Anna.
    Looks like the zero is down. I know you have special ways of contacting Mole/Eric, could you use
    them to let them know, thanks.

  • springheel_jack

    Every time we make a significant top or bottom Anna we put in a series of chop / doji days. It looks to me like we may be doing that here. 🙁

    BTW Osso & Keirsten pointed out yesterday that H&S patterns are reversal rather than continuation patterns so the IHS may well not be valid.

    That's not the full story though, as an H&S could still act as a continuation pattern, but we have no stats from Bulkowski for them as continuation patterns, so the probability of them playing out is difficult to assess.

    Have fun with 'the Poms'. catch you later Anna. 🙂

  • Scrillhog

    Yes..

    666.79 * 1.618 = 1078
    3/6 – 7/8 = 124 days
    124 * 1.618 = 201
    201 = 9/23

    And so on…

  • AS2009

    Look at BIDU go — Yahoo !!

  • shortcover

    ndx up about 0.5% in 13 min…fascinating…

  • AS2009

    🙁

  • defenderyou

    As things are unclear, I remain long but wrote calls against my largest positions yesterday – OTM buy about 10% on MTL, HIG, and RSX. Already have calls against all positions in IRAs. I guess I beleive we go up more than down but it wont be exponential so NV calls offer me 5% to 10% income on top of the 10% gain before they are ITM. Normally I would trade out but am trying to tone down the day trading during this bull rise. Also own a few lotterys like DAC and recently bought PMI which is not going well…

  • Trader_Steve

    “Man bites dog.”

    Steve

  • AudioTactics

    Does anybody know of a good source for a calendar with scheduled earnings announcements?

    thx…

  • gmak
  • Bear Claw
  • Trader_Steve

    I teased you and made you wait 15 minutes. It is a disgrace.

    But they gave it to Arafat so it is not unexpected.

    It's a Kafka world, Anna. If you have never read “The Trial” I urge you too!

    Steve

  • TheCrowe

    UUP up 11 cents? Dow up too? Like I said yesterday, the dollar goes down, the market goes up. The dollar goes up, the market goes sideways/up. erg…

  • centerline

    My RIMM options just came back around to me. Closed them out for 40% gain. Not too shabby for something that initially went the wrong way! Might be more upside in RIMM – but in this market I am a little quicker to take profits than normal.

    Now, if this pig of a market rolls over soon, I will really be happy.

  • Keirsten

    They might try to run it up to the 200 EMA on the daily. Glad you made money on it- good trade!

  • Trader_Steve

    You are right. Arafat is is Hades saying, “he did not even place his people in bondage yet…pass the pork please.”

    Steve

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    As I just said… Standard correlations that we accept as the holy grail often become weakened, if not completely unhinged during the topping/bottoming process. It is really just another indication that we are close…

    Skål!

  • Trader_Steve

    Is that hmmmmmmmmmmm…or “hmmm….hmmm…..hmmm?”

    Steve

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol i hope you are right 🙂

  • TheCrowe

    Close = good. I've rolled what meager offerings (puts) I have left out another month. May the trading gods find them satisfactory and smite the market.

  • CorporalCarrot

    So are we finally going to take this 9,800-9,830 / 1,065-1,070 area today or what?

  • centerline

    Thanks. I considered the possibility of a run to the 200, but don't trust this market in general enough to miss the opportunity to book some profit. I am still watching it and could jump back in if it really starts to run.

  • gmak

    Out of my long with a profit. not really a scalp. Turned into a 1 hour investment. lol

  • omelette

    same

  • NewTrader3391

    this board became joke. too many political and rednecks, kkk talk.

  • innatedc

    Ban alert! Ban alert! Anna!!

  • rhae

    Yes, Briefing.com good… I still use the old WhisperNumber site also.. whisper numbers are not much good… but it does give a look back to show how the stock performed after the last 1 day/5 days in preceeding quarters… Of course that should be taken in context with market cycle…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but he is right if EWT is right and they didn't miscount, then this can't climb any further right now

  • defleming

    It seems Zero is down again. Does that mean Geronimo is down too?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and they gave it to Al Gore…

    well, I think this time it was a small joke

    They're calling a second Carter

  • AudioTactics

    Cheers! =)

  • Trader_Steve

    “a” joke…”A” joke…”Use your God-damned pronouns and prepositions!”

    Steve

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    says who?

    do you know the term indebtured servant?

    learn chinese, one of this days the mais US export will be americans as pets (as slaves they're too expensive and work too lçittle)

  • Bart7

    geez, can we keep it civil during trading hours at least? Stop the mud flinging…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    done 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    Another 'Murder by Death' fan perchance?

    I love that film. What a classic.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Berk they upgraded Bidu to 480 whooooooo hoooooooo

  • Trader_Steve

    >do you know the term indebtured servant?<

    Yes, as per the Constitution the tax rate upon working America leaves them as that, or outright slaves.

    Steve

  • springheel_jack

    Only if we are in P3 mate. If we are still in P2 all bets are off.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nice, however, I am maintaining my 430 price target for my OCT options… Soaring today. Gotta love it chica.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    yes I have a 440 so in same camp…riding that ride up then reverse 🙂

  • innatedc

    I'll join you two on the reverse…I was late on the long…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, cause it sure as hell tanks faster than it rallies. And boy does it rally fast…

    Skål!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    strange, was about to explain that we don't do japanese equities… what did he want with kakatu co? did he mean QQQ?

    ;-

  • springheel_jack

    This is looking like the start of an up or doji day to me, until I look at USD, which is up overnight.

    Strange divergence today.

  • Styrfart

    LoL the blowing up thing ….. been there, done that and eaten the cereal! The short DAX fr 9720, could well be hit! I can possibly se a HS forming on the OMXS30 15 min, H at 903,51, lets se if the L S forms or not! …

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Shit, I was late on the long by about 5 dollars from the break-out. Much more than that, I couldn't recommend.

    We'll all enjoy the ride down…

    Skål!

  • innatedc

    Doji-do, doji-do…lets do some country dancing…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    anyone for a 80 point drop on spx?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    somebody just dumped 2.6 million shares of spy. quite a spike on the 1min…

  • AS2009

    Sounds good to me … will be watching 🙂

  • springheel_jack

    Good thinking Inna. At least we won't have to watch this tape!

  • CorporalCarrot

    The dow has been rejected now several times from the 9,820-9,830 area going back over a couple of weeks.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i would say (short term) drop to 1050, quick rebound , drop to 1035… WAR

  • ZigZag

    I am 🙂

    980 within in 4 trading days..

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I'm up for it. Just not sure when we will be so lucky.

    Skål!

  • Trader_Steve

    Sarah Palin should have gotten it. She is HOT!…you should look so good at her age (g)

    Steve

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    thats what I see for today Inna 🙂

  • Tronacate

    Your momma needs to wash your mouth out with soap…….God's name in vain…….tsk, tsk.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    hahahah 🙂

  • gannsecret

    Molecool

    Hochberg is FINALLY going to be right

  • Trader_Steve

    Limbaugh has extensively covered why Obama has already defined himself as the worst president ever and his show today, in light of having had to be nominated 11 days after the inauguration, if going to be a good one!

    Steve

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    minute 3 down of wave 1?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    always enjoy your company Inna 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    wheeeeeeeeeee can't wait to do that one. 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, you know all us highly religious traders. Just like scientists. Now, investors might get pissed. They seem to fit much better in the “hope” camp.

    Skål!

  • mattco

    Steve and Tronacate,
    I like both of you guys but stop arguing! Surely there must be something you agree about! Find it and make nice! Now give me the fuckin Nobel Peace Prize. lol

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    What worse than the muppet that preceded him ?….sounds like he's a good judge of character…..Not…..

  • Tronacate

    Trader_Steve's a political troll………but “dining with Bolton” automatically makes him a know it all.

    Hey Mole, I thought politics were now out of bounds…… enforce it…….

  • DesertEagle

    Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize is like me winning an Academy Award

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Mole is likely still enjoying the comfort of his West Coast bed my friend. If not, he is fervently working on getting the damn zero fixed.

    Skål!

  • springheel_jack

    It was a quote from a classic 60s film Bart7.

  • Bart7

    gannsecret, what's your read on today's action, any level if breached would make you nervous about your outlook?

  • Bear Claw

    should be a good one Steve. Oh and point up…just cause.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    The Nobel MILF Award?

    some say obambo got the prize for keeping her out of the white house

    p.s. I'm sorry Mccain didn't win, I'm even sorrier he became someone else during the campaign, I even thought his choice of Palin was a nice strategy to lure in some discontented hilarites.. but then Palin opened her mouth… and wasn't on her knees

  • Tronacate

    Limbaugh???…..You listen to 75 Vikes a day Limbaugh????…..now I understand why you are such a moronic political TROLL
    Shut the hell up.

  • tradejane

    Yeah, that t-shirt sucks, doesn’t it.

    The DAX short and SRS feel quite comfortable for now. Small enough to leave over the weekend without risking significant damage yet they gives me a basis to build on in case we get our red Monday.

    I have reasons to believe we will. Banks and real estate have reaaaally been dragging their feet this time around. They’ve been making great shorts lately even on up market days and that says quite a bit.

  • Tronacate

    Nice……you get a stint on comedy central

  • CorporalCarrot

    Hre we go again at 9820. Lets see if it can take it this time.

  • Scrillhog

    Corn (/ZC) looks like it may head downward from here….

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Rofl hahahah 🙂

  • thelefteyeguy

    i think that's how obama won it too…he settled a fight between her daughters last night

  • Keirsten

    I don't have TOS open, can you tell me what wheat is doing this morning? TIA

  • Tronacate

    LMAO…….Maybe Palin and Rush can split those 75 Vikes…….

  • gmak

    Sure. IF…… 😉

    EW works fine for many personal trading styles. I am uncomfortable with all the backward looking and reseting of the count, uncertainty etc…. Much less uncertainty with trend lines for inter-day views, and using momentum TA for intra-day trading. My that's my style and preference. I don't put down EW. It's another tool. I'm just more comfortable with a pair of pliers than a wrench. 🙂

    Cheers

    ________________________________

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    moronic political troll? steve hadn' insulted you…yet

    soon to be corrected

    we are free to voice our opinion, not to insult other posters

  • Scrillhog

    Down about 7 off the open.. Looks to me like it's about to cross downwards on the 1 hr EMA's.. Especially if the $ keeps going higher IMO.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You laugh, but tell me you don't agree… Honestly, I don't blame him… I'd still be asleep today if I could be.

    Skål!

  • Bear Claw

    Three 24″ monitors shipped for $500 fwiw. Good dealio

  • colonel_bleep

    IBM cranking. Up 2.40 to new high at 124.70

  • gmak

    Which contract and exchange etc are you trading for wheat futures?

  • TheCrowe

    {mumbles in corner, “this is why we shouldn't talk about politics in here….”}

  • Tronacate
  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    kaboom?

  • Keirsten

    Thanks, Tron. 😉

  • Keirsten

    What about a longer term projection? Any thoughts?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Could have finished a smaller flat in minuette or smaller degree. Staying below yesterday's highs helps keep this in place. However, the blue flat scenario can still be playing out with a new high, so long as it is below 1080.

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    No prob….hope that's what you wanted…..I can pull up a daily if you want.

  • ZigZag

    Yes…As long as we don't break 1080 I'm sticking with it..

    http://tinyurl.com/yldzm5w

  • Nightwind

    Great deal. Buy them online?

  • Keirsten

    Actually, an Academy Award would be more appropriate for him. He's quite the actor.

  • Tronacate

    Wheat just jumped big time off the red candlestick

  • Keirsten

    I might hit you up for that over the weekend? I'll hunt you down then… no hurry on it. 😉

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't say bad things about EWT, as far as I see the FED and it's minions use EWT to time their pushes…

  • tradejane

    >let us hit new year high and get it over and done!

    Styr…It's true that all obvious indicators point to a continuation of the rally. That's just fine with me, I always have a few high-yielding long positions (ETV, VNR) in the account.

    But I'm also a macro bear and I'm seeing signs. Not sure if it's voodoo signs or signs that I need more coffee. Either way I've started a short on DAX from 5.720 area and a small SRS position at 9.71. With stops, naturally. (Erm, I blew up an account by not doing that once…)

  • Hanuman

    It couldn't have been told in a better way. You are absolutely correct.

  • faafa

    There seems to be no feed coming through the Zero. Has someone alerted Mole already? Thanks.

  • Styrfart

    Yes, I think we all look on the financial sector to see any weakness in the market place! 🙂 Actually swedish real estate and buildning have been laggning for some time already and the banks have had hugh volatility due to the baltic exposure. And if you get out of sync, it bites you in, you know what! But hoping on Fujisans scenario to play out regarding monday and tuesday. Lets see if we can bring this sucker below opning! 🙂

  • malusDiaz

    look at LQD!

  • dollar

    10:43 AM According to the Fed's latest figures, bank loans to business are shrinking at a yearly pace of 28%. “The question is whether the decline in lending will be reversed soon.”

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    You got that right I am slowly getting ready to head out 🙂

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    arghhh,the infamous climb to 11:30 about to atempt to break 1080?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Oh Berk I totally agre, that's why the giggle… I don't blame him if he wanted to sleep all day 🙂

  • Osso

    TBT keeps climbing…..said so…

  • gmak

    Look at TNX go. Flight from the 10 year – just like overnight (see my Reuters post below). The article mentions the floor price – be good to see if it holds or not.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    looks like the USD is about to go down on the 5 minute chart

  • Osso

    TBT needs hurdle 45.26, with conviction..

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    this baby is going 30 points real soon…

    one way or the other

  • Me_XMan

    LOL!

  • tradejane

    I think we talked about that last week. I'm the one who's looking for a re-entry in TLT at the 96 area but I'm glad for the TBT folks. 🙂

  • gmak

    Here's a quote from my earlier post about 10 year futures.

    December 10-year futures were crushed by as much as half
    a point last night, but conveniently found support at the 38% retracement of the
    rally from the September 22 low (118-20.5, the overnight low being 118-19.5).
    Technically, the end result appears to be a decisive rejection of the downside,
    keeping the overall tone supportive — albeit with a bit more consolidation
    likely first.

  • dollar

    Bkx/XLF are going to lead the way down

  • bshah

    Tell me seriously… I am about to quit on my GS/GOOG … Holding it with that stupid hope, which if Mole sees me saying “HOPE”, he would ban me here..
    BTW, SSH, is it gonna happen today ? (LOL) we have holiday weekend coming and I don't want to hold my PUTS if we gonna go high next week again..

  • dollar

    The Fed is reportedly setting its plans to drain record amounts of cash from the financial system by accessing funds through third-party clearing banks in order to enable reverse repurchase agreements. The central bank faces a challenge in conducting reverse repos without constraining the capital of the 18 primary dealers who would normally be sole counterparties to the transactions.

  • Scrillhog

    Haven't really been trading either of these lately.. For a few weeks corn had been trading almost exactly the same every day and was an ATM machine, then went limit down one day after a crop report and I haven't liked it since. If I was just going of my EMA's on the daily it looks fairly bullish. Way off the May highs.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/folde

  • Osso

    oh….yes…..

  • gmak

    My delayed time price on the 10 year future is presently 118-14 vs 118-20 in the overnight. Higher price means lower yield. Lower price means higher yield, including for mortgages.

    At first blush it looks like the holding level from overnight has been broken. This has implications for the USD, depending on who is doing the selling and what they are doing with the proceeds.

  • Offtimer

    LQD is crashing fasten your seat belts.

  • gmak

    boo-yah.

  • Bart7

    what's it mean for other markets?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    look, nobody can tell you what happens monday, but hold a while, at least until 11:45 (or sooner if it breaks 1080)

  • gmak

    Thanks for that.

    Conviction = close above then open Monday above, and close higher…..

    ________________________________

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Well, if it is any consolation, I will be selling my OCT BIDU calls today as I don't want toe fight 3 days of theta burn on my front months…

    Skål!

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    On my 15000 tick chart on ES we have completed bar 12 of a TD Seq Sell countdown. Implies one more intra day push up before complete.

  • kokoro33

    h1,

    shirley you see the 3/17/08 low and the 1/6/09 high

    next up = 10/17, …. it won’t compute in cds or tds
    but it’s exact…. using mars helios, as taught by brad cowan

    L-H-H or L-H-L?? or ‘Big Fat Miss’??

    What’s the vector, Victor?

    lowbrow monk

  • gmak

    Eyeball look says it is still holding trend from late 2008, no?

  • gmak

    Now THAT, I can understand! <grin>. So it has to break down within 12 more bars after the 13. Did you know that the 13 is the hardest bar to get of any of the TD stuff. It always seems to break early, or not at all. Just an observation…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    F*#$ ME!

    is this still B of 4 of 5?

    triangle don't go well on wave 2 and this is…

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    I hear you. Breaking early does seem to happen often. I have also noticed that 'stop' levels can be GREAT levels to initiate a trade. 🙂

  • gannsecret

    Monk,
    Transiting Mars in helio is 20 deg gemini on the 17th
    whats the connection

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    That is also why I would hit the sell button if we go here!

  • itsgold

    Ishares is a government bond fund. This usually moves in tandem with $SPX. Check the Chart at http://easycaptures.com/fs/uploaded/382/5320152

    Mole is also using this instrument as a measure of whether 'Primary 3' has started.

  • gannsecret

    Above 1073 would make my sphincter
    so tight you couldn't drive a needle in it with a sledge hammer

  • gmak

    For those into commodities or aluminium. Here is an internal blurb on China. I'm sure this info is publicly available.

    China – Clamping down on industrial overexpansion: Last week, the Chinese cabinet announced a three-year ban on new aluminum production projects and added new regulations in sectors such as steel and coal. There have been concerns that the massive stimulus package enacted earlier this year would overheat industrial activity leading to factory closures and job losses. The new regulations quell fears of overproduction – which could lead to unemployment and potentially heighten political unrest – but investors worry the measures may squeeze profits.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    Huge crop… hard to get in the fields though. COT data looks bullish to me.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Don't tempt the market… It will try.

    Skål!

  • TheCrowe

    Alot of volume on those big red candles on the 5 min. Would you care to elaborate on LQD's implications for the broader market? My assumption would be that if LQD goes down(and therefore bonds decline) that money needs to end up somewhere else, perhaps equities. Thanks Offtimer. Best, Richard

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    CBOT Dec contract most liquid now. Then go to H, K,N, U….then Z again

  • gmak

    Puhleez! I'm about to eat…. lol.

  • Tronacate

    SRS looks like it may have put in a reversal……

  • centerline

    Really would love to see this break the 50 day MA. I has been bouncing right off of it so far.

  • gmak

    EWZ9 then.

  • gannsecret

    Hams,
    should start today

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    I am going to dig up 3 video links on China I have watched. Freaking unreal. There is so much overcapacity over there it is scary.

  • malusDiaz

    If *I* was a market maker, and i thought we were close to a top, i'd want that VIX REALLY low, so i could screw a bunch of traders when i buy my puts.

    Just my 2 cents.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    LQD is corporate bonds. LQD down vs IEF then spreads go out… equities go down. Its all about bond spreads. Look at HYG or JNK too.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    yep.

  • gmak

    Those ones with the totally empty huge shopping malls and all those empty apartment buildings – miles and miles of them (looks just like Spain a year or so ago…..)

  • CorporalCarrot

    I think we are working our way up here for a breakout.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    yeah. Hugh Hendry made one too on CRE… its nuts. there is one with factories shutting down too. crazy.

  • gmak

    Geronimo agrees.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall%20 annamall

    Out of here you guys have a happy trading day to all 🙂

  • Osso

    11.30 am peak…???

  • gmak

    Anyone who believes in the China miracle has to just look at that to realize that there will be blood in the streets over there at some point in the future.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Dow about to break this 9,830 area thats kept it constrained for some time.

  • Osso

    good weekend anna……

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers….agree

  • marcT

    Good day Anna! Did you get my e-mail?

  • Scrillhog

    From 3/6:
    97*1.272=123
    97*1.618=156
    97*2.058=200

    Also – the pitchfork has some nice lines:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    I just get pissed off about this linear line BS. I mean… when had a country EVER grown just up with no bumps and bruises along the way. Oh yeah… and its communist too to boot. Ridiculous. But heh… lets go put a massive multiple on it.

  • Osso

    9854 is the #….to watch..

  • Osso

    Qs are laaaaaaaagging…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Why di you say that Osso?

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    looks like we will breakout… ? is…. will it stick?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we'll see soon enough if it fails

  • gannsecret

    Yea, it has a way of upping the stress levels

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf
  • CorporalCarrot

    Back on 23rd september, I got stopped out of a dow short at 9,833 precisely 20 seconds before the market tanked for that 400 point drop. So this area has painful memories for me 🙂

  • Osso

    they were at 42.60 yesterday when SPX was at 1069…..and they are no longer leading….and they will lead the down side…

  • Me_XMan

    You have another chance to short?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone, pull up a log scale, 1 minute chart of todays dow, and look at the beautiful trendline connecting the bottoms. You couldn't draw that straighter with a ruler.

  • CorporalCarrot

    No i meant about 9854?

  • Joe8888

    10 Year T-Note..

  • AudioTactics

    Yeah, LQD has not broken back above its incredible trend line after breaking down in early October.

  • Osso

    September 17th. highs…are a big resistance line….imo

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know, and have seen your 1073 line in the sand. but be careful they usualy push “just another inch” to stop bears.

    For the first time since july I see real bear fighting those GS pushes

  • centerline

    I am still not entirely sure, but LQD is investment grade corporate bonds. When viewed against TLT, one could make an assumption that money is moving away from corporate debt and towards treasuries. The funny part that still gets me is that JNK is going up! From what I know, JNK is junk bonds. I would think these would be quicker to signal risk aversion.

    Nonetheless, I think LQD does mean something. I can't yet pinpoint what exactly it means.

  • Bart7

    TNX 10 year yield up 3.5%, money moving into equities or what's happening

  • Offtimer

    We should tank pretty soon again. LQD dropped below Monday's opening. All these equities gains will probably be wiped out by the end of the day from this week.

  • CorporalCarrot

    OK cheers.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BEAR TRAIN ready to leave the station… all aboard?

    or is it the bull phantom rocket?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Could someone explain to a noob the significance of the drops in LQD?

  • Osso

    TBT running….!!!!!

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    Junk spreads are way in. They are getting deals done at levels that stupify me. Investment committees having to put money to work. It will end badly for those bond holders.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Dow sitting perfectly on that trendline I mentioned earlier. Which way will it go?

  • centerline

    This means rally in AA, right? :-p

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did it just break?

  • gannsecret

    Never forget the market is bigger than one entity.  This market IS going down from here.
    it may not be fast at first, but before winter sets in there will be a very nice decline. a little more time to get her rollin

  • Bart7

    dollar up 1/2%, stocks up… bonds selling off…. weird shit…

  • Paleface
  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Alright, this is my 3rd mention (today) about correlations. When they stop holding true like we all expect, the markets are broken. Broken markets have trouble putting in new highs together. Broken markets will likely soon fall.

    Skål!

  • tradejane

    Tsk, tsk, I guess nobody wants to go long the Bond on a three day weekend. 🙂 🙂

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't have to preach, i'm 100% commited to 3x bear ETFS (already lost a lot)

  • Offtimer

    Review Mole's piece from archives last week on LQD.

  • Osso

    Tjane….you love those TLT….eh..???

  • tradejane

    I know! It's hard to be on the Deflationary camp without liking them. 🙂

  • Osso

    shippers red…!!!!!! economy booming….!!!!

  • mattco

    Take a look at the BDI and port of Long Beach reports. Gruesome.

  • tradejane

    Watch, if SRS goes above $10 all hell will break loose.

  • Me_XMan

    Hamster. You need to STAY AWAY from 3X ETF!!!!

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf
  • PRSGuitars

    NQ @ 133.3 (2nd attempt) of previous channel:
    http://screencast.com/t/uq9ifPz6Qfc

    ambush time? Shorted NQ @ 1724.5, might scalp out for a few points (but TICK did just drop away from consolidation)… just my channel update for the moment!

  • Osso

    better start thinking in shorting goldstocks, gold metal….as a deflationist……

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    yeah… don't hold that sh*t. short short term trades only.

  • gmak

    USD caught a bid, here. EUR fell about 30 bps in the last half hour. Nothing earth shaking, but ES movement is tepid by comparison.

  • gannsecret

    Going out on a limb.
    It could be the dollar has bottomed. Although EW
    is not my favorite method, I follow it to try and confirm my other forecasting methods. It could be the DXY had a wave 5 yesterday and thats it. It would dovetail very nicely with my belief the S&P is about to hit the old trap door.

  • Osso

    Dow and SPX really disconnected…..from the rest….they will soon turn down…

  • Nightwind

    Out of long positions.

  • mattco

    I guess down is good. I think I am going to get one of those Teeter Inversion things and trade upside down. That would probably help me out!

  • TheCrowe

    Re: P3 and 3X ETF
    If you were confident that you were in a P3 (and near the top, so no danger of an intermediate wave kicking you in the ass) why not buy calls in the 3x inverse ETFs? Someone tell me this is a bad idea… 🙂

  • tradejane

    Funny that you should mention that. I'm actually long physical AU. VERY long.

  • Osso

    then you are not SO deflationist…

  • Keirsten

    .. just need to hold the line today and I think we're good to go… downnnnnn… The only glitch is this volume, and Monday may not be any better with the bond market closed.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    take acid… everybody else is.

  • Styrfart

    🙂 look's like Dow flatlined! hope that it doesn't have a health cover!

  • tradejane

    Oh… I don't know… Physical AU did pretty well during the first deflation…

  • Osso

    true….relatively better than the rest….

  • Keirsten

    … would be nice to see a weekly close on UUP above 22.79 this afternoon

  • Joe8888

    10 SPY support levels…$ Channel

  • gmak

    Second touch of EUR coming to that lower pivot at 1.4713 – <grin> the one that I didn't think we would see today. Just put another pin through it. ES seems to be holding up ok. Guess that USD buying isn't taking away from the leveraged USD liquidity in the US financial system…. (duh!).

  • Osso

    OIH LOD….mmmm….

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

    I am seeing the USD up against everything in the world except the loonie.

    My calls on UUp appreciate this… 😉

  • Keirsten

    Broke down out of the wedge too. I like it.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Leverage cuts both ways, and theta burn is guaranteed. But sure…if you were confident….

  • Keirsten
  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my bank doesn't do options…

  • Keirsten

    Sooner or later the commodities trade will weight on the Loonie methinks. What says you?

  • gannsecret

    K girl, don't worry about the volume. It will come after the mkt has been down for a few days and picking up steam.  The reason volume has been so light is the general public “Retail”
    has been out of the mkt for a year or so.  Many were so frightened at the big decline of 2008   they are scared to comeback.  See good ol common sense is still around. The “Retail” has their ears to the street and isn't buying this BAIT.

  • Joe8888

    nice

  • Iguanadon

    Can anyone else get to Zerohedge? Can't connect to it and wondering if it's just me (or the airport Wifi) or if the site is down.

  • Styrfart

    now I'm confused again! But wasn't the cross with the gann fan a strong resistance! – we are the borg, resistance is futile

  • insite

    i'm getting a time out error; i think the site is down.

  • Keirsten

    I completely agree…. just considering the recent volume patterns in play lately. Slow Mondays and Fridays.. then we pick up steam. I'm just happy to see us staying under 1070. I'm a recent Gann convert. LOL

  • Iguanadon

    Thanks for the confirmation insite.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my bank doesn't do options

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    GS and the boys finally had enough of ZH:)

  • gmak

    It was up earlier. Now it's down.

  • Osso

    the tards are pumping the Semis today….after 2 days of being the laggards…is so funny how clear the manipulation goes….

  • Iguanadon

    the markets or zerohedge? 😉

    I guess I'll get my extreme doom and gloom from Denninger for a little while.

  • centerline

    Interesting thoughts. Also, in looking at the bigger picture, JNK does appear to be topping – and does correlate to LQD behavior on a macroscopic scale with albeit greater volatility. Also, JNK tracks very well to the SPX. LQD however has been steady as a rock. Interesing differences.

    Maybe some bearish wishful thinking is that smart money has been in LQD and greedy money has been in JNK. Drop in LQD preceding drop in JNK might illustrate the quiet and orderly exit of the smart money. The question then really is where is the money going? Back into equities, or elsewhere (gold?).

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    exactly, but it burns fast…

  • davosdax

    Movement in $ and gold seems counter-intuitive to rise in TBT. Watching GLD but expecting to add to my long position later.

  • gannsecret

    Osso,
    Its not minipulation, it is sector rotation. Hedge funds and mutal funds are looking at relative strength for places to put new money.

  • insite

    i'm not a bonds guy, so please step in if my thinking is flawed. would it be reasonable to think that the flight from LQD type assets would flow into safer bonds like treasuries, which would in turn drive up the dollar?

  • MrBF

    its a bad idea. if we do get a big decline there will be a few days that will be up big as well which really hurts the 3x etf's. You are better off going with puts on the indices. Plus you are paying a huge premium for those calls on the 3x inverse etf's.

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    There we go! Stick…..

  • gmak

    ANother dump of the EUR, and Europe markets are closed now, no? ES is wobbling.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    .let's see how iii of 1 of 3 goes….

  • jaxon

    it looks like we are now completing an abc correction off of yesterdays high which presumably was wave 5 of C to complete Minute wave 2 of Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave 1 of Primary wave 3. how do ya do that, Mole? i'm completely out of breath. please note that the C wave of this correction ended in a triangle. also note that ALL minuette waves down today have been 5 wave impulse waves.

  • gmak

    In English, please….

  • Iguanadon

    We may be headed up or we may be headed down.

  • gmak

    That's what I thought….. lol

  • insite

    perfect.

  • Anonymous

    I’ll tell ya Steely, there’s a lotta tension building in the ol, SPX….I better start lookin’ for that girlfriend.

  • jaxon

    SPX. down we go?

  • dollar

    or sideways

  • Joe8888

    Weekly,,,,,UUP Update

    if i am right about the Dollar starting a big rally,,,,Oil is going to Dump,,and take the Indexes with it..imo

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • Osso

    chicken goldstocks…!!!!

  • dollar

    BKX/XLF both negative now

  • Osso

    my DZZ from yesterday…working OK….

  • http://retracementlevels.blogspot.com/ Wilson

    Few supports on the GBPUSD is in front

    1.5854
    1.5719
    1.5502

    If dollar gets strengthen further, we shall see further downside on the cable also

    Take some profit out at the respective levels

  • tradejane

    I think I've mentioned it before…stocks like PAAS & CENX make great shorts on a down day.

    You go SRS…next resistance at 10.22

  • jaxon

    LOL. Looks like we're headed in a southerly direction in the. SPX.

  • gmak

    What you say wouldn't impact the USD. Selling USD assets and buyig USD assets is curency neutral.

  • Osso

    PAAS will correct a lot……..big pullback…maybe a last bounce….then from there I am shorting it big….

  • Osso

    FCX…another sign….

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Anna, Good call on those AA Puts, it's taking it up the ass more than…… (feel free to add here.)

  • Iguanadon

    Isn't PAAS the easter egg coloring dye? Of course they'll go down, it isn't easter for 6 months! 😉

  • SpeedSkt1

    Look at how the 30 year has rallied the past weeks, while the dollar just went lower.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    XOM Whooooosh!!! Can Spy be far behind?

  • Nightwind

    cnbc just stated that prechter (over the wire) says the dollar has bottomed.

  • Osso

    HUI……lower low than yesterday….nice…

  • AudioTactics

    Short SPY at a b/e of 106.875

    I think we could see a break down today…

  • gmak

    Based on what? opinion or TA?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    For sure….I am pretty much in deflation camp…eventually. Getting tired of trying to predict how long this insanity can continue though. CAD, AUD, NZD, BRL (not sure), going to have some headwinds.

  • gmak

    TA (TD 5 min wave counts, BUY setup, TD PRessure) says that it's a high prob time to scalp a move back up to VWAP (1067.29) at least on SPX.

  • gannsecret

    Heres something I like when I get real bearish

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE

    Speakers on

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Too bad, I was hoping the dollar had bottomed, get it?

  • Osso

    v.good sound..!!!

  • AudioTactics

    We failed to breach the 1070 area once again for the 4th or 5th time depending on who you ask.

    In addition, intermarket themes such as a stronger dollar and higher rates (based on the increased likelyhood of tightening from the Fed) could also pressure equities.

    The day is also setting up to be a range day so I expect that we could test the lower part of today's range.

  • Osso

    its nice…… the slow grinding down….

  • gmak

    So, 1063 on the SPX, then. Hardly a sell off, no?

  • Osso

    todays weekly close …is important…!!!!

  • insite

    wow; good timing!

  • gannsecret

    Steveo,
    If you hold the same line long enough you will be right.

  • gmak

    Nope. Just TA, nerves, and stops.

  • AudioTactics

    We are most likely heading for 1040, then 1020.

    The reaction at 1020 will be the tell…

  • gmak

    Sure. Someday, but not today.

  • mattco

    The question is when? They way this market has been going it could be 6 months.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I feel like Mel Gibson in a movie …..HOLD…..HOLD……HOLD…..and then he gets tortured

  • standard_and_poor

    Good Morning Beautiful Rats!
    Today
    1. Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Obama.
    2. Liverpool throwing birthday bash for a dead man (lennon).
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IXX5gFBkfY

    Adding to longs at 1064 SPX.

  • Keirsten

    I agree, Steve. Last week they referred to the current state of things as, “subdued inflation.” There's our new PC term for deflation. LOL

  • gannsecret

    take a deep breath……………………………..

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Mole, enjoy the trip, you know that p2 will likely top while you are gone….so thanks for doing what you do, taking one for the team.

    Hell, I bought QLD yesterday for the team!

  • gmak

    While we wait for the market to wake up from its torpor…. Here is an article about preferences in female birds. It seems lower quality females prefer to hear the song of lower quality males. My opinion is that the females just like to think that there is a project that they can take on – to remake the male, so to speak 😉
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/82936

  • Keirsten

    I'm not using TRIN much since the AIG/FRE/FNM short squeeze pahlooza.. but it has been slowly trending up since yesterday.

  • mattco

    Does the market or any idiot on CNBC notice that dollar is climbing?

  • Keirsten

    I told him the same thing last night! LOLOL Last year when TK was on vacation we had some really great slides down.

  • gmak

    Remember: Correlation is not causality.

  • Nightwind

    spx trying re-enter wedge….good test of strength

  • mattco

    Agree. But all they keep mentioning is that the dollar is falling. Hello, not today. But I guess the script they are reading was written yesterday.

  • gannsecret

    Thats why you shouldn't watch

  • mattco

    Thanks. Usually don't.

  • Joe8888

    market lookin weak here,,,, 10 minSPY,,CHART,,,

  • Duuuuuude

    No, but they are forecasting that the Dow will hit 10,000 next week.

  • Osso

    WYNN….diving…!!!!!

  • gannsecret

    thats PERFECT……………..

    gotta go add the rest of the shorts

    see ya

  • Osso

    TBT keeps moving…..

  • Keirsten

    Yep… I'm still short WYNN too. 😉

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Osso

    not me….good 4 u…!!!!

  • tradejane

    Tell me about it…My first position for TLT filled at 95.80.

  • AudioTactics

    I think the market is tired and we could get there sooner than later. But yeah timing is everything…

    To me there are alot of signals including the blow-off top and reversal at 1080, a breakdown in corporate bonds, a failure of the main trend line from the March lows (semi-log scale) and then a failure on the back-test, the capitulation of many hardcore bears, the over-complacency of the bulls, the fact that everyone is telling me we are going to 1,100 at least, the recent deterioration in economic data, the end of QE, the beginning of the withdrawal of stimulus, a bounce in the dollar (guaranteed by Foreign Central Banks), the return of money market balances to pre-Lehman levels, the looming fundamentals and the list goes on…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    The weakest of the lemmmings are going over the cliff. Watch the goofy stocks like rOST

    http://screencast.com/t/90WKlyhbnTS

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    You guys know the “Go with what you Know” rule, right?

    I'm takling that notion today…
    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

  • humble1 ™

    yes, that works just fine; it’s right into the lap of that new moon. but i
    did not know about the mars thingy and thanks. here’s just part of my
    worksheet:

    1576 (ATH) -> 840 (10/10/08 price and momentum low) = 736 points

    10/11/07 (1576 high) + 736 cds = 10/17/09

    see it DOES nail cds! i’m glad i asked.
    .

  • standard_and_poor
  • gmak

    Based on what? opinion or TA?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    For sure….I am pretty much in deflation camp…eventually. Getting tired of trying to predict how long this insanity can continue though. CAD, AUD, NZD, BRL (not sure), going to have some headwinds.

  • gmak

    TA (TD 5 min wave counts, BUY setup, TD PRessure) says that it's a high prob time to scalp a move back up to VWAP (1067.29) at least on SPX.

  • gannsecret

    Heres something I like when I get real bearish

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE

    Speakers on

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Too bad, I was hoping the dollar had bottomed, get it?

  • Osso

    v.good sound..!!!

  • AudioTactics

    We failed to breach the 1070 area once again for the 4th or 5th time depending on who you ask.

    In addition, intermarket themes such as a stronger dollar and higher rates (based on the increased likelyhood of tightening from the Fed) could also pressure equities.

    The day is also setting up to be a range day so I expect that we could test the lower part of today's range.

  • Osso

    its nice…… the slow grinding down….

  • gmak

    So, 1063 on the SPX, then. Hardly a sell off, no?

  • Osso

    todays weekly close …is important…!!!!

  • insite

    wow; good timing!

  • gannsecret

    Steveo,
    If you hold the same line long enough you will be right.

  • gmak

    Nope. Just TA, nerves, and stops. And we're not there yet.

  • AudioTactics

    We are most likely heading for 1040, then 1020.

    The reaction at 1020 will be the tell…

  • gmak

    Sure. Someday, but not today.

  • mattco

    The question is when? They way this market has been going it could be 6 months.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I feel like Mel Gibson in a movie …..HOLD…..HOLD……HOLD…..and then he gets tortured

  • standard_and_poor

    : ) edited duplicate post.

  • Keirsten

    I agree, Steve. Last week they referred to the current state of things as, “subdued inflation.” There's our new PC term for deflation. LOL

  • gannsecret

    take a deep breath……………………………..

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Mole, enjoy the trip, you know that p2 will likely top while you are gone….so thanks for doing what you do, taking one for the team.

    Hell, I bought QLD yesterday for the team!

  • gmak

    While we wait for the market to wake up from its torpor…. Here is an article about preferences in female birds. It seems lower quality females prefer to hear the song of lower quality males. My opinion is that the females just like to think that there is a project that they can take on – to remake the male, so to speak 😉
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/82936

  • Keirsten

    I'm not using TRIN much since the AIG/FRE/FNM short squeeze pahlooza.. but it has been slowly trending up since yesterday.

  • mattco

    Does the market or any idiot on CNBC notice that dollar is climbing?

  • Keirsten

    I told him the same thing last night! LOLOL Last year when TK was on vacation we had some really great slides down.

  • gmak

    Remember: Correlation is not causality.

  • Nightwind

    spx trying re-enter wedge….good test of strength

  • mattco

    Agree. But all they keep mentioning is that the dollar is falling. Hello, not today. But I guess the script they are reading was written yesterday.

  • gannsecret

    Thats why you shouldn't watch

    They are on the same team with the “MisDirectors”

  • mattco

    Thanks. Usually don't.

  • Joe8888

    market lookin weak here,,,, 10 minSPY,,CHART,,,

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

    but in this market you never know,,,,watch for tail on the 10 min,,,,

  • Duuuuuude

    No, but they are forecasting that the Dow will hit 10,000 next week.

  • Osso

    WYNN….diving…!!!!!

  • gannsecret

    thats PERFECT……………..

    gotta go add the rest of the shorts

    see ya

  • Osso

    TBT keeps moving…..

  • Keirsten

    Yep… I'm still short WYNN too. 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Osso

    not me….good 4 u…!!!!

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Tell me about it…My first position for TLT filled at 95.80.

  • AudioTactics

    I think the market is tired and we could get there sooner than later. But yeah timing is everything…

    To me there are alot of signals including the blow-off top and reversal at 1080, a breakdown in corporate bonds, a failure of the main trend line from the March lows (semi-log scale) and then a failure on the back-test, the capitulation of many hardcore bears, the over-complacency of the bulls, the fact that everyone is telling me we are going to 1,100 at least, the recent deterioration in economic data, the end of QE, the beginning of the withdrawal of stimulus, a bounce in the dollar (guaranteed by Foreign Central Banks), the return of money market balances to pre-Lehman levels, the looming fundamentals and the list goes on…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    The weakest of the lemmmings are going over the cliff. Watch the goofy stocks like rOST

    http://screencast.com/t/90WKlyhbnTS

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    doublepost killed

  • standard_and_poor
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    100% short, last dry powder used thursday, now leave that screen alone!

  • Anonymous

    Steely-thinkin’ you made a good move. been looking at lots of charts and
    they all look like shorts to me. in addition, it appears like the bond
    market has cracked. look at LQD & TBT. this is reinforced by the FOMC
    chatter about exit strategy and interest rate hike. i think the bond market
    has had enough of the smoke and mirror BS. “pay no attention to the man
    behind the screen” crap. looking at the dollar it appears to have bounced.
    if not, it is very close.

    i am only 20% short. but if this thing is going where i think it’s going it
    won’t matter. with 7 kids i can’t afford too much risk all at once. i will
    add quickly as direction is confirmed. i also want to be able to play
    bounces on way down.

    best of luck and God help us all.

    jaxon

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    It should correct to 950-1000 but then again…

  • Anonymous

    surely we’ll get bounces @ 1040,1020,1000,975 and then there’s 950. getting
    through that mess and 875 will be interesting. but i think by Dec. of next
    year we should get it done and then some. we shall see. inflation,
    deflation, it really doesn’t matter. your looking at interest rates and
    taxes rising. that or collapse. what real choice have we? cut, cut, cut.
    but that will mean very unhappy constituents. there are no walnuts in
    Washington. salesmen and lawyers. that’s it. pain in one form or another
    lies straight ahead.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    by december 2010 we have still a lot to correct in real tems, I expect a drop and a rise by then (to extend to elections or just short of them)

  • Anonymous

    10.4. Still, there is no escaping the numbers. The longer these clowns ignore, or deny, the fact that we are broke the more pain. How long can they play it out? I think the jig is up. I think concern is growing globally which is why we’re getting gum service from FOMC but everyone now knows it’s just more of the same bullshit. Until we ACT to get our house in order it is just a screen. A socialist agenda with a willing democratic majority bodes ill for debt holders. This is not rocket science. Do our creditors actually expect to get paid?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    well, kinda expect in the long run, remember the 70’s?

    the us defaulted, usd when to shitland, but then recovered

    you still hold some very interesting assets and a politic/military position that will bring dividends for long

  • Anonymous

    THAT IS a very good point. We have been the western world police without pay for a very long time. We rebuilt Japan after WWll. It’s time for some slack you say. Hey, and the buck is backed by the best weaponry money can buy.

  • Anonymous

    Ask Saddam Hussein. Oh that’s right, we can no longer do that. If you will recall he was proposing to no longer accept dollars for oil.

  • Anonymous

    To explore this theme a little further, and at the risk of boring you,
    what do we have now? The Chinese are cutting separate deals with
    Brazil & Russia without the dollar. Hmmmm. Talk is escalating about
    world currency review. Long term US treasuries are losing their
    luster.

    Let’s review what really pulled U.S. out of the depression. Hmmm.
    How is it possible that all those Japanese bombers could hit Pearl
    Harbor without any warning whatsoever? Always seemed kinda strange to
    me.

  • Anonymous

    Do you think Americans will move toward a protectionist stance in lieu
    of paying the monstrous bill for the big party they’ve been throwing
    for the last 20 yrs.? My thinking is that this type of sentiment may
    emerge once the reality begins to really set in.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    agree on final point, nevertheless america was fully paid for its own interest policy. The rebuilding of europe and japan was a huge market, interventions have always been to insure american access to the markets it craves.

    no offense meant

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    that poor sod was our son of a bitch and iraq was a laic dream country in that region, he missunderstood when he asked if he could take kowait and latter bluffed to keep power and keep iran at bay. that was one royal screw up by the usa

  • Anonymous

    Absolutely none taken. In fact, I couldn’t agree with you more. We are going to have to learn to share the toys with the other children. If we all work together maybe we will actually learn something valuable.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    one point at a time, china has to keep an eye on brasil and russia as alternate sources for energy and as markets, but no big deal on that.

    Currency is a strange problem, gold related is dangerous por politicians, and as you mentioned usd has the finest army behind it. still no alternative that i can see, doesn’t mean usd won’t drop to less than 1/5000 th of a gold ounce, but that’s another issue.

    US treasuries, see USD

    I think USA was already out of the woods by their entry in wwii, but there were warnings and FDR wnated in, see leases to uk when usa usa was out

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    America never had a significant trade with the rest of the world (less than 40% ratio, when most european countries are above 100, ratio is export+imports over GIP). The states will either default or devalue and screw the rest. that will likely lead to a race…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    one thing hard to learn is … it was all a dream, the lifestyle rise from the 80’s onward is unsustainable.

    Politicians dreamt of a world where everybody would be above average LOL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    by the way, another problem with toys, 10 years ago I predicted first nuclear conflict post wwII by 2012 +-5 years, my guess is pakistan india, i could be wrong but the mumbar scene almost made me cry ingo

  • Anonymous

    That is the most likely region. I pray not. My thought is that biological is most efficient but less psychological impact. If you just want to get the job done you go with the biological Pandora’s Box.

  • Anonymous

    Steely-You seem quite knowledgeable. Where are you?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    biological is a wild card, you never are sure of putting it back in the box

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    nah, just curious. In Portugal

  • Anonymous

    Gotta go to dinner. Good talking with you. Look forward to talking with yoiu again soon.

    Ciao. Jaxon

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    have a nice dinner, see you latter