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Introducing Darth Mole
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Introducing Darth Mole

by The MoleAugust 8, 2014

Have you ever found yourself waiting for a good entry on a promising campaign just to see the market take off without you before you snatched a seat on the bus? Or perhaps you managed to get a good fill near an important inflection point but then had to watch the tape push sideways for hours or even days on end? Volatility is a double edged sword – it is the force that drives all markets and therefore leads to profits as well as losses. But more often than not it seems that volatility happens when we don’t expect it, but rarely when we do want the tape to start moving. Well, that is until now…

I am proud to announce that the Evil Speculator managed to secure the services of infamous Sith Lord Darth Mole, a powerful convert to the dark force bent on sticking it to the Republic, and who has sworn his obedience to our nefarious cause. As our infamy and rumors of our evil deeds are making their way throughout the trading galaxy the services of Darth Mole will play an important part in our mission toward market domination. I know what you’re thinking – he sure looks evil, but what does he do?

Well, for one he seems to be really good at digging tunnels, which may come really handy if one of our evil schemes happens to backfire. But more importantly he also excellent at predicting volatility – it’s almost uncanny. The blue outlined candles on this hourly EUR/USD chart shows you where Darth Mole sent us a warning. The yellow ones suggest that volatility is going to die down for a while. So let’s assume you are about to get positioned and receive a high volatility alert – obviously you may want to stick around and pay attention. During low volatility periods however it’s usually safe to hold back and wait for instructions.

Here’s what happened when we let Darth Mole loose on the crude futures. Pretty nice going there, obviously the very last low volatility prediction was a candle off – one of the worms in his breakfast cereal must have been bad. Now to be clear, Darth Mole is not a directional indicator of any kind – it only tells us when to expect impending volatility and it does that very well. But knowing when the tape is about to jump is a huge stride forward in our book – once again we are one step closer to our goal of market domination.

Here are the symbols we are currently running:

Forex: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD
Futures: ES, GC, CL, ZB, ZN

If there are any other symbols you would be interested in then please let us know in the comment section below or write me at admin@.

Now if you care about volatility (and as any self respecting trader you should) then here’s your chance to give Darth Mole a test run. We’re going to make it available for FREE throughout August to show you how awesome this is and being in sync with the market’s gyration can revolutionize your trading. You can sign up right now and enjoy your free ride for the rest of the month. If you want free Jabber alerts as well then send me an email to admin@ with your amember user id and the password you want. You will find step by step Jabber/XMPP instructions on the bottom of the CrazyIvan page.

I hope you will enjoy the new addition to our nefarious team. Please feel free to comment here and share any thoughts, suggestions, or ideas on how you plan to leverage this new tool in your arsenal.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
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  • wandering196

    Sign me up!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    On the signup page my sexy butterfly.

  • wandering196

    done, you know I am more like a moth!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • SS_JJ

    Looks great! Thanks Mole, I’ll try it out.
    BTW, the gold trade is awesome so far

  • ridingwaves

    CLVS trade- sold out remaining 1/3 of 36.10 Buy at 40.60

  • Ronebadger

    Pretty much all lower lows and lower highs…so I’m following the trend (for now)
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/229826273;

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent RW Congrats.

  • ridingwaves

    Bull Market Viagra not as potent as manufacturing was sent to China, thus yellen’s tiger penis extract has negative effect on market breadth…

  • ridingwaves

    nature is bitchin

  • stovis

    Cool concept. As for suggestions for other symbols, I would pick a lot of futures. /KC, /LE, /HE, /RB, /HO, /CL, /ZS

  • ridingwaves

    Thanks BL, though I probably exited too soon…my underlying issue is not letting winners keep running…
    chicken little

  • ridingwaves

    VIX is not fazed by this move yet..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    is VIX ever fazed?
    hell, does it ever make sense?
    😉

  • BobbyLow

    Ya but you could have been gapped and whacked as well. There’s a reason why the Beta on Bio is so high.

    I’ll never forget some advice that I received from a really successful guy I met a long time ago who said “I never worry about the deal I didn’t make”.

    You didn’t hold on to it and the couldas, wouldas and shouldas are all deals that you didn’t make. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    I’ve been playing it for last couple weeks…I won’t say with what symbol so I don’t get banned…but I ran a Williams and RSI 10 day on 10-60 minute time frames to find some entries and exits…scalping for dollars…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Opened a Long position on USD/CAD and took another bite of a Short on USD/JPY this morning. I avoided the CAD this week until now because it had Major Announcements almost every single day. The JPY might have more to go. The NZD through my lens has appeared to be range bound over the past 4 days. So after closing the NZD position last night, I’m neutral on this one until it decides to shit or get off the pot. . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I stole this idea off an old man several years ago. so I can’t take credit.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27833745928

    be careful when the 19 & 39 get close.

    as always – never say never

  • ridingwaves

    2 coulda woulda sholdas in a row can mess with ya though…Exits is where I need the work…

  • BobbyLow

    I hear ya. I found establishing proper Exits and Stops to be one if not the most difficult thing in this business. One of the reasons I like Forex so much is because it runs 24/7 and rarely do I ever get “gapped” out.

    But that aside, IMO, this is more difficult with stocks especially Bio because I believe they tend to be more volatile than most. FBOW, I do have an idea for you though. How about going back over as many of your trades that you can and back test them to see what the Average Favorable Excursion (AFE) would have been? This way, you might have somewhat of a reasonable idea of what you could expect. In other words is your AFE $2, $3, $4, $6, or higher? This by no means meant to be an exact science but your last batch of CLVS made $4.50. How would this amount stack up against an AFE? If this is not practical you might want to work some form of a Heisenberg series of stops based on R, this would leave the final portion of your position on a trailing stop. In any event, there must be a way to improve and or at least be satisfied with your method of exiting a position.

    My limited experience trading Bio is that you can have runs that seem like they are never going to quit. And then there were the Shooting Star Runs that Spike and Fizzled quickly. So I understand that this might be difficult but perhaps all the more reason to establish some kind of base AFE or Heisenberg Stops to work from.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Crude was already there actually, I just added copper and soybeans. I don’t have a Nybot data feed on that system – if a few folks sign up for it end of the month then I may add it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Also added RB (gasoline) – it JUST triggered a slow volatility cycle, missed it by a few minutes at the roll over.

  • dragan ilic

    retest of 1923 incoming…Monthly, weekly, daily chart infection point…. good long opportunity….Tape looks like slow melt up today….

  • ridingwaves

    excellent idea, will take a bit of work but might be the catalyst I need to improve on exits..

  • dragan ilic

    Smells good to me:)

  • Billabong

    Get through 1925.75 and short squeeze on….

  • Darkthirty

    16575 Gap DJI

  • dragan ilic

    Funny how a violent move in 1 direction is followed up by a violent move back. Natural laws right ?

  • Darkthirty

    If “algo fuckery” is natural………

  • dragan ilic

    Algo or not…. we are about to paint a cute little hammer on weekly chart if 1923 lasts today… Hell i think bulls will we happy with a dodjo ….:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Symmetry in Nature is beautiful.
    🙂
    http://s3.postimg.org/a2afzlyoj/butterfly.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Algo my ass – these games were played way back in the days. Trapping some bears into shitty shorts and yanking vega back on a Friday can be expected. Nothing new under the sun.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not much of a response reg. Darth Mole here – I think you guys may not grasp the magnitude of what this offers :-/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I bet King Solomon had his cronies pull some stuff back in the Biblical days.
    he didn’t get wealthy off his looks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Rock & Roll 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    Reminiscent of the call made down wall street in 08?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re *that* old?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nah – this is a walk in the park compared with 08.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Believe me, Bathsheba was hot. Really Hot!
    =P

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Captain’s privileges.

    I’d be banned for such, *ahem* postings.

  • ridingwaves

    that’s worth fighting for….beautiful symmetry..10+

  • Scott Phillips

    I’ve been using Darth Mole for several weeks now and I can assure you it is a total game changer for intraday traders. I have absolutely no way of predicting direction but with it I can have a very good idea where my biggest winners are going to come from, and also if a trade loses, at a volatility event where it is a good candidate for reentry.

    If you run an existing FX or emini system of your own design this should slot right in and help you weed out bad trades

  • Scott Phillips

    We talked about this last week. Strength late in a move is most often a sign of the terminal stage

  • Scott Phillips

    There was no algo fuckery here. What happened overnight was a very unusual thing, a real human with a big account playing a game, and obvious to those who saw it coming. Which is why we posted about it. If it was a single player who tipped the after hours action off it only took around $20 million in margin to do it. Most likely it was a number of people with the same idea.

    Very clever, and its all in the game.

  • Scott Phillips

    Better than Average Favorable Excursion is a histogram with all of the maximum favorable excursions. You can see very clearly what periods you should optimize your exit algo for.

  • Billabong

    It was an early morning play that started around 4 am EST / 9 am GMT … I thought to myself, here we go again, down, down, down. Then the buying started … 5 hours later we’re green.

  • Scott Phillips

    And I think my previous post “I call bullshit” pretty much sums it up. Hope you acted on it

  • Billabong

    Pattern recognition….

  • Scott Phillips

    It is extremely rare that it is *possible* to manipulate the market.Today was one of those days

  • Billabong

    I went long YM … 1R+ … moved stop to BE.

  • Billabong

    Once something gains MOMO from a recognizable shift, it takes on a life of its own. I’m sure other traders piled in once it became apparent the market was moving up. I saw those hammers and wondered how many people after NYSE open would go back and see where this came from.

  • Billabong

    The market taking the beating is R2K … from 3 mo high to last night’s low, TF was down 8.75% compared to ES at 4.8%

  • Scott Phillips

    Nice!

  • Kidd Cudi

    you almost sent me to imgur.com/r/ass
    but I have restraint.
    barely.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Meh – it’s weekend and the girls have already left for the beach 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    beer time?…
    BEER time.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Prost!

  • Ronebadger
  • strider

    Darth email and jabber alerts coming thru no problem

  • Scott Phillips

    If you prepare the histogram I’ll show you how to build an optimal exit algo for it

  • Scott Phillips

    USDCAD looks good. I just got out of my usdjpy short at close (my rules tell me a hammer candle first candle is a sign of weakness and should get out). Still short copper, in profit. If USDJPY breaks daily high I’ll be long on Monday. Also short crude on break of the daily shooting star

  • Darkthirty

    got x2 profit out of the deal…..familiar with nanex?

  • dragan ilic

    Still it was a close call. Viewing this chart, bears really went all in… Close is not enough tho.

  • BobbyLow

    I actually closed all of my original USD/JPY Short last night after it dropped like a rock on the JPY Statement and that was a nice trade. By rule I should have kept 1/2 overnight but I didn’t. I had an opportunity to short at a higher level this morning so I went back in for a half. If and when it runs more to the upside, I’ll have no problem flipping to a long.

    What really cracks me up is that it’s like all the stuff that went on after the JPY announcement last night really didn’t happen but I know it did. One day later and all is forgotten. That’s what I love about this game. 🙂

    All and all, I had an OK week but I know you had an outstanding one!

    Congrats and have a great weekend Scott.

  • dragan ilic

    Missed that…. Terminal stage? What is that?

  • newbfxtrader

    Alright who listened when I said JBTFD? Have a good weekend.

  • dragan ilic

    Mhhmmm… By the way, doesn´t that look like inverted HS formation? In that case it would line up perfectly with 1965 SPX

  • Scott Phillips

    If you post those in ADVANCE you will get some serious chops for it.

    Posting them after the fact is the worst kind of curve fitting 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    The week was just ok, nothing special. On target, no serious mistakes

  • Scott Phillips

    What’s your point? Had nothing to do with algos

  • phylum

    Probably won’t be resolved that easily IMO … look at the time space

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s good as we had some problems with the trend alerts for some reason.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s good as we had some problems with the trend alerts for some reason.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s good as we had some problems with the trend alerts for some reason.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s good as we had some problems with the trend alerts for some reason.

  • Malcolm O’Hara

    I look at Dragon’s chart, and say to myself: what the F am I
    to conclude from that?

    No offence intended. Is that supposed to mean a long term
    support has held?..And the trend line has three touch points, over 13 months and that
    makes it valid? If you believe that, what do you buy? I’m short sighted. I have no idea what will
    happen a day from now. I believe markets and sentiment change throughout the day,
    week, month.. there is no trend, except in hindsight. From my perspective, I look at the day. Do I buy TNA, or do I buy TZA. If at 15:45 I am +3%, I may carry over as a covered bet, I have no idea what to expect.

  • newbfxtrader

    TNA is a pullback in an uptrend. Yeah its a buy until 62.50 holds. But you already had two chances. Its unlikely to hold next time around. You have a good trading plan with these 3x ETFs?

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/udZW6L4W/

    You can try a long at 52.50 or so.

  • Scott Phillips

    Well I don’t use trendlines myself, I find them too subjective, but as trendlines go that one has 4 touches and is not the worst one I’ve ever seen. It wouldn’t be the trendline I would use, but each to their own. The inherent problem with trendlines, when I am bullish I draw them differently that when I am bearish.

    I think that Dragan’s point is valid, it came very very close to a downside breakout, saved at the last second by dip buyers.

    As for what to buy, if you are charting SPX the obvious thing to buy is emini s&p futures, or SPY ETF.

    What do I think of the price action? The trend is up, clearly and indisputably. We have early evidence of a potential trend change, which will depend on how strong the bounce which will probably come is. If the bounce is weak we will probably start a decent tradeable downside correction. If the bounce is strong, dip buyers will come from the sidelines and we start a new leg up. A trend as strong as this one you would expect a retest of the highs to be tradeable. Personally I wouldn’t trade the bounce as I think the risk:reward is only about 1:1 and I would like to be taking at least 2:1 trades

  • Scott Phillips

    That uptrend was broken mid april. The first time it fails to make a higher high it is no longer an uptrend. Most likely that is a trading range

  • Malcolm O’Hara

    Firstly, thanks for the input. I work in 30 min, 15 and 5 minute
    time frames.

    I allow a trade 30 minutes to resolve or -1%, I’m out. Then
    I cut the grass.

    I am right or I am wrong. Period. Not a lot of rules, I know.

  • newbfxtrader

    I see what you mean. The July high was unable to exceed the previous high. Still think its risky to buy here. Maybe next support down 52.50 or so.

  • Scott Phillips

    Agree not much of a trade

  • dragan ilic

    Hello Malcolm. I dont consider my self knowing of what way tape will move, i will not either fight it. This chart was pure observation. As Scott also says, very close to downside breakout, saved by the bell. At the moment i am bullish above 1923 SPX, Actually i started buildin my long positions after that overnight washout. At 1900 SPX I invested like 20 % of my portfolio in long positions. When we got above 1914 SPX( EMA 20 WEEKLy) i invested another 30 %. When we breached 1923 my portfolio was 75 % long positions.

    1 of my rules is to never act on spikes. Spikes up or spikes down because these moves often screw you over. So when this market spiked down heavily for a couple of days 1991- 1908 SPX, then u get another move 1908-1895 SPX then the real objective though was that the market acted on panic and fear. Come on, there is people who went short at 1991 SPX, dont think the market will let em enjoy all the time. Its time to mindfuck those people. My english is not that good, hope you understand my point.

    Lookin at this chart also tells us that every time that trendline was touched we created another ALL time high. I dont say it will happen this time to, but i will neither not rule out another touch at upper bollinger bands or a new ATH.

    As Mole says she is a cruel Mistress. But she (SPX/market) is also showing lots of mercy. Often the market gives us a second chance. Highs and lows get retested.Its up to us how much pain we can take untill she stress us out. What i have in mind is, dont forget that market still might be on her way to show mercy for those people who bought NASDAQ at the tops in 2000 when IT collapse accured. Notice that in this decline it was DOW J which showed lot of weakness. NASDAQ was doing fine.

    I am a bit drunk, hope it makes any sense… G night

  • dragan ilic

    Dont want to spam this wall, but i gotta share this chart to. I admit, i fish for all information this market gives me. Its free. Candle formations are early signs of what buyers and seller´s do. This is a Weekly chart, and it shows how bulls have dominated the bears every time market creates a weekly closey and hammer formation above 20 EMA.( blue line )
    Every “Hammer” resulted in a move to upper Bollinger Bands .

  • Darkthirty

    Friday was a nice zigzag………………..

  • Scott Phillips

    I think the highest probability right now is a deep retest of the highs. A lower probability would be breaking out for another leg up. A very very minor possibility is a new leg down from here.

    I think the technical situation, which was very unclear last week, has finally become clear.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Awesome chart!

  • Scott Phillips

    Agree. I think the odds are we don’t get back to old highs, but shit…. betting against this market hasn’t been smart, historically

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If the tape is making you guess – wait for new instructions.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I see how it is.

    I post, and it’s and “nothing happens 4 times”.

    dragan posts a chart and it’s KUDOS.

    {snicker}

    http://s4.postimg.org/48w0p44dp/rat_sniper.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • mugabe

    This may sound like/be a stupid observation, but as $spx/spy are composites whose price is determined by their consitituents, does it make sense to talk of buying or selling pressure and candlestick formations on them, when their price is not detemined by the direct buying and selling of them? I’m not talking about the emini, etc.here.

  • mugabe

    For general information, I’ve been reading a (to me) good book about tape reading with special emphasis on candlesticks and volume. It costs the grand total of 5 bucks on kindle, so you’re not risking much if you get it.

    http://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Price-Analysis/dp/1491249390/ref=la_B00CYN13VQ_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407695070&sr=1-1

    The book takes a while to get going, but once it does there’s lots of good stuff. It’s basically trying to help you to determine what the big players (ie the winners) are doing, and by extension what the losers are doing. I’ve heard this idea before -ie identify the losers and do the opposite – but the book gives practical form to this idea.

  • mugabe

    v risky posting when drunk- but you got way with it unscathed 🙂

  • dragan ilic

    Thx boss…glad you like it 🙂

  • dragan ilic

    I agree.

  • dragan ilic

    unscathed…did somebody say scottich whisky 🙂

  • dragan ilic

    When i dont see any clear paths which way the tape is about to go, then i dont trade Index, i pick 1-2 stocks which are generlly daily winners and have good trading volumes. Before i start trading that stock i give it 2-3 hours and look for special formations on Intraday. Usually when you find a good case, that stock will keep being strong for 2-3 days. I guess late buyers start jumpin in.

    So when i get a winner, i let em run a day or 2 atleast.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jealousy – anger’s ugly cousin.