Now Reading
Traps Galore
261

Traps Galore

by The MoleMay 7, 2019

Bankwalker posted a pretty insightful comment yesterday, which summarized the morbid game that’s currently being played in equities: “Some people with very deep pockets used the very high leverage of index futures contracts during overnight hours when stocks weren’t trading to push down the market by manufacturing a false crisis based on an insignificant non-newsworthy event so they could buy cheaper from weak people that had unwarranted fear.” Well said and I couldn’t have put it any better.

Participants are often quick to jump on a spurious rationale that’s being spun by the financial media without questioning the underlying premise of the claims that are being made. Not that I am going to suggest trading against public perception which we all know does have the ability to move markets. But I do propose caution before blindly basing one’s trades on a false/fake paradigm that is obviously aimed at luring hapless traders into losing positions.

Case in point: the ongoing China trade deal saga, which as of late has riled equities into a hissy fit that has sidelined many participants in disgust as trading has become tantamount to betting on red or black at a Vegas roulette table.

May as well grab a flight there and at least be served watered down drinks with tiny umbrellas by scantily clad cuties pretending that I’m a stud. And the tales I’m being told are at least somewhat entertaining and maybe even ‘based on on a true story’.

I mean none of this China trade deal rationale makes any sense. Why would equities (or the Dollar) fall on the prospect of a failure of this trade deal in the first place? We’ve been bitch slapping China with import tariffs left and right since Trump took the helm.

So even if you disagree with Trump’s politics or hate his guts for whatever political reason it’s very hard to argue against the fact that our economy has been running on five cylinders for over two years now.

And clearly the absence of a trade deal or being at odds with China has neither stifled our economy nor has it prevented equities from climbing to new all time highs, has it now? No, we’re doing just fine – thank you very much – it’s been everyone else that’s been suffering.

Grab a globe and point at one country that is in better economic shape right now than the United States of America. Europe (lead by Germany) is about to implode economically. And I’m dead serious. There actually have been recent suggestions by high profile German politicians to confiscate homes held by real estate companies and to nationalize their own automotive industry.

During Merkel’s tenor Germany has been getting rid of coal and nuclear power whilst completely neglecting their physical and digital infrastructure. As a German you may get better Internet access during your vacations in Turkey than at home where broadband access is almost non-existing. I somehow don’t sense a rosy future for the Krauts there. Glad I got my butt out of there a long time ago.

China is on the brink and thinks it can play mind games with the economic powerhouse that has enabled its rise. Who did they think they’re messing with ? Mama Merkel, ‘Paris Burns’ Macron, or ‘Dancing With Indians’ Trudeau? Oh I’m sorry, did someone just trip over one’s own delusions of grandeur and superiority?

Russia – well, it’s Russia and Putin’s playing the cards he’s being dealt. But at least the women there are smoking hot so they’ll be okay no matter what. Honestly if I was born Russian I’d be on welfare and just prowl the streets all day. Don’t tell my wife.

And South America is just starting to come around now that Brazil is pointing the way after finally shaking off the shackles of liberal socialism. Also has hot women – but I’ll never convince my wife to move there, she knows me too well. If I was investing outside of the U.S. (and I just may) then Brazil would be the first place I’d look at, but it’s a long con that probably doesn’t pay off before retirement.

Also the timing of this whole China whipsaw is highly suspect as the bear’s technical double top scenario clearly is a dangling carrot most institutional players would have a hard time passing up. Well – perish the thought!

Okay now let’s take a look at something real – something based on actual facts. Price – specifically the price action on the E-Mini futures, which is clearly in the process of painting lower lows and lower highs. And that is bearish but there is a problem. I cannot be bearish – or bullish – in a situation where the market’s direction changes more often than a hare called Arnold.

Plus the current uptrend has not officially been broken yet. There’s simply too much noise and I’m not in the habit of taking contrarian trades (fail a dozen times) and then later claim having caught the top (paging Mr. Prechter!). Yes, I’d love to be bullish here but please see above – lower highs and lower lows – so that’s a non-starter.

In summary: This thing will have to play itself out first before I’m even remotely interested in throwing my hat into this ring. Play stupid games win stupid prices. A younger more exuberant (and less experienced) market mole would have spent hours poured over his charts attempting to predict the market’s next direction.

Fortunately I know better now. If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the past decade then it is that it’s crucial to only participate when the tape is easy and actually gives you a fair shot at banking coin. Easy market – we trade. Shitty market – we watch. Yes it’s that simple – everything else is just noise and subterfuge.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • evilasevildoes

    cwazeeee mokit

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Excellent post. I’m tied up with a flip house, and it’s a good time to be in that position. I look at my charts and I see a chop fest. I’ll wait.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    FYI – Tony and I are a working on some EXTREMELY cool option material which will be available later this year. Because in situations like these with spiked IV there are a ton of option plays we could be doing. But I can’t just start posting those – we’ll have to guide everyone into this step by step.

  • ridingwaves

    I agree, an Instant Mole classic…….the economy is hotter than Georgia Asphalt……Our company is growing at 10% a month….Boise is booming, a small high desert town now beginning to sprawl……the doomsayers are just easily led, sheeple flocked by their views that are distorted by the very thing they covet like news, social media, talking heads….etc…..2020, now that will be somewhat different….because everything in the world is going to be done to prevent another term for the Trump….everything….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks guys – appreciate the enthusiasm. And I didn’t even feel like posting but sometimes it just flows.

  • HD

    BW and Mole. Nice comments. The globex gaps have been the weapon of choice for a few years now. Mostly agree with the comments about the economy as well. My household included has enjoyed the new policies too. What we may not agree on is the actually price action in equities as being ok and not hypersensitive to news. I don’t think it’s a straight comparison to other markets. Trumps market is schitzo. IMO it takes a while to turn a cruise ship but it’s turning. It’s been a good run but the 20% hit was just a warning shot IMO.
    Bull market action vs blow off and distribution action shown on charts. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4540760bffcb8cd79dcc6a1769eab7d84ccc7c450d38a4fb43b82a5c69680c41.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    It wants to look that way to confound, confuse….and throw as many as possible off the bus.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • HD

    Ask a farmer in the heartland about Trumps tariffs. We all worry about socialism-subsidies for all is a direct path.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Nice chart – Agree with your comments especially – “it takes a while to turn a cruise ship”
    Think that’s what we are witnessing – may take a while –

  • HD

    If you don’t like equities don’t forget about the monster rally in BTC, cracked 6000 🙂

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Julie mentioned DAX yesterday – they were BTD yesterday – today could be nervy
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fdf2f5f0a993f32aba566a8f46d41dff064fbdd6d7146576fa646374cff11c50.png

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks, have a Drs. Appt. and will be gone for a good chunk of the day but in the meantime:

    I remember reading somewhere (perhaps from Jesse Livermore) that news doesn’t actually move the markets but it does exacerbate a move that was ready to take place anyway. I think this could be true but that’s just my HO.

    Anyhow, I’m liking the new Micro ES Futures /MES. I hope to be able to move to 2 Contracts soon and then maybe 3. By that time maybe I’ll have the balls to trade the regular /ES. I’m not having any problem with fills or spreads whatsoever. The price and spreads have been exactly the same as /ES.

    Got the majority of my profit taken away on that rip your face off move around 4:30 PM yesterday but that was OPM so whatever. Went short /MES this AM and this is helping to offset what’s happening to my Long BIO that is getting close to being eligible to being flipped.

    Just trying to tip toe through the tulips loaded with cow pies and land mines. . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Excellent commentary.
    and I do remember when Mole would pour over the whacky zigzag Market.
    (ah, those were the days)

    BTW, I know this Ukrainian girl, very beautiful – I wouldn’t get much done too.

    speaking of, I get no signal, long or short. You intraday slingers, have my respect!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c35b7eea7028863a36ebeb284a767b4d4664ae9efaec7810ede3c08ac9fd2a5f.png

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Tony had promised a few additional guest posts. Any chance we can get those, pretty please?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yeah, I want to try some day trading stuff with the micro. Today is a good day for it, but I’ll miss most of it working on the house.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Cow pies in Arizona dry out dam fast, desiccate into firewood.
    So you must mean *Fresh* ones. LOL.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Agree wholeheartedly.

  • HD

    They hammered 2900, see if they test the strength of those sellers.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ever since you showed me the magic gap, trick.

    I’ve been curious!!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffb199cd43a543ec9e35ce1455a74b99f240918a8da0922d9c754dc6c10b6eb2.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    There looks like some volume hole below us here…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Aaarg. Well they outsmarted me. How hard was that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Europe closes in 30 to 45 minutes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Keep hunting mate, I’m sure you’ll get that Dino in the end.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/-jmDlMNNero/maxresdefault.jpg

  • Sp00nman

    I dumped my remaining position of uvxy at 39 today.. Not gonna bitch too much, don’t have time to screen watch lately.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…I’ve been keeping it pretty close, today has been entering more soxs. Things like this can too-easily accelerate.

  • BobbyLow

    Set trail on /MES and stopped at +20 Points. No biggie but I didn’t want to give it back again like yesterday.

    EDIT: Also stopped on LABU for -.2 R Loss and still Long Wheat which is somehow miraculously still holding up.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One word summary “Excellent” Chief and BW
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    I dabbled a bit in Tasty Trade (https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/) pretty cool stuff.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW in a post below mentioned that Boise is booming. Another Boomer is Spokane. The talk in Washington State is always Seattle but Spokane is where it’s at also
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Still holding /NQ and /YM shorts from Friday. Moving stops down…

  • mSquare

    $INTC – Added to long as it bounced off at $50.14 without breach of prior low of $50.12 last week. Will exit quickly as this market and Semi(s) have become too whippy!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p04152258093

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Disclosure Bought a small position SLV this a.m. off the bounce 5 ema @ 13.94 Will add with a bullish close above 14. Will short BAC with a bearish close below 29.95. Will post when I pull trigger NOW Guys I stated to watch Bonds TLT Bond market 7 times larger than the equity market and almost always gets it right. When the bond market and equities are in a dog fight as presently Julie goes with the bond market Shown TLT Daily chart above an important resistance and above cloud TLT 5 – 21 and 55 ema’s in a bullish alignment with all above an uptrending 233 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c88ecfdbf07e2b4fd42cd5adefb6836a336da1709d2b66cf7e703a1f9b661383.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bought NUGT today 14.5 but stop close by this area for your metals trade

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV 60 min chart Price above cloud with MACD above center line with conversion line (8) above baseline (21) Again as stated in post below will add with a bullish close above 14 JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Hang in there Bro !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Where is YODA ? Chasing girl Yoda’s ? I think so !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $TNX I showed this chart yesterday to watch as $TNX at lower cloud boundary and a support. Today Yup A break below cloud and support Guys this does not bode well for the Banks Any crap from the financial channels and talking heads about how great the Banks are is full of “POOP” The banks have been under performing and need the higher rates JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6649ac67c4896dd9f5428fe91a6901fd31bb99b366675d21e874542af4f0643.png

  • Darkthirty

    Can’t expect you would with a daily chart… Try a smaller timeframe

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well getting one more trade pales in comparison to getting your Mother’s Day card out on time! Reminder for all you traders….. don’t forget MOM! (choosing pictures now)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hit by a gold truck, ironically. (at least that’s the rumor)
    http://www.trbimg.com/img-5575f957/turbine/ct-gold-truck-alcoholic-ice-cream-chicago

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    already? !@#$@#$$

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    We don’t need expensive gifts (chuckle!) Just a simple “I Love You”
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As stated in a previous post initial target SPX down to approx 2850 – 2860 meeting the rising 55 ema ; support and upper daily cloud boundary If it occurs then perhaps a bounce to a lower high where the real short occurs JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8e4f057b5e64e25ea8c29df8ceb14bcb84afb63a9f98a8d17fbe9742abac83f0.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Sounds like our Brit friends are getting chilled.
    Solar Minimum b!tchz.

    https://www.kayak.com/flight-routes/London-LON/Phoenix-Sky-Harbor-Intl-PHX

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sayz the rich coug.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The anthem of the nerds.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah – Tom Sosnoff knows his stuff for sure. Good stuff.

  • zzezzezz

    yeah right, i’ve heard that one before…. 😉
    $5000 Louis Vuitton bag coming right up!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s been actually snowing yesterday in Italy, Switzerland, and Slovakia. This f…ing winter simply doesn’t want to leave. I mean we are only a few weeks away from June for crying out loud.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    INTC As stated in a post and chart last night on previous thread A real dog fight at lower cloud boundary and support. Needs to have a positive close above it’s 5 ema DIS too https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/072e800e52058a17b9ec77a53710f2130d55fb508c1859876486f11d0b7660a4.png needs a positive close above it’s 5 ema Shown INTC Daily chart JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief we had snow in the valley last week. Still cold here but starting to warm up
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    define….”warm”.
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Anything above freezing. Seriously in MT 50 degrees is actually t shirt weather. In winter GG MT can get what is called a Chjnook which is a warm wind from the north and you can be outside in a t shirt. NOW A blue northern or a Mariah is a different story We had many Mariah’s this winter Many years ago Disney had a movie called Mariah featuring a Montana storm.A huge Mariah occurred in the 50’s in Montana trapping many people (travellers) residents know the story
    JULIE

  • HD

    Anybody buying?

  • HD

    Speaking of rich couga. Was up in your neck of the state last weekend. Played McCormick Golf Ranch with the old money folks.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nope HD Not with the bust thru the 21 ema Perhaps @2850 – 2860 per chart and comment below
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    nope – short

  • Darkthirty

    Read my mind…..the green close? will be profitable

  • Darkthirty

    Morels are coming up small, 40s at night doesn’t help…

  • nirav777

    mayne 2877-2872… but need Zero

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Nope. Short. Will cover when VIX hits 22.5 (or if my stops are taken out)

  • HD

    -55. I like the 77’s will give them a try

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Another chart showing 2850 – 2860 initial target Support matching 55 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f4b88fe935b626997de326a7a64eae4d0b202c73bae4a1bfa17a436bee34217.png ema and lower Keltner Channel JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI 44, go get’tem!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    QQQ’s
    I don’t think 185 will hold intraday, but may be the closing level.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff4a94f46818d346d0211bbb28b4fbc5e235e67dc4e36c7cc41d64eec3da5ac6.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You got it GG I believe two days ago we had 2850 – 2860 pegged If so there could be a bounce to a lower high We watch momentum and volume on proposed bounce up to the 5 and 21 ema’s The rally from December could be finished as I stated i.e. double top then a correction which is what I was looking for We will know soon GG
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty

    got a SPX fib at 2858……

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 we are on the same page
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Careful….Ralph Elliot used Fibonacci #s, ya might get banned!

  • zzezzezz

    and that aligns with the 50 SMA

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    one bikini pic? she has no worries.

  • Darkthirty

    The REAL question is why is the PPT / FRB standing aside?

  • Darkthirty

    If I posted one, i’d get banned for sure!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Uranus.
    (I couldn’t resist!)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BooYah
    I think Mole will grant LIFETIME membership at this point.
    LOL.

  • Darkthirty

    “We are about to begin a time band containing several important geocosmic signatures with historical correlations to reversals in many markets, April 22 through May 18. This time band will be bookended by the Sun/Uranus conjunction on April 22 and the Venus/Uranus conjunction May 18. Both involve Uranus, which makes this a very challenging period for both investors and market analysts, since Uranus pertains to the unpredictable. In most cases, such periods coincide with reversals. But in a surprisingly large percentage of cases, such Uranus signatures also have coincided with sharp breakouts of well-defined resistance and support zones, leading to new highs in some markets and new lows in others. The stock market is nearing new highs…. this surge up to new highs can be associated with the Sun/Uranus conjunction in Taurus (money and stocks) this Monday, April 22. It is possible that these breakouts will continue, or resume, near the time when Venus conjoins Uranus on May 18, again in Taurus, the ruling of sign of Venus.”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Nice NUGT Trade IMO now watch 15.52 Above that YEAH BRO ! The PM.s ! I have SLV and will add bullish close above 14
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Nice. Do you have a link to the source site please? @Darkthirty

  • Darkthirty
  • BKXtoZERO

    Ya….. I really wanted to try jumping on tvix but what kind of man trades his mom for one more hit of tvix? Pictures done. Card bought… Going to post office.

  • Darkthirty

    Looks like you could use a hand…………..

  • Darkthirty

    Out, but not buying…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to lunch!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You better stick around GG Bikini picture contemplated
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    382 retrace, one more shot..

  • Darkthirty

    No vids?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi D30 Last year we went to Hawaii for a vacation I have some beach photos but better not show very scantily clad
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    That’d be like grilling rib eyes in a homeless camp…….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ok Guys A picture taken by a photographer just before wedding I knew my husband only several weeks before I married him. When I met him I knew right away he was the guy i would spend the rest of my life with I was 26 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe8a3ebc31924e48d42e6a90d12a71e3045f63c66f990ba519e66cb7e6a250e7.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    A lot nicer to see than these damm charts 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Wow….

  • Darkthirty

    Anyone run a poke and finger chart?

  • HD

    Ha! I’m stealing that. Too funny

  • BKXtoZERO

    No Queen videos from me today… Very sad. You have all been spared.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Now short BAC .. Work piling up Everyone have A Great rest of Day !
    JULIE

  • HD
  • mSquare

    It blew my first stop by making a $49.93 intraday low earlier today. Unless it (and other Semis) make a reversal in the next hour will exit with the small loss (before it becomes sticky and a bigger loss)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m back.
    well? end of the world and gnashing of teeth?..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..and now we know why Grizz really carries a gun.
    https://www.budsgunshop.com/catalog/images/15070_1.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys BAC My target approx 28.85 – 28.90 matching a support ; 89 ema and upper cloud boundary. If wrong not wrong long JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3cadfdf8f21e6ff935f1c397ae75ee7b3679f258adf0ab1a7aff8ca9ac88387a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. LOL! I must now get some work done !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Dang. Looks like the market deficated the bed while I was out.

    Sitting on mostly dry powder for now and will wait for an entry.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Language!
    😉

  • Darkthirty

    PPT? Things are getting hinkey………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no. you may have forgotten. bears take profits for the day.
    and ADD in the morning.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Covered everything. 100% cash. Thinking about going long….

  • Darkthirty

    6 pts off the SPX fib

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not worried about an overnight gap down, eh?
    =P

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    People bag on the bears but the entire month of April gains was just erased in 2 sessions. Maybe why short sellers don’t mind the pain.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Yeah, I’d probably scalp only. But I think I hesitated and missed my opportunity. That was a quick 10 handle jump on /ES….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Man’s got to follow his rules.”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD Staircase up and elevator down
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you had work to DO. stop procrastinating!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Hanging tough above it’s 5 ema and VWAP 60 min chart very positive i.e. above 60 min cloud and 60 min moving averages bullish. Watching BAC approx 29.40 which is a 38.2% retracement and a fan line. IMO going lower to target listed in chart below. BAC stop approx breakeven
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I can multi task like you would not believe Always one eye on market and positions LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    One kid on the hip, another hand over the stove, and an eye out the window of when *is* hubby coming home!
    LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    CLOSE YOUR BOOKS.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Exactly – it’s always been like that since our great granddads were trading. Nothing new under the sun.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’d marry that. Don’t tell my wife.

  • BobbyLow

    Had an opportunity to put on 1/2 position Short BIO (LABD) on last minute short covering. It’s a viable short by my rules no matter how it got there so gotta do. . .

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO :-))

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yeah ! BAC A bearish close below 29.95 with a volume increase over yesterday Distribution !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    The charts are there for all to see and maybe I need to look hard at history but I think this straight up or straight down stuff is a modern day phenomenon.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Now back to work ! Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day ! Tonight is Portland Trailblazers – Denver Nuggets NBA Playoff game in Denver What a series tied at two a piece
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Glad for you….ding them for me.

  • BobbyLow

    Getting close to a Long scalp on /MES. Need a little more movement. Might have to wait until after the 6 PM Open.

    Man I love this shit! 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    basketball? I’d rather shoot ducks.

  • zzezzezz

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2900 overnight at some point

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Well it’s been this way since I began in 1998. 1998 – 2000 it was to the moon with tech. 2001 – 2004 it was dog shit. 2005-2007 it was build that house baby – no money – no matter. 2008 it was down the poop shoot. 2009 began the biggest,longest lasting and most hated rally in history. 2019 who the fuck knows? 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I’m thinking the same thing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2897.
    that’s a rough 50% HWB.
    he he.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO Be careful long BL SPY selling volume today intense . Now Bears are in it to win it !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    he’s a big boy. let him catch the KNIFE.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD
  • zzezzezz

    Thanks!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    I’ve confirmation up to daily, weekly has turned, but not confirmed. Couldn’t find ANYTHING organic about the EOD ramp, overnight might be interesting again……

  • HD
  • HD

    These are cracking me up. Clowns.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just bots pumping it near the EOS.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    With you on that one.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Het gets it 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie. I’m usually pretty careful and one of the things about scalps is that it’s usually a relatively quick in and out thing with a tight stop. I’m running 30 Minute Charts on /MES and if a long doesn’t work, I’ll just flip back to a short. Funny thing is that at this moment price is very close to where I booked profit earlier today.

  • Darkthirty

    Reminds of el monte slim…. but no easy rider rifle rack!

  • Darkthirty

    Can you hack into them?

  • Darkthirty

    Got 382 of the last dump… good for 4

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Red Pig Down,
    Bulls make money, Bears make money – Pigs get slaughtered.

    https://www.omahasteaks.com/gifs/990×594/pk167.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    I do because so far this is nothing in the scheme of things…..They are gamblers with no edge….They get it right once in a while and preach like they know something…..but we all saw the same thing…..so do you think any short seller made money yesterday after a tweet….nope…..

  • ridingwaves

    farmers are well farmers, they made buckets of money in the last 6 years, if they didn’t learn how to save for a rainy day, its their own fault…..diversity works in farming too…greed runs thru farm country too..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES @ 2888.25

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No I do not GG ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Again SLV Chart PMO perhaps a bottom and about to cross up above signal line and breakout of bullish falling wedge pattern. Checkout the nice OBV and positive divergence ACCUM / DIST. Also 60 min chart 8 – 21 and 55 ema’s bullish alignment indicating possible markup phase. Do not turn a blind eye to the PM’s (GLD and SLV) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0291d647aee2ba7cc967f9b4d7a4ecfdf7484312cf961ca43e16f16b9b979fef.png and miners GDX as they are setting up Shown SLV Daily Chart JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The EMA hugs so much nicer than the SMA envelope.

    I know MOle says price is king. But I’m very tempted to throw out the September highs inverted ‘J’ move, and instead use August. Just look at this massive V-move as an educational experience. Whether this is just another sawblade uphill is to be seen.

    83 trading days, down and up. It’s been a blast.
    I look forward to Captains systems tutorials.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a60ef734fcfdcb41855194cd7dade196cd01510cf4b807de717a317146634f02.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Blondes!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG Red Pig Down ! ! The chief does not recall Red Pig Down It was about a year ago he mentioned possible scenarios and you and i have used it since ! Love it GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I provided the link yesterday. It was 6 MONTHS.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    six months .. sounds right
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah six months of MT winter *is* a year. LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Red Pig Down … Fish Head Pattern … Only here ! Great bunch of guys ! Glad BL is back and of course GG from his Sabbatical .
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    2894.50 = 382 retrace

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A lot of people put MT and WY down … Not true GG at all. MT and WY rate very high in SAT scores … Very intelligent people here GG and those that move here from other parts of U.S. do not leave. Yes the winters are brutal BUT so many things to do in all seasons. Winter sports and activities are awesome as well as summer
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Looks like a pic from a Miss America pageant

  • zzezzezz

    I know… I know….
    Just a little scalpy…

  • Ronebadger

    Has anyone mentioned the failed VIX Buy Signal a couple days ago? We’ve had a number of failed VIX Sell Signals in the past, but the Buy Signals usually worked well. Does anyone have any stats on FAILED VIX BUY SIGNALS? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/292222a9d0103ee5e6c2eb7f0a07b92a02df0f36bca9dcfad98d75cbeb7adea3.png

  • Darkthirty

    futures or options?

  • zzezzezz

    Futures. /ES

  • Darkthirty

    Just for fun, put an ask on ATM put options 1 point above existing ask during a flatline or up move. The bots will come after it……..put one on at 6:47 pulled it at 6:53

  • zzezzezz

    Covered at 2886.5

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB I use the VIX with bollinger bands but a different format I invert the $VIX so it correlates with SPX and insert the 10 ema and observe percent above and below the https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73f004dd6e94fd005eec37f5731ce7c8e6af367714ba7f33b22a70d8412f9e15.png 10 ema

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB VIX inverted failed at the 20 sma must get above or below the 20 sma see chart below
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Long /ES @ 2886

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop up

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • zzezzezz

    Sold @ 2892.25

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no luck. (searching)
    Mole says they fail in bear markets. Are we in a bear market?

    https://evilspeculator.com/vix-buy-signal-received/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    join the club.
    Pat Buchanan visited Arizona once. Treated us like a bunch of dumb cowboys.

  • sutluc

    Measurements look off…

  • sutluc

    I’d figure everybody would be talking about that little gap, where is it now… 2840 ish I think…

  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES @ 2893.50

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Z SPX cash 60 min oversold and last print was a hammer candle today. Looking tomorrow for a bounce perhaps up to approx 2900 . No 60 min RSI or MACD positive divergence so 2900 seems appropiate
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gaps aren’t too popular nowadays.
    😉

    but I’m liking it.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c8feb5882151c8cd505a9cf2405106034494b8ce6d5361d8075c95bf143b74a.png

    take the gap, apply a pivot – and PUSH.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The Cumberland Gap is popular ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT last print was a hammer candle
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Covered @ 2895 and went long

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The Coconino National Forest is home to the largest stand of Ponderosa Pine trees in the world. It is one of six National Forests in Arizona and covers 1.8 million acres of varied landscape and elevation.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Beautiful GG Southern Rockies ar beautiful We have always liked tthe Southern Rockies too The Spanish Peaks Wilderness Area is an approx 20 min drive from home JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f729075d35998de20783154f8ea6fbfc5abc11250bd3c2743c41d441d22b663.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG AZ can get some huge forest fires like MT
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    very nice. that must be an August picture.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes it is a summer photo.Beautiful in winter too
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, massive losses in State history. I’m being positive we are on the mend.

    https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/arizona-drought-hit-with-six-year-dry-spell-worst-in-700-years-9930544

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oregon can get some massive fires too ! The Tillamook Burn and Biscuit Fire. Biscuit Fire was about a million acres. The Yellowstone Fire in 1988 was approx a million acres too
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Can you put a fib arc on it ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I knew it. put up a pretty pick and now you want the world.
    LOL.

    {checking}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You are right GG Too Much IMO a dead cat bounce tomorrow. A lot of damage has been done today esp breaking down thru the 21 ema on intense selling volume.This rally from December IMO wrapping up and time for a correction A much needed correction
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m having flashbacks to 2010/2011 or something close.
    downhills are not easy. Period.

    I posted fibfans back in the day, and was Scoffed. who’s scoffing now!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Fib fans and fib arcs are very accurate and useful. So are fib exp moving averages Breaks down thru the 55 ema then the 89 ema closely matches a support so on and so forth. I have proven it time again on charts.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Well, I mostly agree. But I’ve put up fib charts, and they didn’t work.
    so for the newbs listening. some charts work, some charts don’t.
    the question is – “does it work most of the time? does it have an edge?”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG SPX 1 year daily chart the importance of 21 – 55 and 89 ema’s Works all time frames JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b797ccc008fd5746696615cde9f05a7b4f3fbd4a61f8d711eeac229b572b715.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the 21 didn’t do so HOT.
    but you know what?….look at the RSI 50.
    works much better.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG RSI combined with fib moving averages awesome Right now SPX coming down to 55 ema and RSI probably be about 40 Daily chart uptrend RSI 40 – 80 Downtrend RSI 20 – 60. BUT weekly Chart RSI @ 66.66 from below 33.33 indicates a change from bear to bull Just the reverse from bull to bear
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    OTOH, that 89 is SOLID.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you pack a lot of info in a paragraph. you know that?
    I have to read it 3 times.
    balls in bulls court. all 3 of your averages should be watched.

  • sutluc

    I’ve never made much sense of those things. I messed with them a bit years ago, thought I was seeing something useful, then realized my mind was seeing patterns where they didn’t exist.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Appreciate the input. Maybe they are slightly better than dowsing rods.
    time will tell.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d51582dc6569b519cc1e4afb897c6f2a54b70aa9986c5f266e86ad146254b49c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I have stated initial target SPX 2850 – 2860 close to the 55 ema matching a support also and will be short term oversold. If this occurs very possible a bounce to a lower high . As you have noticed I have not made a trade SPX yet Will probably go long if a bounce at 2850 – 2860 does occur as planned BUT will be watching closely the bounce’s momentum and volume and to see if the bounce is a corrective 3 waves. Then the short GG
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop up

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Yipes I have misread my chart SPX Todays low 2862 just 2 points above 2850 -2860 target The last hour today printed a hammer at 2862. We could have the bounce now Not very often I misread a chart !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, just remember to watch HYG & USD
    jello may starting sliding all over the place.
    a real tossed salad.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    2895 is 382 retrace of previous, should leave one more down move before a 382 retrace of the move down from 2935 to the completion of the current set………..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I posted a new comment above concerning my misreading SPX
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    whoa! look at Dark30 lurking.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no you just mistype. slow down dang it. type slower and accurately.
    no whiteout on the Internet.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Welcome to the late night EvilSpec talk show
    next caller please.

    http://www.gstatic.com/tv/thumb/persons/86705/86705_v9_ba.jpg

  • Darkthirty

    always lurking… if you thought you saw something in the dark, it was me

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi D30 Excellent point. I too am actually looking for one more down move but we will know tomorrow
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, overnight.
    but don’t forget – HWB!

    edit: maybe HWB by open tomorrow, and rollover again. so many possibilities.

  • Darkthirty

    I guessing iv of 3 right now. Problem with that count is that it reads the same as a completed A-B-C correction….FWIW

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 There is a 1-2 i – ii and down for iii also
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 89ema on the one minute for scalping too Above 89 ema long below 89 ema short All stocks and indices
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    we’ve found the Holy Grail!
    ;-D

  • Darkthirty

    I have 2949 as the start of I of 3 2935 as start of iii of 3. 382 is a common 4 retrace IF 2 is 618 or 782. see if v of 3 doesn’t extend so 4 can retrace 382 without the W1 overlap…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    F%$#& A ! GG I knew it all along and trying to convince ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    My bad. I don’t speak blonde that well!
    mostly redhead.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Alright, time to sign off.
    L8ter.

  • Darkthirty

    you oughta see her computer screen!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Me Too Everyone have a great evening and see everyone tomorrow
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Long soybeans /ZS @ 833.50

  • Dyellowflash

    Hard to interpret the zero’s action yesterday. I will have to use the ES 2890-97 as the war zone. If bullish in this area (if it gets up there), I might clear my short options and go long Short term and see how it goes.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Really? It was super clear! I’ll cover it in today’s post.

  • Dyellowflash

    Really? The hrly went on a good bounce, the 5m said its shit up there and the 1m gave a positive divergence followed by a big negative divergence