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trend days and $tick
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trend days and $tick

by ScottOctober 21, 2011

Mole is tinkering with his trend day indicator. Here is how I do mine.

Firstly I want the cleanest data I can possibly get. For this a 1 minute or 5 minute chart is too much smoothing. I use a single tick chart. I draw a line at the zero mark, and vertical lines where the start and end of the first 45 minutes of trade are.

45 minutes = 2700 seconds. So I count the seconds under zero, if its > 270, trend day is *off* the table.

I pull out a pencil and paper and start counting. Like this (I have to split the chart into two halves to make it big enough to actually count the seconds)

So here we have 50 seconds below zero.

The second half of the chart looks like this..

So we have a total of 224 seconds (out of a maximum 270). Therefore we DO HAVE A TREND DAY SIGNAL.

Mole, see why I do not like approximations here? Its an exact science that is required, a little smoothing and tinkering and we see false signals.

OK Did this trend day signal work? Its certainly an upday, but this is NOT what I would consider a bona fide trend day. Therefore this is a false signal in some respects.

A cautious trader would use this signal as a sign to take SHORT TRADES OFF THE TABLE. Looking at the 5 min chart trading the short side today would have been a disaster, and the indicator would have been good for that.

In the bigger picture where are we?

Today we opened out strong. Stopped out the shorts (myself included) with a big gap up with NO ATTEMPT TO FILL. Looking like a potential trend day. But then an interesting thing happened. No additional bulls rushed in to keep the momentum going.

What does this tell us about how the market is reacting to this level? With everything possible in the bulls favor (shorts rushing to cover, bullish $tick readings, gap up) there are no sideline bulls waiting to buy.

A few days ago I gave 3 potential scenarios, stating that if we kept going towards 1260 without a pullback that would be an unhealthy sort of rally.

It looks like Mole is exactly right, its sucking towards that volume hole. I would not be long at this level, even though it may have a little more upside. Its just not behaving right.

OTOH, its too early to get short again, the market needs to digest the squeeze of today before the shorts can mount another attack.

No edge right now.

Scott


About The Author
Scott

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Post-A-thon.

    *Casino close in 3 minutes*

  • Anonymous

    Apologies for posting over Volar ūüôā FWIW Mole’s volume hole analysis, Volar’s POMO chart, my old school tape reading (is the tape behaving right?)

    This all looks like a rally on the end of its legs. Be alert for a retested high and short sometime mid next week.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually, you posted over ME!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    @convictscott: I just ran a test over here and it seems even my premiere data provider (DTN) is apparently averaging ticks on the TICK. In other words – I counted TICK’s tick bars for each session at a single tick setting – and each and every day I get 23398 bars. Every day. So that means that the data coming from the exchange does somehow get mangled/averaged in between as you would expect that bar count to be different every day.

    Given this I wonder if it’s worthwhile using a tick chart vs. a 1-min chart. Any thoughts on this?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “I pull out a pencil and paper and start counting.¬†”

    NOT an option for me – LOL ūüôā

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Prison.
    (he had a LOT of time on his hands).

    Please no palm jokes. ¬†I”ll be here till Saturday. ¬†try the lobster!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “No edge right now.”

    Could not agree more – you basically expressed my own impression most of today. We should have pushed toward 1260 today – and perhaps it’ll pop up to that level over the weekend (screwing EVERYONE). But we cannot trade paranoia/guesses and as such I am not committed either way.

  • Anonymous

    Lol – 6 + 19 + 18 + 174…. to me its easier than writing a program. Especially when you can just look at the chart and eyeball whether its close enough to warrant the effort in counting.

  • Anonymous

    OK a thousand pardons, your excellency!

  • Anonymous

    Indeed, im gone for 2 hours driving, and we have moved on 3-4 posts! Excellent trading resource. I am long from yesterday (DOWchem)

    p.s. anyone, anywhere we can get pure tick data on a freeola sites – most sites have it only on a time axis, ewith time intervals

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear
  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    no points for guessing that markets will/should reverse next week…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Didn’t hear back from my data provider yet but I suspect I may have found the
    answer: I was working with historical data and I remember that Kinetick
    only keeps that at a max 1-sec interval. So when you pull historical tick
    data you actually get 1-sec bars. Live it’s of course different which also
    accounts for the Geronimo/ZeroFX deltas we keep seeing.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “to me its easier than writing a program”

    I guess I’m wired differently…. LOL

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    tick tock, tick tock.

    I think AUD wants to go a wee bit higher.

    http://i55.tinypic.com/2dbwmd4.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually – here is the answer from Kinetick:

    The TICK index would have the same number of ticks each day because the TICK index is calculated from our servers each second. A snapshot of the market is taken and then the value that is plotted for each of those seconds is the difference between the advancing and declining issues.Since this calculation is based on the snapshot taken each second the only time there will be updates at each second. The result is a consistent number of ticks since the calculations are repeated each day.This is expected based on how we choose to calculate these values.

    Well, there you have it – using anything below a 1-sec interval is unnecessary. And Kinetick/DTN is one of the best in the business.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whoa.  
    I spoke and 5minute popped.
    78.96 AUD/JPY
    someone IS watching ES.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    question – why do we see AUD/YEN as oppsed to USD/YEN . Because it is less manipulated?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    why? where does this blue line come from?

  • Anonymous

    they are not the same. Aussie is a commodity based currency and hence when risk is on aud/yen is usually on fire. USD has become a funding currency just like the yen. USD/yen pair does not move much as compared to say the aussie or the kiwi. Basically both are risk off currencies and when risk is off the yen is usually slightly stronger.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    okay. thanks alot..

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/8cb823ab-c9ff-48b2-ae35-2b52ab06b5f0/2011-10-21_1829.png
    The start of the waterfall early part of august, outside of bb on day charts with 1 standard deviation, looks intense but looking at week chart it really is not.  I said on here, I dont think you were here yet it was beginning of Oct, it would be were I would like to start getting bearish on my fx pair equals. BUT please take my advise with a grain of salt. Three headed dog would guide you better. haha.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yup – look up the term ‘carry trade’ for more details

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Apologies are futile – send money.

  • Anonymous

    good day today.. owed to the masters here who taught me all about $TICKS and trend days. was lucky enough to pick the bottom today. went long /ES for 3 main reasons: 1) possible up-trend day; 2) positive divergence on copper 1min chart; 3) diminishing selling as seen by the volume (1min chart) and on the $TICK (2min chart).  +11 points on ES is not bad for my book, but it may be just luck. rats, your critical feedback is welcomed!

    http://screencast.com/t/IQit0YNa

    http://screencast.com/t/MhUEeXco

  • Anonymous

    images did not show up, so here:

  • Anonymous

    interesting… 250,000 GBP prize to whoever comes up with a plan to manage the orderly exit of one or more EU member states.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/10/wolfson-prize

  • Anonymous

    Nice stuff. 

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I agree – thanks supervillin.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    yeah…really good…trying to set up my TOS charts exactly like this…hmmm…TOS not easy imo…and i don’t exactly khow what some of the lines are, or how to set up $UVOL, $DVOL,¬† or $UVOL-$DVOL all on one chart…

  • Anonymous

    thank you! i only trade short. its a diseaese i know but i i have never taken a long trade, so its good to see worst case scenarios for me

  • Anonymous

    what chart software do you use?

  • Anonymous

    No problem, I trade a mix of short and long term positions.  Trading fx ,my long and short term trades vary from a few weeks,few days, to as short as couple hours. It just really depends as you know.

  • Anonymous

    So with a “relatively small” account you can go long a larger amount of interest paying currency like the Aussie. So if you can borrow USD @0.25% and go long Aud @4.75% you make money. Also if risk is on you also get price appreciation. Between the usd and Jpy no big difference in interest rates both are close to zero so its not a carry trade candidate. Of course leverage cuts both ways so if you have a crash and you have no stops your acount goes boom!

  • Anonymous

    Politicians love power and torturing the public. So unless the public takes over (its geeting to a point where that could happen) no country will leave the euro.

  • Anonymous

    At these levels you will be ok but dont be short when qe3 comes out. If you insist on fighting the fed just buy gold. Gold will more than double from these levels maybe by 2013.

  • Anonymous

    i know thats why i said a while back Im short usd/zar long term, its my poor mans way of leveraging xau/usd as it is too expensive for me at  1:1 leverage. As long as the theme is easing gold will stay above 1500. I firgured gold would need to hit that range before Fed introduced more easing.  

  • Anonymous

    It’s been a while since I have looked at $tick and $trin because I have found the charts so noisy as to make use of them difficult. ¬†The discussion this week has been helpful and has motivated me to go back and look at them again to see how I might better wade through them. ¬†Using stockcharts.com, I have found a simple $trin and $tick chart with Heikin-Ashi candles and bollinger bands overlaid (and $SPX in the background so turning points are visible) gives a useful “at a glance” sense of the market in any time frame. ¬†Not sure I would advocate using this as the primary entry or exit signal, but certainly gives very useful warnings or confirmation. ¬†

    My basic concept, for those who care to look: ¬†look for a candle entirely in the upper or lower band as confirmation of a trend change. ¬†For a more sensitive (and potentially “whippy”) view, look at the upper and lower shadow and look for higher lows and higher highs (or vice versa ¬†-even red candles often show higher highs and higher lows just before a trend flips). ¬†A work in process for me, but an interesting addition to the tool chest and Heikin-Ashi candles seem to filter out some of the noise. ¬†Candles with little to no shadow in one direction are, of course very bullish or bearish all by themselves. ¬†I am not quite to the stage of proficiency of counting seconds as does Scott!Interesting observation – which I think meshes nicely with some of the comments of CS, Mole and Volar this week: ¬†the $tick is red this week even though SPX was up for the week. ¬†To me, that suggests another reason why the Gobi desert may prove a tough leap in the short run (even if the general daily trend is upwards per my simple technique described above). ¬†The breadth of buying necessary to pole vault over that desert seems to be a bit tepid so far. ¬†

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    u cud do studies -> compare with -> add other indicator..

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Why not someone do a video with talking to explain tick and tring , indicators , trade entry, exit? 

    that would be grand!

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    k..thanks.

  • Anonymous

    I’ll try my hand at annotating some stockcharts charts so you can see what I’m talking about. ¬†The great thing about them is that you can use them in any time frame you want – 5 mins, hourly, daily, weekly etc. and the same concepts apply. ¬†Just be wary that $TRIN is a bit counter-intuitive since down is up and vice versa (i.e. extreme lows are overbought; extreme highs are oversold). ¬†Haven’t much of a clue how to create an annotated video, still less upload it!

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/
    this free software is easy for making & uploading pictures and videos..

  • Anonymous

    This link should show an annotated $TICK chart:  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TICK&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=10&id=p30717145645&a=246770404

    The chart is daily, but you could apply the same rules to any time frame.  

    For confirmed sell signal, should be fully in lower BB channel.  Stronger signal if progression of lower lows (on shadow below box) and lower highs.  Tentative sell signals given when lower high, lower low and more than half in lower channel.  NB Рblack candle should NOT be a signal candle Рrequires confirmation.

    For confirmed buy signal, fully in upper BB channel.  Hollow red candle should NOT be a signal candle, requires confirmation.  Tentative buy signal given when consecutive candles are higher lows, higher highs and more than half in upper channel.  

    You can compare to the SPX chart in the upper box and see that it responds pretty will to direction changes. ¬†I haven’t tried to generate a hard set of timing signals with this – in my mind at least it is a factor to take into account and not a self-contained trading system. ¬†Someone more enterprising than I might be able to write a script and generate a series of dates for back testing. ¬†I am happy that I at least have an easy visual to be able to use TICK data (similar approach for $TRIN which gives you advance decline volume). ¬†Heikin-Ashi smooths the chart so it is not such a forest of tough-to-interpret data. ¬†

  • Anonymous

    Good but they havent really said QE3 yet. So you may be early. A short squeeze could hurt you. Better to short USD when they announce QE3 dont you think. If you cant buy gold then keep buying silver physical when it gets below 30 down to 26ish. When QE3 finally comes out it will explode.

  • Anonymous

    that’s think or swim, now owned by TD Ameritrade. I think you can still get a free TOS demo with real-time charts and without being Ameritrade client.
    https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayPage.tos?webpage=paperMoney 

  • Anonymous

    thanks for comments, rats! i only gave it 50% chance of working, but the risk was low (super tight stop of 1 pt.) so it was not a tough decision. i could have been easily stopped out, but when it works you get a nice R (+11 R in this case)  

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    whats R?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Questions:

    – Why are you using the BB channel approach? Has that proven to give you any edge?
    – Have you ever back tested this over more than 100 sessions? What were the results? Expectancy, SQN, SharpeRatio?

    The reason I’m being cynical here is that I see a lot of retail traders produce all kinds of charts that in the end prove to have zero edge. They look at three weeks of data and are convinced that they found a working system. In reality an consistent edge is often found in very surprising configurations that one would have not discovered without the use of back testing (followed by forward testing).

    I’m not trying to discourage you guys from posting your charts – on the contrary. But if Scott, Volar, and Mole start debating trend days then I want to see some hard data. Some daily chart with a Bollinger – with all due respect – is providing zero benefit. If you want to use a different approach than the established (and documented) one then it is your job to back it up with some statistics, otherwise it is completely worthless.

    Please don’t take these comments as being harsh – I am merely trying to point you guys in the right direction after having made all the mistakes myself.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    OR you could just find the search box on this blog and find TONS of articles and perspectives on all those. Over 2000 posts and counting… ūüėČ

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    TRIN is inherently broken – please use the search box on this blog to find some pertinent perspectives.

  • Anonymous

    exactly what nogreedorfear said. 
    also check a little better chart of it:

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I suspect he refers to unit size or ‘risk’. Your unit size is the product of your principal (i.e. your account size), your position % (e.g. 1%), and N – market dollar volatility (e.g. ATR14).

    Unit size = 1% of account / N * dollars per point

    Example: Crude
    Ticker Symbol: CL
    Exchange: NYMEX 
    Contract Size: 1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons).
    Contract Months: all months(Jan. – Dec.)
    Price Quote: price per barrel. Ex $65.50 per barrel
    Tick Size: $0.01 (1¬Ę) per barrel ($10.00 per contract).¬†

    Account size: $1,000,000
    Dollars per point: $1000 (100 hundred ticks at $10) Рyou can click on that.

    Unit size = 0.01 x $1000,0000 / ~3.25 * 1000 = 3 contracts

    So that is the risk you are limiting yourself to – 1% of your capital. Now, if you want to be more risky use 2% (i.e. 6 contracts) but I would not recommend going beyond that.

  • Anonymous

    I just cut a chicken head off and let it run around till is falls on a buy or sell signal, been working for me…I’m kidding, Mole you bring up a excellent point about BBs, it is why I read them differently in short time frames.¬†

  • Anonymous

    Mole Рall good comments and I fully appreciate your constructive intent.  My original goal was simply to say `thanks for re-introducing me to $TICK`.  Probably should have stuck to that.  

    I don`t have the capacity to back test these comments as a complete `system`nor am I suggesting that anyone use it that way.  When I am about to pull the trigger on a trade, I like to check my thesis against a number of other charts to see if they are in synch with what I am proposing to do.  I wouldn`t go any farther than to say that this type of chart may provide a useful way for me at least to look at tick data and incorporate it into my thinking when undergoing that final reality check before pulling the trigger.  Fully concur that a lot more back testing and forward testing is necessary before putting anything into the front line as actionable or creating an edge.  For me, something like this would be something I`d look at to see if I should pass on a trade I have already decided on or, conversely, whether it supports my thesis in entering (or exiting).  

    By all means if anyone wants to weigh in with a more systematic way of using $tick as a front line tool, I would be quite keenly interested in listening/reading any suggestions.  As I said, I have always found the charts so noisy that I have had a great deal of trouble interpreting them.

  • Anonymous

    R = risk taken per trade. in my case R = 1 ES point for this trade, resulting in R multiple of 11 on 11 ES pt profit. This implies that i could be wrong 90% of the time on my trades and still come out on top overall. But most likely, +11 R is not one’s average trade ūüôā¬†
    if you keep a trade journal (you should) you can plot your R distribution, also your R averages for loosing trades and in the money trades.

    Check out Van Tharp on that:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFuF6M7z1jg
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjFRVPWpEuY

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    cool..will try search..

  • Anonymous

    well said, Mole. position sizing is very important. 2% of your account is a good limit, otherwise your risks of blowing up increase dramatically. Though it can be hard to adhere to this for beginner traders with smaller accounts – major reason why so many fail.

  • Anonymous

    Actually, CS has a nicely described note about how he uses TICK with zerolite.  I just read it and found it quite instructive.  It is under `scalping`.  The reference is:https://evilspeculator.com/?cat=761.  Much more systematic than my note!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think you may have missed the point. I am NOT questioning BBs in particular – I use them myself. Rather I am referring to using discretionary setups without prior analysis of any inherent edge.

  • Anonymous

    100 billion for EU defaulters.  Not enough? seems so.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Especially since some brokers offer ridiculously small daytime margins. Which doesn’t make them bad brokers but increases the chance of traders being lured into disproportional position sizes.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Hey I didn’t know about TICK at all before this. So your post certainly made me curious. It basically tells breadth of the market and bollinger band measure does make sense I think. Of course it’s not the best indicator and also not the best TRIN model. But I already assumed that..

    I really appreciate your sharing your thoughts..

    Mole Рagree with u too that one cannot rely on it fully without backtesting etc. 

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    cool. thx..watching now.

  • Anonymous

    thank you!!

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e5362526-2f52-4859-9f8d-6048c3c912d3/2011-10-22_1716.png
    I know. I wasn’t questioning BBs either or your use of them. I was trying to say I read them differently in short time frames and the normal way in long time frames. And why I think more than 95% of traders lose. A while back Volar and I talk about standard devs. https://evilspeculator.com/?p=24292#comment-326556922. Then he showed me a naughty chart. it was really hott chart. https://evilspeculator.com/?p=23567 he did say I would love it.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    so whats the long term outlook? are we still in bull run or was it over at 1370s this year? 

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Are you a sub? If so I strongly suggest you catch up on my last few weekend updates.

  • Anonymous

    i think most long term outlooks are subjective. the farther out you look, the less reliable the forecast becomes. a good case can always be made for several outcomes with a long term objective. much easier to predict on shorter timeframes from minutes to days. just like the weather.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, we are not talking about platty or lepto stdv here – we are talking TREND DAYS. And what you are referring to is the force of a move up which may go way beyond the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th standard deviation. All fine – but useless for detecting the signs of a trend day, which needs to be detected prior to considering the length of the ensuing profit potential.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    I don’t think I can agree to that. Longer timeframes drive all other time frames. One gotta see long term charts though…

    short term easier to predict? dont think that’s also true..

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    not a sub yet..

  • Anonymous

    Well if the euro bailout is indeed 5% of the 2 trillion purported by the Guardian newspaper, it looks bad for Monday.    

  • Anonymous

    Mole, how could sds and bbs  be useless in trend day strategy. In my opinion you would need to start getting comfortable buying into strength and sell into weakness,outside of bbs, instead of the orthodox way of buying off support and selling into resistance. Example buying the mornings high once it is established or selling the lows of morning. when that cycle of trapped longs or shorts starts because of increased volatility attracting new buyers/sellers the more likely the stops will be hunted down causing a new equilibrium of supply/demand once the one-way trade is finished. Please correct me if im thinking of it the wrong way.

  • Anonymous

    Long term we have been in a bear market since 2000. Which time frame are you looking at and in which currency?

  • Anonymous

    Well worth it let me tell ya!

  • Anonymous

    If your currency is gold then we will talk about the bull after the DOW:gold ratio gets below 2. Gold is the only bull market in town.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    oh – not again! bull market from march 2009 onwards is what I am talking – which is relevant to trading…

  • Anonymous

    haha so usd then, in that case i seriously doubt new highs without qe3 which bernanke has not yet promised.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    ok…hmm…

  • Anonymous

    Debt haircuts and banks nationalization

  • Mitch Martin

    Any gold traders in the house?

    http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/1150/gld10222011.png

    Comments & constructive criticism are always welcome.

    Best,
    MM

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are NOT talking about trend trading, mate – LOL – we are talking about a TICK trend day rule. Do you understand the concept? It’s about identifying easy pickings during an NYSE session.

  • Anonymous

    yea… i guess they’re looking for a new way to drain the pool other than removing the water.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I know this may sound contradictory to you but ‘trend trading’ does not concern itself very much with daily scalping or swing trading. Trend trading as it’s commonly referred to is done at a minimum on daily charts. PLUS trend traders do the opposite of most discretionary traders – they buy high and sell low.¬†

    The concept of a ‘trend day’ is completely opposite of that – you are trying to figure out if a *single session* will most likely end higher without much whipsaw. Technically you could refer to that as ‘trend trading’ but nobody really does.

    So, coming back to what I was saying previously. All that stuff about BBs and standard dev is fine when it comes to assessing the extent of an ongoing trend (i.e. you buy once the trend is established and ride it out ALL THE WAY). Trend days are used to play the swings – e.g. bounces between the upper stdev line and VWAP. The Zero shows great examples of that – please see the pertinent videos I posted.

    Hope that is more clear. I want to be sure we don’t mix concepts and focus on one specific thing in our discussions.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    lines look right – gold’s channel. should move to around 1750 level next – with stocks going down…

    good to see ya MM !

  • Anonymous

    i am not sure i follow…gold to 1750 but gold stocks or general market stocks going down?

  • Anonymous

    my morality, stupidity, stubborness or whatever just doesnt let me ever take a long trade…i might be in for a bit more pain but i certainly hope that there is no true real bull coming….yes gold might be it though…thank you

  • Anonymous

    If DX can hold 76ish and rally gold wont hold. In minor selloffs gold will hold its own but not in major selloffs.  However if you are buying physical these are good levels to buy. And if it breaks down buy some more.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks mole! The discussion was great. 

  • Anonymous

    yes, I understand the concept. I find it precarious trying gauge the expansion/contraction within the first 45-120 minutes of the NYSE open. But that why Im a amateur, and glad I found this play to continue learning. 

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the link Рyou just made my head hurt!  Kurtosis, platykurotic Рall that google looking up was causing smoke to emerge from my terminal.  What I did get out of that was (a) FDOM Sharpe ratios seem to like prime numbers (esp. 5, 7 and 11) and that reversion to the mean is a dangerous game to play when you have a data distribution with huge variations in it.  Steering clear of the statistics terminology, I land on the old adage:  `the market can stay wrong longer than you can stay solvent`.  A good read. Thanks.  

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    which one has more data points near the mean(vertical centre line)? Looking at the graph – it seems like Lepto. So Lepto should favour mean reversion I would think – not the other way around.

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=23567

  • Anonymous

    Yes, you are right it is a dangerous game. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Look at the P&F chart.
    bear flag formation. ¬†I’m looking for 144 to 142 support.
    now, those not¬†familiar¬†with P&F, that price will most certainly will be hit. ¬†just don’t ask “when”!
    ūüėČ

    the support line on your chart, is (most likely) the 150MA

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93071462296

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Thanks. This was helpful. 

  • jigdaddy
  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    too short term, as good as anybody’s guess

  • Anonymous

    I would assume most regulars here make several trades per day.

  • http://twitter.com/nogreedorfear nogreedorfear

    Ok, what r your short term indicators showing? short ? better to be short over the weekend? or is it long? 

  • Anonymous

    I wouldn’t want to be either over the weekend.