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Trippy Tuesday Morning Briefing
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Trippy Tuesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleFebruary 18, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I hope you all had a relaxing weekend because it’s time to roll up your sleeves and get to work. This week is going to be awesome and intend to stick to a strict take no prisoners policy. Let me set the table for you guys. For one we are currently trading above the 10th consecutive close higher on the spoos. We’re also starting to run out of volume on the profile panel (see above). All in all a very rare configuration but it gets better…

Due to the three day weekend we are also seeing a very pronounced BB compression on the hourly right now – and that’s across all the index futures. I expect a big move to follow here shortly – meaning today or tomorrow at the latest. Now the bears look at this and think that it couldn’t possibly push any further, right? The bulls think – wow, I’m missing out – this is the rally of the year! Besides – an eleven session higher? It’s so crazy it just could work!

So that’s the setup and you would be well served to get positioned here, right now. But how you ask? As always evil Mole is on the case – while you guys have spent the long weekend catching up on Jim Sinclair posts he has spent it plotting his devious schemes. Please step into my lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • DollarChaser

    that happened quick. only just got my orders placed in time. short YM & TF. standing by to flip…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Someone showed up for work!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    S&P 100 – T time.

  • evilasevildoes

    New tf Vix RSX?

  • DollarChaser

    i do my best. just got knocked out of TF short, now long.

  • SilverEagle

    Mole – where are stops set on these for whipsaw purposes? Trying to figure out both for position sizing exercise and also in general to gauge how wide people on this board typically set their stops where there’s nothing dictated (e.g., IP candle trade has fairly straightforward rules). You looking at other NLBL/SL for levels? Something else? % move?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I would use the bollingers as breach points, so set your stop a tick or two above/below.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I know it’s a pain – perhaps start with 1/2R and work yourself up as it goes your way. I should have mentioned that.

  • DollarChaser

    yeah ok good point.will do in the future, thanks. was only a 1/2 R loss anyway, put 1/2R on each TF & YM. TF long is paying off now, just dropped to 75% pos size. its all in the game … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cryMVK1PwuQ&feature=youtu.be&t=16s

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I know these setups are rough. You may also start looking for candle patterns that give you entries. Advance stop to b/e on 1R point – you know the drill.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Whipsaws are always reduced by focusing on the multi-dimensional aspect of the world … a simplified version of that is take the message from the higher timeframe using the Language of the Market approach.

  • SilverEagle

    Whipsaws up and back are not my game. Not going to blow my bank hoping to catch the right one. Next thousand trades. I don’t need to be in this one. Kills me seeing every move go 3 ticks in my favor then promptly reverse.

  • Darkthirty

    Chart?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    The tree will shake till most of us monkeys fall out 🙂

  • Sean

    Truly Evil stop on that GBPUSD.240 alert… still within a couple pips of the trigger if anyone missed it…

  • Bun Dance Kid

    That’s why I’ve adopted a ‘trade both ways’ strategy using spread bets. It’s hairy and leaves me vulnerable at times (an aspect I am working on improving) but I feel more in control of my positions with this kind of volatility knowing I’m not hitting stops all the time and getting jerked around. Instead I can relax and let price do its thing, and build my position either way with the swings. I figure once the market decides which way it’s going, I’ll rebalance my trades in the prevailing direction.

  • Dyellowflash

    Interesting. So you are a spread bet (options?) trader?

  • DollarChaser

    ‘Language of the Market approach’ sounds intriguing. please elaborate…

  • Bun Dance Kid

    I spread bet only at the mo. I’m afraid let options get the better of me many moons ago, so I steer clear – it’s strictly futures, mostly index sometimes FX. With the recent narrowing of spreads, there’s only 1 pip spread on the DJ and .4 on S&P

  • Dyellowflash

    Quite similar to myself – I am using a forex platform to trade index n spread is also 1 pip for DJ and 0.4 on S&P during mkt hours but its 0.4 on DJ during non-mkt hrs..

  • Bun Dance Kid

    preferred boll periods?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Yeh, DJ goes to 4 out of hours for me too.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Hard part for me is tying up the NLSL / NLBL levels in the setups with the corresponding values in the spread betting platform. I still haven’t worked it out, which makes it a bit arbitrary – and I really don’t want to be arbitrary if I can help it!

  • Bun Dance Kid

    How useful are Mole arrows on a day like today?

  • Dyellowflash

    Very strange day on my trading system. I had a buy signal when the price was at Dow 16138 but under my system, the buy signal will be invalidated if price goes below 16138… Dilemma – I cant do a quad-fill if the stop is on the dot… in fact, i cant even put a stop with it. So I just did a one off long fill for only 1 contract to track and see what’s going to happen… well, it went up… sorry for typing after the fact – as I was busy checking stuffs. Just know that u r trading against me for now if it stays above 16138 🙂

  • Dyellowflash

    It is currently having some problem clearing 16159 n it got to clear 16161, 16166 n 78 within 2 attempts. Left one. Signals is very cloudy n everything is cluster today. Sigh…

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Zero looking pretty bullish if I’m reading it right – so those blue arrows can be disregarded for now

  • Bun Dance Kid

    But of course, everything can turn on a dime… so I’m keeping my eyes on that Z line

  • Bun Dance Kid

    The dotted white line is the early indicator, right?
    “The white dotted line in the center indicates the current direction of the buy/sell participation ratio.”
    for ref – mine as much as anyone else’s 😉
    https://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=2969

  • Sean

    VIX de-correlating from SPX, stay on your toes…

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    LOM is simply reading each bar and its message … eg LgR and HH and HL = Promise of HH to come …. SmR and HH and HL = I don’t wanna go up … as two simple examples … there are heaps more … one of which I suggested for Crowd Research last week … others I have written about here over the years.

  • bdoone

    VXO +8.6%…strange

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Curious how ‘mantrified’ my phrase of 1 of the next 1000 has become … in my case the last number always corresponds to the actual number of campaigns that I commit myself to using for a given RBT … for example … with the 50R results over 34 days that I wrote about a day or so ago … it is 1 of next 3750 (and counting down) … at the end of my commitment to follow a RBT it is … 1 of next 0 campaigns … win lose or draw … that is the end of the active life of that RBT.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    /NQ not giving it up yet…

  • Sean

    Since VXO is based on OEX options vs the VIX with SPX options it could make sense that VXO would lead when sophisticated investors get nervous, especially in the context of a low participation ramp as we have been seeing recently… the TRIN is also looking funky today, near levels normally seen on down days.

    Also I found this longer-term chart interesting, it compares the VIX:VXO ratio to SPX…

  • bdoone

    Thanks and TRIN reeks of sneaky distribution

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seems to be trending higher today – the mark is holding nicely. I would only take the long signals right now and be cautious about short signals.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    OK – thanks. And there was me thinking we could be turning around after the lack of follow through

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure why you guys are bitching. Getting positioned on the TF and the YM was pretty easy. The TF has been kicking ass since this morning.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I take it you’re not a sub – see the entry on the TF today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Doesn’t matter as long as it works for you.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Mole (or other Zero subs, I’m not clear how to read PZI – I know the lines can suddenly jump, but what’s your take on this kind of thing:

  • SilverEagle

    I am a sub. As luck would have it, took the NQ signal which got jerked around a lot more than the TF. That also was the point of asking about the stop setting. Even at the BBs, got whipsawed twice.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This is a pretty easy day mate – the signal has not breached the zero mark – so far simply being long has been the name of the game. I think you may be over interpreting it. Relax a little and don’t look for things that do not exist.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    FYI – for non-subs…

  • Bun Dance Kid

    I wondered if it was an early sign we might be about to breach

  • Prop Joe

    Thoughts on UNG vs DGAZ?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    So disregard the PZI and take the lead from the ZL intraday?

    … and watch like a hawk now that we’ve finally dipped below the zero line. Short if we stay there, long if we turn back up.

  • newbfxtrader

    Looks fine ATM. I dont see any divergence worth bailing on longs for.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Maybe now?

  • newbfxtrader

    Cracks are visible now!

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Looks like a fairly convincing breach of the waterline… Let’s see if it bobs back to the surface or d-i-v-e-s from here

  • newbfxtrader

    Small range day. Lots of work for me to get involved. Try some of my setups for a change! How about the kiwi short?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Bun Dance Kid

    I haven’t paid too much attention to fx with the indexes locking knocking on the rooftops, but i’ll keep a lookout in future

  • newbfxtrader

    Come on. Press the red button…..

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Thanks for the Z message Mole – I’m starting to think I’m too quick off the mark. I’m already sitting nicely on my short positions but watching closely in case I need to take action 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    That was Sky’s Job.
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you use the Mole reversal signal? Ballsy on a day like this but it may have paid off for ya. Otherwise watch the zero mark and VWAP – both are in sync right now. If we push back above both then they’ll run it higher and we produce an 11 – otherwise we may see a sell off in the next hour or so.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Where have YOU been? Report to the lair’s human resources.

    http://www.jantoo.com/cartoons/lowres/170/17030279_low.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s starting to droop – so this may be the time to reverse, yes.

  • yades

    dude a lot of words and few facts, pls post a copy of your brokers statement, show us your 50R in 1m, then we can start talking