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Trouble At The Evil Lair
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Trouble At The Evil Lair

by The MoleJanuary 31, 2010

The recent announcement of Apple’s iPad ruffled some feathers at the evil lair:

No wonder AAPL has been tanking lately – Adolf has launched a new Blitzkrieg against Jobs’ HQ in Cupertino. I just came back from the Bay Area and I must tell you – it’s nothing but blood and tears up there. And rain, of course there’s that never ending sulfuric rain. It’s like a scene out of Code of Duty – World At War – only with a Starbucks with free WiFi on every corner.

Tim Knight is MIA – rumor has it that he is hiding in his nuke proof bunker with a five year supply of MREs, several cases of Dom Perignon, and a lifetime subscription to vivid.com. Unfortunately his bulk order of toilet paper didn’t make it through the front lines – probably not a pretty picture down there.

I need to run and upgrade the laser canons on my genetically modified sharks. Not sure I have time to post charts later today as I’m pinned down under sniper fire. Fortunately I speak German – fools them every time 😉

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    If the Q's really do this, “I am invincible.” 007 flick.
    Man, I hope I never get holed up without toilet paper–That was funny, mole!
    Click here to see a QQQQ chart.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    You spelled Yeild wrong.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    My little hamster ass is feeling the heat because friday landed us damn close to a nexus point (others being in the 1050's 1040 and 105)… wanted an update on the rainbow soilents…. some other indicators…. the evil mole's gut feeling….

    What do I get? An i Pad rant and Tim's dirty ass…..

    Mole, mein fhurer, you are truly evil :-p

    P.S. for those that missed my friday's hamster light
    , in a nutshel, bulls must be shiting glass covered bricks, but don't laugh too much, that warmth you feel inside can be some hot vaseline…

    Hamster Time!

    BPSPX, this is as good a bounce point as any, we broke ma208, lower 104, just inches from lower bb13, monday will bounce or fall as a rock

    spx:cpce still downtrending on lower slope

    spx:gold under ma 204 and 208, closed a ma13, bounce or slide?

    vix:gold 23 still some climb to 27 but seems tohave averted a drop

    gold… below ma104… foing to 990?

    slv:gold still on a slide down to…0.143 or boiuncing from some lower bb to 0.15 or .155-.158

    well that's it

    YES WEEKEND

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    Thanks 77

  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    that video is fckn hilarious. the best hilter fansub video so far

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    You know I like the moon, but it is really weird that the eclipse marked this turn down precisely. Also the 5 DMA flipped down right then, and the yellow line for “high levels of stock ready to make some pattern move” also showed us the potential for a turn. AS PREDICTED by your humble dog last week, the 20DMA did flip bearish on Monday, and then stayed there.

    The 5, 10, and 20 DMA are all bearish. That is rare. Betting short on the 20DMA going bearish is “safe” you just have to close the trade– no matter what– when the 20 comes back up bullish.

    Also, with the number of banks failings increasing, and now they aren't just closing them on Friday's, they did a bunch on Tuesday also! This is bearish.

    The consumer is 70% of the economy, and the consumier has been misled and is being crushed. Even if you default on a loan, or EVEN if you do a short sale….they can still come after you and garnish your wages…while you are living in a freakin' tent already!
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/01/guest-p

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hey, stepped out of my long at 1073 made 2.5 points, just for the sake of sleeping comfortably. Not my style to hold overnight. I prefer 8am-4:15 pm. Low volume freaks me out a bit. Plus, my entry was not great so I didn't have a lot of cushion.

  • jd60

    mole, I don't post very often but read every day. loaded up on 3x etfs during the peak and buying itm puts at opportune times for quick cash. expect to buy otm puts if we get a retrace and vix goes lower. otherwise well positioned to make some money. I certainly owe some of that positioning to this website. Keep up the good work.

  • Nightwind

    Reviewing the ES and YM hourly charts show H&S patterns with the right shoulders complete. Similiar to the H&S patterns that kicked off this downdraft. It definitely doesn't look bullish to me for monday.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The news do not matter – MAs only mildly matter (maybe – still split on that one). Be cautious and if you're short term oriented don't overstay your welcome.

  • charles_smith

    Nothing tops “Hitler gets a margin call” but maybe that's because it was the first…? The healthcare one was also great.

    Maybe we head down on Monday but I think we reverse late Monday or Tuesday and run for 2 weeks. A trend for 10 months does not just roll over and die…. we got A to B, now we get B to C (retrace to at least the 20 -day MA and/or the 50% fibo of the down move). Double top is not out of the question.
    I am anxiously awaiting the next move down but went long last week for the bounce. Maybe we drop like a rock at the open but if so we reverse at SPX 1055-60 IMO.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Kind of leaning to “bounce” idea for the next week or so….on US indices.

    Looking at puts on EEM, good liquidity, premiums seem reasonable to me, even for June 2010.

    Emerging markets are up 126% since last March.

    http://screencast.com/t/Y2Y2Y2Nh

  • boldventure

    Mole are you serious? You really think moving averages “mildly matter” and are split in that decision. You don't have to believe my opinion just look at any long term chart. For the last 10 months the S&P as been above the 200DMA and also the 50DMA. If you were long buying dips all you did was make money. Just recently about 6 trading days ago it broke below the 50DMA and now of course with the decline us bears are all giddy. ( think thats a coincidence, or a clear break in trend identified by that MA) You see all you have to do rather stock or index is be long when both the 50DMA and 200DMA are below your position price (with the 50DMA being at or above the 200DMA. Use 50DMA as stop on any decline, get back in long if trends back above. Do just the opposite to go short. Use shorter term avg's to identify current direction. This isn't rocket science, even thou some try to make it so. (usually for their benefit). Look back the last 15 yrs or longer if you want…15yrs will give you SPY if you wanna use that. Use Yahoo or what ever else you want that shows the most basic TA….the moving averages, throw up the chart click 50DMA and 200DMA and you tell me long when above short when below did you beat the S&P (well 95% of fund managers didn't even beat the S&P). So much for the lost decade, since 2000 you would have about tripled your original invesment, going long then short following those trend lines. Only using that most basic TA . I can't remember how many times this past year their were short reccomendations and excuse after excuse about why this or that didn't pan out, and the simple matter of the fact was the trend lines for full bullishness were never violated other than a few weeks out of 10 months. Some people follow advice and if so may have loss some serious coin( it didn't have to be that way). Get real

  • TransworldDepravity

    Yeah, I'm glad you bring that one up. I stashed some of EEV for the long term account when it was in the 10 area. Are you leaning longer time frame puts on EEM. Haven't been able to check yet, but are the spreads better than .15c apart?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    MA's are… incomplete, they either stop or let pass for the BB, but within a context they are interesting

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm more than familiar with trend trading – which is why I'm half split on the matter.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think you just made my point in one elegant simple sentence. Thank you.

  • Gerbil_gold

    I came to check for “rainbow soilents”. ah, no luck.
    back to my bunker.
    -Gerbil out.

  • boldventure

    I will use the subject of the post. AAPL last 2 years, Crossed above 200DMA and 50DMA in may-08 at 150 till July -08 crossed back got you out at 165 (+10%) In SEPT-08 crossed below 50 and 200DMA got you short at 155 till you covered when it crossed 50DMA at 90 (+41%) got you back in long at the cross above 200DMA at 120 and stayed till recently last week when crossed back below 50DMA at 200 (+66%) 100,000 turns into 110,000 then short to 155,100 then long to 257,000 now waiting for AAPL to drop below 200DMA to short again, or Above 50DMA to go long again see either way you made 170% on that simple TA method over the last 2yrs.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/MWEyNjU1

    Long Gold short term trade

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks,

    The piece of my short position I trimmed on Friday, when my personal euphoria levels were getting off the charts (and therefore a sign to reduce risk), I have just added back here. Nice little scalp, but I don't see significant strength here so am going to take the little profit and get back to my main strategy.

    One critical sentiment observation. For the first time on friday night I saw some MSM discussing this decline. They were all extremely calm, but the takeaway from almost everyone was that this selloff isn't done.

    Now I don't think any of them are really in the camp that this could be anything more than a 10% pullback, but just to say they have accepted lower prices as a given.

  • bobthehorse

    ISM later today, could be very strong. Not that strong data has helped recently but payrolls on Friday as well I think could surprise to the upside.

    I am looking for a move up towards 1120 this week where I will get short. Currently 50% long.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    always at your service, RBW often accuses me of talking in a zen Koan way, I don't explain well, but if people ponder about it for a while, in the right state of mind, they don't think, they know….

    BTW http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-ED20_4B66A333.html

    the line from nov.2008 low has been haunting me for a while, and some fan like lines (I'll post it if anyone asks) seem to point to 1k if this zone doesn't provide a bounce (seems to have failed, unless it's monday gap and ramp galore)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    check my answer to mole, no soylent crackers but some meat

  • CorporalCarrot

    I'm only adding back what I removed on Friday evening. If I didn't have an overall position, I would not be initiating a new short here.

  • aussiebinlaughin

    That has very little (zero IMO) to do with price moves that may or may not happen today has it? Surely last week proved that trading the news is a flawed strategy that simply doesnt work? Sentiment drives the market price, not the news. Like any stat, graph, or news, it can be interpreted any way you like, good or bad. So your assessment that you expect a surprise to the upside means just that – in your opinion, the news for today had a good upside surprise. The next person will look at the figure (whatever it is) and may make a judgement that its good for all the wrong reasons, or not good enough. Same news, completely different judgement as to what those stats actually mean. Thats why news, for me, is essentially useless for trading

  • flipper

    Hi everyone, I watch all of you but rarely comment, but found out this morning Prophet charting will be gone by mid Feb. does anyone have a suggestion of who to use for charting service? Thanks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Prophet charting will be gone from where?

  • flipper

    mole they called me and said that TDAmeritrade bought them out and its on the home page of prophet that its closeing mid Feb.

  • flipper

    They will no longer have Futures or option charting and there is none this morning…I can't trade anything that I have I am trying to keep up with some of the traders over at hot options but I am screwed

  • gcocks83

    thanks for the chart. Looks like a good play with some defined in and out points. Very important to have in this market.

  • Nightwind

    Possible bear flag forming on /ES. Euro showing a little strength,…could be an interesting day

  • Gerbil_gold

    All my charts..lost…like teardrops….in the rain.

  • flipper

    I just went to Slope of hope, even tim's not using Prophet…I wonder if he got shit-canned? well if anyone has a good charting service please let me know..thanks Mole…have a good day trading..I had to sell everything

  • flipper

    Gerbil, they will still have Investools but they will not have mini's at all the guy told me..I am thinking of E-signal..but they are expensive…

  • Schwerepunkt

    As a stop-gap, at least, you could try QuoteTracker software. It is totally free and you can do a lot of things with it. It is my main charting system and I like it and it's very simple to use. It integrates with your brokerage account and allows you to trade through it. You need to check whether they have a relationship with your broker for a data feed.

  • gmak

    I'm slow getting going this AM. tough weekend.

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=14425#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST

  • flipper

    Thanks I appreciate that..I will check..thanks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    another roy bates fan?

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Except structurally changing news….like a change in the money supply.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bladerunner.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bladerunner.