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Tuesday Morning Briefing
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Tuesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleFebruary 4, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I have to see my chiro early this afternoon (your morning) so I won’t have time for a full fledged daily briefing. So let me give you the skinny in preparation of today’s session. Obviously we’ve seen a big move yesterday and it’s not unreasonable to expect an attempt to recover some lost ground. Short term all the index futures look identical this morning so I’m only showing the spoos. As you can see the 25-hour is falling quickly now and overnight the E-Mini has been pushing sideways. I expect it to catch up with the SMA shortly – probably somewhere around 1743.75 give/take a few ticks.

You recall that I took short term profits (not my daily positions) in expectation of a counter response. That however does not mean it necessarily must happen today – the 25-hour will be the first hurdle that has to be overcome. If you see the spoos or any of the others hop over successfully then you know the bulls are ready to launch a counter strike.

Whether we see a bounce today or not, medium term nothing really changes as I will hold my current short positions all the way to ES 1760 where they triggered. That’s actually not too far away but I made my 1R and thus the stop had to be moved near the entry, per the rules. It is possible that 1760 will be breached and we then fall back below and it will take a bit of finesse to deal with that should it happen.

There is no technical context on the daily/weekly/monthly that offers any further clues right now, so don’t let your emotions/imagination fill in the gaps. All we know is that the fear factor on the CPCE was back below a threshold that suggests a short term bounce. We can prepare for that but if we want to hold positions through a big correction then a hands-0ff approach is usually the best policy.

Have fun but keep it frosty. I see you guys later this afternoon should I survive the crushing plate size hands of my chiropractor.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Where was JJ yesterday?
    perhaps he was delayed at the corner store.
    [Bearish Ad]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYWqsFpN8J4

  • Skynard

    /NG triggered short 5.10

  • Skynard

    Back to full short on Mole mark. Shorting the rips, tide has changed:)

  • Ronebadger

    H&S now??? at 5.20/21 approx

  • Skynard

    Yep, real close, short again on re-test.

  • Skynard

    Look at /SB go:)

  • amokta

    The bear is strong, like Yogi bear 🙂

  • Dyellowflash

    Cleared off my VIX shorts at slight profit (how the hell did I survive that rip?), now slightly short mkt@15435 Dow and NG@5.23.. I aint good with the Oil stuffs, but shorting 1 contract for leisure.

  • Skynard

    Wheat, most excellent:)

  • momac

    yeah!! it’s finally made it over it’s nlbl. Hopefully it can stay above it.

  • Skynard

    Test of lows in process:)

  • Skynard

    Target 100 daily:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m back – how’s everyone?

  • bdoone

    As per Convict Scott: expect range bound day after long candle day. Looks like it so far.

  • amokta

    You missed nothing, good timing 🙂

  • Skynard

    Yep, thinking the same. Nowhere tape, anticipate a test of them lows though. Stop run is required.

  • bdoone

    MM’s gotta scare the children on both sides.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • SilverEagle

    Will be a lot better when that 100hr drops below 1760. Hate to see yesterday profits evaporate if it shoots for a retest of that 100hr.

  • Ronebadger

    ES – Bear Flag from 1732…waiting it out

  • Skynard

    Forcing myself to take partial profit on some pot stocks. HEMP alone 700%.

  • momac

    ahh, that’s funny, I was just going to ask you how your pot stocks were doing. they are on fire!!!

  • amokta

    Peace man…..

  • Skynard

    Smoke em if you got em:)

  • Skynard

    AUD price objective met, short now. Screwed that trade up.

  • ridingwaves

    that VIX zone of 20-22 is no mans land it seems..could the fed open market sale be used to attack vix thus igniting HFT buy programs

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Hey Mole. Looks like that second little blue arrow is going to earn its keep. Glad I resubbed to Zero – maybe you should make it compulsory 😉

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Zero Q: How should one read that sharp bounce in the Z line on the left panel vs the sidewinder in the right panel?

  • Skynard

    Right panel is hourly slow top/fast bottom, left panel is 5 min and is a weak signal.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Weak because it is still below zero, even though rising?

  • Skynard

    Slow hourly has turned already, now a 5 min signal line breach would be bearish.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    my redneck younger brother just bought some. the top is in!!!
    😉

  • Skynard

    Market getting stuffed right here, div 5 min:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    When those work they work well. The only problem is during trend days when they sometimes throw early signals. Tough to avoid though – i tried.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey, be careful though – the signal has been above the mark most of today so trading down here isn’t easy.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    stuffed? All I see is the 30min banging against the 100 hourly ceiling. [/es]

  • SilverEagle

    30min stuck to that bottom 25hr BB the entire ride down yesterday, doing same today on flipside

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Ya, that is what I mean. It isready to turn. Those small range hourly candle tells me it is struggling. Night Night:)

  • Skynard

    Now we need those sellers, they are lurking:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Maybe I am just a greedy pig, but i haven’t sold a single share.
    Have to say – its mind-boggling to have +500% and +600% positions in my account
    …its a brave new world… wrapped in Job 1.5

  • Skynard

    5 min breach, see if it continues.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    🙂 Spotted that.

  • Skynard

    The thing about it, follow the trend it is your friend. Participation is low and that is what makes it difficult today:) Let’s see if it picks up any!

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Do you tend to take most notice of the top hourly panel?

  • Skynard

    Want to see that slow hourly turn.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    lol try the orange zig zag, must be a pretty big new world to wrap it in those bed sheets!

  • Skynard

    DCB, that is all we have, bear flag 5 min.

  • Skynard

    5 min mainly and watch for div on both. 5 min ST/hourly LT

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    as with any hernia, when it falls out, kind of hard to get back in.

    Let’s see if SPX 1759 acts as a barrier.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28964907271

  • Skynard

    Hehehe:)

  • Skynard

    Also, looking at the 5 min it never broke up to cross a trend line after the div was generated. If we get a bounce off VWAP you will get a signal warning.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Well done, it is not over but my holdings were 10% of my account.

  • momac

    I haven’t sold any yet either, I hope I don’t regret it. 🙂

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Holly! 10!
    I had 3% in it, prepared to lose it all
    Now its much more, makes me uncomfortable