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Tuesday Morning Briefing
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Tuesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleSeptember 30, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-09-30_spoos_briefing

Quiet morning but we have a good ST entry on the equities side – I’m currently long above the 100-hr SMA with a stop below the 25-hr. The former is just about to swing higher and unless the spoos lose ground here the 25 may just drive it higher. It’s becoming do or die time for the bulls – the recent whipsaw increases the chances for continuation lower.

Which also means that I’d be grabbing a short position (1/2 R) if stopped out. Rationalization is that it’s either a fake out lower or it really falls off the plate, in which case even 1/2R would pay off nicely.

I’ve got a nice futures setup waiting below the fold – please join me in the lair:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, if anyone is shopping for my Christmas present….

    http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-29380144

  • RacerXX
  • Skynard

    Enough to run stop, no power. /TF hurting

  • wandering196
  • Malcolm O’Mara

    FAZ @ 16.57 . Stop not set.

  • Skynard

    That should play out nicely for you:)

  • bdoone

    Remember EOM/EOQ today. Market prone to whipsaw (courtesy of algos, of course)

  • bullethead

    Mole you said – “What I do not like about his systems is that there is still quite a bit of subjectivity involved. But you’ll learn a lot about trending behavior and perhaps that’s worth the time/money/trip”

    Based on everything I have read from you and scott is we are trying to remove that “subjectivity” right?

    My story is that I have always been intrigued by the markets. I made a good chunk of change shorting crude in its fall from grace. I was kind enough to return a material portion of it to better traders than myself. I was able to realize I did not know what the hell I was doing before I gave it all back. I really do want to “learn how to fish” and not have someone catch fish for me.

    Since then I have followed traders, blogs etc looking for guys that actually have skin in the game and trying to ascertain if this is nothing but a fools errand or if its possible to actually make a living. I am skeptical as shit. The are two actual real live traders I know (aka live near me, actually talk to them, actually trade their own money) who are completely short term discretionary traders. They have been trading since 97/98 (from back when the SOES trading was all the rage). They both say their is pretty much gonzo due to HFT and lack of volatility. Both said I was nuts to try to get in the game at this point in my life. I am 48.

    I have also seen good traders and good traders’ systems share/sell their trades only to watch them ultimately get worked by whoever they were selling to. That is why I don’t get the point of monetizing Scott’s system if its that friggin good. Again, call me skeptical.

    Anyway, back to VanTharp – I have determined that I want to keep my current company that I own but feel I can fully commit to trading a daily based system. After my kids get thru college, I would entertain trading intraday timeframes if I could find a profitable methodology. With my time constraints – I could attend Longs seminar or Gabriel’s but not both – is it you or Scotts opinion that Long’s would be more applicable to my current goal. Do you think it’s worth the time and investment?

    Thank you for all you guys do. Truly been a pleasure watching this blog mature and turn into a great forum for trading. You have come a long way and that’s no joke.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    how about a cycle?, you and Scott could be riding buddies.

    http://www.comicbookmovie.com/images/users/uploads/20773/gallery11_1309182646.jpg

    😉

  • Skynard

    WOW, CHECK OUT CRUDE.

  • Skynard

    Full short /NQ, /ES on second volume spike.

  • SS_JJ

    I am with you on that trade. Europe’s close. If tape is to reverse, now is the time.

  • Skynard

    This one is going to hurt:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Skynard

    SPX at support 1980.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    inside, inside, inside candle – month end?
    someone is being played.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p22713163326

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Malcolm O’Mara

    One more time FAZ @ 16.55 stop 16.40

  • Ronebadger
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Silver whacked 3%, HL corresponds.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p00848214981

    I said a while ago, no rush. i’ll have to find that link.

  • SS_JJ

    Hat tip to you for what you said back then.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i’m cherry picking my comments.
    but I’m getting better. 😉
    I assumed you stopped out, only bought a little, or honey badger don’t give a F.

  • SS_JJ

    that’s right. Waiting for bucky to reverse before considering buying again

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I hear you mate – and actually I have been debating with myself whether or not I should offer Thor to my subs. Not sure many of you are able to follow it and several of the contracts we trade require decent size accounts.

    The argument you make does apply to the entire blog – you could question my profitability but I think my track records speaks for itself. It’s nice to not having to rely on trading income completely as it gives you a better sense of detachment. Plus it’s been fun for me and I always wanted to help you guys bank some coin. However, that said, there WILL be limitations to how many people can sign up and also regarding the jumping in and out of the strategy. We’ll do our best to help you guys bank coin with Thor and keep you in sync with how we are trading – for instance if we take discretionary entries that bend the coded rules a bit or if we skip one setup for some reason (FOMC, some market event, etc.). But we are only prepared to do that for serious and committed participants. What I DO NOT want to find myself doing is a lot of hand holding and explanations for people who jump out of the system two months later because it may hit a little draw down. It’s quite an investment getting you guys on track and Scott has actually advised me to NOT do it. I still see value but if it becomes to much for me to maintain I will disable signups.

    There will also never be more than 100 subs for Thor – I think that is the limit I feel comfortable with. I will also refuse anyone who’s quite obviously working for some bank, fund, or prop desk. I will make this clear on the tutorial page and reserve the right to reimburse anyone and cut them off if needed. I have given the sub fee a lot of thought and decided to offer a special intro rate of $149 for three months – if it keeps plugging as it has recently I’ll raise it to $199 in early spring. The folks who sign up early will get grandfathered in as well. Anyone who signs up and cancels will not be able to sign up again – it’s a one-time opportunity. I can control that on the amember side very nicely. No patience for retail guys who go on vacation for three weeks and decide they don’t want to pay the sub fee during that time. I even get Gold subscribers who cancel their recurring subs every time they take a few weeks off – still enjoying the recurring price but treating it like a non-recurring one.

    And finally, I’ll be giving all CrazyIvan subs a three month freebie – they’ll deserve as CI has been pushing sideways for six months now. After that they’ll get the chance to sub in for $149 before I’ll raise it to $199.

    I think all of the above is pretty fair. We’re not implementing these limitations because we’ve got a chip on our shoulder but we’re quite confident that our work on Heisenberg and now Thor is going to pay off in spates – for Scott it already has quite handsomely. But you all know that a high SQN system like this is going to make a bit of a splash, in particular if we keep posting a rising equity curve week after week, and month after month. We knew right from the get-go that we would have to limit this to the core rats – if 1000 people and a dozen fund managers start trading this then performance will suffer and we all lose.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i’d like to see a MACD crossover for starters.

  • Skynard

    VWAP, last kiss

  • SS_JJ

    and I would like to see a daily hammer on HL

  • SS_JJ

    on the edge now

  • Skynard

    ZL in concurrence now. Trying to diverge here.

  • Skynard

    Picking /ZC and /ZW here.

  • Skynard

    /NQ below 40 and away we go:)

  • Ronebadger

    VIX is still playing along…as the BB expands.

  • Skynard

    Above the signal line but it is a bear flag.

  • newbfxtrader

    Didnt make a new high this time around while the spy and dow did. Also same for high yield.

  • newbfxtrader

    Sounds good. I just hope you keep it daily charts or something I can follow. I might be your oldest continuous sub? Lol. I never skimped a month.

  • newbfxtrader

    Zero is pretty bearish today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Ronebadger

    yes, definitely a flaf

  • Skynard

    Kinda looking like downtrend, barely touching VWAP

  • bullethead

    Thanks for the response regarding your gig. Personally, I know I would join and never take a trade. I have already done it multiple times 🙂 I want to learn how to fish – just the path I’m on. As far as that system goes, I would rather just give money to Scott and have him trade it using his system since I don’t know the system nor will I know it. Based on what I have seen over the years, I think when you open it up for public consumption it will get hosed. People are whores for money. I hope it doesn’t for yours and Scott’s sake as well as the participants’ – but ….I’m pretty sure you will get one prick that is going to f it up.

  • wandering196

    Hey yesterday you said kilometer so what are you American or Canadian or both. 😉 Don’t know if we can travel to the States this winter with the Cnd dollar dropping with oil or oil dropping with the Cnd dollar.