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Tuesday Night Quickie
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Tuesday Night Quickie

by The MoleAugust 11, 2009

Tomorrow might bestow us with the opposite of what everyone seems to be expecting:

The pattern currently looks incomplete and would ‘look’ best if we tested SPX 1000 and then either dropped or continued to the upside. Of course a continuous drop from here is not impossible but we would need to see a breach of today’s 992.40 low – preferably a breach through 990 as it would trigger a lot of stops. Should that event occur I don’t see much support until around 985 – 980.

BTW, IF we would rip higher tomorrow – let’s say all the way to 1010 – and then start dropping, guess what infamous pattern we would be painting? 😉

I have a hard time counting this chart but it seems to me that we painted a clean (and much larger than expected) motive wave. A little consolidation into 78.9 might be on the table for tomorrow, after which we should see a continuation of this uptrend.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • standard_and_poor

    Portfolio b got dumped on today, let's see what wednesday brings.

    Mr. Brass Monkey Balls also met with an uneventful fate this weekend, a lethal dose
    bourbon and baboon butt curtailed a promising career as assistant dj and playa#2.

    This is dedicated to one of the finest primates that ever ravaged this earth:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALjSXspCpko

  • molecool

    Half of the time I have no idea what you are saying, mate…

  • standard_and_poor

    I'll send you one of my decoder rings. : ) 
     

    ________________________________

  • jamesmarkii

    no one expects a gap down to 980

  • biffermas

    The Pixies Doolittle album is among the finest and most underrated of all time. I also need a decoder ring for the market commentary. You're a cool cat.

  • grednfer

    I buy that…..
    First FOMC equity rally and dollar gets crushed (on QE continuation?…..)
    Then
    Dollar rally and equities get crushed afterwards.

    Any price targets for the USD (U use DX?) or Euro for S&P at 950?
    You know the Euro is right on the 6 month up trend line at 1.41XX. Its about due for a break…..maybe to 1.35? How many ticks is that? 600? 6E at $12.5 per…..I like that action.

    I think Sol should point his capital at the Euro……Lets say 500 6E contracts * 600 ticks *$12.5 per is roughly $3.75M. ……Not bad.

  • TX_Trader

    Great analysis as usual Mole. I can only imagine flowers and sunshine coming from the FED tomorrow despite reality; definitely a day to stay nimble!

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    I was you tube viewer #3657

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    late night read for those who is interested in DeMark

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-silver

    Kevin is wrong more often than right, but he gives some ideas as “what to look for”
    I've spent considerable time trying to convince him back in the beginning of March that “that was the bottom” (for now) – he could not live with an idea that 600 level will not be touched, but anyhow…good read

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no-no-no
    none expects new higher high tomorrow

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    “what infamous pattern we would be painting?”

    IT that shall not be named here…

  • grednfer

    H&S

  • Vardoger

    China giving it up on the SSE and Hang Seng. Pavlov says minor correction and dip buying in US eh?

  • Vardoger

    Kevin sounds smart

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    why do you have to be that way 🙁

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    he is
    but there is a big difference between “smart” and “making money on the real trade” 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Speaking of EU
    if 1.4147 will not hold, then 3896 possible – after that next level up would be 4677
    http://screencast.com/t/kpRrwj3pXrX

    as for 4900 area – it is at least 3-4 weeks away

    and real show stopper will be 5950 if it'll ever gets there

    for tonight – might hit 4160sh…way too flat for my taste

  • grednfer

    Which way might that be?
    I think he was referring to the infamous Head & Shoulder (H&S) pattern…..I don't know…..maybe I need a decoder ring too.
    It is Infamous because with the last S&P H&S pattern everyone thought it would send the market much lower, when in fact it rocketed upwards and bears were sad……like 🙁

  • Vardoger

    Word. Not too hard to make money being short from over 1000 to below 600 tho….

  • fuzzygreysocks

    2009 Federal Funds Rate Decisions & Market Reaction : http://tinyurl.com/ml5ops

  • fuzzygreysocks

    >> The pattern currently looks incomplete and would ‘look’ best if we tested SPX 1000 and then either dropped or continued to the upside. Of course a continuous drop from here is not impossible but we would need to see a breach of today’s 992.40 low – preferably a breach through 990 as it would trigger a lot of stops. Should that event occur I don’t see much support until around 985 – 980. <<

    Market reaction to yet another FFR hold + QE remarks could be anything.
    However, THUs 0830 EST Retail Sales should hold a pretty low bar for blowout Revenue per employee.
    D'ja hear today's whinin'Ngripin' about productivity?
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Productivity-Clim
    HA!
    Q3 EPSs are lookin' good!

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock
  • onorio

    Wave structure seem incomplete, so IMO we gap down to 985 area and rally to 1010 till FOMC announcment, after that i expect more downside.

  • Teich50

    Good call. How did you know ES would test ~985 so soon?

  • Squidman

    LOL! Pretty nice candles for all the sleepy little bears.

  • grednfer

    That was some serious night volume.
    I actually bagged some 986s and some YM stuff as well.

    Now we'll see……Maybe they'll do it all at night so nobody else can play.

    And enjoyed the -60 Euro Crush! I love that 6E.

  • onorio

    I just cover my shorts @ 989.5 and went long @ 990…im gonna try to play a bounce to 1010.

  • onorio

    Like i said wave structure was looking incomplete, as im in europe i try to look at DAX futures for a better view..DAX futures were in a rising wedge, so a new down move was in the table.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole,

    I’m curious, do you feel that you trade better or worse because of your blog? Does it keep you on track? It obviously doesn’t derail you, but does it distract you any from actual trading?

    I’m a lurker, but let me qualify that. I’m no casual lurker. I read all your posts, sometimes twice. I also follow the comments closely during market hours. So, why do I lurk rather than participate?

    Firstly, I have only a few months trading experience so don’t feel like I have as much to give at this point.

    Secondly, I have perpetual writer’s block.

    Thirdly and relatedly, I have ADHD.

    I’m going to put that into perspective. For me, pre-writing is like an explosive big bang followed by a rapid expansion of ideas. I think everything into existence. Amazingly, it’s all there, the entire universe of what I’m thinking and what I want to say. That lasts for about ten seconds. Then I start writing. A half sentence in, the laws of physics change on me. Chaos ensues. There’s a violent contraction followed by a gravitational collapse. I’m left with latent thoughts but no energy to articulate them. In case you’re wondering, college didn’t work out for me. While I aced exams usually without a wink of studying, I could not finish shorter papers on time and couldn’t finish longer papers at all.

    Fourthly, I’ve pretty much given up on writing anything. Even writing a comment like this one takes a hellacious amount of time for me. I have too much to say and too little to say it. Why bother? Why try? No one reads it anyway, and, if they do, they don’t appreciate it, do they? Truly, I empathize with your statement: ”It takes a lot out of you to constantly post.”

    Fifthly, I’ve become an insatiable consumer of information. Becoming a productive producer is out of the question, but maybe I could throw up a chart once in awhile. How sad would it be if I had too much inertia to do that?

    Hey, let me give you a few concrete examples to show you that I appreciate what you do. Your Sunday, July 12th post kept me from getting ensnared in that “yummie, yummie” bear trap. That same post introduced me to the NYSE New Highs New Lows Index. The following Sunday you fleshed out what to expect from that indicator before adding long term short positions. I will be waiting for those now rising moving averages to turn downward, converge, and crossover. Also, you gave a hell of a pep talk, Couch Mole. I played a helluva game during the second half. Although I haven’t put up as many yards as Geronimo, I have been making consistent gains. Thank you for the wave counts. Oh how you must love it when the market obeys. Wow, I could elaborate further. I haven’t written this much in a fuckin’ year. Let me sum everything up by saying that I trade better because of your blog.

    P.S. Do I write like a schizophrenic?

    P.P.S. You should know that your chart of the BAA-TYX yield spread and SPX correlation has me waiting patiently but also salivating for Primary {3}. Where would I be without your effort to dig deeper? The question is, without the motivation to impress us rats, would you have dug deep enough to make that discovery for yourself?

    P.P.P.S. I have a request I hope you will honor. If you take a break (which I encourage you to do when you feel like you’re burning yourself out) or stop your intraday posts altogether (wouldn’t you miss your rats?), please consider continuing to write your Sunday posts from “deep somewhere in the murky depths of the evil lair.” I realize Sunday posts take the most time and effort. That’s because researching and writing them is a labor of love. You’ve said so yourself, right? Wait, that was Takitandrun:

    “Mole, the quality of your diaily posts are VERY impressive, and reflects your skill and experience in the trading world. Can't believe you're willing to do this (nearly) every day, but I know it's a labor of love with you. I review your market & TA evaluations daily, and use them to either re-enforce or question my own trading decisions. Beats being out there on your own, to be sure!”

    He/she/it was talking about your daily posts. They are very impressive. I’m sure intraday traders are especially grateful. Your Sunday posts are EVEN MORE impressive. Swing traders like me treasure them.

  • steveo77

    Yeah, the recession is over….after all, if you can't trust Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs, who can you trust (besides price and volume data)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087

    And this is a non-official pimp of my blog which you now can find through my discus profile, click on the icon.

  • Duuuuuude

    Thanks Mole

  • Bankrupt

    I agree, the recession is over, here comes the depression.

  • steveo77

    +1

  • cptkirk333

    The word always is an interesting word especially concerning the RSI and when it hits 75. Read the article then “always” position yourself. http://seekingalpha.com/article/155137-are-stoc

  • Bankrupt

    gotta love the cnbc. today will be almost surely an up day and they of course interview roubini, marc faber…

    my evil mind thinks they want to “prove” them wrong

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    alas I am indeed alive and well but one must be on the look out for bad baboon butt for that almost did me in.

    For S&P as Shakespeare I give you this quote:

    Why thou globe of sinful continents, what a life dost thou lead!
    -Taken from: Henry IV, part 2

  • springheel_jack

    He is winding the watch of his wit; by and by it will strike.

  • annamall

    Morning Rats, Monkeys, Bears and yes even you Bulls!
    Well I went to bed short EUR/USD 2 lots (even I thought I had cohonnies) and had a stop order in. I woke up 130 pips higher!!! nice dreams FX is so much fun, I am having a blast.
    As far as equities, I feel the same as yesterday, I think we may retest 1000 today, (I believe our leader does too) and then drop to around 970 quite soon, I am still heavy in puts and always hedged like a good girl bear should! Good Day everybody!

  • annamall

    oh no BMB we will put a hit out on that baboon for you! LOL

  • annamall

    I have to say this at the they had them on! they are usually so one sided it's sickening! 🙂

  • annamall

    hahahah he has his own language! 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    IMHO that is a very harmful interpretation of RSI and is hazardous for your money
    Add 2 additional levels 38,62 set it 21 and watch these new lines on daily – you'll figure it out.

  • dumamae

    it's spelled kahoonies

  • playtowin

    Bit confused as to how anyone short the euro can be up this morning as of now as in fact the euro is 70 points up since earlier! Unless you got out on that brief blip down I guess but your post doesn't imply that.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not for the top 3% earners (or should I say – “stealers”) – so why would THEY care

  • dumamae

    or cohones spanish version

  • playtowin

    Marc Faber was brilliant – global meltdown ahead! Roubini is flip flopping – seems like the powers to be have got to him.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    many Thanks Anna! I'm sure S&P will offer assistance.

  • onorio

    1010 please A!

    Im long since 990 and i want to load my truck of puts arround that area 😀

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup, virtually every quant measure that I follow says that today ought to be up.

    So you bring the bears on Bubblevision in the morning to set them up for discrediting in the afternoon.

    We'll just see where the market closes a week from Monday – and where the economy is in 2010. 😉

  • Kemal_1

    I am looking for a first five wave impulse (it is not a leading diagonal) to finish today. The target zone is between 986 – 993.

    After that first impulse, I expect a wave 2 rally. Waves 2 typically retrace at least 50% of the previous decline. 62% is also common. Whatever the exact retracement, I expect it to peak Thursday. A wave 3 down should follow.

    Good luck.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    since someone is taking orders – SPX 1018.25 plz

  • Coldwarvet

    Looking at the ON, wondering how much of that somewhat mysterious dump we retrace this morning.
    One pundit has expressed the view that what we saw was simply stop-running to prepare for today's ramp – I'm not so sure.

  • annamall

    if you look @ the overnight chart, it touched 140.80 on my limit order about 3am or so.

    I am out of it now. I put in OCO order before sleepytime

  • annamall

    LOL yes I think so
    I could have gotten a bit more, but who's getting greedy
    🙂

  • Divertom

    Welcome to fed day.. Go big or go home..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk0xmCZQWmk

  • annamall

    Will try to help O and D! Love you both! 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    quite strangely 2 and 4 retraces lately were either very deep (76%) or really shallow (23%)
    what puzzles me even more 2 AND 4 mostly have the same retrace as 62 AND 62 as oppose to 62/38 ideal scenario. (no matter up or down waves)

  • annamall

    He can be my assistant and we will take out that nasty baboon! 😉

  • mrBozo

    What about us clowns!

    when you're climbing the ladder ahead of
    others, all they see is an ass.

  • annamall

    hahahahah that was funny! 😀

  • GDII

    morning / evening my fellow rats.
    i am american, living in china. i am male. doesn't sound like mole is going to talk to me. lol
    i took 2 days off and went to the previous capital of china to check out the meteor shower. it is not as exciting as i expected. 🙁
    anyway, the chinese tree got problem. gravity seems have a chinese version as well.
    is p3 coming? is p3 coming? is p3 coming?

  • Bricks

    990 is a pretty solid ES support. I see it broke briefly last night but on very little volume. It has held up for nearly 2 weeks now. Unless that breaks with some force we'll see about 1005 again.
    http://screencast.com/t/Jn3n5irKc

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Probably ES makes a half-hearted test at the overnight lows after the open, we'll see.

    On the sentiment front we got retail sales and business inventories Thursday morning. CPI, industrial production and Michigan sentiment on Friday. And of course, Asia's reaction to the FOMC statement tonight.

    Thanks and good luck to you to Kemal!

  • annamall

    Back in short EuR/USD

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    he might talk to you if you are hot and P3 IS coming

  • bklnyc

    So the overnight move below 986 was not all the down move we will get before the blast higher? Thanks.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Hey, we got it right – the move down to 984-986! With that retracement back into positive territory earlier this morning it looks like a mirror image off 998.25 low on Monday. If we get down there again Idon't expect it to hold. Intermediate target 968-971.

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks for the compliment friend, here's your decoder ring straight from Shakespeare's mouth:
      
    Be neither bull nor bear
    Be neither lender nor borrower
    Fail to care how ye shall fare
    And markets shall not make thee cower  
     

     

    ________________________________

  • GDII

    man u don't sleep? i checked the time u post here. it seems u trade around the world and post around clock. lol

  • lester

    homebulders strong XHB TOL

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    they call it “sleeptrading”

  • standard_and_poor

    You've been reincarnated as an eloquent primate.
    Glad to here your still around.

  • lester

    anyone adding to shorts on this pop?

  • biffermas

    Here is some insight into this week's OMO activity. In a nutshell: the Treasury held a 3-year note auction in July, of which 13.4B was “purchased” by primary dealers. These dealers then were able to unload 4.1B of these monday onto the Federal Reserve via the POMO auctions. I'm sure they kept a nice bonus for their troubles; hiding the fed's quantitative easing scheme can't be popular among the common folk, but hey, nobody is paying attention anyway.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/155491-today-s-

  • playtowin

    that certainly wasn't clear from your above post but glad you made money!
    I would hardly describe FX as fun – in fact is pretty dangerous to trade from the US as much of the action happens as Europe wakes up. So unless you want to stay up all night it can be very stressful.

  • playtowin

    what's up with everyone putting a ' like' strike against virtually every comment being made – however inane they are!

  • onorio

    Not yet lester, wait for 1000 at least.

  • fa_q

    Jam shot this morning. Time to reshort the NQ. 1/2 at 1690.

  • GDII

    good one, as always.
    for the weaken usd play, i tried to short faz at open but i could not borrow any shares. then fortunately i decide to long qm.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Re-Loading some shorts here ES 998. Looking to cover this addition before this afternoon.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    In fact right at the open the CBOE MMs hit my limit order price on the SPY 100 puts. So I am out of the overnight straddle hedge and am 100% long on the SPY 100 calls. (With a “dumb” stop order too in case I am totally wrong on the day setup.)

    All my quant indicators were pointing up, and the tape is verifying thank goodness.

    Important for today Lester: watch your overall delta! Elephants may play after FOMC statement – rats must not get crushed to see another day.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    oh yes..
    closed yesterday's bad long /nq @1604.25( the only piece I held overnight with no stops) at 1608.25
    what a pathetic behavior – just to prove that I am right…BUT – not a single losing trade for yesterday as of this moment.
    Now I can sleep till after FOMC – short ladders parked based on SPX 1018.25

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning rats and monkeys.
    77% long coming into (not 87%) this morning.
    Plain and simple english. If confusion ensues get ye a dictionary.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    might this still be wave 4?

  • annamall

    that sucks! sorry to hear that, I guess there must ba allot of peeps that want to short it. 🙂

  • annamall

    We now we blew threw the 1000 mark, I am adding puts here.

  • shortcover

    in TZA…

  • standard_and_poor

    Here's a well worn example of alliteration in rock and among the bard's best, enjoy:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0fAgVPU1FQ

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    That's exactly what I think.

  • Douala

    annamall…

    Becareful of playtowin …she [so she claims to be] looks like a real trouble maker. I would ignore her responses to any or your post.

    see https://evilspeculator.com/?p=9992#comment-14689439 for her coming out post!

  • lester

    I am glad I did not add earlier…gonna add some at 9:10 or so. Will you hold your Puts thru FOMC today?

  • annamall

    Morning SP now who are we now? LOL

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    You mean like this?
    http://tinyurl.com/mu752r

  • Bankrupt

    ok, that was that for you bears out there.

  • shortcover

    totally off topic…but both of our avatars died on april 24, 1616…what are the odds?

  • Bankrupt

    you mean 1610?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    maybe SSC, but i should have written iv, wandering if this is iv of v of A or 1. thus i went to 1004, ii to 1007, iii to 992 so if this is iv it should turn down real soon

  • Scrillhog

    No offense but who really cares?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    damn this is an impulsive correction, hmmm, damn near 50% already

  • annamall

    yep. 🙂

  • playtowin

    I do! It is lowering the quality of the site just to listen to people high fiving!

  • lester

    pissed I missed this run…I was watching for that 986-993 range that Kemal was talking about. I guess that happened overnite….

  • ropey

    gap filled at 100.77 on the SPY

  • annamall

    I hate to say it, but let's hope the housing data stinks! LOL

  • jd60

    I feel like I've just been punk'd

  • bist

    Sold my bac puts from friday and added a few bac sept $16 calls. I'll short again above 1010, if we get there. I feel like short term downside is limited.

    I was in NY the past few days on vacation and happened to talk to a trader at a hedge fund. They're still net long but have been ordered to become neutral by the end of august.

    He also told me some interesting stuff like when C fell to 99 cents, they were ordered to acquire any and all available C shares for 1.02, and that they acquired a lot of Wachovia shares initially following the deal with C but before WFC stepped in. However they are staying away from CIT like the plague though they do believe that the government won't let them fail.

  • Bankrupt

    shorted nq @ 1618

  • ropey

    it's almost like they didn't spend their POMO money till this morning

  • St Deluise

    what, that giant green nightstick jab to the nards?

  • Niktus

    What housing dat ais that? Mortgage market? That came out 3h ago and it was negative data.

  • fa_q

    I added the other half at 1620. Back in full at 1615

  • Tronacate

    Geronimo signals come via e-mail?

  • Bankrupt

    there will be another runs. I am pissed too, bought @ 992 and sold @ 996. made a few bucks but really….

  • lester

    added SPY Puts (Sep 98s). Now 20% short 80% cash.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Added IWM Puts (Sep) & IYR Puts (Aug)

  • annamall

    Just same out Nik.

  • annamall

    Good man! A guy after my own heart! Mooooo!

  • Coldwarvet

    Helluva nice call, Mole! I wish I'd had the guts to long the /ES PM. Did pick up some calls on y'day's lows and those are hedging my bleeding puts some.

  • annamall

    and SMS.

  • dingos

    Exactly. Think they are nervous about the Fed announcement and trying to pump this morning?

  • annamall

    Mole hats off to your analysis last night, you were spot on mate! 🙂

  • pricey

    You should get an avatar before you complain.

  • colonel_bleep

    Toll Brothers TOL up 11% on new home signups

  • Keirsten

    I love irony.

  • playtowin

    why??? what has an avatar got to do with anything. and I will complain if I want to. No wonder Mole wants to take a break!

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Market is about to bust a move.

  • Niktus

    Not sure i got you there. Here is the data.

    http://screencast.com/t/PdUSlEMx

  • Bankrupt

    sold es 1004

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Same here. Hit my target and I bought near overnight low. Felt great for 30 seconds when I let them back out at 998.50 for a 12 point scalp. Did wonders for my breakeven, though.

  • Tronacate

    I'm a dummy….SMS?

  • lester

    I assume up?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    That happened overnight all right, on the ES. Elliot Wave has been verifying really really well this week.

    BTW I cashed out of my SPY 100 Aug calls when I saw $1.90 flash on them. That rise at the open was just too damn fast – but SPY could definitely rise some more from here.

    And alphahorn is spot on: this is a corrective pattern top. The higher it goes, the bigger it'll fall. 😛

  • lester

    I will second that, excelllent analysis.

  • Iguanadon

    Makes perfect sense to me. 19 million empty houses means only one thing… we need to build more!

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    It's what I see.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    might get short 10:27 before crude rpt

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Looking to short /NQ here… nice trendline forming over the last week give a fairly tight stop.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    don't overlook that it is a part of desc bullish channel

  • annamall

    All right you dingo's let's stop going up on absolutely nothing, down I say down, WHIP, SLAP, PADDLE!
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • marketmaker

    The non-federal no-reserves announcement later –

    Could this be a case of buy the rumor, sell the news?

  • marketmaker

    The non-federal no-reserves announcement later –

    Could this be a case of buy the rumor, sell the news?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    bad link

  • innatedc

    Phew!! My risk to keep an overnight long call on SSO paid off…..gonna ride it with a trailstop and then see what this aft. brings….David, did you do the same? Are your gonads as big as mine….LOL!!

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning sweetness. The new avatar is Shakespeare. Hope all is good. 
     

     

    ________________________________

  • dingos

    Hey what did I do? 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    let's have a nice little double top at 1007 SPX

  • standard_and_poor

    Hah, great minds die alike!
     

    ________________________________

  • lester

    what is the timing for that top? this week, next week, Sept? I guess we would all like to know that though…

  • http://partiallystapled.com/ gxti

    Text message.

  • annamall

    ooops sorry, forgot about you you're excluded! heheheeh

  • Keirsten

    I noticed your complaint last evening. I have posted many, many charts for months on end on ES, as well as posting TA intraday. Not all of us use EW for TA, in fact, some of us don't use it at all! Fancy that! Furthermore, there are many posters that are newbies to trading and really can't contribute much at all except to try and interact and learn from others. Hopefully that is okay with you, and hopefully your complaint won't deter some of the “girls,” from contributing and interacting on ES.

    I also find it odd for people to complain about non-contributors, yet they don't post TA themselves, save for the occasional question about a wave count.

    Have a nice day.

  • harveydent

    WTF FABER get off the screen!

  • GDII

    /dx potential retracement around 78.9?

  • shortcover

    SRS holding up well…

  • annamall

    ditto Alpha nice call earlier!

  • lester

    I assume you are short SPY? (I cannot keep up on all the posts) I am 20% short, 80% cash…

  • standard_and_poor

    Have a great day rats and stay positive!

    Hamlet, Act IV, Sc. V
    “We know what we are, but know not what we may be.”

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah i'm short lester, i'm one of the few that believe we topped last week at 1018

  • annamall

    you too Hamlet! 😀

  • Bricks

    History is littered with the broken visions of those that can predict the future, but here is a potential view of the S&P between now and Nov/Dec
    http://screencast.com/t/stdEcxDk

  • annamall

    Nope I am with you! 🙂

  • annamall

    Nope I am with you! 🙂

  • pricey

    They wanted it in their mattress one more night

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning Miss K., you're looking good!

  • annamall

    stupid Disqus Let me try that again you will like

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • Keirsten

    Why thank you S&P. When do we get an updated, patented S&P roadmap? It's been awhile!

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    cat fight…I'm laying odds…anybody want in?

    FWIW, Keirsten analysis consistantly outstanding and deep….be careful with criticism. As for me, I'm a one-eyed monkey … thats my excuse and I'm sticking with it!

  • lester

    I have a buddy that thinks we go to 1070 for top…I am inclined to believe, that is whay I am 80% cash, waiting to see this resolve…

  • harveydent

    come on 970
    daddy needs a new pair of shoes
    no really i do… 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    not a bad idea at all!

  • Bankrupt

    anyone seen mole? has he gone to the slope too?

    they really don't want this sucker to sell off

  • annamall

    ok should we removfe yours?

  • Keirsten

    The quality/timing of the volume may give us some fairly good clues in the next few days as far as deciphering what the institutions are up to currently. Late day sell-offs are a good signal the institutional money may be taking the backdoor exit, as that's when they're most active. We've have two pretty good days of this so far- just something to watch. They take it down, lure in dip buyers and then sell off in the last 15 minutes. Anyway- just something to keep an eye on.

  • annamall

    You need to chill out or take a long break, Youre too negative and wound up!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Oh, this week for sure if the waves continue to verify. As to when: watch the tape.

    EW is sentiment psychology driven. So the exact timing of how a pattern plays out tomorrow depends in part on how things move today. Monday and Tuesday were slow days and patterns got stretched out. Today looks like a fast one – but it would not surprise me if trading dries up prior to the FOMC statement.

    After FOMC, possible sentiment changers this week (most are when NYSE is closed):
    – Asia's FOMC reaction tonight;
    – Retail sales, initial claims, export/import at 8:30 tomorrow, biz inventories at 10:00;
    – CPI, industrial production before the open Friday, and the Mich consumer sentiment at 9:55.

    Land mines for the bulls!

  • annamall

    hey K, I see it, Point up girl! 🙂

  • lester

    I am sure that Geronimo must be making a killing today….

  • PeterK80

    Alpha… have you seen this chart that was posted on SOH? (not that I ever go there 😉 I thought it was pretty impressive… and we should be topping in the Q's
    http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e00989822

    I also am one of the few that belive we have topped partially because everyone is expecting a finally push. Instead I am looking at us bouncing around here for a while and accelerating to the downside towards September.

  • playtowin

    If you read last night you will also then notice that Mole himself said he was concerned about the quality on the site.
    I had thought that it was primarily an Elliott wave site due to Mole's posts. I apologize if I was mistaken on that point.
    You seem very 'touchy' about the 'girl' comment and obviously feel it was directed at you. To be honest it was more of a general observation. I don't hear the guys on here discussing getting ready for dates or what they ate for lunch! Sometimes when the 'girls' are talking I feel like I am on what I would imagine a dating site is like. For me it detracts from what is a quality site and maybe it is the reason others have moved on.
    But equally I accept if I am in the minority and you are all happy with it as it is.
    If you care to look at other posts I made yesterday which unfortunately as they are related to EW on the Euro/USD it won't be of interest to you then you will see I did give a projection. Yes I ask questions because I am learning all the time. If I see someone give a count that I don't understand or am considering then I will ask questions about it. I have studied EW analysis for 12 years and feel I have only touched the surface in that time.
    Okay from the posts that the 'girls' are now firing off you clearly want me gone. No problem. I will continue to read Mole – he is one of the best out there as you already all know.

  • K.I.M.

    let's hope trendline will stay only touched

  • annamall

    goint point Miss afro do!! heheheh, Let them run this up, before the fed minutes come out, this air will come out of the bubble. if not today then tomorrow. I believe you said “they are buying rumor, selling news. Could be that or just the PPT came in to save the bulls balls!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Kemal are you lurking by chance? i saw you backed off your LD, but this sure looks like what you forecasted under that scenario. SPX has already retraced close to 61.8%

  • playtowin

    No but I do get wound up when I see posts about trades that don't add up. Your pre-edited post on the euro was sent to me!
    You can fire away but I won't be posting which I am sure will suit you just fine.

  • Bankrupt

    now is the chance to sell off

  • annamall

    enough of you, You need to get some lady! Your being mad that I made some $ last night is just sick. You have a total of 22 points and 5 you got this morning. So go bitch somewhere else.

  • innatedc

    I've seen a couple of variations of it with the difference being timeline…some of the charts have us lurking here longer….I guess in time for summer to finish and the big boys come back….

  • onorio

    Close my morning 990 calls for a nice profit, and im ready to load on puts! Waiting for some neg. divergence or some weakness.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • wex

    Is that a picture of you when you were in Nursing School?

  • annamall

    Well I gave back some of my 130 pips (darn it) by going short EUR too soon. oh well. Gave back 60 pips (ouch) then scalped a few pips back.
    I am still in puts

  • Lordted

    Stone the Crows… Billy Shake me down…. Swipe me

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup I took profits on my long SPY calls after the retrace blew well past 50% at 10AM. Buying pressure started to back off a bit there.

    Maybe we go to past 62% all the way to 78% – or maybe we oscillate here until FOMC.

    Day job stuff calls now, meanwhile I need to think about what to do post-FOMC…

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Ohhhhhh God!!!!!

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Looks Mooo ish to me.

  • Squidman

    Remember the cycle is different, countertrend at asian monkey hour with persons at your back is safer.

  • grednfer

    Don't give up…..it pretty much follows the S&P (right now).

    So short it around 1010……

    I'm looking for 1.425……..6E rules…..better ROI than ES.

  • ropey

    action is still bullish, expecting a pop to the highs of the other day, they have a gap to fill on SPX at 1010 or so – it's small. They're currently backtesting the channel they broke down from the other day..

  • Keirsten

    I meant to thank you for that comment BMB. 😉 I see no reason for anyone here to have to walk on eggshells- and I'd really hate to think the newbies in particular would be afraid to ask questions or just chat.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    no problem K. much is gained from reading your posts.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Morning Rats, Monkeys, Bears and yes even you Bulls!
    Well I went to bed short EUR/USD 2 lots (even I thought I had cohonnies) and had a stop order in. I woke up 130 pips higher!!! nice dreams FX is so much fun, I am having a blast.
    As far as equities, I feel the same as yesterday, I think we may retest 1000 today, (I believe our leader does too) and then drop to around 970 quite soon, I am still heavy in puts and always hedged like a good girl bear should! Good Day everybody!

  • dumamae

    it's spelled kahoonies

  • playtowin

    Bit confused as to how anyone short the euro can be up this morning as of now as in fact the euro is 70 points up since earlier! Unless you got out on that brief blip down I guess but your post doesn't imply that.

  • dumamae

    or cohones spanish version

  • Onorio

    1010 please A!

    Im long since 990 and i want to load my truck of puts arround that area 😀

  • Kemal_1

    I am looking for a first five wave impulse (it is not a leading diagonal) to finish today. The target zone is between 986 – 993.

    After that first impulse, I expect a wave 2 rally. Waves 2 typically retrace at least 50% of the previous decline. 62% is also common. Whatever the exact retracement, I expect it to peak Thursday. A wave 3 down should follow.

    Good luck.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    since someone is taking orders – SPX 1018.25 plz

  • Coldwarvet

    Looking at the ON, wondering how much of that somewhat mysterious dump we retrace this morning.
    One pundit has expressed the view that what we saw was simply stop-running to prepare for today's ramp – I'm not so sure.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    if you look @ the overnight chart, it touched 140.85, I had a limit of 140.90 on my limit order about 3am or so. Plus I was in the trade since yesterday early afternoon.

    I am out of it now. I put in OCO order before sleepytime

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    LOL yes I think so
    I could have gotten a bit more, but who's getting greedy
    🙂

  • Divertom

    Welcome to fed day.. Go big or go home..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk0xmCZQWmk

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Will try to help O and D! Love you both! 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    quite strangely 2 and 4 retraces lately were either very deep (76%) or really shallow (23%)
    what puzzles me even more 2 AND 4 mostly have the same retrace as 62 AND 62 as oppose to 62/38 ideal scenario. (no matter up or down waves)

  • mrBozo

    What about us clowns!

    when you're climbing the ladder ahead of
    others, all they see is an ass.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahahah that was funny! 😀

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    morning / evening my fellow rats.
    i am american, living in china. i am male. doesn't sound like mole is going to talk to me. lol
    i took 2 days off and went to the previous capital of china to check out the meteor shower. it is not as exciting as i expected. 🙁
    anyway, the chinese tree got problem. gravity seems have a chinese version as well.
    is p3 coming? is p3 coming? is p3 coming?

  • Bricks

    990 is a pretty solid ES support. I see it broke briefly last night but on very little volume. It has held up for nearly 2 weeks now. Unless that breaks with some force we'll see about 1005 again.
    http://screencast.com/t/Jn3n5irKc

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Probably ES makes a half-hearted test of the overnight lows after the open, we'll see.

    On the sentiment front we got retail sales and business inventories Thursday morning. CPI, industrial production and Michigan sentiment on Friday. And of course, Asia's reaction to the FOMC statement tonight.

    Thanks and good luck to you to Kemal!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Back in short EuR/USD

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    he might talk to you if you are hot and P3 IS coming

  • bklnyc

    So the overnight move below 986 was not all the down move we will get before the blast higher? Thanks.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Hey, we got it right – the move down to 984-986! With that retracement back into positive territory earlier this morning it looks like a mirror image off 998.25 low on Monday. If we get down there again Idon't expect it to hold. Intermediate target 968-971.

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    man u don't sleep? i checked the time u post here. it seems u trade around the world and post around clock. lol

  • lester

    homebulders strong XHB TOL

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    they call it “sleeptrading”

  • standard_and_poor

    You're wear your eloquence as well as your eyepatch.
    Glad to here you're still around.

  • lester

    anyone adding to shorts on this pop? I am considering to do it.

  • Biffermas

    Here is some insight into this week's OMO activity. In a nutshell: the Treasury held a 3-year note auction in July, of which 13.4B was “purchased” by primary dealers. These dealers then were able to unload 4.1B of these monday onto the Federal Reserve via the POMO auctions. I'm sure they kept a nice bonus for their troubles; hiding the fed's quantitative easing scheme can't be popular among the common folk, but hey, nobody is paying attention anyway.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/155491-today-s-

  • playtowin

    that certainly wasn't clear from your above post but glad you made money!
    I would hardly describe FX as fun – in fact is pretty dangerous to trade from the US as much of the action happens as Europe wakes up. So unless you want to stay up all night it can be very stressful.

  • playtowin

    what's up with everyone putting a ' like' strike against virtually every comment being made – however inane they are!

  • Onorio

    Not yet lester, wait for 1000 at least.

  • fa_q

    Jam shot this morning. Time to reshort the NQ. 1/2 at 1690.

    Edit – clearly a typo although the way it's ramping, you never know. That was 1610

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    good one, as always.
    for the weaken usd play, i tried to short faz at open but i could not borrow any shares. then fortunately i decide to long qm.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Re-Loading some shorts here ES 998. Looking to cover this addition before this afternoon.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    In fact right at the open the CBOE MMs hit my limit order price on the SPY 100 puts. So I am out of the overnight straddle hedge and am 100% long on the SPY 100 calls. (With a “dumb” stop order too in case I am totally wrong on the day setup.)

    All of my quant and TA indicators were pointing up, and the tape is verifying thank goodness!

    Important for today Lester: watch your overall delta! Elephants may play after FOMC statement. Rats must not get crushed to see another day.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    oh yes..
    closed yesterday's bad long /nq @1604.25( the only piece I held overnight with no stops) at 1608.25
    what a pathetic behavior – just to prove that I am right…BUT – not a single losing trade for yesterday as of this moment.
    Now I can sleep till after FOMC – short ladders parked based on SPX 1018.25

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning rats and monkeys.
    77% long coming into (not 87%) this morning.
    Plain and simple english. If confusion ensues get ye a dictionary.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    might this still be wave 4?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    that sucks! sorry to hear that, I guess there must ba allot of peeps that want to short it. 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    We now we blew threw the 1000 mark, I am adding puts here.

  • shortcover

    in TZA…

  • standard_and_poor

    Here's a well worn example of alliteration in rock and among the bard's best, enjoy:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0fAgVPU1FQ

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    That's exactly what I think.

  • Douala

    annamall…

    Becareful of playtowin …she [so she claims to be] looks like a real trouble maker. I would ignore her responses to any or your post.

    see https://evilspeculator.com/?p=9992#comment-14689439 for her coming out post!

  • lester

    I am glad I did not add earlier…gonna add some at 9:10 or so. Will you hold your Puts thru FOMC today?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Morning SP now who are we now? LOL

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    You mean like this?
    http://tinyurl.com/mu752r

    FWIW I do think there is more downside in the next few days

  • Bankrupt

    ok, that was that for you bears out there.

  • shortcover

    totally off topic…but both of our avatars died on april 24, 1616…what are the odds?

  • Bankrupt

    you mean 1610?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    maybe SSC, but i should have written iv, wandering if this is iv of v of A or 1. thus i went to 1004, ii to 1007, iii to 992 so if this is iv it should turn down real soon

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    No offense but who really cares?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    damn this is an impulsive correction, hmmm, damn near 50% already

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yep. 🙂

  • playtowin

    I do! It is lowering the quality of the site just to listen to people high fiving!

  • lester

    pissed I missed this run…I was watching for that 986-993 range that Kemal was talking about. I guess that happened overnite….

  • ropey

    gap filled at 100.77 on the SPY

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Home sales data, hope it sucks! LOL

  • jd60

    I feel like I've just been punk'd

  • http://spychart.net spycharter

    Sold my bac puts from friday and added a few bac sept $16 calls. I'll short again above 1010, if we get there. I feel like short term downside is limited.

    I was in NY the past few days on vacation and happened to talk to a trader at a hedge fund. They're still net long but have been ordered to become neutral by the end of august.

    He also told me some interesting stuff like when C fell to 99 cents, they were ordered to acquire any and all available C shares for 1.02, and that they acquired a lot of Wachovia shares initially following the deal with C but before WFC stepped in. However they are staying away from CIT like the plague though they do believe that the government won't let them fail.

  • Bankrupt

    shorted nq @ 1618

  • ropey

    it's almost like they didn't spend their POMO money till this morning

  • St. Deluise

    what, that giant green nightstick jab to the nards?

  • Niktus

    What housing data is that? Mortgage market? That came out 3h ago and it was negative data.

  • fa_q

    I added the other half at 1620. Back in full at 1615

  • Tronacate

    Geronimo signals come via e-mail?

  • Bankrupt

    there will be another runs. I am pissed too, bought @ 992 and sold @ 996. made a few bucks but really….

  • lester

    added SPY Puts (Sep 98s). Now 20% short 80% cash.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Added IWM Puts (Sep) & IYR Puts (Aug)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just came out Nik.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Good man! A guy after my own heart! Mooooo!

  • Coldwarvet

    Helluva nice call, Mole! I wish I'd had the guts to long the /ES PM. Did pick up some calls on y'day's lows and those are hedging my bleeding puts some.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    and SMS.

  • dingos

    Exactly. Think they are nervous about the Fed announcement and trying to pump this morning?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Mole hats off to your analysis last night, you were spot on mate! 🙂

  • pricey

    You should get an avatar before you complain.

  • colonel_bleep

    Toll Brothers TOL up 11% on new home signups

  • Keirsten

    I love irony.

  • playtowin

    why??? what has an avatar got to do with anything. and I will complain if I want to. No wonder Mole wants to take a break!

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Market is about to bust a move.

  • Niktus

    Not sure i got you there. Here is the data.

    http://screencast.com/t/PdUSlEMx

  • Bankrupt

    sold es 1004

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Same here. Hit my target and I bought near overnight low. Felt great for 30 seconds when I let them back out at 998.50 for a 12 point scalp. Did wonders for my breakeven, though.

  • Tronacate

    I'm a dummy….SMS?

  • lester

    I assume up?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    That happened overnight all right on the ES. Overnight low was 986 at 3:18AM US Easern. Elliot Wave has been verifying really really well this week.

    BTW I cashed out of my SPY 100 Aug calls when I saw $1.90 flash on them (SPY 100.85 / SPX 1007 / ES 1005). That rise at the open was just too damn fast. Price momentum is waning now but SPY could definitely rise some more from here.

    And alphahorn is spot on: this is a corrective pattern top. The higher it goes, the bigger it'll fall. 😛

  • lester

    I will second that, excelllent analysis.

  • Iguanadon

    Makes perfect sense to me. 19 million empty houses means only one thing… we need to build more!

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    It's what I see.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    might get short 10:27 before crude rpt

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Looking to short /NQ here… nice trendline forming over the last week give a fairly tight stop.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    don't overlook that it is a part of desc bullish channel

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    All right you dingo's let's stop going up on absolutely nothing, down I say down, WHIP, SLAP, PADDLE!
    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • marketmaker

    The non-federal no-reserves announcement later –

    Could this be a case of buy the rumor, sell the news?

  • marketmaker

    The non-federal no-reserves announcement later –

    Could this be a case of buy the rumor, sell the news?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    bad link

  • innatedc

    Phew!! My risk to keep an overnight long call on SSO paid off…..gonna ride it with a trailstop and then see what this aft. brings….David, did you do the same? Are your gonads as big as mine….LOL!!

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning sweetness. The new avatar is Shakespeare. Hope all is good. 
     

     

    ________________________________

  • dingos

    Hey what did I do? 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    let's have a nice little double top at 1007 SPX

  • standard_and_poor

    Hah, great minds die alike! : )
     

    ________________________________

  • lester

    what is the timing for that corrective pattern top? this week, next week, Sept? I guess we would all like to know that though…

  • http://partiallystapled.com/ gxti

    Text message.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ooops sorry, forgot about you you're excluded! heheheeh

  • Keirsten

    I noticed your complaint last evening. I have posted many, many charts for months on end on ES, as well as posting TA intraday. Not all of us use EW for TA, in fact, some of us don't use it at all! Fancy that! Furthermore, there are many posters that are newbies to trading and really can't contribute much at all except to try and interact and learn from others. Hopefully that is okay with you, and hopefully your complaint won't deter some of the “girls,” from contributing and interacting on ES.

    I also find it odd for people to complain about non-contributors, yet they don't post TA themselves, save for the occasional question about a wave count.

    Have a nice day.

  • harveydent

    WTF FABER get off the screen!

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    /dx potential retracement around 78.9?

  • shortcover

    SRS holding up well…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ditto Alpha nice call earlier!

  • lester

    I assume you are short SPY? (I cannot keep up on all the posts) I am 20% short, 80% cash…

  • standard_and_poor

    Have a great day rats and stay positive!

    Hamlet, Act IV, Sc. V
    “We know what we are, but know not what we may be.”

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah i'm short lester, i'm one of the few that believe we topped last week at 1018

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    you too Hamlet! 😀

  • Bricks

    History is littered with the broken visions of those that can predict the future, but here is a potential view of the S&P between now and Nov/Dec
    http://screencast.com/t/stdEcxDk

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Nope I am with you! 🙂

  • pricey

    They wanted it in their mattress one more night

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning Miss K., you're looking good!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    stupid Disqus Let me try that again you will like, ok works now!

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folder

  • Keirsten

    Why thank you S&P. When do we get an updated, patented S&P roadmap? It's been awhile!

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    cat fight…I'm laying odds…anybody want in?

    FWIW, Keirsten analysis consistantly outstanding and deep….be careful with criticism. As for me, I'm a one-eyed monkey … thats my excuse and I'm sticking with it!

  • lester

    I have a buddy that thinks we go to 1070 for top…I am inclined to believe, that is whay I am 80% cash, waiting to see this resolve…

  • harveydent

    come on 970
    daddy needs a new pair of shoes
    no really i do… 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    not a bad idea at all!

  • Bankrupt

    anyone seen mole? has he gone to the slope too?

    they really don't want this sucker to sell off

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ok should we remove yours?

  • Keirsten

    The quality/timing of the volume may give us some fairly good clues in the next few days as far as deciphering what the institutions are up to currently. Late day sell-offs are a good signal the institutional money may be taking the backdoor exit, as that's when they're most active. We've had two pretty good days of this so far- just something to watch. They take it down, lure in dip buyers and then sell off in the last 15 minutes. Anyway- just something to keep an eye on.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    You need to chill out or take a long break, Youre too negative and wound up!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Oh, this week for sure if the waves continue to verify. As to when: watch the tape.

    EW is sentiment psychology driven. So the exact timing of how a pattern plays out tomorrow depends in part on how things move today. Monday and Tuesday were slow days and patterns got stretched out. Today looks like a fast one. But it would not surprise me if trading dries up now prior to the FOMC statement.

    After FOMC, possible sentiment changers this week (note most happen when NYSE is closed):
    – Asia's FOMC reaction tonight;
    – Retail sales, initial claims, export/import at 8:30 tomorrow, biz inventories at 10:00;
    – CPI, industrial production before the open Friday, and the Mich consumer sentiment at 9:55.

    Land mines for the bulls!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hey K, I see it, Point up girl! 🙂

  • lester

    I am sure that Geronimo must be making a killing today….

  • PeterK80

    Alpha… have you seen this chart that was posted on SOH? (not that I ever go there 😉 I thought it was pretty impressive… and we should be topping in the Q's
    http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e00989822

    I also am one of the few that belive we have topped partially because everyone is expecting a finally push. Instead I am looking at us bouncing around here for a while and accelerating to the downside towards September.

  • K.I.M.

    let's hope trendline will stay only touched, well SL at 1010 in place.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    goint point Miss Afro Do!! heheheh,
    Let them run this up, before the fed minutes come out, this air will come out of the bubble. if not today then tomorrow. I believe you said “they are buying rumor, selling news. Could be that or just the PPT came in to save the bulls balls!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Kemal are you lurking by chance? i saw you backed off your LD, but this sure looks like what you forecasted under that scenario. SPX has already retraced close to 61.8%

  • Bankrupt

    now is the chance to sell off

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    enough of you, You need to get some lady! Your being mad that I made some $ last night is just sick. You have a total of 22 points and 5 you got this morning. So go bitch somewhere else.

  • innatedc

    I've seen a couple of variations of it with the difference being timeline…some of the charts have us lurking here longer….I guess in time for summer to finish and the big boys come back….

  • Onorio

    Close my morning 990 calls for a nice profit, and im ready to load on puts! Waiting for some neg. divergence or some weakness.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • wex

    Is that a picture of you when you were in Nursing School?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Well I gave back some of my 130 pips (darn it) by going short EUR too soon. oh well. Gave back 60 pips (ouch) then scalped a few pips back.
    I am still in puts

  • Lordted

    Stone the Crows… Billy Shake me down…. Swipe me

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yup I took profits on my long SPY calls after the retrace blew well past 50% at 10AM. Buying pressure started to back off a bit there. Maybe we go to past 62% all the way to 78% – or maybe we just oscillate up here until FOMC.

    Kemal target 1013 on a retrace from a wave v low of 993, but the overnight low on ES was 986.

    Day job stuff calls now, meanwhile I need to think about what to do post-FOMC…

  • katzo7

    Ohhhhhh God!!!!!

  • katzo7

    Looks Mooo ish to me.

  • Squidman

    Remember the cycle is different, countertrend at asian monkey hour with persons at your back is safer.

  • grednfer

    Don't give up…..it pretty much follows the S&P (right now).

    So short it around 1010……

    I'm looking for 1.425……..6E rules…..better ROI than ES.

  • ropey

    action is still bullish, expecting a pop to the highs of the other day, they have a gap to fill on SPX at 1010 or so – it's small. They're currently backtesting the channel they broke down from the other day..

  • Keirsten

    I meant to thank you for that comment BMB. 😉 I see no reason for anyone here to have to walk on eggshells- and I'd really hate to think the newbies in particular would be afraid to ask questions or just chat.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    no problem K. much is gained from reading your posts.