Tuesday Road Map

As it’s a pretty quiet World-Cup-Quarters-Pre-Fourth-of-July week I’ll keep this one quick and simple. Before we get to the chart here’s a latest clip from Karl ‘No Slave To Fashion’ Denninger:

Geezzzz – makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside….
[amprotect=nonmember] Updated wave count and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,9,5,2]

We painted a little triangle today which suggested that we resolve to the downside. However, since it’s summer and there was little participation I don’t want to give the pattern too much meaning. To me it simply felt like range bound trading and whatever it is could be part of a more complex sideways Minor 2 correction. Frankly, I usually don’t count on Minuette or smaller degree and prefer to be focused on the medium term picture.

NYSE A/D ratio closed at 0.87 today (that’s a slightly bearish D/A of 1.15) – yes, a bit bearish but not heavily so – nothing that would make me strap on my helmet and a parachute. Both scenarios are still in play and we eagerly wait for equities to finally pick a &@$#*& direction. My Spidey sense tells me that the bears should be kicking ass and taking numbers right now, and not seeing an acceleration here, or a quick Minor {ii} spike, tells me that this thing could draaaaaaag out for a good part of the summer, as suggested via some incarnation of Soylent Green. Remember that this scenario does not have to play out as a simple second zigzag – we could get some kind of sideways corrective pattern and there are 11 to pick from. Maybe now may be a good time to swap my Decembers for March – I’ll probably make up my mind tomorrow.
[/amprotect]

Before I run – Tooncez just pointed me toward a chart I posted on Mary 31st:

And when did we turn? On 6/21 😉

Quite frankly, nobody is more surprised about this as yours truly. I really don’t think I’m that good – probably sheer coincidence. And let’s not forget that the fat lady hasn’t sung yet as we have not breached this year’s low. Until that happens it’s possible we keep gyrating around and drive the bears crazy all the way through 8/18. I hope that won’t happen but we can’t have wishful thinking drive our trading.

Of course – IF 1040.78 gets taken out and 6/21 turns out to be the high of Minor 2 then we have a nice template for anticipating the bottom of Minor 3.

Until any of this happens – keep it clean, and stay frosty!

Cheers,

Mole