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Turning Points

Turning Points

by The MoleFebruary 24, 2009

I’m going to be really quick tonight – was not actually planning on posting but when I was starting to count the new waves I felt that my new analysis needed to be shared.

Blue: We completed Minor 3 of Intermediate (5) and are now pushing into Minor 4 which should terminate around 793ish. We must not breach 804.3 as a brach of Minor wave 1 is not permissible EWT – at least not if this is a motive wave. If it is not a motive wave but some complicated W-X-Y, then the entire count changes. There is a problem with this count in that Minor 3 would be shorter than minor 1, which is permissible but only if Minor 5 will be the shortest wave. Thus the lower target for the bottom of Intermediate (5) in this scenario would be the 690 – 700 zone. Not exactly exciting IMO. There is the possibility that (4) might turn into some sideways action – perhaps a triangle – that would extend the target zone for 5 of (5) a bit.

Orange: My favorite scenario. We completed Minute (iii) of Minor 3 of Intermediate (5) and are now in the late stage of some ugly wave (iv) zigzag that should either drop right away or maybe push a bit further but not beyond 793 – ugly because I’m not sure I see a clean zigzag there. From there we continue into (v), breach the November 21 lows and complete Minor 3 of (5). This will be followed by a retest of the November lows and the final descend into the target zone of 650.

Tomorrow will be key in determining where we are and also what the downside potential for this will be. Depending on the open be ready to cut your long positions. If we gap higher then there is a good chance that we are already in Minor 4 – if we hang around and then start dropping or drop right away then we are completing Minor 3.

There’s three ways to play this: If you think we are in 4 then start loading up on puts around the fib zone I highlighted (790). Or you can start right away and keep adding as we rally. Finally, if you are convinced that we are completing Minor 3 then you can either load up here or wait for the top of Minor 4, which I expect to be a retest of the November 21 lows.

That’s all I got for tonight – short and sweet! See you on the other side – happy hunting.


UPDATE 11:29pm EST: Okay, I’m reading through the comment stream and most of what I’m seeing is complete trash. A lot of talk and no substance – political mud slinging (ugh), empty comments, dumb jokes, etc. Now you guys know I can shoot the shit as well as any of us, but this is EvilSpeculator and I have reached my platitude limit. When I get up tomorrow morning I want to see the following:

  • Symbols
  • Charts
  • Ideas on how to profit!
  • Originality

Now you guys can either go off pouting or you can get your act together and participate. Everyone else gets kicked into the hole Sparta style. We are in the last vestiges of Primary 1 – after that we are facing a long drawn out and possibly sideways Primary 2, which will last months. It won’t be fun to trade and if you hate whipsaw days you better bring a helmet.

Now watch my bear dance:

About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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