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Upside Targets
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Upside Targets

by The MoleAugust 25, 2010

Fast and brutal reversals (on little volume or participation) are expected during meaningful drops to the downside – get used to it – it’ll only get worse on the way down. Before you guys all reach for the eject button let’s look at some target ranges for the current bust higher:

Boy, whoever hit that one is a lousy shot – especially with such a small caliber. My trusted CZ P01 (9mm) clears the center at 50 feet – amazing semi-auto. Any rats resident in L.A. up for a shooting match? 😉

We painted another clean motive to the downside and are right now halting after at a 38.3% fib retracement. Could go higher tomorrow – I like the 1060 cluster but we may just close that gap and push into 1067. However, if we push above 1081.58 then the wave count changes considerably. Thus this is the level where I would recommend to start scaling getting hedged a little on your long term positions.

That’s pretty much it for now – there’s more but I wanted to get this posted during the session.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Long_John_Silver

    Mole – I jumped off my shorts when we hit 1050 .. anticipating your comments above, greatly appreciated – ljs

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Thank Mole. 🙂

  • Tooncez

    I get sick looking at this divergence: http://screencast.com/t/OTVjODYyOW

  • DudePlunger

    I did that yesterday taking 1052 profits after the bounce we had from 1044. Typically, on powerful trend days, you want to see a market sell-off quickly after the 10AM economic release, and keep selling off throughout the day, with no significant bounce back, only a possible retracement that is <7pts. But that retracement should not happen till lunch time.

    It's late August. We've had a nice bearish month, and I think we could see some fireworks in September and October, but the low volume has really prevented us from breaking out of this 11 month trading range.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for helping me to stay Frosty Mole.

    The way I looked at it was I was dammed if I do and dammed if I don't. So I shorted some heavy put premium against my a big part of my position today. The reason I did was that if I wait until 1067 or 1077, the VIX will turn to shit along with the premium of most of the Strikes that I wanted to Short.

    OTOH if we Gap down tomorrow and it looks like Bears are back in control then I'll have to buy some premium back at a loss.

    In any event, I still have 16 Unencumbered Put Contracts.

    So we'll see what happens. 🙂

  • Bob the Horse

    Good work. Lot of good work being done on this site recently I notice – life is so much easier when people focus on banking coin instead of looking for P3.

  • jigdaddy

    anybody else think we might have a had a Short term bottom today?

  • slim55za

    Mole – assuming your sites are centered, you are hitting low consistently. Shoot 6-8 and then clear gun and do a few dry fires right after, I would bet heavily that you will see your front site dip from anticipating recoil. Dry fire practice helps this a lot and allows you to maintain your sight picture and get the surprise break rather than anticipating.

    Note that I say this because I have the same issue (everyone does to some degree, good shooting is simply overcoming it) not because I'm any kind of authority so I'll just relate the info I have been given. Most people shoot low and left that suffer from this but I tend to get what you do which is more centered but consistently low when I anticipate even a few right similar to your own and that's just hand/trigger control. The nice thing is that you can do dry fire practice at home along with draw practice and really improve the hell out of your shooting. A well known instructor has seen a number of very poor shooters come to class, go back and practice 5 minutes a day, doing 4 point draw and dry fire reps, show back up after 3-4 months without visiting the range once and have become very good and completely different shooters. Police Academy studies also verify, those with 90% dry fire and 10% live did far better than 100% live and were the top group. Note that just slightly below the 90% dry fire was the 100% dry fire – much further down was live fire. The drill he gave me was 15 reps of getting the combat grip from fighting stance; 15 reps of stance to combat grip to draw/retention position; 15 reps stance/grip/retention/two hand grip; 15 reps stance/grip/retention/two hand grip/extension and with sights on target take slack from trigger; 15 reps stance/grip/retention/two hand grip/extension/take slack from trigger/fire with surprise break maintaining sight picture. Good fundamentals and makes it second nature – note that you obviously clear the gun and just remove the magazine so you can move fast and rerack between reps and not mess with the slide lock.

    Love the site. Not sure if that was any help to you but figured it couldn't hurt and might be a bit of payment for your effort here. I'm East Coast but if headed to LA I'll look you up.

  • WTFed

    Mole-
    Where do you shoot?

  • Brishort

    Thanks Mole. Lot of precious stuff from you today.
    ATR 14 is clearly my new P&F friend, and on top of 60 min P&F.
    And your yellow lines above are my sole focus for determining any required counteraction on my current positions.

    P&F update: Since non-stockcharts subscribers can only see the daily, I will refrain from posting too many 60 min P&F.
    $ rut daily: low pole reversal (does not mean a bull trend, just that it is in more than just a usual 3 boxes retracement and may extend further short term)
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart
    $rut 60 min: above short term downtrending line
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart
    $spx 60 min: this will be key, as long as remains below red downtrendline and below the BB.
    Current BB TA hypothesis: as long as below BB, trend remains confirmed.
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart
    $spx on the daily: no signal upward, downtrend still valid.
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart

    Extra SPX note: ouf! SPX tagged the middle of the 60 min normal chart bb without exceeding it.

    Best Mole advice: can't overthink this YET. I found myself in the exact same shoes as BobbyLow for its options position. I ended up trying to short TZA as a hedge, but found out too late it is on a difficult to borrow list at brokers currently….. Therefore no hedge to my aggressive spread for the moment. Will see what tomorrow brings, especially if Mole lines are touched.

  • DarthTrader

    Shootin Match?

    WE usin targets or each other?

  • Bob the Horse

    Katzo

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How about Ned 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My dirty little secret.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh, this is not my target, mate – it's just a grab from online.

    Not to boast I am actually quite an excellent shot. Not sure why – started last year and everyone at the range was scratching their head why I was shooting the centers out with a bad loner. I usually get 2 inch clusters at 50 feet away with my 9mm. Now this is a competition weapon or anything – just a regular CZ P01 with a trigger job (the default trigger is horrible as the Czech use it with gloves on). I actually used to pull a bit too high but have recently overcome that.

    I'll probably practice for another year or so and then get my self a competition pistol. If you have good suggestions I'm all ears but I really do love my CZ which to my shame I clean every Sunday – LOL 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Unfortunately voting on it will not bring about further clarification – only price can do that for us.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes, it's a tough call Brishort.

    What pushed me into getting hedged again today was the thought of watching the VIX potentially shrinking along with Vega and the Value of my positions.

    Later on, as the SPX potentially goes higher, my Long Put Options would have a reduced value. Then I'd have to think about shorting Puts against them at a lower premium. This would accomplish a double screwing because if the market goes down from that point, my short puts would become much more expensive to cover because the VIX/Vega and Delta are back up and yep – get screwed again. Been there done that 🙂

    BTW, I only hedged Decembers and left March and June unencumbered.

  • BobbyLow

    Thank you. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wanted to comment about the dry fire approach: I know why folks fall prey to that – it's the shock of the loud bang and the recoil, especially with higher caliber pistols. It even gets worse when you have folks with high caliber guns or rifles right next to you in the range.

    I actually have developed a mental technique of counter acting this – instead of being shocked I embrace the impact. I know that sounds almost weird, but this is what I was doing: At the very beginning I noticed that my first few shots were good but then degraded – it seems that your motor functions in your arm anticipate the recoil and actually pull up just when pulling the trigger. Obviously, this is why many folks may cluster too high. Once I realized that what I did was to simply make myself conscious of it and breathe out right before pulling the trigger. At the very end of my breath I shoot and as I'm aware of it I am not anticipating the recoil anymore – I simply accept it and don't fear it anymore.

    I know that sounds a bit weird but every person is different and as such we all have to develop our own remedies to overcome certain instinct responses. I learned similar things studying Aikido for a long time – people seem to tense up right before the hit or when someone grabs them – even when they grab someone else. If you grab someone and intent to exert force as part of your technique then you must stay relaxed and loose. If you tense up it will subconsciously transfer that tension on the other person and your move will most likely fail. I think this very lesson applies to shooting as well – when I'm relaxed and am having fun I can be extremely consistent and accurate.

    Thus far I have not seen many folks who are more accurate on my range – which is why I want to join a competition as to better challenge myself and learn from the pros. But I better practice for a few months as I don't want to embarrass myself 😉

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7BQ7HGHTFRILJESG33KZPLQ6NE pkpkpk

    mole schmole

  • slim55za

    LOL – I figured it was your target. Well, pass my comments on to whoever shot that one. I use 9mm also in pistol with Glock being manufacturer of choice (works for me). I'd still recommend the drill. It's more of a combat or defensive drill as opposed to anything else – generally if you have to pull a gun you're going to be tense as hell so idea is to be conditioned to do everything right and hope you fight half as well as you train (you probably know this from martial arts anyway. You might look at IPSC if practical shooting is your interest. 1911s are king of the target and smooth trigger in defensive caliber so if you really get into it be aware that you may end up there (and all the expense and tweaking that entails).

  • Brishort

    It is worrysome that I nearly understand fully what you are talking about with greeks 😉 I may not be fully proficient but I follow you.

    My aggresive spread is still protecting me for a little move up without pain (bought quite deep ITM, sold OTM front month) so options wise I still feel OK and with firepower to hedge as needed.

    However, it's the market direction that I don't want not to read properly. I want to make sure STU does not pollute my mind with ideas I should not have.

    The bearish signals are holding, my position sizing is adequate for my risk tolerance, and the aggressivity of my spreads is just where I want to be with my current EW count.

    However, I just feel annoyed I may have to manage again a bear squeeze from the market. I know the drill, I just hate the prospect of having to go through another circle of hell of bear squeeze…because I learned about myself that I have no problem managing losing positions on the short size (adjusting spreads, etc taking losses) with ease on the short side, I just can't sleep overnight regardless of my position sizing when I go long the market!!!

    It's like I am stuck and punished for the rest of my life only able to make money on bearish position…. how did I get cursed like this? Reading Prechter for too many years? Regarless of his accuracy, I just love reading Bob and his intellect clearly fascinates me. Maybe that's why.

    And seeing how the Banksters robbed their way out of bankruptcy, I just don't feel comfortable trading along side with them which I still assimilate to the long side. Of course they get short too, so it's a moot point from me, but I believe in the requirement of the reset of the current financial ponzi. So I trade accordingly. Maybe that's one principle too many but I feel like I respect myself more that way.

    Enough for today, good night everybody!

  • ablebonus

    Nice choice in pistols. I get my CZs from Angus Hobdell – he does all the CZ custom work (czcustom dot com) and will remove the firing pin block and get the trigger pull to 2.5/3 lbs. P01 is great but check the SP01 or better yet Angus will convert a 75 SA to DA – you get the more ergonomic frame in the size/weight of the 75 instead of SP01. If you make it to VA in the fall I will take you shooting and hunting.

  • trabuco

    I am an instructor…what discipline would you like to shoot? CZ 75….my first combat pistol…one of the best yet most under appreciated brand.

  • OldChicago

    This could be interesting. TOL report postive earning, DHI got an upgrade. All home builders up 3-5% two days in a row with large vol. However, put/call ratio have also risen for the day. Not all of them are at extreme level yet, except for IYR.

  • sloth_bear

    Nice post Mole, right on target,
    for those of you who still trade at these hours there is a very good setup on AUD/JPY,
    I have high confidence in the dotted green line (until it breaks ;-)) had put a stop above:
    http://screencast.com/t/ODgxOGJhY2It

    Good night and good luck!

  • convictscott

    My take on today's price action
    http://www.masterkillers.com/2010/08/25/spx-pri

  • amokta
  • OldChicago

    Interesting analysis. Thank you. The spike at 10:00am (EST) from 1039 is definitely a PPT job. We've got import reports on Thursday & Friday, FEDs meeting at Wyo. this weekend. Is Uncle Sam trying to preamp a crash from further bad news?

    Most sectors gain today, except for XLI. Industrials have been leading the market up. The weakness today seems suspicious. Homies, retails and healthcare lead today.

  • amokta

    This afternoon's rise is part of wave (ii). When complete, wave (iii) of iii (circle) will draw the index to below the July 1-2 lows. stu suggests rise to 1060-1070 possible. they dont this is a significant rally leg. you all know the track record of STU!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure about the discipline yet – all I've done so far is range shooting on targets. I would be interested in action pistol or regular pistol matches. But I have have not trained for either and the entire NRA and SSUSA regime is too confusing for me – I don't know where to start:

    http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/nra/ssusa_20100

    CZ75B – great pistol and the P-01 is the next generation of that one. I got the Tactical and after some trigger work it's the best pistol I've ever had in my hand.

    BTW, I'm in CA – if you're local I'd like to chat. Or maybe you can give me a few tips how to get started – admin at evilspeculator dot com.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Meh – hobbies are always a monkey sink – no problem with that. And living in L.A. I can assure you that money spent on guns & ammo is a good investment 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, I actually had my combat trigger and decoker hammer done there. They screwed it up the first time and I had to send it in again but it's a dream now – I strongly recommend it.

    Funny they call it a combat trigger as the original P-01 has a pretty gritty trigger by design. I chatted with Angus and he told me that CZ told him that it's because of the gloves that military users usually wear over there.

  • Consistently.Incredulous

    Bring that 9 to VA -I have an MDX-9 says I win a beer.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    VA in the fall – that sounds like a lot of fun. I never shot a rifle before though – may have to practice before.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are on – although I think you meant XDM-9, right? 😉

    BTW, did you check out the new XDM-45 ACP? Not everyone likes carbon frames but this one looks extremely interesting. Would love to get my hands on that – unfortunately none of the fucking ranges here have it.

  • derekste

    I used to own & shoot 2 H&K .45 USPs (one full size, the other a compact), among a few other long guns.

    Some vids here: http://www.YouTube.com/derekste

  • trabuco

    Sorry…I train law enforcement and civilians abroad…your best bet is to buy a Glock and join the GSSF…lot's of fun shoots and very well organized…to boot if you do well you can win Glocks as prizes…

    http://gssfonline.com/

    There are truly only 2 handguns (out of the box) that I would stake my life on…the Glock 17 and the Sig 226. In shotguns it would be the Remington 870P. I am not qualified to discuss rifles.
    Best to you.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    I've been considering the charts and we could run as high as 1075 if we go straight up tomorrow, but I doubt that.

    Looking at the SPX 15min chart tonight, it seems to be that we have a classical short term reversal setup with IHS here. See what you think:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    If so I'm expecting a reversal below 1050 SPX to make the RS, some chop during the day, and then a move up late Thursday towards a target in the 1070 SPX area to be hit late Thursday or Friday morning.

    SPX currently trading about a point below SPX of course.

  • DudePlunger

    I unsubscribed from STU, FF, and EWT earlier this year. They get very repetitive after being a member for 6months to a year.

  • chronographics

    🙂

  • ablebonus

    Don't worry we are stockpiled with everything imaginable and plenty of elbow room.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Dabama here….OK lets figure out how to save America.

    Chorus of PPT actors—Sure what you got in mind boss?

    Well I am thinking that drawing a line in the sand worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan, that we draw a line on the SPX and defend it.

    PTT hehe, we know hwo to defend it…we just make the hush hush call to Goldman, Morgan, and those newish guys, and they crank the futures…we just have to give them free money, that they can pump with, and they can also lend that money back to us to Support T-bills also. High five guys!!! We save the country, the market, and our debt all in one shot!!!!!

    Dabama: OK good, so where should we draw that line….

    PPT–deep thought…………hey how about 1040, you know, like the tax form….yeah yeah,,,,,<round of high fives>

    Dabama: great and easy to remember, OK code word for da pump boyz is 1040 taxes. Just call them and say hey did you file your 1040 tax form yet….it's perfect

    High fives, high fives.

    Charts at
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/dabama-

  • Brishort

    Well, I redid all my squiggle EW counts since the 1129 without looking at STU because I wanted to make sure of my counts due to my earlier worries today. I read STU afterwards. Surprise, my squiggle count crosschecked since August was identical to what Hochberg had on the 60 min DOW chart STU tonight.

    Although I have grievances against STU, when they do a good job they also deserve to be congratulated. I found this STU excellent, well balanced, well documented and convincingly filled with facts rather than prognostics. I can clearly say I sincerely believe Hochberg did an excellent job on the 60 DOW count. That's what I see as the only scenario and I don't have an alternative count to the fact that we are in (iii).

    ii is in progress but this leads me to only one conclusion: there is nothing to chase up right now and the only trade for me is to look for short entry points. iii of (iii) is approaching and there is no reason to become daredevil on a minuscule scalp when the lottery ticket win odds have never been better to catch a iii of (iii).

    CONCLUSION:

    I feel reassured about my count tonight and do not see any technical reason anywhere to fear the threat of a C wave exceeding 1129, as I got worried earlier today.
    The STU 5 down 3 up analogy since August 1st crosschecks everything I see perfectly. It is therefore credible and I no longer question the squiggle current count. From a trader's perspective, my bed is made and my trading accounts will continue aggressively bearish accordingly.
    I am not believing I can tell the market what to do, but I also believe in TA chartist instinct based on empirical experience and well done counts and squiggles. In higher degree waves 2 and 4, they can always get messy and unreliable but we are in a 3 down. I intend to be positioned aggressively, and 15 years of TA, nearly the entire book of rookie trader mistakes checked to empirically (read painfully) learn, and a CMT degree are all I can rely on. This time is the right time to be short, and the ii in progress will end sooner than later and, most likely, will not easily allow many latecomers on the bus once it launches.

    I am in the bus and will ride the current bumps up. As of tonight, I do not believe Mole highest yellow lines above will be breached up. All the rest of my indicators that are slower are all pointing down so I will thrust them as well.

  • docinky

    Thoughts on a Glock C-22?

  • Consistently.Incredulous

    Sorry – the Sailor Jerry is talking tonight. Yes – love it – adjustable grip is sweet, but I had to get used to the 6:00 hold.

  • convictscott

    Brishort, I'm with you. In elliot wave terms I cannot see a viable alternative to the current count that makes any sense.

    I have a question for wave gurus thats beyond my wave knowledge (I still trade exclusively off candlestick patterns, I use wave count to pinpoint good times to start stalking a trade, and good times to stay out of the market during a wave 4)

    The only problem I have with the current situation is the decreasing breadth to the downside, painting a gothic church fractal. My question is…. should breadth be increasing right out of the gate for a wave 3 of 3 of primary 3, or is this something which should take 1-2 months to get where its going so no need to be painting extreme dec/adv readings now?

    Dont get me wrong, its heading in the right direction, just for a once in 200 year plummet, its kind of beige.

  • slim55za

    Mole for what it's worth I second the GSSF recommendation – you being a CZ guy I thought I'd leave it out as I've conditioned myself to avoid potential brand controversy as much as possible. GSSF membership is around $35, you get access to all the matches, armorers at the matches if needed, you can take an armorer's course, and you get 1 Glock at law enforcement cost per year (pays for your membership at even the lowest cost price match).

    Trabuco – while I consider myself passingly competent at best, I'm also a Glock (all 9mm) and 870 fan. Will probably pick up an AR/Colt 6920 later in the year to round it out. Been meaning to get one forever but kids and economy keep me a bit leaner. Plus I've enjoyed spending the extra I have on training classes to improve and have a 'fun weekend'.

    Great to see others with shared interests (or in trabuco's case profession) on the board.

  • Brishort

    To Long John Silver notably and any other interest in the posts about scribd:

    If you know turtles story, you probably won't learn much from what I am posting here, but as I promised LJS to answer, here it goes:

    1) 1st document I ever stumbled upon about the turtles. Luckily, it was a valuable read, and since I didn't know about the turtles before, I avoided the scam part you find in google about the turtles, books by not original turtles. etc. It was the first eye opener I ever had in the value of ATR in relation to position sizing.

    this is the best 38 pages primer for anybody doing trading and not understanding the importance of position sizing above all to protect the trader from himself.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/23501270/Turtle-Rules

    Typing “Curtis Faith” in brackets will also bring some articles, including a 25 pages sample of his book “way of the turtle”. A nice start to know if you will appreciate the read of the entire book or not.

    I have found that whatever concept of TA I type into Scribd, the depth is impressive and the quality is usually not too far beneath the surface. Doesn't guarantee success on all subjects, but it is way above average to simply doing a Google o the same.
    Docstoc to me has a lot less depth and quality, but always a good second alternatice

    For those interested, a very short scholar study on the validity of the turtle trading system (the rules a no longer adequate for today's environment, but the principles of trading remain gold common sense).
    http://www.docstoc.com/docs/19423414/Model-Vali….

    Sometimes you will find unexpected gems like high quality scans of books. Ex: Jesse Livermore how to trade in stocks:
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/23503558/Jesse-Liverm
    or the 438 pages of
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/26449938/Reminiscence

    You want to look up other concepts, just throwing names here, “leveraged etf”, “systematic trading”, “rule based trading”, “options trading system”, for each of these (brackets for full expression required) you will find at least one document you will want to read. You may stumble across copies of “Futures and options trader” which are often uploaded by users, but with strange titles. Regardless of the issue of FOT, there is always a nice article you will want to read in it.

    The possibilities are only limited by your imagination… to access a small portion of the global knowledge accumulated and put in writing in real and structured documents. Much better than short term “flavor of the day” calorie-less intellectual food so many web based pundits spit out everyday now. They try to lead you to believe they are giving substantive information, when in fact they are showing you a fish (which you don't know it is fresh and good or just rotten) but never train you mind to know how to go fishing and feed yourself for a lifetime.

    On these words, sleep in calling me, happy reading!!!!!!!!!!!!!, and may you fill your mind with the additional beauty of real ideas and analysis…. just like in the good old days when learning was done by opening long books of theory in a library and working hard to assimilate the concepts.

    As people more and more forget the importance of reading structured analyses and reflections they forget or loose the ability to stimulate their brain and continue the constant magic of learning and conditioning the limitless machine that is a human brain.

    In doing so, they forget how to structure their brains reflexes in scientific methods of structured deduction leading to empirical, verifiable and repeatable successful mindset of deduction to reach the right decisions making processes.

    Let's hope the market will force us to sidestep letting our brains go numb. It is surely keeping me alert!
    The media are already trying to do mass hypnosis of crap. As P3 reveals itself, I expect more and more mass media desperation to try to find a quick intellectual fix to explain all the sorrow left by P3. We all know the answer won't be that short, that quick or that easy to explain….

    In relation to Mole now introducing Socrates in his posts, I know in the future, I will have to take my kids and ask them to take a seat and listen…. dad has a long story to tell you about what happened in our society since 2010, how it happened and why it could not be prevented due to the intrinsic human behavior that was then prevalent in the upper political classes of the society……..

  • Tooncez

    I figured out how to get TOS to fill in the missing data from earlier this week for my version of the GCT. I concur that it is bullish.
    http://screencast.com/t/MDI0NjcxZDQt

    If '08 is any guide to A/D activity, we needed to get some monster daily movement before a/d really woke up.
    http://screencast.com/t/MjliODMxY2
    Here's a zoomed in chart without the obscuring high spike:
    http://screencast.com/t/YzUzNjYxZ
    For reference, the flash crash got something like -5 or -6-ish.

    But, I can't draw my own waves. I do have a fancy blue rectangular coaster though.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have Curtis' book and my favorite part is his description of the cognitive biases:

    Loss Aversion
    Sunk Cost Effect
    Disposition Effect (lock gain early – let losers ride)
    Outcome Bias
    Anchoring
    Bandwagon Effect
    Small Numbers

    On the road to becoming a good trader each of those biases needs to be overcome.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Careful you boys – seems you are way too comfortable with your position. It's good to always be paranoid – just don't make a move until your paranoia has been confirmed by a technical level 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Careful you boys – seems you are way too comfortable with your position. It's good to always be paranoid – just don't make a move until your paranoia has been confirmed by a technical level 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Whatever feels comfortable. In the end guns are just the tools – it's the marksman that puts the bullet where it needs to go. It's easy to get caught up in the toys but I always try to remember that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Whatever feels comfortable. In the end guns are just the tools – it's the marksman that puts the bullet where it needs to go. It's easy to get caught up in the toys but I always try to remember that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bunch a rednecks – LOL – love it 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bunch a rednecks – LOL – love it 😉

  • convictscott

    Tnx Mole, I'm feeling the faint stirrings of expectation bias 😉 Stops are better than breakeven so worse comes to worse its not the end of the world.

  • Bob the Horse

    AAII Bull down at 20 – virtually Mar 09 levels.

  • sloth_bear

    Ouch!

  • sloth_bear

    You speak about the survey on the homepage of http://www.aaii.com/ ?
    I just had a look on this investorsintelligence where there are a lot more bulls ready to be slaughtered:
    http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/mhas0804

    and here:
    http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sen

  • Bob the Horse

    That second link says the charts are posted Thurs night whereas the AAII is updated as of this morning. So you may see a similar effect by tomorrow. All this stuff is only sometimes relevant but very often when you get these big spikes in Bull/Bear spread on the AAII it marks a s-t reversal.

  • convictscott

    Neat 🙂 What do you use as a trigger to get into the trade?

  • amokta

    My corporate filter (tru-view) is blocking access to 'upside target' post classfiying it as 'weapons' site. I am having to work around this by accessing previous post, then replying to comments via 'expand community box' and choosing someone to reply to.
    -anyway, futures holding steady !

  • gsavli

    lol, what country do you live in 🙂

  • legobear

    Haha, that's actually quite funny. Is it the headline or the image, or both? It doesn't mind when Mole posts those hot sexy girls then?

  • sloth_bear

    You may change your avatar or he would not be able to answer you 😉

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock7

    2 other DOW 30’s BA,UTX—If there’s a a price channel change there, I can’t see it.
    go long at their last lows, looks to be worth trying.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    My playbook said this:

    1. If gap down, then it gets bought at 44 level and we top out today at around 61-62 to gap down tomorrow to 23 area and end LOD to get a Mutual Fund monday rally going into end-of-month

    2. If gap up, then it gets sold to 51 area and gets bought and we top out near EOD at 61-62 and rest of the script is same

    3. If gap up, then we run up to 70 area and end HOD EOD and remaining script remains same.

    Of course, we have to see how the close looks to confirm big gap down tomorrow.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The UE claims data has assured that there will be no gap down. Also it seems quite unlikely that we sell off to 44 area. So, very likely scenario is to sell off to 52-53 area (which was the last regular hour swing-low) and then gradual ramp into close to take out opening 30m highs …

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Way too many people looking for a rally. I think we need one more shakeout of the bulls before we get the true rally

  • krapzo7

    I didn't really understand you last night – your scenario was too complex. In my view, it's simple – this month has been a victory for the bears but it was time to hit the showers a couple of days ago. Anyone who is still on the field trying to moonwalk into the endzone runs the risk of a fumble.

  • Brishort

    Good day all,

    Today is about not getting too comfortable and remaining paranoid (ahem… thank Mole!)

    Approach:

    i) Downtrend remains EW squiggle valid… let's look if anything exceeds normal retracement levels and breaches something.
    ii) Retracement levels were given by Mole, I will not second guess this.
    iii) P&F will be too slow for any signficance until way above 1070, whereby Mole points are currently under, so no P&F today.

    Conclusion, all imy indicators will be too slow to catch anything indicating a blast-off if Curly was more than just a bounce point and instead a more significant bottom.

    All I have left in my toolbox are my squiggles count intraday.

    Will advise if I see anything to contradict the ii up in a (iii) down unique EW scenario I have with no current alternate.

    Good luck to all!

    P.S. will post less today, will be very busy at work.

  • OldChicago

    If we top at first 15min, then wave B might be in store. Otherwise, there'll be more moon shot. QE3 is in circulation. Europe market is looking for a rally after a week loss.

    BTW. FED is buying treasury today. That has been positive for TLT which may put a little break on equity. Gold retreated. Watching XHB, RTH & XLF to see if bullishness continues.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Man… for a minute I thought you were katzo.. then I remembered that Mole had booted him out.. Then I noticed carefully, you are “krapzo” 🙂

    In a big IT down move, the ST up move rarely starts intra-day. It starts from EOD LOD and bulls are made to chase the next day and late bears are punished.

  • DarthTrader

    One week from tonight the University of South Carolina
    Led by Steve Spurrier, Mr Darth Visor himself
    Will Take Univ Southern Miss
    Go Cocks !

  • amokta

    with great difficulty, i am mangaing to keep an eye on thing!

    lets hope it turns out to be an inside-out, upside down reversal day to the downside

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Ok so step 1 accomplished – dip to 53.xx area.. next step is melt-up all day to close near HOD in 61-62 area..

  • Brishort

    Mini update:

    In the end have to review Mole levels to be consistent with my current count:

    If (i) is from 1100.14 to 1039.83:

    38.6% retracement = 1062.87
    50% = 1069.99
    61.8% = 1077.11

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Didn't I tell you months ago to use a SOCKS proxy?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Anyone notice the series of overlapping waves on the ES? Very interesting – someone is working hard here but it doesn't seem to have the intended effect ….

  • sloth_bear

    Time for him to go back to bed or he will ruin my day

  • amokta

    Viewing this with great difficulty. Will look up SOCKS proxy on google

    anyway, regards ES, no clear victor just yet!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Each successive dip is higher by a point or two … lovely… soon (after 11:30am ET) I expect this to flatten out into a narrow range above 59.5.

    Tomorrow or Monday bulls will get taken to the cleaners IMO.

    FYI AAPL 240 weekly puts expiring tomorrow are 40c.

  • gsavli

    this market is total nonsense.

    looks like only robots left trading today.

  • omelette
  • Darkthirty

    Got my finger on the trigger

  • Tronacate

    “All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed… and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.” – President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Say what?

  • bluprint

    Yeah, feels like we're going nowhere fast.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dig a deep hole in your yard. Put valuables inside. Fill hole. Buy Schaeferhund with bad attitude and sharp teeth. Put dog house on top of filled hole. Problem solved.

  • amokta

    At the moment i can only podt by selecting someone to reply to: Anyway, using $GMCR as a leading indicator on longer time frame, it leads the main indices. Right now it is falling. Mind you price of coffee fallen (but surely this help raise their pps, as they would not drop cost of end-product by any big amount?)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    But non participation here tells me a lot about the state of the mind of the bears. Almost nobody caught the leg down and nobody is buying the rips either.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    For the tenth time: SOCKS proxy!

  • Tronacate

    I have a secret spot……no deposit box…….GREAT idea though
    My dogs would bounce around and lead them to the spot……way too friendly

  • bluprint

    If his network is that locked down, a proxy may not work. I have a friend who works somewhere you can't even https privately anymore. They enforce all that traffic to go through a corporate controlled ssl proxy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's why I said German Shephard.

  • bluprint

    Better idea would probably be to put a chicken coup on top of it…no one will WANT to go near there.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If he can ssh to an outside server it will work.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have a chicken coup actually.

  • sloth_bear
  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    That right there was bear trap IMO – they are going to tire the bears out by EOD to convince them that there is no point shorting any time soon.. As always, the bear bus will leave empty tonight or sunday night.. Destination is 1023es.. Of course I may look a big fool tomorrow when ES tags 107x tomorrow on GDP data 🙂

  • DarthTrader

    Just change “I.R.S. with “Homeland Security” and you'll have the present day. Though the delay may be much longer because in the 30's our currency was back by gold Now it is not

  • DarthTrader

    Don't forget to scatter nails, brass screw etc around yard before laying sod Distracts/Frustrates the metal detectors

  • Tronacate

    Now that's thinking…….nice

  • Tronacate

    so true

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    WOW what just happened ?

  • Tronacate

    See where the FED is scrambling to get a stay on the order to disclose bailout recipients and amounts?

  • Long_John_Silver

    Thanks Brishort – this gives me a lot to start with – I've read the Curtis Faith book but this is a deep resource – greatly appreciater your suggestions and thoughts – cheers, LJS

  • Tronacate

    BOTS are taking fed pump attempts

  • Tronacate

    Wish my wife moved up and down as much as this tape

  • Long_John_Silver

    Tempted, but …

  • amokta

    I work on a higly sensitive nuclear submarine, so i wont fiddle with internet settings etc, it might trigger WW3! In future posts, please all refrain from mentioning, guns, calibre, targets, shooting, etc 🙂

  • DarthTrader

    I thought you worked in a Brit Phone Booth

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did you mention the old SSH?

  • Tronacate

    Maxwell Smart

  • Bob the Horse

    She does, just not with you. 🙂

  • Tronacate

    Tsar Bomba comrade

  • bluprint

    With chickens? They allow that sort of thing in the big city?

  • Tronacate

    Always a smart-ass…..uh….horse……

  • bluprint

    In which case you probably cant ssh out of the network anyway. Better to get an Android and tether a personal laptop (or just use the phone). Unless you are actually deep under water or contained in a Faraday cage…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Everything in the chart says that this is bear trap.. But why bottom out at around 11:30am ET … Lets see where we are at 11:45am ET

  • Tronacate
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just a couple of comments

    RSI has been screaming DIVERGENCE and headfake since 14:15 yesterday

    the bad news is … we wasted valuable bear time on this one

    meanwhile i still see no reason why we should bounce (significantly) before 1015

  • gsavli

    i thought they were robust beasts – nuclear subs.

  • 99er

    Chart: SPX
    Another day, another Gartley.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/NmU3MDQwM

  • Tronacate

    Nice chart…..and good spot

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, for the first time in a very long while, I actually feel reasonably comfortable about my Trading Account and have just about the right amount of “paranoia” thrown in as Mole would say.

    By shorting some puts yesterday, I was able to get my Negative Delta down to a decent “sleeping level” as Jesse would say.

    So for now, I'm just waiting for the market to Shit or Get off the Pot as I would say.

    Of course for the time being, the market is saying that it chooses to sit and read a magazine instead. 🙂

  • gsavli

    can't beat being independent from power sources and land. amokta will be my skipper:

    http://www.google.si/imgres?imgurl=http://www.n

  • amokta

    Ok, enough on this 🙂
    Focusing on market – ES showing weakness, also USDGBP, also $GMCR

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Ok so the spike down was driven by some news… Kansas city fed report.. Very likely it gets faded soon….

  • ricebowl

    Interesting observations:
    1) ^VIX reversed at 50-DMA today.
    2) ^VIX fractal in play points to a top either today or tomorrow.
    3) SPX 7-SMA is at 1067 and falling — the top isn't in yet, but it's not far away
    4) 38.2% retracement is approx. 1074
    5) 26.3% retracement is approx. 1064 — bingo! We got really close this morning, but we need a final C wave up to stab the target.

    Have a great day trading.

  • Tronacate

    Would be nice to have your own personal attack submarine…….great toy for whale wars.

  • Tronacate

    You never know when it is coming………but it is gonna come…….today, tomorrow, next week……don't be sitting on the bus stop bench when it pulls away

  • OldChicago

    As Ricebowl had it, there are some interesting obs.:

    – Financial rallied, but GS stalled n didn't participate the early rallied. This seems odd as BKX also much higher.
    – Retailer did not follow through today.
    – XHB holding strong, but the major home builders gave back avg. half of yesterday's gain so far.
    – ISEE # very bullish out of the gate, at 8/11 high. High reading 2 days in a row, without price moving higher. This is Hmmm???
    – WSJ money flows didn't register extra ordinary gains so far.
    – Gold is neutral but bond rocks. May be the da boys are buying treasuries instead.

    I think this might rhythm with a top near by. Let see how we close.

  • OldChicago

    My first laugh since 1120!

  • sloth_bear

    Here is a potential bearish channel on spx:
    http://screencast.com/t/MmYxOWFiN2I
    We should accelerate soon…

    I'm short using the upper band as a stop…

  • jigdaddy

    mole, working to prevent or working to cause?

  • Reeves5333

    I realize I only seem to post here when the ISEE is up and I apologize for that Mole, but I am seeing some steady ISEE index numbers today (around 250). The indicators are really setting up for some nice downward momentum.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – I live in a wild place.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    OUCH!

    Troncate – you're going to take this laying down? Oh, wait, that's your….

    I'M KIDDING!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Both. Just the former being a slide and the latter being a ramp.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Apology not accepted. As punishment you get to clean out my chicken coup.

  • Tronacate

    Go fuck yourselves……like I have to 🙂

  • Brishort

    Mole, I didn't know you commented like that on the zero, I love it!

    Re: squiggles: I see nothing impulsive, either up or down. So no man's land yet for any short term guidance, many squiggle counts still opened since 1039.

  • ricebowl

    Is that a bearish triangle on SPX?

  • Tronacate

    I would like to be on one of those whale wars ship……. .50 cal barrett would solve the whaling issue:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZYw1hkbmNU&feature

  • finansreven

    Back in long SPX 1052.6.

  • 99er
  • sloth_bear

    Bearish channel update (SPX):
    http://screencast.com/t/YTA4NjNjN

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I only do it when I see something interesting. It's also the best way to learn interpreting various signals. The tutorial is something that only teaches the basics. It's not brain surgery but many subs are noobs and have only a rough understanding of divergences, VWAP, etc..

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/6NFOSGRXKB4LMGOAXV3ZY6IWZA Grainman

    I am calling buy it right here for EOD. Copper move up and crude too.

  • Nightwind

    Copper looks to me like a wave 5 of C

  • bluprint

    I drew the main trendline on Tues before the third touch. I'm guessing this wedge-like thing takes the rest of the day to play out. Then we see a break maybe tomorrow or EOD today.

    http://s798.photobucket.com/albums/yy261/blupri

  • Brishort

    TA on triangles since 11h:
    decending tops, flat bottom = bearish picture.

    Careful with longs here.

  • Brishort

    FWIW, from squiggle point of view, we are in a downtrend.

    http://thepatternsite.com/EWTriangleDescending….

  • DarthTrader

    MeatLoaf “Paradise by the Dashboard Light”

    Stop right there . . . 1051

    Before you go any further do ya . . .

  • DarthTrader

    What is VWAP I've read definitions but not sure how it is used here?

  • bluprint

    I'm not confident we have a flat lower line. I'm favoring viewing this as an uptrend from 1037 with us being in a falling wedge right now (descending top and bottom line), which is likely to break upward.

  • DudePlunger

    Ok, ok, ok, I'm seeing something very important on the charts and I have a sell order in at 1049 with a stop at 1062 if filled. Here's why.

    Let's take a look at May 17th. It was a Monday, a big time hammer day, a day the bulls could really build on. Unfortunately for them, they broke the high and then closed on the lows on the 18th. This was highly bearish, and 1100 became the only thing standing between the bears and big time down day. They broke 1100 on May 19th, and then went 49handles down on May 20th in one of the most bearish days of the year.

    Now we look at this week. We painted a double top at 1100 after that 35handle down day on 8/11. Since, we've been stair stepping our way down, slowly but surely, below 1070. Today, we inevitably came back to play around with Tuesday's gap, and have pretty much closed it (just 4pts are left open.) But this is it boys and girls, if the bulls can't save this thing today, yesterday's low is the only thing standing between the bears and a test of 1000. Unless we get a massive big time pop on GDP, I see 1000 tomorrow.

    The pivot at 1050 has been holding us all day. We've been testing it repeatedly, hitting it for the last 4 hours. Support can only hold so many times on so many hits.

  • Brishort

    I am just one vote in an ocean of opinions!

    I am currently cumulating:
    a) 38.2 retracement of (ii) potentially completed this morning
    b) we could be in b of an abc to match your scenario, but if the assessment is wrong, the flip side is wer are in the early stages of a 1-2 of (iii).

    I currently favor the latter for the moment but understand as well we need to consider Mole comment on the zero.

    Was just trying to warn this is not an inflection point to go long, risk/reward too high in my opinion

  • bluprint

    “I am just one vote in an ocean of opinions!”

    Same here. Despite my comment, I'm balls-deep short.

  • ds2

    Still holding strong. I'd feel better if 1048.75 SPX were taken out. It's the 61.8% line from yesterdays low to today's high.

  • amokta

    ES / SPX dipping,now will it hold

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    All minimum conditions are met for a reversal (going up)

  • Tronacate

    Got my 10k hat on again

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • BobbyLow

    VWAP sitting at strectched lower SD on the 15 and MO MO favoring the Grizzlies at the present time.

    But I'm not expecting a whole heck of a lot today but you never know as Wall Street is waiting for white smoke to come from Jackson Hole. Which is kind of pathetic when you think about it.

    Stay Thirsty and Frosty my friends. 🙂

  • Reeves5333

    Ok boss, 10 hours later and I got it cleaned out! Now to bed….GDP early in the morning! Under 1000 tomorrow! Looking for a “limit down” day… soon!