FWIW I (Volar) don’t trade much in July and August for seasonality reasons.
Sorry I have been gone from ES- just been utterly busy and mostly out of town.
Anyways, I would first like to show you a chart pertaining to “fundamentals.” From ZH to every other blog, Muppets flock to the US news and data to seek the end of the world. None of them even consider that 30% of S&P earning are from abroad, let alone in 5 years more cars have been sold abroad than the US has people. Incomes are growing abroad, and until that changes dont get too hung up on useless data here in the US.
Here is a chart that places things into perspective.
So, when do you think any developed country’s economic data will matter? Cheers.
*Also- if we are really going to default why are rates at 3%- not 40%? Anyone Bueller anyone? Ugh the media is full of morons.
Now for the rats, I have some sentiment data to ponder.
More of Volar’s charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
First the ISEE BTO Call/Put Ratio Rate of Change (ROC)
If we are in a bull market- well then this is nothing to worry about. If we are in a bear market (call it a 30% chance), well short your heart out. * But I do not think we are in a bear market (yet).
And one more ST indicator (RYDEX funds).
First is the raw ratio:
and the ROC:
That being said, when I look at some longer-term data I am quiet bearish bonds (partly bullish stocks).
Clearly too much money in bonds…
Bottom Line: we could have a decent sell off but the LT trend is higher. Remember August has no real edge from a seasonality standpoint, but the Fall in general can be ugly.
Best of luck trading guys,