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VIX Buy Signal Received
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VIX Buy Signal Received

by The MoleOctober 16, 2018

MILLENNIAL TRIGGER WARNING: if you happen to be permabear then please top reading and immediately proceed to your safe space or nearest sensory deprivation chamber. For you are most definitely not going to like this post as it contains unpixeled bullish imagery as well as politically incorrect discourse. For everyone else: Our millimeter wave array in the Atacama desert has received a mysterious signal and expert consensus at this time points toward a VIX Buy Signal.

And here it is in all its glory. The stockcharts magnifier shows it quite nicely but for you skeptics I have another view below. Per your convenience I have plastered the rules right onto the chart, as to avoid inane questions that may raise my already elevated blood pressure.

Now be advised that the resolution of this pattern suggests a bullish market reversal in equities in the course of the following week. So that does not mean we can’t whipsaw around here for a while or perhaps even drop further. And yes, some VIX Buy Signals fail – especially during bear markets. And we don’t know yet if we are in one or if 2018 merely represents a LT correction.

That’s quite a wild chart, ain’t it? The weekly and monthly panels do a pretty good job of showing us the big outliers and at least in weekly terms this week definitely qualifies. Now on the monthly end I must concede that this does not compare to what we went through earlier this year or back in 2015.

But there is a reasonable chance that the bears have shot their load and that we are going to at least see a short term reversal. The implication of that of course is that a breach of the current lows of 2712.25 must hold or all hell breaks loose.

A few more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs. So sign up already or I may have to put you on my Halloween tricks list.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Edgy

    ES still seems too soon for a proper bounce on the Daily’s. At this point it could still be a bear flag.. but I still plan on riding the breakout of that wedge!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Closing sqqq at the open flat to small loss.

  • HD

    but the VIX!?!?

    Globex con job, turn around Tuesday… SPX will open right at same R level and we’ll see what the cash market does.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out at 13.32 on the open for small gain. Some from Friday… Some from yesterday 13.4 area. Back to zzzzz

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Hell is about to freeze over. You got a problem with that?
    πŸ˜‰
    [Showlow sunrise snowjob]
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpokyabVAAMDFmC.jpg:large

    meanwhile, I welcome Taco Tuesday Turnarounds!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Here’s how GG views this week.

    the grey (gray?) area, is ‘no play’, unless you’re a day trader scoundrel!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/90f02a4ed33785f7fe05030c009afda66a2ec4953ced8b4383d8d1519116a369.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    break out the Kragle, someone’s going to glue this market back together..

    https://johnthetoyshopguy.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/lord-business-and-the-kragle.jpg

  • bankwalker

    long /RTY @ 1567.10

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    When falling through the ice, the first thing to do, is don’t panic. (yeah right)
    Should be some resistance at the circle.

    IMHO – that’s where scared sh!tless bulls will exit, AND eager bears will jump back on.

    -GG
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a73c0583a10a412a7178f9a7e93fcd9704ff9bd3bfe83f8329f9b7f932acf4c3.png

  • StockTalker

    Have a buy around TVIX 35, remain long ATM

  • HD

    Ding. HWB!

  • maxcherry
  • HD

    Agree. Think at min we test 2018 lows.

  • HD

    SPX has not had 4 consecutive red weeks since 2016

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {sigh}
    it’s just not the same without Julie around.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://sosassyandsingle.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/cougar-1.jpg

  • maxcherry

    historically this is one of the better weeks of the year, positive 71% of the time since 1986, next week not so much, 47% positive

  • HD

    Huge opportunity at this level. I’d be very surprised if they clear it in cash. Globex can’t rule it out but I’m looking left knowing whipsaw Wednesday is next.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long SQQQ again 12.93 1/3 position

  • bankwalker

    RUT just sliced through there like a hot knife through butter.

    Still long /RTY …

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long the rest at 12.87.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole can’t touch me in MY SAFE SPACE!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXQkXXBqj_U

  • ridingwaves

    qqq could run to 178-9 before meeting resistance. NDX is now resting above 200SMA

  • StockTalker

    Short now /NQ and in TVIX

  • bankwalker

    /ES breaks above 2800

    VIX breaks below 18

  • Darkthirty

    2816 target if 4th……

  • Darkthirty

    Watching 382 of last wave 2816, if not, correction is over………..

  • Darkthirty

    OR A-B-C

  • StockTalker

    Healthy 5 min div on /NQ

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG …LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Guys SPX Targets posted previously 2808 – 2810 and 2825 USO target 15.40 SLV overbought at a resistance with volume diminishing so taking profits
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS Two bottoming tails at 64.50 support and lower cloud boundary on daily chart. Looking at approx 72.79 for the lower high to short on bounce.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    exit /RTY @ 1592.60

    + 25.5

    nice ride

  • HD
  • HD

    ? I have .382 at 2798. Thinks it’s a bear wave. Get em all bullish again. Getting there

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    zat you?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    close to closing, so cross the line, and pull back by close?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    On the money HD 2800 – 2810 and 2825
    JULIE

  • HD

    A close above 2825 would be extremely painful.

  • HD

    A close above might be more bearish. Let’s see what they give us.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, that little fury part on top.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD IMO very high probability not a close above 2825. I may re short SPX (SH) at the close along with re shorting USO
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A good looking guy with that furry top WOW ! AND standing next to a sign. A good looking guy standing next to a sign a complete turn on ! WOW
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    45 comments on a day like this? I think I’m taking a vacation…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Dam, you’re into kaki green?
    I think the sign says ‘I BITED’.

  • ridingwaves

    46….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    47, but who’s counting!?

  • ridingwaves

    some bankers most likely….definitely a trend day…

  • BKXtoZERO

    48

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I am into signs esp guys standing next to signs Unbelievable a white sign with black lettering TOO MUCH GG LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Does Grizz know any of these guys at go fast campers!?
    rumor is they are in Bozeman!

    I’m ready to camp!
    https://gofastcampers.com/

  • Wave_surfer

    It just means it is trend up day.
    If you take a day off then the market will move back down.

  • HD

    I think you’d see more participation if you joined the conversation idk?

    Nice call on the VIX buy.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Why didn’t you tell me that 2 hours ago!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you didn’t sign up for the Leech Newsletter?
    πŸ˜‰

  • bankwalker

    Thanks for that link link. I’m looking for something like that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not to my knowledge GG Have not heard of them.and I don’t think he has either Weather is changing now with Fall in MT roaring Love it GG We camp three seasons of the year avoid the mountains Spring time Winter camping is great at even sub zero. Camping in the Spring is too unpredictable in the Rockies and can be very dangerous
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it looks like a real quality product.
    there’s a line waiting till Aug 2019.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Adding to sqqq 12.52. 12.88 earlier.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok. rats. I thought it might be a sign.
    one of those very strange coincidences.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A trend day not confirmed by volume Just Saying
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you’re too old to be sleeping in some pup tent.

    I assume Grizz has you setup in a 40ft 5th wheel trailer
    w/propane heater? EDIT: and push-out living room.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Re shorting oil
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    OPEX week is on cruise control.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nope GG Our sleeping bags zip together Would not have it any other way LOL !
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    maxpain is down to 284 on the spy with 280 having the largest block of options

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e682abfa94e5d059bd5f6216f80a6cd9b0c580ba2526318827b9e7424a89eda6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    god help you if the zipper gets stuck.
    both of you will be Bear lunch.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    silly me,
    I should have went with the *SMA*
    πŸ˜‰
    long live the Kragle!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/98ae25e66d0068a4a3bfd8e4d454f1d773e54fa8f5d09883a596e950337e5de5.png

  • Darkthirty

    skewed the numbers, 2817 is still ripe though. 2 was wimpy, so 4 should run 50% of 3…………………….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Life often gets in the way. Remember I’m in Europe.

  • Ronebadger

    IF you are flying, let us know so we can get our bets in…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    Thank you

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s *still* a sub $2 stock.
    shame on YOU.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG There could be a curve ball SPX i.e. sideways movement or consolidation then another leg down. 2810 was one of my targets now attained
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gold down…. I have the golden touch with gold… Nugt 12.2 to 15$ then NUGT 14.5 to 16.66. Who’s your gold daddy? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0cc2b35cd0d3a8b28538471022654d7a5f296ae2c2775c585d925aa4428ceac9.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG I took profits SLV this a.m Overbought going up into a strong resistance with volume diminishing Going to watch SLV 13.64 – 13.66
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV 13.58 is another target
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK SLV An inverted H & S pattern easily seen on the daily chart. Could go to approx 14.69
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    of course. Why do you think I show up here, every. single. day?

  • BKXtoZERO

    downsized my SQQ by half at 12.73 from 12.9

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Wave 5 in process? (sure looks that way)

  • StockTalker

    Full reversal on:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    then my chart still applies.
    =P
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/90f02a4ed33785f7fe05030c009afda66a2ec4953ced8b4383d8d1519116a369.png
    I’m not smart enough to forecast direction. I am however, smart enough to stay out of a blender!
    πŸ˜‰

  • StockTalker

    This could be a W3 in process. Wicked fast, /NQ 7k in a blink of an eye.

  • StockTalker

    Shorted /NQ, bought TVIX and puts yesterday. See how it plays out.

  • HD

    I know there were at least 2 people here yesterday pounding the table. Opportunity realized. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1894787a0481987b8983aec6d0174c2157bef6527e3cc02de4045b206e816df.png

  • bankwalker

    I’m expecting support at 1562 for RUT.

  • HD

    CL, USO down >3% since EW analysis started Monday….. Pays well.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Feds at 1400 hrs

  • StockTalker

    Going to be a rough ride today.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO YES ! Re shorted at close yesterday SPX attained one of my targets 2808 – 2810 and an intraday reversal. Still watching SPX 2nd target 2825
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Bear flag since 2710.51…. I’m gonna wait on that 2825 area as well…that will be in the area of a touch of the top of the bear flag

  • bankwalker

    long /ES @ 2809.25

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Whipsaw Wednesday. Did I say that? Wowza. HWB is the single best set up you will ever trade. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62559c49468ceb732000709b81ea90d1b6a8ad6d3c2a8d9c5491bec1a2eed803.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB SPX 2847 – 2852 is a possibility too but I doubt it
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Chinook is going to cost you a little bit more.
    =P

  • HD

    Ha, I’ll pick you up. I have yet to get a single question about the OPEX rules and I mention them every OPEX week.

    IPA and donut time. Back later for the close.

  • bankwalker

    OK HD. I’ll bite.

    What are your OPEX rules?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I have stated many times I do not count waves but look for impulses and corrections. EXAS a beautiful impulse down from September 19 and working on an ED for the final leg of the impulse. 64.50 was my posted target. NOW the short if not already will be a corrective bounce to a shorter high. Love these setups Guys
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD All Ears
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    sweeeeeet

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Taking profits USO short leaving 1/4 on USO at a target. An impulse down should be near completion. Very shortly a bounce to a lower high to Really throw the kitchen sink short
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    me three

  • bankwalker
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Did not go long the bounce off 27.50 support. Getting ready to re short this “FOCKER” as GG would say LOL! Targets for bounce 29.03 and 29.51 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50c05e3b3a37b4cb8b08e3de3d3f5cc90f9dbc158317a41aa28feb44523ce49b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    trendline highs on the RSI.

  • bankwalker

    exit /ES 2810.25

    + 1

  • bankwalker

    SPX double top – sold off at yesterday’s high

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good Eye GG I omitted the trend line RSI
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    look for MACD histogram failure at level 0.
    the cross-over. Muwahaha.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW LOL!
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    waiting for 2850 or more……

  • bankwalker

    long /ES @2815.25

  • BKXtoZERO

    100% cash, waiting for something that looks good to me through my own personal market “lens”, ES, Gold, Oil. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/461187f9b5b3a91e58532b1f3570e481738e8e1d795baf5290626615e6bd5feb.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Keltner Channel theory A big dump below the lower channel indicates a trend reversal and a strong close above the channel also indicates a trend reversal. Last week a big dump below the lower channel SPX Just saying Guys
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK SLV looks like a nice easy pullback to targets posted last night 13.64 – 13.66 (now changed to 13.66 – 13.67) and 13.58 to go long again
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Yesterday Goldman Sachs and the talking heads on the business channels declared the correction over ! Yeah that.s who I follow ! Unbelievable ! Get retail to buy now so the big boys can distribute more. People actually follow their crap !
    JULIE

  • Yoda
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Where is The Chief today.? I assume taking some time off Hope all is well Chief
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    He is in his safe place (he he he)

  • bankwalker

    exit /ES @ 2817.25

    + 2

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Busy day (week) for me Julie, sorry.

  • StockTalker

    Always!! lol

  • StockTalker

    Open the gates

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Glad you are OK Chief ! Work is busy for me too
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    At a Girl

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST IMO SPX A close below 2802.67 is bearish. May consider a re short at close
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Mojo picking up babe

  • ridingwaves
  • BKXtoZERO

    what is it?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    refresh….AutoZone…..thinly traded…95% of float is institutions….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gold still looks very suspect to my eye….. especially if we zoom out, this rally looks corrective…. short term also looks iffy https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d51240c0a20f6bcb8e5da539e22161d02f00cd32748652a0587de8fa7d4730f5.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    under the median..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f4f0688a2038f838b2774d6c45d9886e6bb30bcaa1ac8a735f3839e647148f0.png
    a great envelope has price not only in the upper regions, but the lower.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Don’t forget the currency angle that Mole mentioned.

    On the other end of the spectrum,
    copper has stalled for quite some time. (miners, silver, etc)
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17667419524

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I have a target EXAS on a bounce to a lower high 72.79 Can’t wait for this one RW Drooling off my lower lip
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    That’s also my .618 retracement target of the move down, i.e 2852-54

  • bankwalker

    You have a way with words Julie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and bald men.
    {wink}

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys This is me sneaking up on SPX getting ready for the kill ! Love it ! LOL! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9eae6a9d77c01dbb2013fb749fd7953471ea19dc92db8fee59b84ccebd2d8c49.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hedgies chart pleeeeease.

  • ridingwaves

    but the last time you did this before earnings you got walloped…..
    your fascination with this symbol is kind of weird…..I’m not in it as heavy as I rode it from 18 to 80….I have a small amount of shares to sell at 120…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GVIP GG Right at the 55.95 baseline (21) target — Above then the lower cloud boundary All we need is a reversal candle GVIP JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e7b33c99b0a32c278c312b52378b97461aaae4f01ca9d5250aec59b9b6303aef.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    touch RSI 50 first.

    edit: that’s a mighty V move stop run. another turn down would maybe only yield a HWB. (54.5 & gap fill?)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW EXAS has been a real winner long and short so I follow it. TV and magazine ads full bore promotion
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW EXAS lung cancer detection screening they possibly are behind the 8 ball. OHSU (Oregon Health Science University ) as I have read is way ahead and foremost in early detection. Quite possible EXAS is going to be runner up. Just saying RW
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6106e10e57ced4ceb5a7b7ea2c7aefa876a560a31bc4d3e61e24f387f5d65d11.png

    The uniformity of the credit Market seems precise vs. the sloppy equities realm.

  • bankwalker

    short /ES @ 2806.50

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW IMO Watch SPX Cash A close below 2802.67 has a bearish bias.
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    you have been just saying since it was in the $30’s….while I made a bunch of R’s from 19-80….why not keep this in same comment string below……slow down Cougar…..its winter….

  • BKXtoZERO

    HD congrats on that big green hit. I am at the Indian buffet celebrating for you. HWB! Thanks for great charts.

  • maxcherry

    i gotta think this continues lower, looks like an options expiration ramp , sell off through the election then a rally to new highs and then some, pre-election years have the best returns of the four

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1111990d3e6f0b2147e8272cf39d43a1a4f9f50a6e8adf3495c53bb57432c44.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I nailed the short from approx 32 down to 5 Going to nail it again. Winter is coming LOL !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Possible, although a sideways session is quite normal after a big lift like we saw yesterday.

  • HD

    great chart. was just about to post the 0-b TL trade. kudos.

  • HD
  • HD

    thx – I got lucky

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I too am expecting another down leg. I also mentioned yesterday a possible sideways movement or consolidation like the Chief suggests below then a move lower
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    That is what i see too sir…. Suppressing my primitive urges

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX closes above 2802.67
    JULIE

  • HD

    2,809.21-0.71 (-0.03%)

    and that is why you day trade.

  • maxcherry

    this rally is half as strong as the feb bounce, i am skeptical

  • Yoda

    Don’t fight OPEX

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    There she goes, TIMBER!!

  • maxcherry

    lumber has a history of leading the spx lower, we are due for a correction i think the spx has been in one since jan.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/45b00d0703f910f5bd6fe5735178ca55a128f76f5ca3bb0b60a8127eaa4f81f9.png

  • bankwalker

    short /RTY @ 1584.80

  • StockTalker

    First target /NQ 7200 test.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The next leg down Yes ! 2808 – 2810 was my first target attained
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Out of TVIX @ 42

  • StockTalker

    Long EDC for a scalp

  • StockTalker

    5 min setting up, see what the bulls got.

  • StockTalker

    Flipped /NQ