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VIX Sell Signal
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VIX Sell Signal

by The MoleJuly 9, 2019

A few weeks back I talked about the VIX and how it had slowly established a new rising support line starting at the end of 2018. Which in turn ties directly into last week’s post in which I suggested that the recent rally in equities was one of the most feared and perhaps most hated as well.

The underlying idea here is one of market sentiment. And it’s gradually become more skittish over the past 18 months, as depicted by the rising floor from which IV jumps higher were launched in August of 2018 and April of this year.

Now clearly the recent stab lower to the VIX 12 mark seems to be following the same script as it now has bestowed us with a  a brand spanking new sell signal.

In case you are new here or have forgotten: For a confirmed VIX sell signal you need 3 events:

  1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA) – check!
  2. A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal – check!
  3. A higher close back inside the 2.0 BB – check!

Once you get those three events a major reversal usually occurs within the next week. The sell signals used to be far more accurate than the buy signals, but in the past eight years or so that relationship reversed, indicating that its accuracy is dependent on the ongoing trend.

Given the above we are now looking at a confirmed technical equities sell signal. And in terms of seasonal statistics it has signaled at a favorable time – only August would have offered more bearish bias.

As you know this crusty old market megalomaniac never blindly jumps on any sell or buy signals and – even worse – he stubbornly insist on price confirmation.

Which may not be too far away as a breach through the ES 2956.25 spike low would suggest that we are heading into a mid summer market correction. Until that happens however the long setup I posted yesterday remains active.

Update on King Dollar – it’s recovered much of the ground it gave up post Fed announcement and I just raised my trailing stop to the 1.5 mark leaving it sufficient room for a run higher.

Of course my joy may be short lived as Fed chairman Jerome “Kryptonite” Powell has not one, not two, not three, but FOUR opportunities to jaw bone the Dollar lower this week.

Here’s a goodie for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • DaVerg

    you mean market sell signal, not to sell the vols, no ?

  • ridingwaves

    RIP Mr. Perot, you were the last hope for citizens vs corporations-politicians
    https://www.dallasnews.com/business/business/2019/07/09/ross-perot-self-made-billionaire-patriot-philanthropist-dies-89

  • DaVerg

    he gave us bill clinton, which was a big mistake- one of the third worst presidents (1st carter, 2nd obama, 3rd clinton) in terms of hurting our nation; his hatred for Bush caused great harm to american people.

  • ridingwaves

    He wins if family is not threatened….he was right about both Bush and Clinton along with Nafta and many other things…..Bill Clinton was elected by sheep, sometimes you can’t do anything about that herd……He was the last chance to sever the 2 headed snake……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • ridingwaves

    you need to post more setups GG not what could have beens

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah, I think you are correct!

  • ridingwaves

    not saying it in mean way, comment boards do that…but it would be interesting to post your chart similar to your INTC musings where we can look at it and say yea or nay….

  • ridingwaves

    no health care……ding, ding, ding….winner….he was dead on…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s cool. I don’t think anyone shows setups.
    bunch of leeches.
    😉

    I’m going Zen, like Mole said. Indicators suck and are reverse looking. Even candles stink.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb0eb50a8b0462a48d43bd2bc29c384bb4a756b14f2d6647f490cc54301d3010.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Miners,
    after 3 years, that stock/index should move up and out.
    here is my line in the sand, if it’s a false move.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/75cb02cf360b5dcb0715d38dfea26194046bd40d9198f622bf251195a807b736.png
    -GG

  • BKXtoZERO

    added some TVIX 16.36 to my position from last week 15.5.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I think I remember you saying that last time you didn’t have a line in the sand?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    the kid needs braces. honeybadger talk is cheap.
    ;-D

  • BKXtoZERO

    I voted for him.

  • BobbyLow

    I was going to come back with a lot of stuff but kept my promise to delete challenging and argumentative political bullshit instead.

  • BKXtoZERO

    closed CL short via DWT for small gain

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG MOS down to our 23 target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Miguel Sanchez

    Pienso que aguantaran todo es mes . El VIX suele hacer ciclos de 3 meses . En junio el VIX no exploto e hizo nuevos mínimos no siempre sucede, pero el los últimos tiempos enreda durante 3 meses después de cada pico . El ultimo sucedió el 9 de mayo . Aun falta 1 mes para la fecha…..

    I think they will endure everything this month. The VIX usually cycles for 3 months. In June the VIX did not explode and made new lows does not always happen, but in recent times it entangles for 3 months after each peak. The last one happened on May 9. There is still 1 month left for the date.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV per chart yesterday must get above 14.16 which is today’s high so far MOS GG and I had an initial target yesterday approx 23 and there now and could bounce. SPX dip buyers today approx 8 ema
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    but BL we are all friends….and he wasn’t a politician…..so what say u…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Banking coin?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I remember Ross – would have voted for him but I wasn’t a citizen yet back then.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hola Miguel – dónde vives tú?

  • BKXtoZERO

    awaiting coin…………..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing great Chief I did yesterday ADP Today this a.m bought UNG per weekly chart last night
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Bought UNG this a.m
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I did too….the people were about to win……it was close….the last hope for Americans….now were dumber and sheeple even more so…..and everything he mentioned happened, too bad people were stuck in their 2 party system gangbang…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I always liked the guy too He made a lot of sense
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I think you may be missing them…MSquare made me some great cash, of course I have offered a few but most folks here are not bio playas….my oil setup was pretty tight and escape at 70 was dead on…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BobbyLow

    I actually liked Ross Perot and he was especially correct about the “Giant Sucking Sound” regarding Nafta.

    I just want to stay away from the inflamatory stuff. Like I said I almost came back with who I thought was the worst president ever and that would have forced a reply which would have forced a reply etc., etc., and before long we would have a full blown shit storm argument on our hands. For what? We’re not going to accomplish a fucking thing except piss each other off.

    The funny part is that you and I have a lot more in common than we don’t. One of the things we have in common is how strong we can be in our opinions. 🙂 But although we are on opposite sides of our current political situation, I’m also of the strong belief that you and I could be in the same foxhole fighting a common enemy for our right to have our opposing opinions. (If this makes any sense)

  • BobbyLow

    Doing OK so far Boss. Currently long from this AM at 2973.75. Today’s price action is a little better than yesterday’s but still feels a little wierd.

  • HD

    more like spending coin. Summer is expensive for this household.

  • HD

    hey Julie. Welcome back

  • ridingwaves

    I get it, please don’t think I’m starstruck on whomever is in office….the funny thing is whomever is in office has about 540 other dolts to deal with to get anything done to begin with…..my enemy is the 2 party system…..GW warned us on his death bed over 200 years ago…

    I would back you up in a heartbeat too…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $TNX The 21 ema and resistance could be snake eyes for the Banks
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88e3eb90c4a2c9b1b94f351b23595b31a035432299aa558b88697885d8ca5ecf.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BL Dip buyers off the 8 ema this a.m
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks HD We were up in the Wind River Range WY and saw a lot of elk.The bulls now in velvet and beautiful.They should be in the velvet your neck of the woods too Southern Rockies AZ
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Daily 5 ema at 2875.06 which could preclude today’s bounce Just monitoring SPX No position SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Dipsters today bought the 8 ema and support Let’s see if it can get above 5 ema
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/776c31fa69415b1d754b515c071286a27c4c0305bad5b88d4f155bf01a064442.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    TNX is at support IMHO, you just have to look far far left.
    APR 2015.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25041086829

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Does a “Bear” look far far left ? lol
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Could be Julie. One thing I’ve found is that day trading 5 Minute Candles with relatively small candles and mostly small wicks are an easy trade and that large opposing candles with long upper and lower wicks are a hot mess and best to stay away from. Trading the latter is like a child learning that it’s best not to touch a hot stove. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    Out 2977.25 +3.5 Might get back in

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL What’s the most important time of day for you 1st hour? Last hour ? Both ? Or all day ?. I usually take stops off the first 30 minutes
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Good idea on taking stops off for the first 30 minutes.

    After some trial and error, I found it best to look for my first set-up a little after 10:00 AM. I want to see what happens for a little while after the NYSE Open before I think about a possible entry. If I have no entry before 11:30 ish, then I’ll try to wait until after 1 PM. There can be exceptions if my chart looks real clean otherwise I try to stick with the timeframes above.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Exactly BL The first 30 min can set the tone. As stated I usually take stops off the first 30 min and let things settle down. The adage amateurs open the day and the pros close the day
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I voted for him, too. A few people that I talked to wouldn’t vote for him because “He wasn’t going to win”, end of that conversation….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mixed bag Guys The “Hedgies” GVIP no new ATH and have been distributing MTUM momentum factor ETF continues uptrend with ATH and very strong Heikin Ashi to filter noise
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys you can buy MTUM
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m trying to talk my wife into moving to AZ – Flagstaff perhaps or Prescott. Will have to visit first though to make sure we like it. Thing is that I really prefer alpine environments with plenty of green and water. But after the past two winters I’m not sure MT, ID, or WY is an option.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Flagstaff is nice NAU is there for your eye candy LOL Your wife will like Flagstaff for the amenities. Plenty of recreation and has a winter there with snow for winter activities.The 4 seasons also which is nice.Only caveat Too close to GG LOL
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Only been to Flagstaff once and it was very nice. It was in July and about 100 degrees F before we left about 150 Miles south of Flagstaff. We were on my motorcycle and was a little shocked to find it to be 65 degrees in Flagstaff. It makes me wonder what winters are like there?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Flagstaff in a mountainous setting and very beautiful. You will like it
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief MT winters can be long and brutal
    JULIE-

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Julie what about Southern Colorado? You’ve got the mountains around Durango with winter temps not too cold and summer temps good. I assume Alamosa and La Vita would be warmer? I’ve been to Durango and Silverton and plenty of mountains there.

  • Darkthirty

    Missed target by 1.5 pts

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes BL That would be nice for the Chief too We always liked the Southern Rockies. Only thing is if his wife can live in a high altitude environment.but you adjust to that quickly. The Cascades in Western Oregon would be nice too. That would be a mild winter setting with a lot of recreation outdoors too You get out of Portland and Eugene areas and Oregon is pretty much rural. Oregon does not rain as much as people think it does. Western Washington gets much much more rain than Western Oregon does
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oregon towns Roseburg ; Medford ; Grants Pass are very nice with a tremendous amount of recreation and mild winters
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Oregon is an excellent choice too.

  • Miguel Sanchez

    en la montaña, a 50 km de A Coruña y Santiago.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    if they want to live? Yes.

  • HD

    Flagstaff is a really cool little college town. Couple good breweries too.
    https://www.motherroadbeer.com/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Could pullback daily chart up into it’s 55 ema and short term overbought BUT trading the weekly chart for a longer term trade
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99f081962729e0d20dc1912b8c9fa4e79a03a7212ecd582e7cff14b2178c16f9.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I stayed away. I got 3 good whacks on it. It hit one of the MA’s and the whole thing could be yet another corrective little bounce.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    here’s a setup.

    Long till the wedge line, tallyHOOOOO

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMZN

    !@$@#%^&*&

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty
  • BKXtoZERO

    Pulled half today’s tvix off lost 0.10 cents… Signaling they want more. Holding some from last week and half today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Aaah – estás en el norte. Es mas fresquito que en VLC?

  • Miguel Sanchez

    No tengas duda !!! . La semana pasada no sufrimos ola de calor. En la montaña siempre hace peor tiempo que en la costa , pero A Coruña es mucho mas fresca todo el año . Ya estas aburrido de Valencia ?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Who in the “Hell” eats soybeans ? Are you trying to promote veggie burgers or something?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    they use it in place of breast milk. Those dam women need to pull out their tata’s and use them for what god made them FOR.
    !#@$!@$
    https://www.verywellfamily.com/thmb/Sx8LiOOQs0Ls180muyFu44Iv2Y0=/768×0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/157860556-56a6fd213df78cf772914cf9.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    sorry, you trolled me good. dinner hasn’t settled yet.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Cyd’s making dinner tonight for everyone so have a little free time
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Rhubarb pie, try it some time.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Listen up GG SPX the last 12 trading days I count 4 distribution days. Today a gap down and stick save off the 8 ema and support (thumbnail insert) and closing above a resistance and 5 ema. Volume on bounce light.Very tenuous If a reversal tomorrow might be a short
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89a1cac043dd55109c33f9adc1b74cf2be8f804dbba8f6cee62d4511b6d34f76.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I like anything rhubarb
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    cool! I had rhubarb sauce in Cali, to die for!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s all bullshit. meandering price. just look at FEB/MAR/APR.
    if you can scalp a day move, congrats.
    but otherwise, I’m thinking it’s all just noise.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG There could be a triple top forming in the last 1 1/2 year to close out the bull market. 2002 was a double top
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    triple, schmiple.
    watch another index. like the NYSE composite.

    https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=442365228

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I do GG IMO the NAZ and RUT are the most important as they contain the aggressive sectors. GG Cyd says hello Dinner now ready Catch ya later
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Scott_CA

    Well….we, the carnivores, do, although indirectly. Having handled 1000’s of bushels, I felt compelled to respond and was equally curious. I knew most of them were used for animal feed; this article lays it out in pictures……a quick read…
    https://ncsoy.org/media-resources/uses-of-soybeans/

    This is a far more interesting ……and much longer…read…..
    https://www.fastcompany.com/90240606/chinas-hunger-for-soybeans-is-a-window-into-an-encroaching-environmental-crisis

  • Ian Naugler
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    AMZN, steady as she goes.
    😉
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMZN

  • ridingwaves

    first SPX move over 3K in regular hours….sold off….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ..crushed.

  • HD

    anybody sell round numbers?

  • BKXtoZERO

    sold yesterdays half tvix from 16.36 at 15.76…. that is a successful trading plan there if I can keep doing that. Holding tvix from last week 15.5 area but making no progress this year at all with VIX (yet)

  • BKXtoZERO

    trying larger intraday play, tvix 15.59 against ES 3001 secondary peak…. probably a waste of time. Taking TSLA approach where I lose a little on every trade BUT I make it up on volume :/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Natty Gas UNG making a run SLV above 14.16 but pulling back from an upper down trend line drawn
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    maybe gold shorts about to also…the fight to keep it below that line will be epic…
    1607 area and perhaps higher, 1500 and 1550 resistance….monthly 10 yrs…
    the weekly chart is shaping up sweetly…

    one thing may sidetrack it, fed stands pat….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c848546982fb4cf2b24eb934d2f52d0f0eae12b25452e05f549dcd2a9428ed32.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I have $GOLD possible 1580 but there should be pullbacks along the way
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The previous 12 trading days I counted 4 distribution days which is an alert
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    good thing, I don’t think you can count past 20.
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One billion one …. One billion two …. One billion three lol
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Ronebadger

    Still valid until it closes below the lower BB…wait for it…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK For a confirmation of the sell signal It must go above it’s mid line 20 sma
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    This is what;s happening Guys Bonds TLT pulling back giving a lift to equities Let’s watch TLT approx 130 support ; trend line and rising 55 ema $BKX Banks showing relative weakness today
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab44b1a46e42516bc72de84b809d8ee5ac4cfaa7b5f1b3fc269becb3137961a2.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    55 ema not 66 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    FWIW SPX 1.272 extension is 3015. Now if TLT drops to 130 and bounces and SPX goes to 3015 that could be the coinciding pullback SPX and bounce TLT Something to watch
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 1.414 extension is 3047
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG If WFC continues pulling back and does not bounce @ 46.80 Cyd would like a strawberry cheesecake with extra graham cracker crumbs lol
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Nice bounce today above 5 ema RSI above 50 and STOCHS turn up at mid level A close above https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/145ae51fa499f2460fd3057917f11ceccac8bd1a4dcdbafc8b9b21c86592a0c0.png downtrend line Yes !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    NUGT was 14. Now it is 28. A double if my math is correct. Congrats to any metals longs bullish back at the lows.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Weekly chart Intersection of upper trend line could be it Guys. Even with last weeks July 4th abbreviated week volume “Jack Poop’ Going to fall under it’s own weight Watch the upper trend line Guys
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0438ab916e0e2b0c39b0435048c11456872597a4329b4d917a58f099fa4d881b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    NIO Weekly chart A Chinese electric car maker.listed NYSE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a4d64dfce87e31156de41ebb4416aac7fd4780d340b75bfa458f127f1f1ff03.png Last week a 3 bar reversal breaking out of channel. Overbought daily so going to nail a pullback.We have been reading about the proposed electric car mandate in China as they are choking to death on air pollution
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Can you believe this … Seriously Guys electric cars in China are going to be a must
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If not air pollution It’s going to be Marboro’s killing them off. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8925767f21dc74eb08cabab037676bc90213841e32acb1a3776172df81691a25.png WTF
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX My short possibly tomorrow breaking below support ; 5 ema and lower trend line Just waiting
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b09cd644e1b620a59b163197f1cb4054f2ebc72ac6b8b0f630668cc545617ff.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    https://countrymeters.info/en/China
    2 Million negative Net.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CAT Is this a cup with a handle OR a V bottom going too far too fast ? Anyway looking for a bounce whenever it occurs to short a lower high
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/794c5b07a1ccc46d1906aa9e54067ded27c46dd9b4b3d1ad6e4ad3d14a0374ad.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    WFC. out. paid the vig.

    7 or 8 days with no change. Insolence of the Market can bite.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    WFC Too choppy GG Cyd has a winner 48 a no go
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG UNP is a short bearish close below 169.62 Keep on radar GG Rails not looking good at all Bearish rounded top and or bearish descending triangle UNP and $DJUSRR
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s all good!
    USO up, UUP down.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV and GLD up also Nice trade GG We nailed it Stop in place
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice volume today in both Expecting a pullback UNG so taking some profit Leaving 1/4 on
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yup…out of most of today’s tvix but am accumulating.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    did they split or something?

    I said rock bottom 25, and now it’s 15?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Because it’s Draconian not Amazonian lol
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I think we were talking DRV

  • Darkthirty

    I poured sand molds with grey iron for a few years. Smoked Kool 100’s with the filter broke off, cleanest air I got all shift!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Strange world they have created for themselves. One in which they are unable to breathe the air around them. Quality of life index: 0

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That is not a rule I am familiar with.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys AAPL Very strong resistance 208 – 209 If it gets there and fails reverses. Let’s send this Cupertno CA outrageously expensive I Phone “Crap” to the garbage dump
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/46d384881eebed16e8b97b909199f78c06fe067dcb9f6c1c107f26ce6cb1782e.png

  • Darkthirty

    How many you lookin for?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Alright, listen up you lazy rats.

    Here is the setup.
    Explosive gasoline till early August.
    for the pros, they know that SPX laid over GASO is not identical, but close enough.

    If the soggy graham cracker VIX sell signal works, this would be an excellent place for it to happen.

    Your call.
    -GG
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b00ba91186347dfca7ef73cf5aa14f255c538836bb0f1f7d47a5043ea123d932.png

  • Scott_CA

    Long post–but it’s over for the day, so…..To those of you for whom this is common knowledge and practice, apologies for wasting your time.

    From ‘Bobby Low’ last week…”The learning curve never stops.”

    A similar situation happened to me–I revised a Stop Loss order upward on a stock with higher than usual volatility, but 2 candles later it reversed, eventually 2 pennies more than enough to take me out, reversed again and continued up. After I got over my mad, I used the fairly extensive data I have on a handful of issues, and a few stats, to find a better solution than picking an arbitrary Stop Loss # (usually one of those ’round’ ones, like 2.5 (%, I presume)).

    Assuming the closing price % change/day curve is Gaussian (true? false?), the probability curve tells us that 1 Standard Deviation (SD) will include 34% of the prices, 2 SD 50%. We are only concerned if the price goes down–unless, of course,
    trading ‘short’. A solution is to compute the SD for the issue over an appropriate time period, and set the Stop Loss relative to SD levels. A stop set at -1 SD may stop you out 16% of the time, -1.3 SD 10%, -2 SD 5%. I picked what seemed like a perfectly
    reasonable, ’round’ $ figure out of the air, and it turned out to be 15 cents, ~ 0.5%, more than -1 SD. The ‘appropriate time period’ is important because the SD will change, perhaps dramatically, depending on market conditions.

    And then I realized the same solution was on the screen the whole time. Every ticker will be different, and changes over time, but Bollinger Bands are basicly Moving Average +/-
    Standard Deviations plotted on the chart. It is trivial to pull a number off the chart to use as a Stop Loss setting–and it will not be one of those ’round’ numbers. The center line equals the MA, the upper and lower lines the SD limits selected in the Bands settings.
    It is also easy to see how the SD changes over time, requiring Stop adjustment.

    And it might be an even better idea to use the SD of the daily range. If I’d used the SD, I’d still have the issue, and a few extra paper $ in my acct. Guess I’ll have to buy it back. ………But hold on! Went for a walk, and the stock is now stepping down toward my modified Stop Loss, crossed EMA 64 (I think TradingView uses ‘data points’, or
    sampling periods, not ‘days’, in the < 1day sample MA calcs–another mystery), next stop -2 SD, everybody OFF the bus!!

  • QUANTO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    DISney stock all time highs?
    I’ll be selling in the morning.
    I think security needs to review their response times!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RBWuYFeg9Y&feature=youtu.be&has_verified=1
    (youtube may pull this before morning, *warning* violence in the Magic Kingdom.)
    is nothing sacred?

  • BKXtoZERO

    nice…. can’t wait to take my daughter

  • Ronebadger

    It’s Trendlines Thursday (or was it Tuesday?) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7ffc8a653f30e6d5de5b7519db138d5f225cc8bbe599373f875e8d172906fbf.png ihttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3d7dc70cda3fb3b1715ccf1f90209f9fb718865df2a98b9b7cf12f9f1de14c20.png

  • Ronebadger
  • Ronebadger

    The more I stare at it…the more full of crap I am…