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Volar’s Math Mix On FX

Volar’s Math Mix On FX

by MoleSeptember 15, 2011

So I obviously love to play seasonality.  A little math here and there, with a dash of sentiment, and a splash of price action makes a fairly good trading plan.

I will give away 1 free chart.

So here is the free one: Seasonal momentum of JPY:USD Spot. The left axis is the JPY relative to a 100sma. The right axis contains 2 seasonal averages for the last 30 years- notice both have the same directional tendency.

Now for the crew.

[amprotect=nonmember] Volar’s charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

US$ all years.

This is just to show how extreme we are seasonally.

Here is analog years.

I am betting it goes lower.

More evidence:

Now, I have less Euro data, but it works well too.

** UPDATE for BONDS***

Here are all years since 1962

Here is the seasonal index.

Well there you have it….

And I leave you with AUD:JPY


Best of luck unbiased, trading.


About The Author
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.