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Volume Desert Ahead
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Volume Desert Ahead

by The MoleJanuary 7, 2019

The current run higher from the lows near SPX 2347 has progressed nicely thus far. Despite ample doomsday clickbait being peddled all through the weekend the E-Mini futures have managed to hold newly gained ground over Sunday night. However we are now heading straight into a volume desert and one of usย may have to head down to Tijuana in order to secure us the services of an experienced coyote.

As it so happens our resident curator of the lair (GoldGerb) lives nearby in Arizona, but last time we sent him down there on a mission he blew our entire budget in some place called The Titty Twister. So unfortunately we may be on our own on this one.

Now in all seriousness, this is really where the rubber is going to hit the road, or not. This stretch between ES 2525 and ES 2625 – almost exactly 100 handles – is what what separates the juiciest short trading opportunity of 2019 from a massive short squeeze.

Currently I am positioned for the latter scenario with about 1R in paper profits – my stop remains at break/even. I am not married to either scenario per se but given my open campaign a run higher into ES 2600 would afford me the opportunity to take profits and flip sides should I see signs of trouble on the horizon.

Now I took a glance at UVOL on the SPX which appears to have been completely bot driven last Friday.

The Zero indicator showed very strong buying pressure at the same time, so my current assessment of the situation is that institutional were accumulating here.

Which is a bit strange and an alternative explanation that comes to mind is that we are looking at distribution. However I for one do not remember seeing such distinct buying signals on the Zero in times of distribution, but I will remain open minded and keep an eye on the signal today.

SPX:VIX is also looking supportive and started to strongly diverge on Thursday. I had missed looking at that chart that day and I would be kicking myself had I not already been long. So perhaps I may not be completely useless after all ๐Ÿ˜‰

We have entries today but I’ll have to spoil my subs a little. So if you have a secret decoder ring please join me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Great post.

    Ha ha.
    Hey! they were having a half off special. I couldn’t resist. Bargain of a LIFETIME.
    *AND* free water.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ps. The SPX Market is resting. go look at HYG. credit pumps are ON, IMNSHO.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Volume deserts. Where every mirage contains either a bull or a bear sipping on some water.

  • StockTalker

    /NQ above 6500 can run fast or be a road block:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Which type of p…y did you choose?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Jason13

    Likely smelly:0

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Getting ready to short oer post last night previous thread
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Before anyone spits out levels to watch(ahem, Julie ;)), experience has taught me that they arenโ€™t very reliable in volume deserts. Once the market wanders in, they can either act as powerful vacuums or fans to the tape. Tread carefully with โ€œlevelsโ€.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Once inside one I would agree. The thing to watch out for usually is whether or not the tape stalls out beforehand, especially in a situation like this when we’re looking at a snapback within what thus far looks like a new bear cycle.

  • Mark Shinnick

    They were half mastectomies that night, man. Gotta read the memo.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The volume holes are selling not buying. The same with the volume hole @ 2347 which acted as support. Present volume hole will act as resistance
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….a place through which animal spirits have zipped-by in another dimension….or where they make their unsettled appearance to decide where to go next.

  • ridingwaves

    2615 is spx 100, that could be tough resistance now….LABU has been very productive, moved up stop to 41.80…yummy…

    ridingwaves 3 days ago
    where will the FAANG money find its way into the market….I like Oil and Biotech, small caps here…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I have 2616 Also per post previous thread i.e. $VIX chart and comment. Just biding my time
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I have a nibble (probe)long UNG
    JULIE

  • Ted

    I think it could be headed for the top of the keltner channel and the 55ema. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a219861c225eb4847016354ad5f0f77793f115f8b1e72c095df1fc41bbba835.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It could Ted .. I have a level 2639 matching the 55 ema. That would be a MACD center line test on the daily chart
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    took 1/2 off Labu

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of UWT “investment” with loss on 4Rs of 1$ from 12 to 11

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long small TVIX 57.8 but keeping it tight, only hold if reversal here https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/046f7b3546e623301acdebf9dee27c5b359b16cdc8bfcd55196c58cc3f350ca1.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    huh? Did you take the 13 day round trip??

  • BKXtoZERO

    bought in tranches, avg price 12 even, sold all at 11

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ah.

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes… I was in there while it was at 8…. no more investing.

  • Mark Shinnick

    It doesn’t appear to be a bad buy in this area. Did the position burn too much emotional capital?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie & I had this similar conversation over USO.

    Julie’s winning? ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p5252565705c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW IMO smart move overbought going up int an upper down trend line and daily 55 ema
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes… 4R will do that, just seeing too many reports of OPEC failure, excess supply, manufacturing orders diving etc…. shale still producing…. nothing good.

  • ridingwaves

    could run thru here to 52.50 area or higher to 59….toss up….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, the concept seems sound. Maybe something around 9.6 relieves enough of the risk.

  • BKXtoZERO

    it will probably base for a while, resistance at 50 will probably hold is my view

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX breaks below the lower uptrend line from January 3 … declines to 2527 then bounces to a lower high .. Julie will be shorting
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPY. just put a sell order for 256.88

    i’ll meet you at the rendezvous point on Tatooine

    [SPY]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p6127216915c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The volume hole was selling .. IMO shorts pounding it and presently already covered. The short covering is basically over Need new buyers and SPY volume not convincing. SPX presently at one of my targets 2560 – 2566 Could go to 2573 – 2579 which are other targets . As stated below biding my time and watching like a hawk. I covered my long Friday going up into the daily 21 ema @ 2541 and did not re enter long. Short term overbought daily – 60 min and 10 min charts IMO danferous to be long presently.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t have time to be a Hawk. So I set my order, and go to lunch!!
    it will fill, or it won’t. RSI 50 for that extra sizzle. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    #HoneyBadgersUnite

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b95960e76e1f012e96cd492b4ee0a2bd013968629b9e361a59323ed46f1847a.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You may have been over thinking matters here, Julie. In snapback situations like these it’s important to keep your winners running, especially if you manage to grab an entry early and thus have ‘wiggle room’ that can withstand a stop run.

    Unless of course your goal was to just scalp an R or two and be done with it.

  • evilasevildoes

    JNJ mar 140 boom

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nobody wants it.
    120 first.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Yes I had a winner going .. I did not want to hold over the weekend and certainly not going to re enter long per reasons above.IMO A bear market and overbought is dangerous in a bear market. I have done very well in this bear market going long and short and not greedy.I miss some handles long right now not concerned . Being in cash with SPX presently is a trade too called preservation of capital which is paramount in a bear market. I have not lost a dime and have picked my spots making profits long and short. Start with a nibble then add
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    does the rally change much? not yet ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/36fa0591cdc75d65f0b474963cb0cea689e14d3300aa71e4d81f089d0215aa74.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c32bfa525c98b157c8b4ca07a7072a3d61d3298b9388fef627e8179334f9691.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae9565adf221cbe0c9f080a49c31c1f07007c82262b6a62af305447f6db5fb58.png

    AFter the down trend at end of last year – we could see 4-7 days of correction.. watch the levels
    But the downtrends are still n force – and the bulls are getting bold again..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BB25, interesting.
    I like the BB100, less drama. needs a median line.

  • maxcherry

    a move above 2600 +- opens the door to 2700

    i’m holding 2700 strike calls

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1ae92c2767b24f725d5d9b43fc92671a025c420f62116a21d51af552867e572.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • TimeToPanic

    I’m curious if anyone else here looks for H&S patterns and trades them?
    I’ve never seen such an obvious and perfect set-up to be honest, a year-long pattern at the top of a bubble, a lower left shoulder, and now a zippy re-test of the neckline, hopefully, just another 20 SPX points or so. Anyone else play H&Ss?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I look out for them but not always reliable – but worth keeping eye on even if it fails – that gives you other clues about the market –
    DAX did it – target 10220 – low 10275
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b629555cc939049dd0d2bc5dcaad1c77f7b6c64bf64edf206c8dc0557a042a89.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Julie, ES is back tapping the bottom of the channel again. Do or die here?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/V56YRfYu/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Short term overbought. Approaching RSI level where a reversal can occur anytime. PPO at 1 where a reversal can occur any time Fib retracement confluence and fib arc retracement. I repeat short term overbought in a bear market JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c90d6bfeead8f029ddf1cd8a55f10e97bc1cd23f47b71ac37178df361a10d15c.png

  • Jason13

    It could, but you canโ€™t say for sure it will act as resistance. It likely is but it may want to go quite above the desert before it decides to drop. What Iโ€™m saying is, donโ€™t short too soon.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, understood and well played based on your criteria.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    There’ll be a tweet about a china deal soon! –

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP The more symmetrical a H & S pattern is in time and price the more reliable it is.
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew today? It’s quiet here which once again correlates well with the market pushing higher….

  • Jason13

    Iโ€™m a bull wondering in the desert now…..I think I see GG and Mark, and Mole, and Julie, and TTP, and Cat and everyone else sitting at a table in the distance, all drinking water…..or is it Vodka.;)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason … Grape juice !LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX @ my one target 2560 – 2566 Class C negative divergence 60 min MACD Squeeze between two trend lines … i.e rising wedge This is fun !
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I hope so, and that’ll be the time to sell. A browse around the twittersphere over the weekend revealed lost of traders sat in cash, and none that I could see were waiting to buy, all waiting to sell this rally.

  • evilasevildoes

    good call

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Volume very “POOPY” As mentioned below short squeeze is over and any new buyers ? Does not look like it IMO
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So only Julie here? Is everyone still on vacation? Or did everyone get caught short again?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Holding short miners.

  • evilasevildoes

    NQ 6489

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Like Julie, watching in cash at the moment.

  • Jason13

    But no new sellers either. Tape is flat as Mole posted above.

  • evilasevildoes

    algo mania

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 10 min chart An important trend line breakdown. 10 min oversold A bounce now to a lower high Julie will short … NIBBLE ONLY .. Will add below 2527 bearish candle close on daily

  • Mark Shinnick

    Let the bots cream each other over pennys… friggin soulless game humans need to stay the fuck out.

  • Ted

    A rather significant equity move considering the lack of VIX deterioration and not much bond selling either. Ant thoughts?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys This is HORRENDOUS ! NOOOO ! A walk in has been directed to me at work ! NOOOO !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Might have to print out some charts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    DOW 23,66 Sevvvvvven.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Quick!
    run to the bathroom!
    he he he

  • evilasevildoes

    just watch hourly to avoid a headache

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Silver Tequila – 100% blue agave

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all out. SPY 254.50
    tomorrow could be a change. Homey don’t play that.

  • evilasevildoes

    such low vol NQ flat

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Holy cow…this is true every single moment of out lives that all ego forgets.

  • Ronebadger

    Sitting on hands with no skin in any game…I’m not trusting this move up… S&P up .84% with a flat VIX. (When the S&P is up 1% or so, I wanna see the VIX down 10+%) 10 days until vacation…I’ll just wait until I get back, then see what’s going on.

  • Ted

    Homey has no faith in the PPT.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh, I have faith.
    ..but I’m not an IDIOT.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://i.chzbgr.com/full/4016782848/h8940641C/

  • Sp00nman

    I’m not doing much.. missed a nice long entry on friday and have been holding my wang..

  • Ted

    Good one

  • Ted

    I’m here Long IWM

  • randomuser6789

    I share your skepticism based on the VIX

  • TimeToPanic

    Short the pig til it squeals (tomorrow).

  • Sp00nman

    Bulls look like they’re getting a little tired, and some levels look like we could be approaching a short term top. Put/call ratio, vix approaching 20, and we’re testing the bottom of the range that held us for a while at ~2567. 65 is also the 50% fib from the last large decline.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    50%, yes.

    +1

  • Jason13

    Not inspired here. Flat

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Oh SNAP.

  • Darkthirty

    What month?

  • maxcherry

    jan 31st options very cheap

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I can’t believe it. I wanted to short the lower high after the bounce following the lower uptrend line break !A beautiful 50% retracement too I had to address a walk in client not making an appointment. He is from Joplin MO and on vacation in MT A super nice guy .. Oh Well .. Tomorrow ..SPX held 2544 which IMO line in the sand SPY “POOPY volume as noted in a post below Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What do you want to see? A continued run higher through the volume hole? Not going to be this easy. Look at the Zero indicator though and it’s clear that there were nary any sellers today.

  • TimeToPanic

    ‘Several years back, a cycle watcher named Steve Puetz attempted to see
    if eclipses and market crashes were somehow related. He studied eight of
    the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania
    of 1637 to the Nikkei of 1990. He found that market crashes tend to
    occur near full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start
    after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is
    also a lunar eclipse. Puetz found that all eight crashes occurred six
    days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six
    weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, Puetz
    calculated, are less than 1 in 127,000.’

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2019/01/07/yesterdays-solar-eclipse-was-first-of-six-eclipses-in-2019-with-super-wolf-blood-moon-up-next/#7088be551c3c

  • TimeToPanic

    We’re all waiting for 2570s.

  • TimeToPanic

    ‘He….concludes that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full
    moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering
    device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology
    from manic greed to paranoia’

    All boxes ticked.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    before someone beats me..
    “Gartman Makes “Watershed” Bullish Call: “The Game Has Changed; Stocks Are Headed Higher””

    Thank the Market Makers!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief OBV 60 min trending slightly higher. OBV 60 min breaks below it’s 30 sma coinciding 60 min price breaking below 2544 .. It’s “Curtains” Chief
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wrong.

    Given a 30 day cycle. 6 days before and 3 days after is 6 + 3 + 1 or 10 out of 30 probability that it will happen.

    so eight crashes = 1/3 ^ 8 or
    1 in 6,561. what a (math) idiot.

    Still, pretty good odds! LOL.

  • TimeToPanic

    Heh, perfect timing one hopes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Unlike lunar cycle crashes. Gartman is 100%.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Bears Dream come true…. So many juicy “Jaspers” to short on this dead kitty bounce
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Declining and poor volume is subtle distribution
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so what’s on the menu tomorrow?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HI GG Going to send this Mo Fo BAC to the promised land.Overbought printing a bearish harami cross.at resistance and 50% retracement and fib arc. We will nail SPX too ..I commented on a previous thread to watch the $SILVER pullback. GG You have any thoughts Natty Gas other than it smells and is explosive “BOOM ” LOL JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/035abb14747c4040c5aacebf84c887eaba977c72ea4548efd64477dfa6761d19.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it would be nice to see gold pop $20. on bad Trumpian news.

    Bring Yoda back to the flock.
    ๐Ÿ™‚

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c2742ffbe97e3ccd98f3845f61b65e987c9055dd56ca6eb9ccf00d33b2ab28f.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI… +1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    unsustainable. need a handle on that CUP of silver.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Where is Yoda ? Last time he disappeared he ran off with a real cutie green Yoda lady ! LOL! I think he caught who he was chasing ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Natty is the most wicked, unpredictable lady on the Market.
    you should ask RW.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    *full disclosure – I dumped my big XLE position.
    [NATGAS]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p6395724780c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG UNG right at a strong support daily chart. I stepped in with a small position IMO can go to 28 – 29
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Wouldn’t be the first time. There was this guys years ago. LoneWolf I think. He would do charts of ratios of ratios, with psychedelic colors.
    Found a girl, and disappeared. Groovy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No longer a Lone Wolf. Might have some pups by now ! Too much !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    crowded trade. that gap will be filled, not soon IMHO.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7520709817c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The $VIX like I said does not have to go to the bottom of Bol Band. 17% below it’s 10 ema is all that it needs.and it attaibed that Today a divergence between $VIX and the market. Market goes up and $VIX moving up slightly showing a little subtle fear. Takes a modicum fear to sustain a bear market love it GG !
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Thatโ€™s true Mole. I left early to pick up my daughter. I hate not being able to watch the close so I just closed it. I may jump back in this evening. The beauty of futures. But first I must do my post day analysis and gather my info from my trusted sources to plan tomorrow.

  • Darkthirty

    Just stay out of San Fransicko, heard they like gerbils there…โ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆ..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Tomorrow SPX wait for the close A bearish close below 2527 – 2530 and gonna put red lipstick on this pig .Going to be very busy tomorrow BUT will see the close. Possibly going to be our Chiefs a few weeks ago “RED PIG DOWN ”
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    About $75, if they go in the money tomorrow, about $7500

  • Wave_surfer

    Interesting..
    GG, I think that the point is not just that it is 6 days before and 3 days after a full moon.
    It includes an additional requirement on that full moon.
    “after a full moon that occurred within 6 weeks of a solar eclipse.”

  • Wave_surfer

    I think this brings up the question of whether we are dealing a ‘Specific to General’ fallacy.
    Let’s say that every crash happens near a full moon that happens after solar eclipse.
    It begs the other question: how many of full moons after a solar eclipse contain a crash? Is it 100%? 1%? 0.001%? That question also matter. I am pretty sure there have been more than 8 solar eclipses since 1637 (382 years!)

    Said in another, more extreme way.
    Every single day that the market lost more than 4% in a day happened on a day that exists on a Calendar.
    But that doesn’t mean that every day that exists on a Calendar will result in a market loss of more than 4%.

  • Wave_surfer

    I also wonder about the definition of solar eclipse, because as you look at it more closely, it can have a few definitions. There is a solar eclipse on the planet about 2 to 4 times a year, so that would be well more than 1,000 in the 382 years listed.

    That means that more than 1000 times was there a solar eclipse and then a lunar eclipse where there was NOT a crash.
    And 8 times, where there was one.

    Assuming there are no other problems with the description maybe the phrase to use is..
    Necessary but not sufficient.

  • Wave_surfer

    That is scary for my long. Time to tighten my stop-loss.
    Is he really 100%?
    Should we give up on all other technical analysis?
    As a serious question, is fading Gartman actually more effective than every other approach we use?

  • Wave_surfer

    I notice that the article listed says in the Heading that there are SIX solar eclipses in 2019. Then add in 6 days before and 3 days after the full moon that happens after that, and you end up with 60 days that can contain a crash or over 16% of all days in this year are painted with the broad brush of a crash could happen.

  • Wave_surfer

    If it travels slow enough through a volume hole, then the volume hole ends up getting filled in, right?
    I feel like a few times in the past, when there was a big volume hole and I thought it would either shoot up or fall down, but it ended up sauntering back and forth and filling in the hole.
    Sometimes, do volume holes like to be filled in, just as sometimes gaps like to be filled in?

  • Wave_surfer

    I agree that if buyers are drying up here, then sellers are drying up even more so.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, I caught that.
    but remember – correlation does not equal causation.

    https://pics.me.me/global-warming-vs-pirates-global-warming-pirates-time-pirates-27976414.png

    An eclipse has as much to do with the Markets as pirates to global warming.

  • TimeToPanic

    ‘…..a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full
    moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering
    device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology
    from manic greed to paranoia’

    We have it all this time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it was tough work for the bulls today.
    must be all that MT snow.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/video/cattle-brave-deep-snow-austria-60210327

  • Wave_surfer

    hehe… that too.
    Yes, correlation versus causation as well.

    However, if they are right and there have been Zero large crashes that occurred outside of the pattern of ‘full moon after solar eclipse’ in the last 350 years, that would be something worth keeping an eye on.

    I think a better issue is…
    All Dalmatians are dogs, but not all dogs are Dalmatians.
    If ALL 8 crashes in 350 years (it must only count REALLY big ones!) happen in that pattern, then maybe you are pretty safe from a once in 80 year crash if it is not happening.
    However, the pattern (lunar eclipse after solar eclipse) happened well over 1,000 times in the last 350 years and a crash happened only 8 times.
    And again, How big of a crash has to happen for it to register??
    Tulip Mania,
    The Great Depression
    Two Violent Depression Crashes happened right before the American Civil War.
    That is 4 right there and not counting DotCom or The Credit Crisis.
    Is a ‘small’ 30% crash in Dow considered a crash?

    oh, and in the last 40 years, there has been a big increase in Pirates! Cambodia/South East Asia and many other places.

  • Darkthirty

    Validity of the theory is destroyed by the Fed /algos/et al dominating the market…โ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆโ€ฆ.

  • evilasevildoes

    $BA is near strong resistance at the Yearly Pivots(YP), Qrtly Pivot(QP), 50 and 200day and gap($342).
    $335-$350=Strong Resistance.

  • Sp00nman

    I just went back and saw your post yesterday.. I’m also bearish because I feel we need a retest (or close to it) of the lows. I’m a believer that bottoms take a little more time to build. Yes we can have spike lows, but it’s not the norm and we usually put in more time near a low than one week.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi EV BA came down to it’s weekly 89 ema then bounced RSI at 40 too for the bounce Let’s watch at the weekly 21 ema at 336 matching closely your resistances. Good job EV JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64bdcb5104e79c04a9d9f430fb7b0d2846e509baa357fa3946b41401d4afe9a8.png

  • evilasevildoes

    never did ;ike Baby Powder made me throw up just smelling it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV BA Daily Chart YEAH ! Fib retracement confluence ; 55 ema As you pointed out strong resistance at 335 – 350 Overbought. Today a gap up that was sold into then an intraday reversal still closing below it’s open. Black candles overbought at a resistance Big Red Flag .. We can nail BA EV Again good eye ! Last Thursday was a distribution day finding support at a broken upper down trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/388a0e5e624de8ed5e470dc1978fa1241c0312493e6c9396cbe16dfc8c590c7a.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One day in the Gallatin Valley GG it was 20 below zero with a gusty wind . That temp with the winds Big Wind Chill factor. Crazy cows all facing into the wind.Not enough sense to at least turn around or even head for the barn Could not believe it
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX They can prop up the futures all they want. Still have the declining 34 and 55 ema’s to contend with. Daily and weekly MACD’s are below their respective center lines. Have fun Bulls. Short squeeze is over. Buyers better show up or going to fall under it’s own weight. Declining volume on rallies in a bear market is subtle distribution
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV I have a super important level at 1803 — Extending the blue trend line upward intersects closely
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO I want to buy a pullback. Possible pullback tomorrow if a bearish close below today’s low. Observe the increasing volume on the rally. That is what you want unlike the SPY volume patterns on the rallies since the dump from end of September. Weekly chart a morning star candle pattern. Also positive divergences on the daily chart usually mean an advance to the 55 or 89 ema’s The declining 55 ema looks like it will intersect the upper bollinger band JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc47b40832d1f7d455e03c8ba6e12328d97852339e7c9889c9fbd8e1ef737d64.png

  • evilasevildoes

    just a teeny scalp just now

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Understood EV. I scalp on the 5 and 10 min charts
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys An example how positive divergences on the daily chart can lead to an advance to the 55 or 89 ema’s JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c01062284c5182a8d8e75ae6c3714f8c27b9fed994e6b9860b8904dc1b9dc9df.png

  • BKXtoZERO
  • TimeToPanic

    The algos, I believe, will make any crash much worse. Machines are still pretty stupid, especially those programmed by humans.

    The Fed hasn’t prevented any crashes or bear markets since its inception, it’s a little man behind the curtain, pulling some little levers, wondering why nothing is happening to his design.

  • Darkthirty

    They have created the bull market for the past 10 years with no concern for moon cycles. You also might want to do some economic research on the manipulations leading up to recession/depression cycles. They all seem to be the same…..

  • TimeToPanic

    I think that everything is cyclical dt. Big cycles and small cycles.

    The central banks like the Fed are one-trick ponies, they can print and buy all the shit debt when the end of the road arrives, and that’s it. They don’t set interest rates, the market does. And they haven’t prevented dozens of recession since they were set up, with the explicit aim of….preventing recessions.

  • TimeToPanic

    NQ has reached the H&S neckline overnight, so entered shorts in my normal way 3x short ETF. Will be buying puts at the open or just afterwards. Good luck all (bears)!!

  • Darkthirty

    Read “creature from Jekyll island”, for starters. They do set interest rates. They do control liquidity. They do elevate asset prices (inflation). then they shut off loans (liquidity), causing a recession, then repurchase assets for pennies on the dollar, and begin the cycle again

  • TimeToPanic

    We’ll have to agree to disagree, except on the fact that they do assist asset prices when they print to buy them, a little bit.

    I watched short-term rates fall BTW, when the Fed first tweaked rates higher in 2015, the market headed lower. Likewise, every time they stopped QE for 7 years, rates rose, that’s a widely known fact, do your own research.

  • Darkthirty

    QE is liquidity given to fed reserve banks, no? If invested into the stock market, and not loaned out to the proles, I would assume that would be an asset assist? As they print $, the USD devalues?

  • TimeToPanic

    I agree QE has exacerbated an asset bubble. It has not affected rates, they don’t control any of the curve. They (and other central banks) did the same in the 1920s, it did not end well, one-trick ponies:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e39c111549499434256f68aed797e9f0bb5ada1d594c7f8568f40a6f651d5a7a.png

  • StockTalker

    This 10 yr rally was ounce in a lifetime, think we see a monster to finish her up. /YM30k fast and furious. Capitulation to the upside.