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Waffle’s Adventures
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Waffle’s Adventures

by The MoleMarch 18, 2009

One of my favorite rats is Mr. Waffle – he’s been working overtime to make the Zero work for himself and even has gone so far as to post tutorials in the forum.

Today he seemingly had a kick ass day trading the swings and we all wanted to know how he was able to leverage the Zero Lite. Fortunately for us Mr. Waffle is not just a talented trader but also appears to be technologically savvy as he put together a video of each of his trades today. This is a must watch for all you subscribers and maybe also for you guys thinking about joining:

Click here for Part 1

Click here for Part 2

Quite frankly, I’m not a day/swing trader but watching this I’m considering to throw a few contracts into the mix myself next week, just for shits and giggles. Of course the trick is knowing when we’ll get wider swings like that which is why I am watching the mole as well. When you see the bubble expand and increase in size as it did today you just know you’re going to have some movement. Plus, it was Wednesday of OPEX week, which traditionally is the busiest day. Thursday and Friday are most likely going to be a lot more subdue.

A big up to Mr. Waffle for putting this together – you totally rule, mate!

UPDATE 11:45pm EST: Okay, since I’m a workoholic and just finished updating my charts – here’s a quick preview ahead of tomorrow morning:

I am actually looking at two scenarios. Either we are in Primary {2} and thus plotting green or we might be tracing out that old blue scenario I was pimping until the beginning of February – remember that large blue flat?

That’s where we where when we discarded it after February 1st. We breached through 800 and thus assumed we were in 5 of (5) of {1}. Well, it’s possible that 944 was the peak of A of (4) of {1}, 666 was B, and that we are now in C.

However, none of that matters for the next few week(s) as the path seems to clearly favor the upside plus even if it’s a flat we’ll get five waves up. Short term we might push up a bit further tomorrow (maybe breaching 804) but sooner than later we’ll start consolidating – a good target would be the 750 range.

Anyway, this is all I have time for tonight – we’ll have plenty of time to digest all this in the coming two days. I expect the tape to be pretty boring.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I already updated the links above.

  • rhae

    very nice Mr. Waffle…

    just looking at daily trend lines on the S&P 500

    http://screencast.com/t/GgtXI34O3

  • slartybardfast

    Congrats waffle, your very own post, right here on the evil site.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Is everyone able to view the full video or having problem? Let me know I can redo the video.

  • molecool

    Please point this guy UP!!

  • yazzer

    +1

  • tradera

    can you point me up where I can learn about trading /NQ futures?

    I am with tdameritrade now

    Thank you

  • b_rad

    is it just me or do does it seem zoomed in so you cant really see the zero lite?

    Waffle – are you using the same size trailing stop everytime you enter a trade?

  • tradera

    Very nice video,

    Thank you

  • salvadorveiga

    i can only see the charts no zero… it seems the image is cut ?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    good for you Waffle. I don't see your mouse moving on Mole's Zero only on your position spread sheet. Are you moving your mouse on the Zero chart?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I figured. I will redo the videos tomorrow.

  • jamesk

    Waffle,

    That was a super helpful video. Thanks for taking the time to share. Thanks also to Mole for doing a post on this.

  • MikeT

    I have no problem with your videos…I can see it all, so dont thing this is an issue with the video.

  • Tecla

    Very nice! I may have to give that a try.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Video 3 short and sweet.

    for those not able to view the other 2 videos.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Twat_Waffle/fol

  • de3600

    Nice job eggo

  • Osso

    800 will be the half way between the next TOP and BOTTOM. SPX 1200 and 400…..a major pivot in both directions….

  • de3600

    Simple get a zero account and let that machine work for u

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle
  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    excellent waffle..

  • Fujisan

    Waffle, this is what it makes this community so great! Thank you so much for sharing. It's been pretty gloomy out here as a lot of people seem to have been hit pretty badly, but it's nice to know that someone is making money in this rally!

    PS – I'm curious if your trades always go as smoothly as today – have you ever experienced to be trapped in a whipsaw and ended up with losing them all?

  • maya

    very nice
    +1

  • tradera

    I have the zero account, Thank you.

    I know how to use google, I was just asking for more info about trading NQ futures.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    If I donโ€™t become greedy yes, I get out smooth. But the day I push it hard. I lose it. Use stop or trailing stop. One strategy I use is I set a stop on each trade once I am making profit I turn stop to trailing stop to at least get out of trade at BEP or with profit.

  • tradera

    The 2 videos were great on a big display, on a small laptop the cursor needs to be used.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Yup… i can see the mouse move on the Zero chart now . :0) +10 on the video

  • http://www.ryanbarr.com Covered (kzhat)

    Good job T. Waffle, very nice work on using the z-lite!

  • LeTrader

    Oh… The videos are back.. Thank you!

    Quick question – I was watching your video and it seems that you were trading with only the Zero Light signals, but not Zero itself. Should one not bother with the Zero then?

    Thank you for the videos, btw. They are excellent and congrats on a profitable day!

  • v8muscle

    wow man, nice trades!

    if I get some money after graduation I'm definitely going to try and trade NQ futures with the help of the Zero/Mole/ZLite. Right now I'm fully sold on it, but I can't make use out of it yet ๐Ÿ™

  • Duuuuuude

    Thanks for the videos. Why trade the NQ with the zero and not the ES?

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    thinkorswim.com is the popular futures/options broker around here

  • slartybardfast

    Fantastic videos T Waffle. The level of detail and explanation is excellent. Well done.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I started trading futures last month ES is very volatile. NQ is the best way to go when your new to futures.

  • Fujisan

    That's nice. One more question – are you really using ONLY zero indicators or do you use any other indicators on a side (you can tell me the truth – I'm going to keep it between us ;- ) )?

  • Erikd

    XLF breached the 7 month daily trendline today.. a close above the weekly resistance line from the nov lows and i will close all shorts friday EOW… http://screencast.com/t/J17ouK2e

  • GDII

    ๐Ÿ™‚
    what kind of answer are you expecting?

  • Duuuuuude

    So you find the NQ tracks close enough to the ES and Zero you don't get mixed signals? Thanks in advance.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I use MACD, William % ,RSI, Zero and Zero lite.
    Price and volume action.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    NQ follows ES in most case, if you see ES dropping 10 points NQ will give you enough time to position yourself before it drops 10 points.

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    Thanks Erik.

  • Artrader

    Thanks Erik,

  • salvadorveiga

    THIS is ridiculous….If I happened to be long from todays opening until the EOD I'd still had lost money… why? In euros, the SPX today went down…so I'd have lost money instead of gaining…Actually if someone shorted the SPX at opeining would've made money actuallly even though they're down 20 handles… lol crazy

  • gatortrader2k2

    GREAT trading and thank you for the videos Waffle! I just started coming to the site as Mole took the zero down so I didn't really get to see it in action like some others. These videos really help make the Zero sale. Is Mole the one I hear on tv with the – “buy, buy, buy… zero!” lol.

  • maple

    Turning Points: 'We completed Minor 3 of Intermediate (5) and are now pushing into Minor 4 which should terminate around 793ish. We must not breach 804.3 as a brach of Minor wave 1 is not permissible EWT' – high today was 803.04, close was 794.35. You are very precise, Mole. I still favor Mr. Blue, and only a margin call will change my perspective.

  • malusDiaz

    That's rough mate. I don't have a clue how hard it is.

    Good to see you back here!

  • GDII

    i thot you use fujiko indicator too. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • GDII

    thanks for sharing.
    i pick a lot of info from your videos. tkx a lot

  • az

    Erik, thanks for the update. Being a brutal day for the bears, especially financial bears, but we will be here to fight till the end.

  • molecool

    See above – blue is still a possibility but it's a remote one at this point. I will only bring it back if we drop below 700.

  • calibear

    Nice video T Waffle. I signed up tonight to give it a go. Thumbs up!

  • Erikd

    FAZ exit level friday http://screencast.com/t/X6wQq8zbPK

  • http://www.wallstreetblips.com Marny

    Weโ€™re Featuring Your Blog On WallStreetBlips.com

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  • http://www.wallstreetblips.com Marny

    Weโ€™re Featuring Your Blog On WallStreetBlips.com

    Hi There,

    WallStreetBlips.com captures the latest news, features, and video across the Web for a community of enthusiasts and professionals. We'd like to automatically include your posts in our story index and increase your traffic. Just click here to claim your blog: http://wallstreetblips.dailyradar.com/blog/the_

    The benefits:

    * Blog posts can be automatically submitted for homepage consideration
    * Boost your search engine ranking with additional inbound links

    Thanks for joining us.

    – Marny Bassett

    If you have questions about the blog-claiming process or ideas for additional traffic-building tools, weโ€™d love to hear from you.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    L!
    O!
    L!

    I guess that answers my question from a day ago : https://evilspeculator.com/?p=5289#comment-7278378

    You know… I hate it when I'm lookin' at somethin', know that I'm seeing… something, but just don't know exactly WTH it is that I'm lookin' at.
    Irritates me to no living end.
    Dumb f*ck.

  • Cross

    Thanks as usual Erik.

    If we do have to cover, would you be waiting for a retracement since the technicals are so overbought?

  • Ilya

    Can some one please enlighten me on how to get this Zero Lite for Ninja? Can you please email to ilyaben@gmail.com

  • v8muscle

    Here are some charts of the daily candles that I've been watching to size up where we are in the bigger picture:

    Currencies:
    -JPY/USD: Looks like the reversal @ the 50% fib line came true. Possibly bearish for the market since the Yen tanked through last year while we were heading down. CCI very bearish
    http://screencast.com/t/5dgcfGv8t
    -EUR/USD: Multi-month bull flag, just hit big time resistance and will likely reverse, but the momo is pretty strong so it could take it up a few points higher to the 38% fib level. CCI is very bearish right here. If it continues up to that level we'll be looking at a H&S to take it to new lows.
    http://screencast.com/t/CMkzkS5VVl

    Dow Transports:
    We appear to be approaching the resistance from January 6th, but we have a good shot at staying in the parallel channel we've been playing. CCI almost peaking, but not yet, and MACD could also roll over in the next few days and hold that downward channel as well.
    http://screencast.com/t/nP56Kjq6

    Put/Call Ratio:
    Put/Call is the most bullish we've been since this entire ordeal began in September.This is getting a little ridiculous, to say the least!
    http://screencast.com/t/e8toTnoqWu

    XLF:
    Although it has breached the 7 month long daily trendline, we're still in the regression channel with a TINY little bit of headroom. $9.75 or so should be the maximum the channel will allow without having to re-evaluate things. CCI is very overbought, and we've seen a pretty large selloff every time we've reached these levels since last April.
    http://screencast.com/t/L7LdAlUtvc

    QQQQ:
    The Nasdaq just got rejected by the 78.6% retracement level at 30.42. That level is going to be crucial because triple tops RARELY happen, and a 100% retracement of the pattern would be up if we break through that with any gusto. We're still looking kind of rangebound though and could hold the 25-30 range if we cant break out one way or another. CCI is overbought and has almost peaked, MACD could possibly reset and head down again. This is an excellent place to begin to enter short for a multi-week trade in my opinion.

    SPX:
    We're running into the resistance line dating back to January 6th right here, and the 38.2% fib level is only a few points above that which should provide even more resistance. The channel we've been in since 666 intersects with the Jan 6th resistance around 804-806, which should come either tomorrow or Friday, and if we take that out the crucial Fib level is around 814. Worst case scenario is that we run through all that supply and hit the brick wall at 860 (probably towards the end of this month), which is the multi-month resistance dating back to Nov 4th. That's highly unlikely, but you never know in this market.

    Summary & Short Term Outlook:
    -Indicators seem to all be topping out on the daily charts and we're running into resistance everywhere you go.
    -We look to have a tiny bit of room to the upside, but not much. Anything above 806 is VERY VERY dangerous to the ST bearish scenario, however there is a big fib level slightly higher than that.
    -The next couple days are crucial to hold this trend. If we rally more than a few % in the next couple days, its bad news for the bears.
    -We will probably retest the 800-805 on Thursday's trading, and there will likely be a huge reversal on Friday, especially since the bulls will take profits going into the weekend. You can almost count on a huge PM selloff, so be positioned accordingly.

    Bottom Line:
    -Add shorts from 795-805 with stops at 810-815

    Good luck going into tomorrow, and I hope you got something out of this because it took me f*cking forever to put together!

  • Fishrman

    AWESOME STUFF T!! Thanks!!

  • v8muscle

    Here are some charts of the daily candles that I've been watching to size up where we are in the bigger picture:

    Currencies:

    -JPY/USD: Looks like the reversal @ the 50% fib line came true. Possibly bearish for the market since the Yen tanked through last year while we were heading down. CCI very bearish
    http://screencast.com/t/5dgcfGv8t
    -EUR/USD: Multi-month bull flag, just hit big time resistance and will likely reverse, but the momo is pretty strong so it could take it up a few points higher to the 38% fib level. CCI is very bearish right here. If it continues up to that level we'll be looking at a H&S to take it to new lows.
    http://screencast.com/t/CMkzkS5VVl

    Dow Transports:
    We appear to be approaching the resistance from January 6th, but we have a good shot at staying in the parallel channel we've been playing. CCI almost peaking, but not yet, and MACD could also roll over in the next few days and hold that downward channel as well.
    http://screencast.com/t/nP56Kjq6

    Put/Call Ratio:
    Put/Call is the most bullish we've been since this entire ordeal began in September.This is getting a little ridiculous, to say the least!
    http://screencast.com/t/e8toTnoqWu

    XLF:
    Although it has breached the 7 month long daily trendline, we're still in the regression channel with a TINY little bit of headroom. $9.75 or so should be the maximum the channel will allow without having to re-evaluate things. CCI is very overbought, and we've seen a pretty large selloff every time we've reached these levels since last April.
    http://screencast.com/t/L7LdAlUtvc

    QQQQ:
    The Nasdaq just got rejected by the 78.6% retracement level at 30.42. That level is going to be crucial because triple tops RARELY happen, and a 100% retracement of the pattern would be up if we break through that with any gusto. We're still looking kind of rangebound though and could hold the 25-30 range if we cant break out one way or another. CCI is overbought and has almost peaked, MACD could possibly reset and head down again. This is an excellent place to begin to enter short for a multi-week trade in my opinion.

    SPX:
    We're running into the resistance line dating back to January 6th right here, and the 38.2% fib level is only a few points above that which should provide even more resistance. The channel we've been in since 666 intersects with the Jan 6th resistance around 804-806, which should come either tomorrow or Friday, and if we take that out the crucial Fib level is around 814. Worst case scenario is that we run through all that supply and hit the brick wall at 860 (probably towards the end of this month), which is the multi-month resistance dating back to Nov 4th. That's highly unlikely, but you never know in this market.

    Summary & Short Term Outlook:
    -Indicators seem to all be topping out on the daily charts and we're running into resistance everywhere you go.
    -We look to have a tiny bit of room to the upside, but not much. Anything above 806 is VERY VERY dangerous to the ST bearish scenario, however there is a big fib level slightly higher than that.
    -The next couple days are crucial to hold this trend. If we rally more than a few % in the next couple days, its bad news for the bears.
    -We will probably retest the 800-805 on Thursday's trading, and there will likely be a huge reversal on Friday, especially since the bulls will take profits going into the weekend. You can almost count on a huge PM selloff, so be positioned accordingly.

    Bottom Line:
    -Add shorts from 795-805 with stops at 810-815

    Good luck going into tomorrow, and I hope you got something out of this because it took me f*cking forever to put together!

  • LeTrader

    Thank you for the update.

    Slight modification to the home building process.. ๐Ÿ™‚ I am sure we can put in the basement another time. Time to build something else..

  • Peasant

    I've been wondering what would be an appropriate fundamental price target for some of these bank stocks so I decided to do a little research. First up is Citigroup.

    According to a S&P report, there are currently 5.476 billion shares of Citigroup and at today's close of $3.08/share it now has a market capitalization of $16.866 billion. There are preferred shares held by the U.S. Govt and private investors that are convertible into common at $3.25/share. If the U.S. Govt and private investors convert their preferred to common, it will reduce the existing shareholder equity to 26%.
    If C reaches $3.25 per share in the near future and these preferred shares are converted to common, then C will have total common shares outstanding of 21.062 billion shares and a market capitalization of $68.425 billion.

    That seems a little pricey for a company that lost $30 billion last year and has no forward earnings visibility whatsoever.

  • Skates

    Zero Lite and Zero Grande are Molecool's custom indicators, they are not available for Ninja…the only way you get to see them is if you subscribe…

  • v8muscle

    Summary & Short Term Outlook:
    -Indicators seem to all be topping out on the daily charts and we're running into resistance everywhere you go.
    -We look to have a tiny bit of room to the upside, but not much. Anything above 806 is VERY VERY dangerous to the ST bearish scenario, however there is a big fib level slightly higher than that.
    -The next couple days are crucial to hold this trend. If we rally more than a few % in the next couple days, its bad news for the bears.
    -We will probably retest the 800-805 on Thursday's trading, and there will likely be a huge reversal on Friday, especially since the bulls will take profits going into the weekend. You can almost count on a huge PM selloff, so be positioned accordingly.

    Bottom Line:
    -Add shorts from 795-805 with stops at 810-815
    Good luck going into tomorrow, and I hope you got something out of this because it took me f*cking forever to put together!

  • v8muscle

    QQQQ:
    The Nasdaq just got rejected by the 78.6% retracement level at 30.42. That level is going to be crucial because triple tops RARELY happen, and a 100% retracement of the pattern would be up if we break through that with any gusto. We're still looking kind of rangebound though and could hold the 25-30 range if we cant break out one way or another. CCI is overbought and has almost peaked, MACD could possibly reset and head down again. This is an excellent place to begin to enter short for a multi-week trade in my opinion.
    http://screencast.com/t/6DMmeKu2yQ

    SPX:
    We're running into the resistance line dating back to January 6th right here, and the 38.2% fib level is only a few points above that which should provide even more resistance. The channel we've been in since 666 intersects with the Jan 6th resistance around 804-806, which should come either tomorrow or Friday, and if we take that out the crucial Fib level is around 814. Worst case scenario is that we run through all that supply and hit the brick wall at 860 (probably towards the end of this month), which is the multi-month resistance dating back to Nov 4th. That's highly unlikely, but you never know in this market.
    http://screencast.com/t/kPBCppLX

  • v8muscle

    Dow Transports:
    We appear to be approaching the resistance from January 6th, but we have a good shot at staying in the parallel channel we've been playing. CCI almost peaking, but not yet, and MACD could also roll over in the next few days and hold that downward channel as well.
    http://screencast.com/t/nP56Kjq6

    Put/Call Ratio:
    Put/Call is the most bullish we've been since this entire ordeal began in September.This is getting a little ridiculous, to say the least!
    http://screencast.com/t/e8toTnoqWu

    XLF:
    Although it has breached the 7 month long daily trendline, we're still in the regression channel with a TINY little bit of headroom. $9.75 or so should be the maximum the channel will allow without having to re-evaluate things. CCI is very overbought, and we've seen a pretty large selloff every time we've reached these levels since last April.
    http://screencast.com/t/L7LdAlUtvc

  • v8muscle

    Here are some charts of the daily candles that I've been watching to size up where we are in the bigger picture:

    Currencies:
    -JPY/USD: Looks like the reversal @ the 50% fib line came true. Possibly bearish for the market since the Yen tanked through last year while we were heading down. CCI very bearish
    http://screencast.com/t/5dgcfGv8t
    -EUR/USD: Multi-month bull flag, just hit big time resistance and will likely reverse, but the momo is pretty strong so it could take it up a few points higher to the 38% fib level. CCI is very bearish right here. If it continues up to that level we'll be looking at a H&S to take it to new lows.
    http://screencast.com/t/CMkzkS5VVl

  • Jigsaw

    Does anyone recall a time when the McClellan Oscillator printed over +100 and we didn't get a correction of some degree?
    http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSum

  • Peasant

    nice work

  • bestefar

    OK, I’m looking at the site. How do I sign up for the ZERO? I can’t find where you subscribe.

  • http://forkoholic.com Forkoholic

    updated my Forkoholics Official count. Wave (3) has ended on March 6th
    http://forkoholic.com/officialcount.htm

    Looking at solunar chart the only other Bearish possibility I see what Wave 5 is an ABC and we finished just A of 5 and will start C of 5 in May

    Looks like next week will be a retracement to 750 or lower
    if we fill 830 gap by Fri/Mon 750 will be 50% from 666
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spxfork031809.jpg/

  • Fishrman

    Did a back of the envelope calculation. Here is what I found (i may be off by a bit on percentage but should be accurate to the 1%). On Wednesday,
    10.6% of nasdaq stocks hit 13 week highs, 13.875% hit 13 week lows. 3% of dow stocks-1 stock- hit 13 week highs. 10% of NYSE stocks hit 13 week lows. 10.2% of NYSE stocks hit 13 week highs. Do these numbers seem low or is it just me?

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Erik.

  • peterey

    My current snapshot at $SPX:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/SjYTqExbF

    Any comments welcome

  • jon

    hey fork you have dates for these tops /bottoms? looks like march 27 is a low???
    thanks , jon

  • jon

    sorry fork i forgot my email is jshallt@twcny.rr.com if you want to reply to previous
    thanks ,jon

  • Karl's Bro

    Nice chart. I still own some SH (inverse SPY). It too has a nice trend line that it is sitting upon. I need to look for an exit door.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Zero lite is good for intraday market direction, Zero gives you bigger picture about the over all trend.

  • http://www.myspace.com/ntl David

    Are the video's gone did I miss the buffet? This content is currently unavailable. Please contact the content owner for more information.

  • HardTimes

    I think I am signing up anyway, but the videos stopped working. Is it a bandwidth issue, and can they be hosted somewhere else?

  • Jigsaw

    If we did break the 805 level that would get a lot of people to start going long. So the 830 level would be perfect for a massive sell off. Great charts!

  • yazzer

    +1

  • Zeusmith

    Market might gap over yesterday’s high. A bear market rally of EPIC proportions!

  • C.C. Rider

    Nice chart. That's been my playbook from 700. The gap gets filled at 825.21 and a retest of the 740 to 750 area. The C leg then gets you to 900 to 910.

  • Zeusmith

    S&P might open open above yesterday high, and break Moley’s line in the sand. A Bear Market rally of EPIC proportions!

  • Fujisan

    I just noticed that USD/JPY is breaking out of the current uptrend channel (my chart updates only daily so it does not have the current movement). If it closes below the channel line, we could expect a possibility of a plunge all the way down to 85~80 yen.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Fuji-san/fo

  • alphahorn

    it's a true battle to determine which nation hates its currency the most

  • standard_and_poor

    Thursday Roadmap:The Fear
    http://www.screencast.com/t/4VjxDvng7C (don't read the charts see the movie).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FD-c6cx98ls

  • Lordted

    Hope you're enjoying your trip… Trip up has been scary…

  • alphahorn

    Nice chart as always S&P, but even though i'm positioned for the sell-off, i'm not convinced it happens today. For those who don't check out Cobra's site every night or morning I suggest you should. One thing he focuses on is CPC ratio and as we all know it's nuts right now. The confusion that sets in when it reaches these astronomically low levels is that a top is in place and we're headed down. Cobra has taught me that the first point is correct, but the second one is not associated with the first but with the CPCE ratio. Right now the CPCE (CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio) has plummeted to 0.54, last time it was this low was mid-September. But, what is important for a reversal is a pullback of this ratio to .60. At this level it crosses the downtrend line see the graph attached and the market will start to reverse. The pain in the tail part is that the CPCE graph is not available unitl 7:30 pm Eastern, so check it out intraday and think oh boy here we go (I found this out the hard way!).

    Moral of the story per Cobra is if we don't gap down rather significantly today, we could have another very strong day up tomorrow, which might hit some people's 830 projected top for this move. It seems the 804 level will be the key today and if it's breached I personally will expect a continue run to 830 before any pullback next Mon/Tues

    http://lh5.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/ScG-LXVak3I/A

  • standard_and_poor

    May the trading gods be on our side mates!

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I would go short here. I am already shot so not adding. but if you have cash go 25% short here.

  • v8muscle

    wow Look at gold today… up almost 8%!

  • standard_and_poor

    C (citicorp ) is up 25% this morning. Read my roadmap to determine how to take advantage.

  • Ilya

    Where do you get this ZERO indicator?

  • molecool

    NEW POST!

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks mate, always open to advice.

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks your Lordship.

  • Squidman

    I had waffles for breakfast. The food kind! Is that video going to be working again?–I never was able to get the link.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Yes Videos will be up tonight.

  • v8muscle

    fading quickly though. its been up 20% + every morning though. if you get it cheap it could be a good lotto play for tomorrow. I cant believe i ALMOST picked up some March 2.5 calls when it was a buck. I'm kicking myself for that one!

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Waffle, a post just for you! congrats…

  • standard_and_poor

    I'm having pancakes for breakfast also the food kind, pity.

  • molecool
  • mtst

    Hi E

    8.75 pullback rejected the movement today 9 is capping… is the volume telling you something? Just cause that level to get out tomorra must be painfull. Hard to believe we`re not going back to 750 spx but your 850/650 predition scares me a little…

    Thanks

  • http://greedangerignorance.blogspot.com DJ

    Erik, You are very knowledgeable on front month options, so let me ask you this question. I am holding all march put options on faz, xlf, spy and QID. All of them are worthless right now. Even though FAZ is 10% up today but call options have not moved even 0% on 65 and 85 calls. Do you think there is a chance of any miracle on these options even if FAZ stock price lets say jumps 30% today and another 30% tomorrow?

  • Cross

    The FAZ 65 ad 85 calls will unfortunately expire worthless. If FAZ close today at 30, it would take a 116% increase tomorrow to get to 65. That means XLF have to drop approximately 38% in one day. Very little chance of happening.

    I'm in the same boat with some SPY and FAZ options. The commission cost incur from selling them would be more than what they are worth. Sad reality.

  • WiredPirate

    Ecellent analysis V8. I am sure others appreciated it too but saw little to add because of your thoroughness.

    It happens all the time where some dumb shit post garners a bunch of responses and then a thoughtful, isightful and helpful post like this seemingly goes without notice.

    Well, I noticed and I am sure just going through the process was very good for your peace of mind in setting up or confirming your trades.

    Good luck and thanks again.

  • http://www.twelve02.com twelve02

    T. Waffle, what happened to the 'Zero' demos that you did? They seem to be missing from the site now…

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I need to re-upload them which I will do it tonight.

  • http://www.twelve02.com twelve02

    Thanks.

  • mtst

    Da beatch loves you ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Erikd

    we shall see tomorrow at 4p.m.

  • jigdaddy

    i love the fact that we closed beneath the 7 month trendline and didn't close above 2 days in a row…gives me a ray of hope

  • newtoncorp

    Thanks for the videos – but they aren't coming up anymore. Any thoughts?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I will post again later tonight.

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Thanks erikd. I saw that as well. I sure like it getting clubbed hard…

  • PolarPanda

    Hi Erik,

    I would just like to thank you for being a stand up guy in good or bad. It's been a great rollercoaster ride the last month since i was laidoff work and began to follow your insight and conviction.

    Please keep us updated and I will always remember 'plan the trade and trade the plan.'

    PS – I actually believe if the f@cking govt didn't intervene, your insight would be spot on. (ie – M2M, uptick, buying treasure, etc.)

    Thank you.

  • Erikd

    a down day today to end the week will confirm the bounce the last 2 weeks is over.IMV.. i see the market making new lows on this next trend down.lets see how we close this week today.

  • alphahorn

    How you holding up? I hope/trust you took decent profits off the table on the road to 666. Next couple of weeks should be interesting. I exited my FAZ at 118, but went back and remain heavily long FAZ in the mid 40s

  • Erikd

    doing fine, looking for the close today that confirms a downward ST trend is in place.and this bounce is contained.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    How you holding up? I hope/trust you took decent profits off the table on the road to 666. Next couple of weeks should be interesting. I exited my FAZ at 118, but went back and remain heavily long FAZ in the mid 40s

  • Erikd

    doing fine, looking for the close today that confirms a downward ST trend is in place.and this bounce is contained.

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