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Wake Up And Smell The Coffee
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Wake Up And Smell The Coffee

by The MoleOctober 9, 2018

Happy Controversial Day! Yup, I’m not even going to touch this one with a ten foot pole, as I’m getting mighty tired of the non-stop political drama we seem to be inundated with on a daily basis. So let’s talk markets then, shall we? Which is starting to look rather droopy and in the context with my momo update last Friday can be summarized by one simple chart:

First up, I tried to catch the low twice now and failed both times. Fortunately I employed very small position sizing (0.3%) as I was aware of the growing possibility of a medium term correction – again, see last Friday’s momo update, which is crucial to understanding what’s going on here.

Now the current formation once again is looking like a great entry opportunity but I’m going to give this one a miss as it’s becoming increasingly clear that we are painting a growing series of lower highs and lower lows. The support zone near 2878 (plus minus a few handles) has held thus far, but given the past two stop outs I now need to change my approach along with the market.

Which means that I can only be long if this series of LHs and LLs is being breached and that effectively puts my long entry threshold at around 2900. Yuppers, that’s a lot of juicy handles that are lost but the odds of success would be at least twice as good than chasing every single spike low that’s being dangled in front of our nose here. Bulltardism is real – you heard it here first.

To make sure you guys understand what I’m doing here: It’s alright to chase spike lows near inflection points as long as the odds support continuation of the overall trend. Once that changes you need to be aware that your low probability lottery tickets are going to become costly and may also lead you to engage in revenge or hopium based trading.

The best approach to counteract all this and also to retain your sanity is to simply leave it up to price to point the way. Right now it’s pointing lower and until it breaches one of the previous spike highs (and preferably retests it) long positions are off the table.

My only remaining open position (outside of the new entries below) right now is the DXY. And it continues to point higher – all hail King Dollar! Every tick lower over on the EUR/USD adds renewed vigor to my existence (and increases my spending limits).

Crude is looking like it may be ready to paint a spike low and continue higher. Quite frankly you will most likely be able to grab a better entry but I won’t be around when that happens so here we go. ISL < 73 which ought to keep bad spirits away (Halloween is coming – for now that is).

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Darkthirty

    Primary channel is about 2875 or so …………….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…its really more than just channel, too.

  • Darkthirty

    I’ll be 75′ up on parapets till dark, so here’s my WAG for today………2913 @4 PM 61.8 retrace AKA W2. Legal as 4 but that’d be bizarre

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HYG,
    10:38 Market time. a little early in the day, but this may be the support line.
    (It was a overhead ceiling in Feb/Mar).

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/630f99dc21b83999ba3fad710dcd484eac9c597577624dd0485d2d4c95062480.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its relative strength break is the most since 2016.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh it’s a doozy. today could be ‘just a pause’.

    I wish I had a crystal ball.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s the thing; we are getting a stacking-up of various market signs. These argue for negative outcome but can just as easily paint a great wall of worry for a 5th.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The bounce HYG exactly off the 89 ema per chart and comment posted last night. SPX now the bounce to a lower high to throw the kitchen sink at it short
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I pushed a beach ball under the water once, it was okay until it slipped out and popped me in the chin.
    that ‘was smart’. ouch.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I demand a close-up chart!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Same here, very slippery stuff.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX Equal Weight.
    definitely a shelf at this point in time.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXEW&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p72078451496

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    we should advertise our services.

    forum readers, throw out a symbol, and we chart-it-down.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX 3 bottoming tails including today indicates an approx 85% chance of a bounce. The bounce is off the 55 ema ; support and a lower trend line. Watch at approx 2901 (21ema) for the lower high. There could be a backtest of the broken lower trend line of the rising wedge if higher than the 21 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/04766a5a47febcdb72411faef410883aead8cc7c2ca4615d6f1529eeb7eab03c.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    2900 is my threshold as well. Bottom fishing can be done here but I got burned twice and need to err on the conservative side.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How many folks here actually read my daily updates? I am asking because I very rarely see any pertinent comments, especially when it comes to entries.

  • Yoda

    I do religiously every day

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief I am bearish oil too USO 16.04 resistance on minor bounce
    JULIE

  • Jay Thomas

    I do, but when what I have to say does not improve the silence…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I read them every day. Some of the longer involved ones II may read part of in the morning and think about the rest in more detail later that evening. I start out every morning by reading your posts sir! first thing I see while my eyes are still blurry some days.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I should start a cult. Pays well and the girls are easy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yikes…

  • BKXtoZERO

    and then I usually do the opposite LOL

  • ridingwaves

    all the time…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The bounce off the 13 ema to a lower high for a truncated 5th Sorry chief but there is a wave count from mid August. Will accept spanking for my transgression LOL ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e94b83bf3310e91d0fb12317ba027e349f8f4e43cfe30db95fb14c0721a691f7.png JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    I do….I watch mainly…not trading too often

  • Mark Shinnick

    Who really expects rally in here? I’m long for the time being….super tight and reverse.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    TAT – Tuirn around Tuesday? could be a day or 2 of upwards correction.. or sideways

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief The first thing I do …. Thanks Chief for the updates
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Expected some sort of bounce after all those VIX jumps…but, I think there’s still some downside to go…I have some shorts…I have some time…

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    same here turn on computer get trading windows open ES first then DJI SPX NAS RUT ck on new posts as day goes on my usual day

  • Mark Shinnick

    yes…its tempting to be short right now.

  • mSquare

    Buying IWM for rally with stop at $RUT $1615-ish, target $1710

  • Yoda

    Quite incredible to see the bounce stopping at ES 2900.
    I am getting more and more convinced that Mole moonlights as a time-traveller
    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Tiow2F9BkIw/maxresdefault.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What’s keeping ya?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I would expect no less…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Snort… I wish!

  • Ronebadger

    I don’t have to trade…I don’t need to trade…This is going sound dopey…but I like to watch (the markets, economy, politics, etc)

  • Toad

    Can you guys chart AMD for me? I can pay you guys with love and gratitude… Thanks for everything you guys do here at the lair!

  • Yoda
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Sharon Glad to hear from you. Hope everything is going well in your new home in Dallas. Been thinking about you and Bobby Low I hope Mary is doing ok and would like her to check in
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am hoping there is one…. all previous corrections I have gotten fancy and aggressive by exiting and re-entering. This time it was straight down so far. I am up for 3000ES too.

  • tradingmom

    I do! I’ve been lurking for years. I had to reset my disqus password to comment — I hope you appreciate my effort πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    MOM!
    need hug.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie, we have our first customer!
    he didn’t give a time frame.

    [AMD]
    limited upside IMHO
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cb3caccfcd8b1041debe24094bce8c5cfa08e704499993db958af432a92d800d.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Does he have a debit card GG ? LOL ! Nice chart GG SPX going down to the 89 ema to complete an impulse down AMD per your chart down to the next fan line to complete an impulse down. They must have debit cards GG or some form of payment LOL ! We are having fun GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Money!
    is that all you can think about?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Ronebadger

    MOM! See, Mom is watching as well…great to hear from you!

  • Ronebadger

    Prediction or wish or technical probability?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Whatever it is, something more interesting is danger close to happening.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not gonna happen.
    21 envelope bottom nearby.

    Market is prepositioned for Tuesday/Wednesday economic news.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c048c7f2b52624cf98992dc85bf5b3eb2b7216ca0fc8fb80c1d636b323b4c4f6.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Your lower red envelope matches my 89 ema
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hot πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Ronebadger Technical probability
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Again target for bounce 2901 posted earlier this a.m.At EOD may re short
    JULIE

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    a bit twilight zone at the moment but i am hanging in there should clear up by nov i am praying it is so all of you help me to get through my current days much happier than i might be thanks to all the lovely humor

  • tradingmom

    A couple weeks ago, my oldest came home and told me a story about a friend of hers who had a secret gerbil as a pet hiding in her closet. My daughter told the friend that if she came home with a secret pet not only would I know about it, I would be waiting inside the closet when she opened the door to try to hide it! So yes… I am always watching…

  • tradingmom

    What I’m really watching is the huge monthly divergence between RSI and price on SPX

  • bankwalker

    spankers lining up … please take a number and be patient … VERY patient ….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stats to back that up?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys MNKD A triangle Is this juicy or What ! ! A bullish close above 1.78 and we money up guys ! See the importance of the 89 ema Previously it was resistance and now support Let’s money up on this breakout Guys ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b6886ac9b0a5f59fbb016979efda34f783f84f9ac0999641eddffe94464a05b.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Charts Mark
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    That was just rhetorical, you know. πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I know Mark
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    read it every day since I found you Mole. Thanks for your efforts. Usually very busy at work during trading hours.

  • bankwalker

    Gerb? … in the closet? … never mind!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Mark Shinnick

    What’s going now actually appears tightly controlled.

  • ridingwaves

    vix is in contango..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Makes sense.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Thing is….sometimes, desperation proves-out as the right thing to do :/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    perfectly helpless.

    I can grab by the ponytail, and since her hands are in mittens, she can’t scratch my eyes out.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW EXAS Down to the 89 ema and filling the gap. Perhaps up to the 21 ema strong resistance. Must get above the declining 5 ema which is below the declining 21 ema .Again down to the 89 ema for a bearish impulse down Just saying RW
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/315bb234636f9126cf55526080aee47ac63e9681bfe1018478803d5a3480034d.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, I *am* Desperate!

  • ridingwaves

    no, but it does bode well for a spike low out of nowhere, opex this week?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You are remiss on the time check !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what can I say? technical team presentation in 1 hour.

    priorities!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Still waiting for my breach of 2900.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I may have to make a call…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Tell them about AMD ! ! Short the bounce to a lower high ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {face palm}

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Tell them too Got pin action going on ! You will be promoted immediately ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Re shorting small position slightly above 2901 is stop for now. Stop removed first 30 min of trading tomorrow will posibly re evaluate at close
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day. Good luck on your presentation GG
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He actually works for a living? Fo’ real?

  • BKXtoZERO

    The most patient bear would need to be cryogenically frozen to wait out this chart

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    why do you think MOle always says
    “keep it frosty”
    ;-D

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sir Mole…. What level gets you short?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Actually i never knew what that meant.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m just messin’ with’ya.

    amazing climb. of a Lifetime.

    https://ucrtoday.ucr.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Oh-Oxygen-603×400.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BTC.
    I think we’ve got it’s number.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33ed1ca858ea4aba5a70d4eb4f63d02c4bd620e71479b5d885291d4bd487e78d.png

    Then Ian remembered the words “Before the rooster crows, you will disown me three times.” And he went outside and wept bitterly.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The double top QQQ.’ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f3b93d58e162873ffe1a4b39510de25b1a42a810b2fb922ab4d707c14d530abc.png s measures approx to the 144 ema ; support and a lower parallel channel drawn JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that volume…..?……damning evidence?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the weekly QQQ’s haven’t hit RSI 50 yet.
    I’m not fully convinced.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG I too have noticed the volume and could be capitulation. If it does go down to the 144 ema or lower then a subsequent bounce on lower and declining volume is a shortsky to the 10th degree. Can’t wait for that action GG. That I call mySaks Fifth Ave.Trade GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The weekly 34 ema matches closely with the daily 144 ema and support and lower trend line of the parallel channel drawn on the daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99a2bfe0f778fd2b2be2cb342dd5609941b367c19f66f4c56fd0b98d071c2a7f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Getting ready to go long again. Down to 61.8% retracement and a lower trend line. Needs a bullish close above the 5 and 21 ema’s approx 13.61 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3c401a8c5a66b44b4d61209564277ce204d279eb94e6bef505b6b391c176259c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    AAPL If the negative divergences RSI and MACD play out true to form then AAPL down to the 55 ema matching a support and lower channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f96043f27eaf9afb85f6652c524241c7fd83b46efe7ec683f92be5f7ba4f7c49.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Resistance now 16.09 support 15.73
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    old Andre has USO at 17-17.5 in his latest….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I woke up last night completely disoriented and strange vertigo when I got up. The symptoms point toward Benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV) as I have had sinus problems over the past few weeks, which mostly affected my eyes and left ear, not my nose strangely.

    I’m a bit better this morning but still have some vertigo and can barely think straight. Not the kind of day when I want to be trading and clearly I’m not up to putting together a market update. I’ve taken some corticosteroids and hope I feel better tomorrow. Sorry guys…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Better look at Infection to inner ear Mole.

  • Edd

    Praying for your health Mole.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Possibility yes – unfortunately visiting doctors here in Spain is very time intensive and most of them suck.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pray harder!! πŸ˜‰

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm uncivilized…..de-civilized :/

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And loud…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero subs: I’m serving the Zero from my backup system today as I’ve got problems launching TOS on my VPS.

    (when it rains it pours)

  • Mark Shinnick

    re-nearing 2:1 volume SQQQ v TQQQ

  • bankwalker

    I’m beginning to smell a bottom …

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    don’t pick it..you’ll get smelly fingers

  • bankwalker

    no sh!t πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you may need some straight up flagellation!!!

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Osujo7_TsC0/hqdefault.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My wife is in charge of that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NOW right here is why I changed my approach yesterday as I was anticipating a consecutive LHLL scenario.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    I wonder if Julie shorted USO?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    most likely. I’m too lazy to scroll down to find out.

    apparently you are too.
    πŸ˜‰

  • bankwalker

    No I meant if she ACTUALLY shorted it vs. talking about it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, she usually pops in – in the next hour.

  • bankwalker

    a pretty strong rejection on the retest of 2851.

  • Ronebadger

    Bear Food

  • Ronebadger

    Heavy SPY volume for the first 1.5 hours

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BW Yes short USO from last week and re shorted SPX at close yesterday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX SMA80 coming up.

    -37 pts what a kick in the teeth.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27072146630

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like r2k is deteriorating at important local support there is mauling in progress.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HYG, contact.

    there’s room for a wee bit more.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22875146102

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m no knife catcher, but if *I was*..
    (end of impulse with relief bounce)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42001450072

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hey Chief Take as much time as needed. As others here prayers being made on you and your wife’s behalf. We love ya Chief !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Market open nearing two hours,
    NAZ leading the red team.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa5e525c02c45bb2ab5a6bc9efcab88fe035662032705975323ca38af9ca039b.png
    Europe Markets closing very soon.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, the Trump rally slope since 2016 for R2k is broken.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Just got up… What did I miss?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX,
    “When Markets move fast, grab a FibFan” β„’
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c17810b481d85d3190fe288a71a6c8f156647ab8cb4fd967b2e7d8c2cdc707f.png
    look left, that old high was VIOLATED.
    -GG

  • BKXtoZERO

    kicking ass Julie……………….. very nice!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Everything.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry about all the health issues over the past few weeks. It’s been a really shitty year health wise πŸ™

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just think, there’s a ton of DOW 27,000 hats, sitting somewhere in a warehouse.
    πŸ˜‰

  • bankwalker

    Congratulations to Julie … our trader of the week.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Darn going to be in a meeting for most of day Watch SPX at the 89 ema Remember any bounce will be to a shorter high for those not short Patience if not short. Since going to be absent most of daySPX 2886 is the magic number on a bounce I have stops in place USO and SPX
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this is a one year VIX chart.

    did you sleep in on February too?
    you would be batting 100.
    way to go AL.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98378585693

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long NUGT 12.3 and USLV 6.05. I totally blew my chance with TVIX this time….. I made 3$ out of 10 of this move…. so much for being the Ayatollah of TVIX. I have scalped in and out of every correction for years and always done well with that approach until this one. Sheeez, Al left his car on the tracks and it derailed Mole’s equity train.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I will be in back to back meetings for the next 2 hrs.
    so somebody feel free to take over!
    he he.

  • Darkthirty

    Bottom of the channel from april…….here’s the tell

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    no… I was wide awake for that one.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Earth to traders: NUGT is taking off…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Huhhh??

  • BKXtoZERO

    triple support at 12.1 held, 1 minute chart looks nice being above last little down sloping tend line from monday, Now with stocks wrecked, probably thought of at the very least a pause in rates if not reversal sooner than later

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mark, did you catch some of this TVIX move?

  • Yoda

    From the zero perspective, we have a positive div on both 60 min and 5 min time frames: bullish
    What bothers me however is that today’s down move is being done without participation, as if the tape is deliberately pushed down, triggering stops but doing so without any panic. Today’s low also does not coincides with a volume hole on ES. In short, this thing still stinks of fukry.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d0d010168743e1652036ba75a2885250762b16dfd250d1fbcaa2f85f42b0304.png

  • ridingwaves

    don’t put them away, this was so easy to call a surfer nailed it…

  • ridingwaves

    I should be working for a big house…..I’m so in tune with this market its unreal…

  • bankwalker

    and a blonde …

  • Ronebadger

    SPY volume still heavy though…

  • ridingwaves

    snp 100 sma 2822 great target or 2827 to close gap

  • ridingwaves

    that has country type song makings

  • Ronebadger

    Lightening up on SPX short position here…around 2840

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    DUST, is looking quite the opposite (obviously) but also reveals a head and shoulders pattern with topping tails on rt shoulder, also some possible dandruff….. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d8b39a38596d5a601a4785cf38dd4e3e3e9e7e679c0907e7c0b5545fb2c250d.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Only in labd

  • bankwalker

    up we go … for a bit …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shirley, you Jest!?

  • bankwalker

    H+S on VIX 3 minute chart

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    No equivalent damage to NDX; it merely met an objective, yet to go any further.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Your support is AKA wave 4 can’t overlap wave 1, but your terminology is politically correct here………….Amazing how that works! IF support is broken, what’s next?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    maybe RSI 30 was the objective?
    ..tag the red line tomorrow 7100?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p80267841772

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I would wait for a spike low on the hourly or a breach of 2850.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We hold the fort, no worries.

  • Mark Shinnick

    For that its a strict priceline, no derivative indicator.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Quick check in SPX Wow dropping more than I thought Blew down thru the 89 ema Next watchdog approx 2800 the 144 ema and another support zone.
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Never did lighten up…my target is in the 2800 area for this move…plenty of support there IMHO https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a27dc4ccf7b32efbe4d00c7e313e8dba68cf687388ba2ab8315e5004b08862b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB 2800 is what I have now too
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice job you crusty old bear!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Me too. I don’t mean I was sexually assaulted… I mean I too agree 2800 looks likely

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Yeah your earlier target 2806 on your chart below GOOD BK
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some initial sh objective 28.48

  • Ronebadger

    OK…now everyone knows 2800 is the target….so, that means it’s probably wrong…if EVERYONE knows

  • Mark Shinnick

    Should NDX break, could get interesting.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Taking some off the table short USO support 21 ema matching a support zone . corrective 3 waves down approx A = C Now back to meeting after a break Love it Guys
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB 2800 is also the lower Ichi Coud boundary on the daily chart closely matching the daily 144 ema and a support. The upper and lower cloud boundaries act as magnets per Ichi Cloud theory which is very accurate
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    OK…I’m taking that under advisement…I’ll probably reduce a third today…BUT, the SPX is just down 2%+…so NOW people are noticing a 2% day…might have some more downside leg…we’ll see…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB Not a bad idea to take some profit then watch for the objective target
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 2800 approx lower cloud boundary — 144 ema and a strong support JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/772b219c53647e3b50189d2680990b5056d4b22096448522daf74c9418b2c577.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    what level ? Looks like support around 7k..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its getting mauled into right around here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sell Rosh, buy Yom.
    %&^&(^@#!
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    -60 damn.
    do we have a bigger FIB?

    https://media.giphy.com/media/aCPh5TltgTUnC/giphy.gif

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sorry… My car stalled on the tracks and I left it. I didn’t know it would cause all of this destruction. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/287fefb967a924f57f51c27d307b4107ff8d2d48b5219c5f9869444a66cf1691.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    I had that line 2 hours ago!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    VWAP @ 2850 PPT shows up at 2815?

  • Ronebadger

    VIX up 30%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    *I* didn’t know.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    careful, you’ll give BK a woodie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    34%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    reminds me of:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njwf1FZ-l4k

    put your stub bids in rats.

  • bankwalker

    I was short when that happened … so happy my face hurt from smiling so hard. I got called into a meeting and when I came out had given it all back.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what a story.

    I was long option calls, and just walked away.
    ..figured it was WW3 with missiles inbound.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nearing a sh objective.

  • randomuser6789

    clearly the weirdest Zero signal I have seen as a sub. Struggling to believe the lack of participation.

  • bankwalker

    That announcer is awesome.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe something more is needed to lay groundwork for a 5th?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A day like this could bring in the old traders to the forum.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Kudra!

  • BKXtoZERO

    So is this where we go short πŸ™‚

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    true.

  • Yoda

    Yeah better to discard divergences on such day, but still the relative shallowness and then flatness of the signal today reveals something interesting: there is no rush for the exit yet.

  • Ronebadger

    Fearless

  • Ronebadger

    Since 2PM, the tick has been in the -1000s

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…the Trump rally could be over I suppose.

  • HD

    Silly bears. 2018 now has 12% crash, 9% crash and 5% crash. SPX (+ 4% YTD) sitting on April-May TL 2804, 2800 below and then the 200DMA and YTD range fibs.

    The previous major wave down was 3 weeks. June

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Was it a 3% type day?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time. Check.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX two months of gains lost i approx one week. The old adage staircase up elevator down
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Covered 1/3 of my short position around 2805

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    problem is, they usually push the down button while I’m sleeping.
    son’s of b!tchez.

  • ridingwaves

    Still have most my Longs and made a bundle on tvix today

    Contango is a bee with itch

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB I too am taking profit Tomorrow I will be in meetings all day tomorrow too and unlikely to moniitor
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    sh objective damm close

  • HD

    Some of us have been thinking all year this bull market is about to end.

  • Ronebadger
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Mark My original objective was the 89 ema and a support. Broke down thru like a knife thru butter Alternate target was the 144 ema matching a support approx 2800 which now has been met
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    You ROCK Dude… Your day in the sun for sure…. now back to the closet!

  • Mark Shinnick

    There it is, lock some in tightly.

  • bankwalker

    Seasonally the most bullish time of year is just ahead of us.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice…. I told you I didn’t think the election rally thing was a sure bet.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Are conditions for 5th still intact?

  • Ronebadger

    OK, now 2/3 covered…. 1/3 riding…I’m usually too early though…

  • ridingwaves

    It hasn’t changed my thinking on rally, it now has juice

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I mentioned in a post below in a reply to you that you had the 2806 – 2800 target also . Good job BK
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    VIX up 40%+ makes my head swim…alas, I no long play the TVIX or UVXY

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW IMO A bounce or rally to a lower high … Now a correction Just saying RW as the red flags were in place and the canaries were chirping louder each day
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB Too volatile for me I stick with individual stocks ; oil and the indices
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    such a blonde.

    canaries die. die! when they are DEAD, it’s a problem.
    you’ve got it inversed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this too shall pass.

  • ridingwaves

    Not worried too much, op-ex and contango were too juicy

  • HD

    No. Overlapped W1

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….Whew…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Not sure if anyone has noticed Today down to the 38.2% retracement from the February low to the September high
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MNKD still holding the 55 ema
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4718b9ad5fb87108665f11c7c86ddf9ba829122fe556defed328ebc39152ea17.png looking at 64 – 66 for a bounce The decline looks impulsive so any rally or bounce should be to a lower high JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bulls have been served.
    Well played bears, well played.

    and just in case someone might accuse me of fitting the blue line.
    I’ve been using last years November (election) low as the measure.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f178375b729ddb0018ca6a448f749faf29f1ab1828085d13ec2a4eae57dd590.png

  • Yoda

    Amokta!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So true.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How did you get that picture of my mother-in-law?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Hope you are feeling better…. Nice call on the 2900 ES Chief I basically had it close on the Cash
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Does anyone think that IBD will call today a distribution day.! Too Much !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Watch tomorrow BAC The Big Dog of Banking. Down to a lower trend line and the 61.8% retracement JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/354c44dc782ca2ffbd87c1fb0a8b85238c1dec57f0e70500eb9fc186089a829f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Still bullish SLV An inverted head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart. Holding the 61.8% retracement. Needs a bullish close above the lower blue dotted trend line Now back to meeting rest of day. Meetings tomorrow also so unlikely to post https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6c64f8035657285ec19329ef0927242dfcdeb7457a93be7b70e60770191cdd7d.png JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Going to add longs after the 30 yr auction tomorrow….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Blasphemy!

  • Mark Shinnick

    You know…its not really like that :/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I tease. that’s my job here as an AI Evil ChatBot.

    I did make the Understatement-of-The-Year.
    don’t you think?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f44e3e9836e66f5d02d4ec84318fa22d15ccd8408e2d6f7e43ee07f8bd148005.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how about the VIP hedgies thing?

  • BKXtoZERO

    It just keeps going….. Wow. Maybe the 4th idea some have is ooot the window

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gold bitchez making their move! Glad to be on the bus….. Back to zzzzzzzzz

  • Ronebadger

    This morning’s reading …it doesn’t get much lower than this…or stay this low for long https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4ecf9be01a390bf51a84238ed7e6bfd386671e2fb519029da897a0454bf25b7.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    too many bottom pickers

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    looks like a flash crash

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    PPT (Trump) will step in..