Now Reading
Wanderlust
115

Wanderlust

by The MoleMarch 8, 2019

Although eye catching the title of this post is a bit misleading. Wanderlust in German actually means ‘the desire to travel (wander)’ – to leave behind the comforts of your home and to deliver yourself to the mercy of the great unknown. That’s not exactly how I’m feeling right now, especially since spring arrived early here in Valencia, bringing with it warm weather via the soothing rays of Mediterranean sunshine.

However as the ides of March approach rapidly festivities revolving around the celebrations of Las Fallas are quickly starting to pick up steam. Meanwhile thousands of sun starved Northern Europeans are flocking into the city every day in anticipation of participating in 10 days of unmitigated debauchery and licentiousness.

I know what you’re thinking: What’s your problem? That sounds like a ton of fun, you crusty old market mole!

Agreed! Once or twice perhaps, but not if you live smack middle of what’s considered Las Fallas Central. So like every year post 2014 we, along with thousands of other sleep deprived Valencianos, are fleeing the city in droves, only to return after the final day of Las Fallas.

Sète, France

This year we are heading to the French Riviera in order to spend a few days with my wife’s parents. They are actually quite tolerable and a lot of fun to be around, so we expect to have a blast. The second half of the trip we are scheduled to spend at a remote 17th century castle in the middle of a wildlife preserve. I’m already looking forward to rubbing it in that our building precedes theirs by a whole century πŸ˜‰

Le Chateau – it’s been renovated ever since that picture.

On the downside the weather is supposed to royally suck as the region is expecting some snowfall at best and most likely several days of rain. Which means we had to break out all of our winter clothing again: jackets, boots, gloves, sweaters, wool bini, etc. Honestly I am hoping for snow with bouts of sunshine as I don’t mind winter as long as it’s not constantly gray and soggy outside.

Posting Schedule

In case you are wondering – and I know you are: I plan to post brief updates next Monday through Wednesday as allegedly there’s great Internet connectivity near the coast. The situation at the castle is a bit more uncertain. Word has it that the local routers and cell towers are solar based, which means a day or two without sunshine and there is no Internet access. Crikey!!

Initially this was a concern of mine when planning my trip but in the end I realized that I had not spent a single day offline since I started this blog way back in 2008. Every vacation destination had to be planned in anticipation of having access, and quite frankly it was really getting to me. At least for me its impossible to completely disconnect and enjoy a change of pace whilst jacked into the matrix.

Tony To The Rescue

So to remedy the situation I blackmailed talked my quant buddy Tony into posting during those days. Which means most likely he’ll show up here next Thursday the 14th through Wednesday the 20th. Perhaps not every day but the material he’s planning to put together is aimed at introducing you to the world of professional quant trading and how it differs from retail trading.

And not from a purely theoretical perspective either, but coming from someone who’s a partner at a proprietary trading firm in Chicago. That’s a rare treat and I strongly suggest you sharpen your pencils and pay close attention to the stuff he’s volunteered to share here.

Alright quick update on the markets. The E-Mini has now rolled into the June contract, and apparently it’s not off to a good start. Clearly the big wall at ES 2800 once again proved too much to handle Β for the 5th time in a row, and now it’s time to pay the price for such an ignominious defeat.

A retest of ES 2675 is most definitely in the cards here, so unless you’re short already (congrats if you are) I suggest you treat carefully and bite your time.

The DX campaign reached my target range a few hours ago and since I’m traveling I decided to exit at the 3R mark and await new instructions.

One more for the road: The EUR/USD has dropped to < 1.12 this morning and is currently staging a bit of a snap back. Judging by the daily panel this is a crucial support zone for the EUR and continuation lower could easily trigger panic selling.

Excellent timing for me as I’ll be spending Euros up in France πŸ™‚

Video Time!

I have been producing some video content over the past year, some of which will be available here at Evil Speculator in the not so distant future. But I also plan on doing a lot more off-the-cuff point and shoot content which is why I’ve put together a little portable mini setup:

Here it is in all its glory. It’s a Zhiyun Smooth 4 gimbal I’ve strapped a RØDE mic and an LED panel to. All I need to do is to snap my phone to the clip on top and I’m ready to roll.

So if I feel inspired I may just post a few video clips during my travels, assuming the weather holds up. See you on the other side!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • evilasevildoes

    nice pics! employment through the floor

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • Jason13

    Someone may want to kill the dollar….

  • HD

    Safe travels Mr. Mole dude. Enjoy the time away from the charts.
    I’ll be gone too. MX, some beach…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5ab8dd25e0c32546acac247d7a652f6f969736a63793f7779877d21a98d77be2.jpg

  • HD

    SPX gapped below the 2732 S. Spicy

  • zzezzezz

    long /ES

  • zzezzezz

    Jim Cramer on CNBC: “Too early to call a bottom”
    πŸ™‚

  • TradingGangster

    Good morning – I’m looking forward to flexing my blogging skills a bit while Mole is sunning in the south of France.

  • BobbyLow

    Welcome TG. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    be careful, I’ve been itching to try out this ban hammer.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Sp00nman

    Safe travels Sir Mole. Enjoy the time away unplugged! It certainly is liberating to unplug from the matrix and get some time away. Mentally it’s good for everyone.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Wheeeee,
    I love it when Mole travels.

    almost better than moon cycles.
    πŸ˜‰
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51a0065d14fa90fb5003101476dbee115db71fcd03c33373646724c6809ca8a0.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “CVS is cheap”. Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no bikinis, GG disapproved.

  • Sp00nman

    Here’s a bigger picture of where we are. We filled one gap yesterday and
    still have a few more below us. Maybe we’re finally getting that move
    to the other side of “balance” at ~2630s? From what I’m seeing we
    definitely have the possibility of things getting exciting. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8be1132a8b4a781f3598c69362be82da0457b0d556e85bd1f6119ae005d7b26e.png

  • Ronebadger

    It would have been nice with more of a heads-up.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s the problem with International booty-calls.
    (the parents story is just a ruse)

    strike while the iron’s hot.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Finally!

    Over the past 9 Trading Days, my system has produced 4 Losses in a row for a combined -1.9R Loss trading crude. The only saving grace of this slump comes from previous back and forward testing that demonstrated losing streaks exactly like this one. This slump was not a surprise but it still sucked.

    I went short Crude on Weds and was prepared to get whacked again but it looks like this trade might have some legs and the potential to more than take care of the losing streak. We’re a long way from closing but as Ed Seykota says “One good trend pays for them all”.

    Looks like stalking the Financials also paid off (at least so far). The previous “Chinks in the armor” that I saw might be beginnng to turn into Chunks. (Still holding 3X Short FAZ)

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of final TVIX 35.24 from yesterday pullback 32.5

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    You were wondering about different VPOC values the other day. With the four bottom candles you can clearly see that volume for the time frame candle (day) is aggregated and distributed equally for the day’s range. So using smaller time frames gives different profiles.
    The VPOC using tick data is 2731.50
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7af5f70514193fce11713b24829f17b61b040fffad8c29da10d04a3552097fa.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long Crude via UWT 14.1

  • Yoda

    Ha! You wouldn’t pay me to stay overnight in that castle.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    VPOC?

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks xenoson. That makes sense. With tick data that’s obviously the most accurate whereas with 30min/1hr/daily it’s not as exact.

  • Sp00nman

    Volume point of control, it’s a term used by market profile methodology. It’s the highest volume traded price.

  • Darkthirty

    Thanks! Sorry for being a dumbass, I just can’t seem to keep up with all the abbreviations / acronyms lately.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bulls need to get above 2741…. I see a little rounded bottom possible but bound by short term trendline https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6483edb7445911a1ab8c8bbbb5b1faa3774627983378bf7b4b966a4270084855.jpg

  • bankwalker

    little rounded bottoms can be wonderful …

  • BKXtoZERO

    resolution soon…. 1.5 hour rising wedgie poo attempt up into downtrend line

  • Sp00nman

    Ya, or we just continue to chop sideways today.

  • Darkthirty

    Gap isn’t filled, but tempted to go short on margin. Trying to justify it right now……….

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    You don’t want it to enter prior day’s range on an outside day.

  • Darkthirty

    need a new low on the day

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO πŸ™‚

    I hope it’s not haunted!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Your French needs work!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    As I’ve always said: I’m happy to travel all year if you guys pick up the expenses πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you sir – at least ONE person is going to miss me it seems πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey Tony – thanks again for helping out. Don’t hesitate to whip them into shape if they start misbehaving!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NICE!!! Where is that?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Uuuuhhh… that’s what’s in my bank accounts, so I hope NOT!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, sounds like nobody is going to miss me much. EXCELLENT!! πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice post. I look forward to the videos.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Short TVIX at 36.28 (in my mind)

  • zzezzezz

    any thoughts around potential bounce levels on ES/SPX?
    i’m looking at SPX 2721, 2711, 2703

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX moving stop down to 2735
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Well I’m short and when you go on vacation the market usually tanks so I have mixed emotion. πŸ™‚

    BTW, I almost forgot to compliment you on your writing style. In this morning’s post, the way you described where you are and where you’re going I was almost there with you. Have a great time.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Cash posted yesterday below 2735 …. 2728 – 2724 – 2717 – 2705
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Thank you!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A Castle … You mean our Chief is a “KING” Have a great time Chief !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Can you post a video of your neighborhood and a little from vacation? That would be cool.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I mean “KING” …. You will always be our “CHIEF”
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of CL long UWTI, quick 3.6% 12.10 to 12.59

  • HD

    Playa Encanto.

  • HD

    Sometimes a low on Friday before OPEX.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, will do.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wow, so much praise – I can’t take it!!! πŸ˜‰

    Thanks Bobby, much obliged.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m leaving Sunday – that’s almost three days!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love empty beaches.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll make sure to record the crowning ceremony.

  • BobbyLow

    Nice quick hit. I’m on the other side and this current comeback is cause for concern. If price keeps coming back, I might have to either reduce my short position or even possibly flip it while I’m still in profit. BTW, I thought you were in UWT that replaced UWTI.

  • BKXtoZERO

    ya, I keep calling it UWT “I” when that is long gone. It is UWT and DWT these days. I like oil because like you said there are opposing forces tugging so it is volatile enough to be rewarding quickly. On daily moves, much harder.

  • BKXtoZERO

    It is my off Friday so I am over and oot. Heading out with my daughter. Only hold I have is DRV.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Have A Nice Weekend BK
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Indeed. all of them, matter of fact.

    http://www.booksbyboxer.com/giftbooks/YHU0252-1.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Gotcha. I’ve already taken 1/2 of my short crude off and it looks like the other half might be gone before the COB.

    My price action is much slower now because I’m working off 3 Hour Candles. This allows me to get into deep extended runs but when we get into large opposing candles like we’ve had in recent days, it really sucks. This morning began with a very promissing start only to end up as a C T. I’ll be lucky to end up with only about a +.3 R Gain but that’s still better than a loss I suppose.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Positive divergences on 30 min but not on 60 min
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ve got this long swing trade entry.
    $128’ish target.

    might work, might not.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/82633783edfdf368873b9c0b8412f617a15aa96a77e78d1ff49f97fdb2b92f22.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Pattern Update, bulls finally got off their asses…. pretty obvious pattern. Left money on the table w/ UWT because bulls were feigning death so long that I just took it off. My imaginary TVIX short from 36.28 I will take off now at 34.5. I WISH I COULD short TVIX…. far easier trading without one hand tied behind my back.

  • zzezzezz

    rally into the close? or suckers rally?

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nice chart. +1

    give us a 15m chart with a fibonacci? + 3

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX I let my stop take me out — Stopped out of short 2735 Not going long yet Do not want to hold position over weekend Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    ahhhh I eyeball stuff. I leave it to you and Julie to do all that fancy stuff

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s a nice chart because of the wiggle around the RSI 50 AND the setup on the bollinger median, pulled back to median as support, and then up it went.

  • HD

    17 handle rally! you guys have a good weekend!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oversold daily and 60 min charts Very close to 55 ema and RSI @ 45 Also very close at level 2724 Positive above 2735 (Level 1) Not greedy Have A Great Weekend ZZ
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    37 degrees in Seattle, cold dank to your bones kind of day, never made it out but we are heading…….. TO THE INDIAN BUFFET now. se y’all

  • zzezzezz

    meh… i’ll go for a long scalp at/if VWAP touch

  • Jason13

    Seems the power of β€œFriday” rules over any dismal jobs number. Enjoy the weekend Julie.

  • Sp00nman

    Hard to say, but all we did was a poke at yesterday’s range and now back below. Staying out of yesterday’s range is bearish. Really nice trade off of yesterday’s low, I missed it.

  • Sp00nman

    Interesting how sentiment seems to change so quickly. Apparently Xi cancelled the meeting at Mar-a-lago for March, and recent news seems to suggest that a trade deal is hardly in the bag. Apparently China is not willing to give up too much in a deal. Shocker.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    We’d have rather known at ES 2800…

  • mSquare

    Likely a good idea. Not down as much as other Oils in spite of Norway 1T fund divesting Oil stocks news.

    What stop would you put on this – today’s low in $119s or the first fib in $117s as in your chart?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You too Jason Yes Fridays usually have a neutral to positive bias
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I heard a good analysis recently by a local economist that pointed out that Xi is president for life, so he can afford to wait out any US administration. Made a lot of sense to me.

  • Sp00nman

    Yup for sure. If there’s anything China seems to have it’s patience. They’re playing the very long game. Unfortunately the West is very short-sighted these days with our planning.. heck look at our huge annual deficits.

    I’ve read some interesting theories regarding China, but there’s little question they are taking dollars from the trade deficits and making smart long term investments in Africa and many parts of the world buying up assets.

  • Jason13

    They have the upper hand in the negotiations. They can afford the slowdown both fiscally and mentally than a certain POTUS. Xi has no political downfall. There will be huge concessions given up by the US. Guaranteed.

  • zzezzezz

    went long on VWAP touch, tight stops just below VWAP, otherwise will sell before close

  • Sp00nman

    Yup for sure. Trump wanted to try to make trade with China more balanced, which many people agree with, but he didn’t foresee that it would take time and perhaps some short term pain.. He’s too emotionally attached to the equity markets to be effective.

  • BobbyLow

    Well what a change of events. I’m now long Crude via UCO but still short Financials via FAZ.

    Nobody ever said this stuff was going to be easy and if they did they were lying. πŸ™‚

    Have a great WE everyone.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL You Have A Great Weekend Also
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Where is GG with the time check ? Oh GG !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    just went long small caps

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no more time checks.

    GG has changed.

  • zzezzezz

    sold. 100% cash

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Ted Going to wait for Monday SPX Looking for a pullback on 10 min chart Looks impulsive off today’s low 2722 Have A Great weekend Ted

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Can’t change the color of a Gerbil LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    for me, the $119
    there was a few days the open of FEB, and then it stumbled after that level.

    so a risk of $1 to a reward of $8.

  • zzezzezz

    also, we closed just below the 200 SMA

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ZZ 2735 very important Confirmation tho is 60 min MACD 5,34,5 going above it’s center line.IMO A bounce to a lower high Possible target approx 2770 matching (1) 60 min 55 ema (2) Daily Ichi Coud conversion line (8) (3) 50% retracement (4) 60 min Ichi Coud boundarySomething to watch for on bounce
    JULIE

  • Ted

    I must be nuts since Mole is traveling! Have a great weekend as well. Purely a bollinger band play as well as commentary posted yesterday about an interview with Tom Mccllelan.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s about the temperature we expect late next week up in France.

  • zzezzezz

    great insight, thank you!

  • zzezzezz
  • Ronebadger

    IF, IF, we are wanking waves…then I have the tomorrow’s topping area for #4 (assuming a nice channel) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f0d977d4c873c32aa9435731fd5d6eae7fbd19948d238fd05c6efe13e9199f8.png

  • evilasevildoes

    dont forget 60 min with fed reserve gang

  • zzezzezz

    I like it. …and then a drop to 2700 after that πŸ™‚

  • Ronebadger

    It never works out perfectly…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NEW POST!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It never works. EWT that is. Period.