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We Made It Through – Sort Of
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We Made It Through – Sort Of

by The MoleOctober 14, 2019

It’s Monday so it’s time again to take a look at the statistics for week #42. By the way last week did end up in the plus but barely so, and it took the long way to get there. So pretty much what we anticipated based on the historical stats. Now let’s see if we’re in for a smoother ride this week:

At first glance we are and it seems we finally made it through the annual valley of the shadow of death spanning between week #30 and week #41. Although anything is possible at any time in the financial markets we do seem to have the wind in our backs until the EOY. Except of course week #50 but we’ll cover that once we get there.

Percent % stats are looking solid at 65% – I’d take those odds!

Trading range is elevated – as a matter of fact week #42 has the third widest range of the year. So let’s dig a bit deeper here:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Yuki, the winner of 2018 Boston Marathon. The weather was horrific. temps in the forties and rain and howling winds. the race was so bad it took an extra half hour to complete. My best friend ran it. Tough SOB.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 12.46 on the day

  • BKXtoZERO

    ooot of UGAZ 13.86

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I know – why would they schedule a marathon in or around Boston is beyond me. Arizona in April – now that’s more like it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ooot 12.26 for small ding, was playing against 2 intraday spike highs, and 2971 level

  • HD

    2960 trading

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying again, 12.20, tight stop TVIX

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • pepe

    Sold UNG calls for a 50% return on today’s pop. Back in USO at $11.06 for a swing trade.

  • pepe

    My hip surgeon has offered to sponsor a Marathon for me as he thought it would make good marketing. My physiotherapist recommended Berlin as it’s flat and cool. But 42 km, man. Kudos to those who can and do but I’m happier in the ocean. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    under “Did you know?” – Marathoner finish times are skewed.

    http://runningmania.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=47101

  • pepe

    RSI/price divergence in DOCU. Looks overbought. Could be a good short. Watching.

  • BKXtoZERO

    LOL… I am an Eagles fan too and that is just like TVIX… 1 Superbowl win and besides that, a life of pain.

  • BKXtoZERO

    glad I sold the pop. Eyeing UGAZ again at 12.9 area

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Long UGAZ again, 13.13

  • pepe

    Yes, me too. But I had to remind myself why I bought UNG on Friday โ€“ for a potential pop. Now back in long for the third ride. Still bullish on both natural gas and crude oil.

  • pepe

    UNG back above 5-EMA on above average volume. And USO printing a hammer w/ resistance at $11.18.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Pepe Yes 5 ema a great filter
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    What would fool the most market participants??

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Talk about athletes in great condition. Cross country skiers … Watch them race. Not an ounce of fat on any of them
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    FWIW…. looks like a so-short-able island….but, that’s so friggin’ obvious to everyone.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    don’t forget falling err shooting stars, EVERYWHERE.

    Tim Knight is my contra-indicator.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-10-12/good-heavens

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s that Tuna on Toast.

    BTW, Lunch Time!

  • Mark Shinnick

    He did a nice job there ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Too quiet…Columbus Day? No bond players
    Paint dry

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Even more impressive is biathlon, IMO.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, the vol people are getting slo-knifed…as usual.

  • pepe

    Back from surfing. Shorting DOCU at $67.48.Target $63 and change.

    Hammer on UNG looks great as all the other bullish reversal signs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch. Sleepy Market! wake-up!

    UV Index – Theta Burn
    https://vimeo.com/31836365

  • Mark Shinnick

    Come in RW.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A touching story.
    for runners, gold miners, & general pet lovers.

    https://www.runnersworld.com/trail-running/a29368686/christopher-mcdougall-sherman-the-donkey/

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nearing vol downside objective.

  • BKXtoZERO

    closed tvix day try for .18 loss. A ding a day keeps the doctor away…….

  • Mark Shinnick

    There’s some evidence that some whole-being stress retards aging. I am very-tepid lite tvix at .89, but vol objective still some more away.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where were Julie and Cyd today?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I miss Julie’s charts. If she keeps this up I may have to chart things myself.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX almost down to 2.0 bollinger… no signal but watching closely

  • Mark Shinnick

    Near as I can tell, its a downside vol breakdown. Great area for a fake out, too.

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX contracts also expire tomorrow so they are always killing calls

  • Mark Shinnick

    Which contract looks good for lotto?

  • BKXtoZERO

    no options for me….

  • pepe

    Sold third batch of UNG calls this morning for a nice 2R. Holding max 2 days due to market conditions.

    Still long USO and short DOCU (which looks ripe for a drop down to 21-day EMA.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 10.91 on the day

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    TLT at risk, IMHO.
    (sell safety, load equity in progress)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p28270603561

  • HD

    pick your spots!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Quiet in here lately. Where’s everyone?

  • pepe

    DOCU: A beautiful chart with price / relative strength divergence, dropping MACD and stochastic on low volume. A pattern emerging that could take it down to $63 and change. Possible rising wedge which could create more damage. And five failed tries to break through upper trendline.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/43c29c41f915d9d679d6e533355950eaf7e7d56f40e5bce7ec98a50feffb3206.png

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Banking coin? Your system development course is great. Working on it, and on banking coin,

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ah – that’s great to hear! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Cyd and I are taking a breather. We have had a great year trading .Also work has picked up for both of us as my client base has increased and Cyd has a lot of field work to do
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Pepe Great TA
    JULIE

  • HD

    Round numbers trading.

  • pepe

    Thank you very much. I’m learning. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Pepe Something you may want to do on another chart is three bollinger bands (1) 21.2 (2) 34,2.1 (3) 55,2.5 Three Stochastics (1) 5,3,2 (2) 8,5,3 (3) 13,8,5
    JULIE

  • pepe

    Short XHB at $44.51 via puts. Average volume, poking at upper trendline. Looking for a failure into close or tomorrow.

  • HD

    hunting season. 1 elk down. Deer starts next week.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Taking a breather now that things are getting interesting? LOL – Okay well, pop by once in a while and say hello ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • pepe

    Just waiting for this afternoon’s sell-off… ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD General rifle deer and elk in MT begins October 26.Archery opened September 7. We have 1 elk husband got at 35 yards.Cyd and I I have 2 tags to fill and husband has 1 deer tag to fill We will be hunting in the snow.in general rifle hunt.I will be shooting my Win 30 – 30 and Cyd will be using a Win 308.My husband will use Win 270
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Likewise Pepe. Looking to short XHB at confluence of red 34.2.1 bollinger band and upper trend line
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cce3dcbaa9d6357c66d89eb6efffd5c6cb4ded5a8119794f7a62edf71cafdab1.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    go go 30 caliber!
    SPX 3030?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG White background SNOW ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Congrats on the elk. Best protein available imo.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    We have a 300 RUM and 6.5 creed more for hunting. We will be hunting less than a mile from the border next week. Sidearms too. Should be an adventure.

  • HD

    Itโ€™s OPEX week. I know you all did the stats and thatโ€™s why 2960 was a sweet set up yesterday for TAT!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HD, do you like the creed? I’ve got the impression it was a ‘paper puncher’.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD It was in the snow.one bull and two cows.Cyd and I were with him. Archery he is adamant that we be near him and rifle season we must be very close to him and our chambers empty
    JULIE

  • HD

    Yes. Itโ€™s the most accurate rifle Iโ€™ve ever shot. Good to kill out to about 800 yards. Longer needs the RUM

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    less kick than a .308?

  • HD

    No kick

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD My husband prefers the 270 to the 6.5 Creed says that both are similar and ballistics almost identical
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thanks.
    “The recoil of the 6.5mm Creedmoor is less than that of a .308, but the round is accurate at a very long distance. Groups of less than one MOA have been maintained on a target at about 1,000 yards. … So, the round is very accurate with a lighter recoil.”

  • pepe

    Sensed I’m a bit early… All signals are not yet teed up. Thanks for this, Julie! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd shoots a 308
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sir Mole… Did you pick up a long position on ES somewhere? Have you been waiting out this whole chop zone planning to enter on a break out?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The 270 is flat shooting too and super accurate.Grizz says the ballistics are identical to the 6.5 Creed.Boils down to personal preference
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Mercy. Daddy issues?
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shooting stars are very cool. But not 100%.
    Have a good envelope. Something that you trust. and a Plan. always a plan.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aca5b0e480105025004c27256ccb616eb80a620c16b79d406b61104cefd46b4d.png

  • HD

    Agree. The 6.5CM is a short action rifle though. Smaller and lighter which is great for AZ where we are hiking steep and nasty canyons.

  • HD

    Whipsaw Wednesday on deck. Gap and crap?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {sigh} – well I guess it could pull-back to support. (arrow)
    not my idea of fun, but hey – who said this should be fun!

    in hindsight – Gold Line โ„ข call for the Win.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6b03b8f716311d194f0d21a2f4a4d50066036a662cd047fdc9e3b4c7180f0ea.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I read Tim’s post. My take was he was simply pointing it out, I don’t think he had much faith from the wording I saw.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and in Tim’s defense, he could have been absolutely right.
    what Mole Captain does however, is emphasize objectiveness.

    show me a scatter plot of shooting stars. what is the probability of a reversal?
    stuff like that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Wait till you get a long line of Wins. that’s always fun. (was it me? or was it Luck?)

  • pepe

    Ditto with XHB.

    The most confusing would be a pullback to 2,986. That would keep everyone on their toes.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a84a7e551ad51e250a5f3edd3a80f21b0df3756f0e74efbd78fb8599b36ce9ff.png

  • pepe

    DOCS crossing Rubicon. Like a battle painting by Roy Lichtenstein. But the good stuff will have to wait until tomorrow.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/36e92a5f32bef94fa66b78db13f6f2a2a088a813ca765ecdbacb5beb331666f2.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wait.
    You don’t have a pack burro?
    ๐Ÿ˜‰
    https://www.desertusa.com/animals/photos2/IMG_0280.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    HD does studies like that. Then he asks if you have and doesn’t tell you his answer :/

  • BKXtoZERO

    Locked in big 0.10 cent gain on tvix but now leaving larger portions on.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Cool.
    mind blowing how long it will stay out there.

    I have my Lotto Numbers. (no, that’s not Photo-shopped)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c725f609130837af9b448b4e5d4593c321bd051c49e86e846bb702b8d2aef755.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    1:11 – dam – missed Market close.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ve doubled-up, but still baby size. As a downside vol breakdown, its legitimacy still isn’t too credible.

  • BKXtoZERO

    You didn’t do your time check and look what happened

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mediamo

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Baseball cards .. The best investment of all time. …. O’Really O’Reilly
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m thinking of something else, mentioned today.

    https://danieldefense.com/dd5-v4-6-5-creedmoor.html

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I just yelled out to Grizz… Daniels Defense is top of the line as is Colt.He says to checkout the Ruger 6.5 PRC Creedmoor long distance.as it’s a great one too
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    People’s Republic of China? I’ll look into it.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    He says the Ruger 6.5 PRC Creedmoor M Lock. He says that Cyd and I can shoot it. We both can handle the Win 270.As stated before Cyd shoots a Win 308 that she bought
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Grizz also says you want a free floating barrel and free floating hand guard which the Ruger has.He says these features superb accuracy
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    all i want to know is โ€œwill it take down a Bigfoot?โ€

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I can answer that .. Must be a head shot between the eyes.Me I will use a 12 gauge shotgun with a slug lol!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Pretty sure the Buffs can outrun Big Foot. Has anyone come across a Big Foot pile ? lol!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh you meant scat? yeah – that would be a big pile, wouldn’t it?
    LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Big Foot with diarrhea … Follow the trail. LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hey, Ask Grizz if you can, does he know anything about modern spring drains? I’ve got a stopper on the fritz.

    https://www.lowes.com/pl/Sink-pop-up-drain–Sink-drains-stoppers-Sink-parts-repair-Plumbing-parts-repair-Plumbing/2695925525?refinement=3791209584

    should I repair it, or just replace it?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh Booooo, Hisssssss.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG we have a bathroom sink with a stopper that broke and he has not got around to fix it. It broke underneath the sink
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    threaten him. “If you don’t fix it, I’m calling a plumber!”
    that will get him going. LOL.

    I’ll figure it out.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORYjsJxwo3M
    somehow.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I am bushwacked and going to call it a night. See ya tomorrow
    JULIE