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Wednesday Lottery Ticket
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Wednesday Lottery Ticket

by The MoleAugust 7, 2019

A low-probability-high-outcome setup is afoot in equities so let’s dispense with the pleasantries and dive right in. Clearly a large percentage of market participants are now anticipating a 2008 style bear market followed by seven years of locust while economic ping pong games with China are used as a handy excuse to roil markets during the summer.

Since I don’t have a crystal ball I couldn’t possibly tell you where we’re trading a week or a month from now. But what I do know very well are inflection points at which the odds may be slightly in my favor. Plus a big lesson to be learned here is that directional bias is a lot less important than the odds of outcome.

Let me explain…

Alright, so where exactly are we right now? Remember when I pointed to the ES 2800 cluster or a bit below as a plausible bounce zone? The volume profile chart above made that pretty clear and the price action thus far is backing up this scenario.

What follows now is a rip higher which either continues and short squeezes the hell out of everyone or the rally hits a wall near 2900 and price dives back lower. Which in turn would open up the door for a medium term bearish scenario a.k.a. the bear’s technical equivalent of Jenna Jameson in stereoscopic 3D during her prime years.

The VIX punched all the way to 25 and now has reverted to the 20 mark, which was to be expected. So if you backed up the truck on calls a day or two ago then you also bought a ton of vega which is now effectively crushing you monster truck style.

This is something we’re going to cover in detail in a future option series either here or over at RPQ, but in a nutshell: If you’re playing options here then you will have to get your ass vega and to some extent theta neutral (as we may be here for a while), which means a vertical spread.

Yes I know what you are thinking: “But spreads have only limited upside!” (use whiney voice of your choice).

YES, that’s exactly the point – you WANT limited upside in combination with higher leverage. Which puts us into a clearly defined setup with defined up and downside.

WA-WA-WHAAAT??

This is something I couldn’t possibly cover here in detail today but suffice it to say that buying naked options in almost all cases is absolutely RECKLESS which is why it’s mainly done by amateurs.

Take a peek at implied volatility across the SPX option chain. The weeklies that are expiring today are pricing in a 68% chance of a 25 handle move in either direction and the ones that expire on Friday are pricing in a 50 handle move in either direction. Remember that when setting your ISL.

I bet you never considered looking at implied volatility when it comes to placing your stops. By the way Tony and I are already working on an extensive option series that’ll put you into the 1 percentile of market participants. It’ll be available over at RPQ once we’ve finally launched the new portal.

Alright, I should point out to you that IVTS is still far above the 0.9 mark plus it hasn’t entered our BB yet. Which means that this is low probability high outcome lottery ticket. Just to make sure we are clear on that one.

So here’s the setup: Long here with a stop at minimum below ES 2852 – you can be more conservative of course. In my not so humble opinion this thing either blasts higher here or will be mired in whipsaw for a week or two.

Regarding the odds of outcome trumping directional bias: Look, either this thing explodes higher from here or stops us out probably today or tomorrow after hitting the wall near 2900.

So we are talking a limited time frame in which we are either proven right or wrong. Plus if we find ourselves on the winning side a 3R winner is a definite possibility. All of which means a lot more to me than directional bias, of which I have absolutely no control over.

Godspeed and only use capital you don’t worry about losing.

Last Week – Time Is Running Out!

Remember when I told you that my masterclasses will only will be available for a short amount of time? Well, how time flies – because we are now in the final week – and after Friday they are GO-GO-GONE!!

So don’t waste any time and buy either series right now while they are available at a highly discounted price. Because this offer ends this Friday, after which they will not be available again here on Evil Speculator.

Price Action Masterclass: $97 instead of the regular RPQ price of $297.
System Building Masterclass: $147 instead of the regular RPQ price of $497.

Meaning you are getting both classes for less than 1/3rd of the official price!

I want to make it very clear. If you email me on Saturday and ask me to make an exception… no dice. Its OFF THE MARKET FOREVER as of EOB this Friday.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Ian Naugler

    BTC looking to breakout!

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    What’s RPQ?

  • BobbyLow

    So what changed yesterday from the day before and what has changed today. Nothing! Absolutely nothing!

    A few days does not a longer term trend make but if it smells like a bear, walks like a bear and growls like a bear well?

    Once again going to be a challenge to get in all the fun with today’s price action but at least I’m still short oil so that’s worth something. 🙂

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • HD

    so the option guys got their 50 handle move! It’s just a smarter market now.

  • HD

    The EW, if your following along. Noted the 0-B TL break and SPX rallied right to HWB (GG and I noted yesterday), 2 touches and I went home flat. Lucky! 0-B TL backtest? would make next rally(>2855) a flat before C down begins. This wave is 5 days old now-if you follow TIME
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aac4aaa1ea6b14a0502e97e2dc77ba7f6d963f89a1ce5ceddfe1c1fd380669a6.png

  • HD

    bottom line- pick your spots!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    lucky indeed. price could have gaped up (2920) on some illogical tweet.
    😉

  • HD

    TL and Fibs vs. potential tweet. Just played it safe

  • HD

    +25 handles off TL 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s a new portal I’m building together with my quant buddy Tony. It’ll be educational stuff only along with some pertinent services.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed – still smells bearish. The lottery ticket only aims at capturing a rip higher.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That general idea of what is actually happening ends up with the bus leaving with sudden sinkhole events. Position-and-hold with a good tenacious model is the ticket to that bus.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s a legitimate place for a reversal. *if* it’s gonna happen.
    NYSE
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be0ed34ba016aaf22ad2b715b52436ae9b54541a779755fad028d5ff196b3ed0.jpg
    hold my beer

  • Ronebadger

    Fun with colored trend lines and waves (and predictions…from this PermaBear) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e76bf91315478d141da7e27f512071f0ec8b3230032b54e17ef243af6b330595.png

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Thx

  • HD

    some of EW is subjective but 1 rule I think helps the impulse vs corrective abc count down is – no part of wave 2 should make new ATH. Just my lens. You could move 1 to 2958, maybe. GL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    where’s Julie?, BAC – asleep at the wheel girl.

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BAC

  • Ronebadger

    Agreed…hence, the black line
    I drew the purple lines for a nice channel…just my lens

  • HD

    this rally has teeth IMO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Could be Mr. Bear growling with massive moves in both directions. I got stopped on the Short Side for -7 Points. Went Long at 2858 and so far so good. We’ll see what happens.

  • HD
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew today?

  • Darkthirty

    This rally has delirium tremens, DJI / ES are not in sync. Not sure which one is being pumped yet. Smells like a waterfall may be in the works………….

  • Darkthirty

    Futures and ETFs never gave a clear EW count that was tradeable. EDIT that I could trade on minute charts…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Good Sir. I can’t do spreads but one thing I do when the probability of trend goes down is to pick something less volatile to find out in gingerly fashion but still have some participation. I love your videos on price action.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like this sucker is going down…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 21.96

  • BKXtoZERO

    out, 0.10 cent loss, corrective low to scare the Moles :/

  • Darkthirty

    Lotsa volatility, no correlation. Deleting drawings every 5 minutes……..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Holding 18.16 Yes !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    got gold!
    Sorry milk marketing folks, I’m stealing it

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    re-entered tvix after that spike 5 min ago got taken out 22.2

  • ridingwaves

    They’re going to ram this down to 200 SMA on SPX 2782 area

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO Careful Chief selling volume SPY diminishing
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    What a twisted chart we weave, when it’s the Fed we’re supposed to believe ……….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    SPX is HWB 2847. Trying to stay w B up idea. Monday and Wednesday tails- tweezer lows until wrong. Will give it rest of day to prove either way.

  • HD

    Buyers came in. See if it holds

  • ridingwaves

    get some coconut milk u slacker

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Careful https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/533a32be8e8743ddcff7e8034c88c15425559e49bdc2471e31d4ad45bde5e430.png Bears SPX could be a double bottom at 61.8% retracement and Fib Fan line .SPY selling volume diminishing as noted below in a reply to our Chief
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG Tying up all loose ends at work and very busy this morning.Leaving for Denver Saturday morning
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    the fall this morning may be the “suck in late shorts” –

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    several markets near important levels (200 dma) so a bounce is not out of the question – keep the power dry !

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a nice place to insert a man tied up in a chair. but I’m at work, not a good idea.
    😉

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • BKXtoZERO

    out at 21.75… tried wider stop got wider butt kicking…. this reminds me why I hate chasing tvix

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Catracho NDX is a leader not SPX as everyone thinks
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep good alternative!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep, DOW is the headliner index

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    DOW is the flight to safety
    JULIE

  • HD

    In Ronebadgers count SPX could price a 4th wave triangle here. Would be a B wave triangle for me. That keeps us guessing a few more days before a 200 handle drop.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m off to a meeting. this is when Market’s make their MOVE.
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Easy now!!

  • HD

    test the June lows? Sounds nicer. 🙂

  • HD

    +15. Still not a fan of Fibonacci?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Pattern recognition … Checkout the importance of the weekly 55 ema Yup ! Always go to the weekly chart and insert your favorite moving averages
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6aa2c9f9cc1d70e56fe450823c895fc99799929bb7b7e0db9305caaf6db69dff.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    notice the areas under the 21 & above the 55.
    volatile!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Everyone is focused SPX …. Natty Gas is setting up for a nice move and I am positioned
    JULIE

  • HD

    What’s the ticker?

  • ridingwaves

    scaling into UWT first buy 9.50….
    the 10 yr auction tailed off to 1.70
    more bloodletting tomorrrow with 30 yr….who wants to buy anything that yields so little for so long…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I trade UNG There is a 3X long UGAZ Checkout the Commercial COT long position. When the Spec shorts cover Holy Cow https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c919f39654d7abc33ee657b726cb9de160432fcd3f04e9ab344ebc1d7a12a15.png
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am half in…

  • HD

    GL Julie. It has rallied the last 3 August’s. Would need to break months long DT for me.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I like the lower trend line from beginning of year This is going to be a good one HD Everyone on one side of the boat short I love these setups HD
    JULIE

  • HD

    All out from 31 and 47. Flat

  • Darkthirty

    Hell No! He was hanging out with that dood Ralphie Elliot!

  • HD

    All out from 31 and 47. Flat 71

  • HD

    Teeth!

  • BobbyLow

    🙂

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m back, yup – another 15 pts green.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m just not seeing it sweetie. perhaps our timeframe is different?

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m5

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You guys are from Mars lol
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Checkout the nice volume pattern UNG on the 60 min
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    NEWS FLASH …. JPM just issued a Very Strong Buy 3 X COUG lol
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Short on the 786 retrace…see if I don’t get bit

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TLT This could be a climax run out of the channel. Today’s gap up sold into
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd6df80cd4784a14895f996d5f8afe57195c0ae02dfe8a1b6c847b707faacb4e.png

  • ridingwaves

    hi ho silver, biggest 1 day move in 3 years
    pnf painting 21

  • Darkthirty

    Do you have a 2942 target?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Then why do they call it a Venus?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    There’s the EW flat suggested this morn. See if sellers show

  • ridingwaves

    Take it easy on yourself, nobody listens to me either, including my dog and wife

    I’m locked into gold right now like when I had crude at 43 and rode it all the way to 75

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Nobody will love you like that dog.
    LOL.

  • HD

    Idk. I really hope they don’t let any bulls out above 2900.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO may buy a little. Not shown is the bollinger band 55,2.5 at 10.31 Will post when I pull the triggerIf so will watch resistance and a backtest of the lower trend line
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    2644 target on the flat?

  • BobbyLow

    Close at the HOD?

  • HD

    Was B up flat symmetry at 2887.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    If you’re right, I’ll buy you a cup of coffee or a drink of your choice. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL 2905 is the daily 5 ema GG Has no originality LOL!
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I never argue b waves, they just tell me where c is going…. It’d have to be an expanded or a zig zag with a 382 retrace

  • BKXtoZERO

    I closed DRV an hour ago for a 1.4$ loss on small daily sized position. Stocks are unclear so eying opportunities w emerging potential…may gas…maybe uwt

  • Rightside

    COT, yep a-2.5 Z-score on a 1 year basis, -2.77 Z-score on a 3 year basis

  • BobbyLow

    This could be my best trade since I began trading futures. It’s easy to get stopped out on a loser but when there’s a winner that turns unto a runner it’s a challenge to hold through all the ups and downs as price continues on trend. I’m at about +30 Points right now and would like to hold until 4:10 PM. However, this run might be running out of gas. If so, it’ll get stopped at +22.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    at least I have class.
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Just a thought to watch tomorrow. SPX they could gap it up above the gap I call it the gapity gap technique.keep it on your radar.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you doubt MOle?

    “it’s a legitimate place for a reversal. *if* it’s gonna happen.” – GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The 5 ema and the gap is strong resistance Just watch tomorrow for a gap up above the gap and 5 ema
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I need to get through today first. LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Buying a little USO Strong buying last hour and above VWAP Nice bounce off support. UNG nice bounce off a 61.8% retracement today
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My kinda gal.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NG are the futures.

  • BobbyLow

    Out +25 Points.

    Still a decent day all and all. I gave back about half of todays gains on Short Oil but I’m still holding short via SCO.

  • BKXtoZERO

    30 yesterday. 25 today…nice BL

  • Darkthirty

    Dow/Corning maybe?

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    4hour chart looks like candle jumped over the wall. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    a good day for me is “I didn’t get my ass kicked today”.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole’s post: ”
    but suffice it to say that buying naked options in almost all cases is
    absolutely RECKLESS which is why it’s mainly done by amateurs.” This is more great FREE information I could have used years ago.

  • Cyd

    How many traders actually make money with options. Hedging with $VIX calls is what the pros do
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    The PPT steps in and saves the market from a waterfall decline. The 55 ema – fib arc and fib fan line was their choice for the stick save. The weekly chart remains bullish if Friday’s close is above the baseline @ 2878.40.2925.05 is the conversion line which it must get above next

    I believe the $VIX gave a buy signal today with the BB and is below 20 which is very important 2925.05 is on our watch
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06fea9b570be614b7a9967ee9cf48a1916d29a0e2feaf861f3fe9322a46e43e9.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry I can’t do a post today. The site was down all morning and I was working on getting it up and running together with my sys admin who fortunately was available at the time. If you experience any issues with the site today please email me right away at admin@

    Thanks in advance.

  • Ronebadger

    Yes, VIX Buy Signal Yesterday. But, that can disappear if the VIX gets over the BB (again) in the next few days…we’ll see…

  • ridingwaves

    going short here spx with 100sma above, stop 2 pts above it

  • https://quanto.live QUANTO

    eurodollar suggests lower yield and hence more cuts coming by FED.
    https://quanto.live/dailysetups/eurodollar-futures-above-2016-highs-fed-to-cut-over-100-bps-quickly/

  • BobbyLow

    I suppose there are some people who can make money with options. I’m not one of them. I’ve traded all kinds of options including exotic option spreads. In my early years, I even had a paid subscription with an option pro for awhile. In the end they were all losers. The biggest problem with trading options is that they are designed in such a way that the odds favor the house way too much. There are simply way too many ways for an option player to lose. IMNSHO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gapped like Julie said.
    if you are a baby bear, IMHO – best to reassess your conviction!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/53e69b4e8a8d28d1b51cc9d5c390832500d8768dff3694048f07d573df1bb808.jpg
    -GG

  • HD

    good visual of the tweezer low. IMO every bullish scenario has played out from the low. I’m a seller into 2914 and then reassess if wrong.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thank you kind sir. I know my dailies fairly well. But you are the Master of intradays.

  • HD

    good thing we came up with a VIX sell strategy on Monday. -30% #urwelcome

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    I agree with you HD. Looking to short at 2025ish.

  • BobbyLow

    The last nine 5 minute candles have been a slow and steady grind upward. I might join you at an eventual sign of weakness but the slow and steady price action looks pretty strong at this moment.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I agree with BL down below.
    I’ve found them good for one reason only, and that is too stop bleeding.
    and don’t get me wrong, stopping that bleeding is going to cost you dearly.
    It is usually best, to dump that original (stock) position.
    But like the comedians say, and the E.R. surgeons -“your money, or your life”.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it must be those whales on the move that Gangster talked about.
    WTH is the VWAP??

  • BobbyLow

    Price is 19 Points above VWAP (2897) at this moment.

  • BobbyLow

    I haven’t used the VIX for anything in years.

  • BobbyLow

    Took profit on my Oil Short. +1R. Will revisit Oil and take another look before the COB.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 18.45. I knew they would be back….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s what she said.
    😉

  • mSquare

    All bears are dead!

    The past decade and more so since the highs last Jan 2018, all ‘well reasoned’ bearish bets have mostly resulted in pain. It sure looks like we are heading to a quick down like in Oct-Dec 2018 but have no conviction

    as threat of single tweet could blow out your (index) short …

  • BobbyLow

    Nope that still works fine! 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..hence my semi-continuous trolling of “Zimbabwe B!tchez”.

    In a leveraged ponzi system, inflation is the only tool they have IMHO.
    War, a horrible reset tool, is apparently off the table.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If I hold something, and the price doubles, am I richer?
    or has it been devalued?
    think about it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    KHC,
    the iconic US ketchup company disappoints.
    Diseased tree indeed.

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=KHC&ty=c&ta=0&p=w

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO long Yes UNG long Yes SPX watching 2925
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice. UGAZ =1$, I only have half of what I wanted….. still not out of the woods

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Bears still have the upper hand. SPX still under the declining 55 and 21 ema’s 2952 very very important to get above
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    2929 is a Fibonacci pivot. 3 tweets last hour about FED and dollar….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Your golden line matches what ? The daily 55 ema
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hell if I know. I just steal it. works better than 50% though.
    😉

  • Darkthirty

    2933 is symmetric retrace, correlates with 618 of previous…Other than that it looks like an inverted head-n-shoulders, bat wing, 3 domes and a peaked roof, coyote head pattern. Dji target was 25278, got close

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd called me at 1:17 am this morning She was up working on the Chief’s $VIX:$VXV chart.Combining that with two other charts (sentiment) we can nail every top
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m highly skeptical. Then again, if quants & PH’Ds found it, they sure as hell wouldn’t SHARE it with anyone. neither should Cyd.
    🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 2933 is also the daily 55 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Unreal what she did So simple that a cave woman can do it. Everyone does all these complicated and complex computations and overlooks simplicity.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    now get with program and get simple

    Simplicity is the art of complexity. If you empty your mind and remove everything non-essential you will find how simple trading can really be. Listen, it’s not about being wrong or right – I make good calls and I make bad calls – perhaps the ratio is 60/40 – which is better than most. But what matters is what we do when we’re wrong (i.e. cutting our losers) – and of course when we’re right (i.e. riding our winners).

    What else do we need to know? Nothing!

  • Darkthirty

    2823 was 5 pts short of 786 retrace of the move up from the beginning of june

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole goes long lottery on EOFW and wins again…… (Congrats!)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You should read about Larry Williams He is a Montanan who is perhaps the best trader who has lived You can make a fortune at 50/50
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, why don’t you setup a get together at Perkins next year?
    I’m sure he would like free pie!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Coffee is for closers!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Anyone long this beast?

  • Darkthirty

    Think about paying interest on loan money that never existed. Think about purchasing property that you never really own. Think about invaders living better than you because they’re illegal. Think about laws that may not be enforced, if you have status. Et Cetera ad nauseum ………….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    go an do likewise Gentlemen

  • BobbyLow

    And think about ICE looking the other way at Big Farmers hiring all these illegals. I lived in South Florida for 10 years and used to drive through the town where “illegal” tomato and orange pickers lived packed like sardines into shacks that looked like shit. Every Friday night they used to be driven to Publix in old school busses to do their food shopping. They got paid less than minimum wage to pick tomatos and oranges in the hot Florida sun. They might be better off living in Florida than living in Mexico but to say they’re living better than us is complete bullshit.

  • BobbyLow

    I talked myself out of going long at 2907 this morning “thinking” I would have another opportunity later. Then the steady march upward began. I suppose this is part of recency bias when there is a lot of volatility, more is expected, and it doesn’t come.

  • Darkthirty

    Maybe “back in the day”. Now Mom is single with 6 bambinos and free ride welfare, and a big EIC check at tax time. Dad is working construction with no insurance or taxes, cash only. If someone gets hurt on the job, they get free medical and disability/workers comp. My comp/liability is 10k a year, figure 30% gross for taxes and SSI. Who is the dummy?

  • BobbyLow

    I’m not doubting what you see. But this is what I saw and witnessed it first hand from 1998 to 2008. I just wish that instead of demagoging the situation that those in charge of setting policy would spread some of the grief to the big employers who take advantage of the cheap labor by hiring undocumented workers.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Agreed! 25 years ago the local truck farmers had at least 100 laborers in a polebarn sleeping on cardboard. I was disgusted with that, even as transient workers, I thought they deserved more respect. Different game nowadays. You can point at employers, but what it comes down to is the welfare, cut it off and you don’t have to close the border.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yesterday showed chart USO implicating price must get above a lower trend line Yup sure enough watching the lower trend line
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61752cbac0e1f58c89cfe275f97d40e29c6376ef553da4a5819507797234edab.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Very important for the bulls to close the week (Friday) above 2878,40
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It’s obvious that everyone and gurus are now bullish. An old saying nothing is good under the 50 sma Guys getting ready to short
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    As of this moment /CL is still looking weak. I took profit this morning on my short and it looks like I’ll re-open another short before the COB today if the price action remains the same as it is right now or worsens over the next couple of hours.

  • Darkthirty

    Looks like a hit on 2933…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL I have a long from yesterday but a stop at B / E A lot of accumulation yesterday off support
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Julie I have a bias against charting USO because I don’t think it tracks well against the front month contract and current price of oil.

    That asside, Oil (/CL) is showing that it’s up today over $1. However this amount is mostly made up of the price action between 2:30 PM and 4 PM yesterday which was put into the value of our ETF’s before the COB yesterday.

  • HD

    Not everyone. Quants are still crunching the numbers and backtesting 20 years of data.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Open interest has dropped since 1st week of July along with price indicating a low is approaching
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD I know how to figure the algos and will do so in Denver this weekend. Since a new high from 2954 end of April I can recalculate. You remember how accurate they were before
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Might effect it.

    I don’t want to sound like Professor O So Wise or Captain Obvious, but I believe that current prices are either in varying degrees of strength or varying degrees of weakness. Other variables are just that – variable. And these variables are derivatives of price. So other than sudden market shocks or a Tweet in the middle of the night, price says it all.

    BTW, I don’t pick tops or bottoms or use support or resistance mainly because I suck at it. After being a contrarian for many years, I found it much easier and better for my sanity to just go with the flow. :).

  • BobbyLow

    Update – /CL got a good push right before the 2:30 PM open market close so it’s possible now that I might be either long or flat before the COB today but most probably not short.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • HD

    You’re thinking new highs next?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also BL The pullback USO today was very light and decreasing volume and has held 10.76 Also OIL VIX on a buy signal per chart in reply below Compendium of evidence LOL!
    BL You have a great weekend.Leaving for Denver Saturday morning and probably will not be around tomorrow. Cyd is going with us as operation is Monday
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I probably was not clear Whenever there is a new high I must recalculate. I have not recalculated since the April high 2954.With this substantial correction I can use the 3027.98 high
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Good luck with your operation Julie and best wishes for a speedy recovery .

  • HD

    T & W I was but not today. You?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks BL
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 Looks corrective to me that is why I am getting ready to short and have posted targets
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNP Range bound like it’ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2768b6a36bec527a5f6c695bec8552aae15a77c66aec24fb90b6829bff1217f8.png s industry $DJUSRR Great trading support and resistance range bound with Keltner Channel
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole did you SELL? (it’s the button right next to buy) he he he Did you move up trailing stop I guess? just wondering………..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Good Luck Julie… have your anesthesiologist watch your stops for you while under

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Will do BK lol
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys when range bound you must determine if it’s distribution or re accumulation
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, I’m now long Oil via UCO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good choice BL Do you trade Natty Gas too ? I am long UNG and today’s minor pullback like USO light and diminishing volume and holding 18.38
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    2963 is 786 of previous wave down, count as 2 of 3…. Alt count a-b-c complete, in 4 of 3 of 1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check.

    dam, it was good to get away from the desk.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    are you kidding me!? Cyd will be doing that in the waiting room.
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Catracho watching $NDX declining 21 ema at 7760.42 Volume on QQQ’s now decreasing As stated below I am getting ready to short
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    What did you have a “Nooner” lol!
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Nearly identical pattern as May

  • BobbyLow

    Oil’s always been a strong performer for me but Natty Gas not so much. LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes BL Natty Gas is the widow maker but I have done very well trading it.Never the the 2 and 3 Xers though Turn on a dime and Yipes
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I didn’t know you had your own party!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GERB

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I bought plain yogurt thinking it was maple YECCCHHH !
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep – watching this as well –

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Trading is just my cover. I’m a Bulgarian operative with all the Slavic beauties as ‘assistants’.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    blondes.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Okay, I am convinced. Not going to look for reversals being viable with these gaps.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    think bigger, Nooner(s).
    LOL.

  • HD

    News?

  • mSquare
  • Darkthirty

    Go to zero hedge, right side click “live audio market commentary” Close “welcome to talking forex” . Bloomberg isn’t free anymore, so that’s what I use…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good Gawd D30 Pony up for Bloomberg I can’t believe it ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Haven’t been married for 20 years, I don’t pay for anything I can get for free anymore……..

  • Darkthirty

    It was only a 20 point drop!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    easy Mrs. Money bags.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I was just kidding with him GG He knows that Another leg down like May looming ?
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG FYI $XVG The major moving averages are in a bearish alignment and all declining
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fb57dbedec96707992c2aee2e10e003e60280cc00be8c4d9f2bb23e61564305.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $CRB Commodities Index better rally here If not deflation is a real threat
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c3d92c69d286789169e1955f8cfc8940101245cd3dba0a32a7470cc5122e5e7.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • mSquare

    No need. You can stream it for free

    https://flixed.io/bloomberg-tv-without-cable/

  • BKXtoZERO

    I went long in the 401K commodities again 3 days ago on deep sell day, comods were only down 1.5% that day

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yes but, RSI has tapped 30 and is climbing – just like early June.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot labd.