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Wednesday Morning Briefing
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Wednesday Morning Briefing

by The MoleAugust 28, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Since I took this snapshot the spoos have been pushing higher and I’m pretty certain an attempt will be made to claw its way back above that hourly NLBL at 1632.25 which also lines up with the 25-hour SMA. And those two roughly line up with the daily NLSL at 1631.5 which was yesterday’s short trigger. A push back above it would put me back into long positions with a stop below. After all I’m not married to either direction here and all I care about is winding up on the winning side eventually as big moves are on the horizon.

The golden line for the bears is that weekly SMA at ~ ES 1622 – a drop below that most likely leads us lower. Until then the bulls still have decent odds to pull the cart out of the mud today.

As a matter of fact I’m seeing a potential long entry right here and now:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Mid-week TOS update. Looks like they found another bug. I wish they would stop with the fucking features that nobody uses.

  • Fearless

    Boy oh boy, if bears can’t push this tape lower than 1620, then they’ll pay a huge price for sure. As per my ISEE statistics posted yesterday, the average has been 4.6% lower than the ISEE C/P BB hit on August 21, 2013 (that puts the estimate at 1563 for the cycle low). The longer the SPX stays above the 2007 high of 1576 while absorbing all the selling attempts, the stronger the bullish move afterwards.

    If somehow miracle happens and bears push through 1620 with force, then I’d be looking at 1580 for support. If this scenario plays out, there is a relatively high probability that this down move ends without positive divergence.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Boy oh boy, if bears can’t push this tape lower than 1620, then they’ll pay a huge price for sure. ”

    ABSOLUTELY – could not agree more. Which is why I am so excited about this setup – either way it should turn into a runner.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    D A I L Y * Z E R O * H A S * B E E N * U P D A T E D

    https://evilspeculator.com/zero/zero_daily.png

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  • neowave

    In the post “crazyivan FX- the nuts and bolts” there is a table included for the last 120 days of fx.360 for 6 differenent fx pairs.

    If everyone pair should get to 32.5-39 R /annum. Isn’t there a huge advantage in taking the USD/JPY pair, since it only returned 1.65 last 120 days.

    if this is not the case, can you choose the wrong pair?

  • SS_JJ

    Thank you Sir. Interesting signal we have here.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX
    LONG term nearing trend line support

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You can always spread yourself over a few pairs. Plus they are often not active at the same time, in which case you can play what’s active. If in doubt just spread your exposure over two or three pairs (smaller position size – 0.5% each or 0.33% each).

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ..some extra-ordinary volume on USO today.

  • beentohardknocksU

    Is there something wrong with zero this am? I have nothing on screen for zero lite this am.

  • yades

    how do we check when our free Crazy Ivan subscription expires?

  • Darkthirty

    it won’t matter, you’ll be able to pay off the deficit by then!

  • yades

    dude it’s just i’m not getting any alert and suspect I might have run out of trial..

  • BobbyLow

    You should be able to log in to the account you created to enroll in the free subscription that will show your Sub History.

  • SS_JJ

    Bucky looks shortable after retest of 25d sma

  • Skynard

    Thanks for your post Mate, agree 100%. Looking for a squeeze from hell before a move lower around Sept 18.

  • Skynard

    Picked up SPY 166 calls yesterday, maybe by Fri. AUD tearing it up finally.

  • Skynard

    Back to my entry price, WHEW:)

  • Dyellowflash

    With a Zero at flatline, looks like its going to be scalping time. Wish we have some mole arrows to lead the way.

  • Skynard

    Hourly showing bull, 5 min should react if it is a trend day.

  • Dyellowflash

    Sry bro, I am currently not on ur “side” right now 🙂

  • Skynard

    Lol, hey that is what makes the market

  • BobbyLow

    Could be a rollover day for USO. I never liked the way that USO telegraphs its purchases and that it uses multiple contracts as per its prospectus. OTOH, UCO is made up of mostly the front month contract along with swaps. I have found UCO and SCO to be more reliable tracking against /CL which I chart and make decisions from.

    Also keep in mind that although I trade the actual ETF Stock of UCO and SCO, that I treat the stocks as if they were Options that never expire and have no Vega.
    But different stokes for different folks I guess. 🙂

  • beentohardknocksU

    It was so flat at the outset I couldn’t see it!

  • Skynard

    For some reason TOS does not give a signal until about 15 min after the open. That is why you could not see anything.

  • Pervergence

    Looks like Fearless and Mole called this right on the money…..the ES push should whack gold….flipped my GC to short at 1422

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    tank the vix / squeeze the shorts

  • Pervergence

    go bucky go….

  • yades

    this is weird, if i log into my account my crazy ivan subscrip is still good till sept, but I received no confirmation of the stop loss for AUDJPY.360, am I the only one not receiving emails today?

  • BobbyLow

    I didn’t receive a confirmation of SL either. But I believe the Stop Loss should have been placed at the time of the Sell Stop so it probably shouldn’t have mattered.

    Probably a temporary glitch within the system?

  • yades

    sure technically not, but we always get one, hence i could assume also other emails are not being delivered properly, de facto eur.usd 30 min seems quite volatile to me, just saying

  • Skynard

    ZL showing another buy, 5 min higher peak = bullish tape

  • Fearless

    Me thinks bears likely f***ed up big time.

  • Skynard

    Blew their wad yesterday, now we take it:)

  • Pervergence

    Little overdone on this Syria stuff…..not that news matters…..

  • Pervergence

    Platinum is rocking

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The bears are so useless they couldn’t get laid in a women’s prison holding a fistful of pardons.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ll look into it guys…

  • Pervergence

    I’m using that one…..

  • Fearless

    Finally getting the signature commodities rally towards the maturity of a cyclical bull…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not my creation – use at will.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you go long crude yesterday?

  • Fearless

    Since last week actually.

  • BobbyLow

    Me Too. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We can start a club then.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Isn’t it interesting how all that selling pressure suddenly disappears overnight? I don’t recall seeing such concerted and binary swings pre-2009. Feels like there are actually no bears around at all and selling pressure is solely due to institutionals playing their games. I look at the Zero and it’s absolutely clear to me that this is algo driven.

  • Darkthirty

    ES channel broke

  • ridingwaves

    2008-9 was somewhat similar

  • Darkthirty

    When TA is counter trend you know it’s algo

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • Darkthirty

    check the idiot game