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Wednesday Road Map
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Wednesday Road Map

by The MoleJune 23, 2010

It was a fun day for the bears, especially since our 1130 Soylent Orange target was never revisited after yesterday’s u-turn. That symmetrical triangle was a bit nerve wrecking but we were rewarded by a bearish happy ending at the close. Now let’s look at tomorrow’s road map:

That last guy had a serious soprano going πŸ™‚

Soylent Blue is not officially dead – but to quote Princess Bride: it would take a miracle! Most likely we drop a little further after which it’s decision making time. Are the grizzlies going to get their coveted Minor 3 or are we still in Minor 2 with a detour into the Big Fat Tease Before The Release? (I had to up Yelnick on that one)

Despite my earlier natural (but well applied) skepticism I was encouraged by the signal lines on the Zero this afternoon. Plus the EUR/JPY looks like it could stay embedded below the 20% mark for a little while. But, we have seen participation come in strong and then simply disappear again a day later – on both sides of the equation. So, we need to keep things in perspective and let price be the final judge. A breach of 1085 is a good step towards Soylent Orange – but only a drop through 1040.83 seals the deal.

I myself will have to make a decision pretty soon – either tomorrow or by Friday at the latest. If I feel confident that Soylent Orange is in the works then I will hold on to my December puts. However, if it looks like as if we have stagnated and that Soylent Green is what we’ll get then I may have to scale out of my December index puts and jump into March 2011 instead.

It also depends on Mr. VIX – if it pushes up hard then swapping puts may not be a wise move – premiums may be too high already and then there’s the issue of slippage due to widened spreads. In the end – you are the trader, so the final decision is with you. It also depends on how far OTM you are – spreads become a lot more reasonable ITM. On my end – those puts always were lottery tickets, and I’m sitting pretty far out at the 65 strike in the December Spiders. Yes, I’m crazy like that πŸ˜‰

I for one am looking forward to either a hard rally or a fast drop. The situation we are in right now doesn’t give me the opportunities for symbol hunting I enjoy and it’s been a bit boring as of late. Nothing is as overbought as I want it (yes, I’m picky) and there’s not much on the oversold side either – everything is kind of gyrating in the middle. Not my kind of tape.

That’s pretty much all I have for you guys tonight. FWIW – I’m getting mighty sick of this 1100 region – we’ve been gyrating around it for months now. Time to say goodbye – and time for the bears to show some teeth.

UPDATE CLOSING BELL: Sorry for being quiet today but I hate FOMC days and the tape was a big snooze. I’ll do an update later today. Thus far nothing much has changed since yesterday.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Gold_Gerb

    first post again?
    geez. this isn't even my home board.
    Wave Surfer thanks.
    hybrid orange/green just ends up green.
    thnx.
    -GG

  • psycho_puppies

    I played the video backwards and I think the subliminal message is we crash tomorrow.

  • Scoops

    More on death cross. It doesn't mean we fall off a cliff. Atleast right away anyway πŸ˜‰ I have to admit I'm pretty paranoid about my shorts, but have a pretty good cushion, and after all, it's just the cost of doing business.

    Have a look at Shanghai.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC&p=D&yr=2

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    SPY not far behind, they do whipsaw a bit on the Death Cross, but usually not too badly…..take a 401K, set it and forget it, until the next cross.

  • Scoops

    This is how I'm playing this as per my comment earlier today about break of 1108.

    http://db.tt/TDCaQv

    Night all.

  • Bob the Horse

    Just posted this in the wrong chat:

    Mole – emailed you some charts, maybe you can post them. I am really struggling to get much conviction here in either direction. I can pull some bearish charts and some bullish charts but overall the picture to me is one of poor risk-reward. A theta burn period looks most likely. Credit spreads are looking more bearish but UK CDS is looking bullish. Skew and Vol are still both (relatively) elevated so I think downside is still capped by this protection. To get short I want to see people taken long and so far, I think we have just seen people squeezed out of a short.

    The best scenario is a dip like we have just seen – to be met with dip buying around this 1085/1095 area, taking us through the 1130 recent highs. That will invalidate a lot of bearish counts, take a lot of people long, targeting 1180+. The risk-reward on the short side then around 1145 could be sweet.

    I added to my long last night at 2710 on estoxx which didn't look too clever for a bit but we have decent support now just below and resistance maybe 5% higher so would rather be long here. If I am right that we are likely to paint a range for a little bit (especially as I think people will cover shorts ahead of earnings), we are closer to the bottom of that range here than the top.

  • jesterx

    forgot the fed is meeting again today, thanks to imafia for reminding me

    http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/i-mafia/

  • sloth_bear

    We must be cautious here, as we may have a C wave up on the EUR/USD which started this morning:


    Here is a repost from yesterday:

    We are bouncing on my upper green channel on EUR/USD which seems to hold, my 1st target as long as it is not breached is 1.2241. This may be the end of B.

    http://screencast.com/t/MGI4ZmVkNz

    And here we are:
    http://screencast.com/t/MDg4MjlkOG

    As long as we don't breach 1.2241 I would be cautious!

    —–

    Quick update on /ES:
    http://screencast.com/t/ZmFjOWM5OWU

  • chronographics

    Yup could be – also could be start of new leg down – just like ES too early to tell for sure just yet.
    Heads or Tails? Bonds prices still holding up nicely, Osc turning down slowly. Who is going to blink first…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    daily euro looks like approaching resistance both trend line and previous support at 12428, so could be tough to crack, plus the very oversold condition has now been worked off (have the underlying probs also been worked off??) Could be we test that 12428 12450 again..but down trend is still main feature
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZGI2OGNhN

  • chronographics

    Feels like the calm before the storm. Maybe STG can give us a clue:
    http://screencast.com/t/YmYyMWE1ZTkt
    Hourly STG shows a nice possible divergence – yet to be confirmed please note – has worked well on last few occasions. Also on the last rally up from 1.4685 so far it looks like three waves with the 3rd wave currently being a little more than .618 of the first wave. So perhaps an ABC if it turns down from here we should get a nice move.

  • chronographics

    Swissy has a nice little down trendline which currently sits at 1.1087 a break of which should see some follow through to the upside:
    http://screencast.com/t/YjgxOGIxYj

  • amokta

    How come UK Llouyds & RBS shares up, yet Barclays flat ??

  • chronographics

    Update on US Bond
    http://screencast.com/t/ZDAxNjg2

    Osc turning down nicely Care needed here as there is potential for the Bonds to pull back some what. Would not like to see them below Blue support line 123.20/24 If is breaks there we could see Moles Soylent Green take place. remember its the price action against the OSc we want to note, nothing to say it cant stay up here (not usually though) πŸ™‚

  • Bob the Horse

    Uk budget bank levy gives credit for insured liabilities, i.e. deposits. So retail funded banks are better off than first thought – I posted y'day telling you to cover RBS short

  • amokta

    thanks. I have long exp puts and the particular account has very high charge to trade (but free to close options) – was keen to hold them if the medium term was for a significant push lower ( i know you dont follwo rbs lloyds)

  • Bob the Horse

    i own lloyds, it's rbs I tend to ignore.

  • sloth_bear

    I tend to agree with both of you, just wanted to point it out as a possibility.
    As long as we don't breach the green ascending channel (that we just retested), then the 1.2241 fib support, I will remain cautious.
    http://screencast.com/t/MGI4ZmVkNz

    For the bearish case, here is an other study (I hope you like rainbows):
    http://screencast.com/t/ZThlZjZlNjk

  • sloth_bear

    This is an answer to chronographics and catracho, one hour ago πŸ™‚

  • chronographics

    Nice Chart πŸ™‚

  • ricebowl

    Europe is selling, and bonds are up again. More blood in the water, maybe!

  • chronographics

    The message the Bonds are giving is not good for the Equities.
    Hope some of you got n on the Swissy Trade posted earlier….

  • amokta

    Selling what? – No great drop ?

  • chronographics

    Look at EURJPY, Swissy EUR GBP Dax is coming off emini rember every big move starts with a smaller one πŸ™‚

  • DudePlunger

    Yup, copper as well. Large moves lower early. /ES has pushed below yesterday's lows but is battling for support. It is FOMC day, so we could see some serious whipsaws.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    agree with you

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    EOD close with a lower low in the first 30mins next day is an all-time pattern for major bottoms. Not saying that it will be a bottom this time – but it sure helps to keep an open mind

  • ricebowl

    FTSE – down 0.93%
    DAX – down 0.58%
    CAC – down 1.19%

  • sloth_bear

    Nice catch on Sissy!
    You think that the move up is over or is there an IHS?
    http://screencast.com/t/ZTJlOTg0MD

  • chronographics

    Dude, you up early, yea think 2.15 it finishes

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    A ton of that is in response to the late day 1.5% plunge that US indices had

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Haven't seen your charts yet but as you are basically describing Soylent Green I would have to agree. The path will be chosen by tomorrow afternoon.

  • Bob the Horse

    Just been reverse engineering one of my main indicators and if we are still in this corrective IT move up, ESU0 should hold above 1180 this week. That would work off the entire OB condition of the market and take it back to neutral. In an uptrend, it is a buy at neutral. If we don;t hold that, may well indicate that the 1130 was all we are going to get to the upside but best to wait and see. As I said earlier, it looks like we are slightly in no-mans land right now, though close to the bottom of the range (if we are in a range) which could take us up to 1145. I am betting on a move up though without serious conviction, i.e. small size.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You mean 1080 I assume…

  • chronographics

    Think so IHS around 1.1140 and breach there on a Point and Fig chart would point to a much better (bigger) move higher. If we have completed the EUR correction up at 1.2450 then we are headed for new lows for year and swissy new highs.

  • Bob the Horse

    yes, good spot of my deliberate mistake.

  • DudePlunger

    It is. We'll see if we get any flush lower on the home sales or if we rally off of it.

  • chronographics

    Someone has to keep us on our toes πŸ™‚

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no true bottom yet…

  • chronographics

    Someone has to keep us on our toes πŸ™‚

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The fact that we are holding here several points above key support tells me we will get a rally off of it.. A true flush will never come off a news…

  • amokta

    BowlfoRice is right, there's an ill wind blowing from somewhere !

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    agree ESU0 87-88-89 is no man's land… SPX 1086 is the support level.. They may do once bounce off the gap fill of that big gap left few weeks back in this region.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i'm just using fast rat, lazy hamster, r(at)si and good old w%r(at)… my intraday settings πŸ˜‰

  • DudePlunger

    Except for last Friday, I'm always on by 9AM.

    This is going to be a very interesting day. I'm not going to hesitate to take profits (or cut losses!), it could get nasty both ways. This 1070-1100 area is what I like to call, “The Zone of Lies and Deception.”

  • DudePlunger

    I don't know if I'll agree that a true flush will never come off news……what exactly do you mean by that? Because as I'm typing this we fell 3pts off the number.

  • chronographics

    Bonds and EURJPY have also moved so less inclined at moment to think this is a head fake

  • ricebowl

    Any idea what just happened? We tanked 6 points in less than a minute. It's as if someone got downgraded.

  • BobbyLow

    Without looking – at exactly 10 AM S&P drops 5 Points.

    Let me guess – New Home Sales Worse than expected? That must be a shocker.

  • DudePlunger

    Here we go. For those listening to Ben's Squawk, you'll know that Merrill, Goldman, JP, Swissy, Chicorp, Merrill, were all sellers off the open and on the number in the big S&P 500.

    I don't tell you guys that so you can feel confident to stay short, but instead I want to make a note that the floor is very active today and we always have an active market when the floor is active. So stay nimble and more importantly stay frosty. (can I say that mole, or is that copyright infringement :D.)

  • amokta

    Thanks.

  • psycho_puppies

    The market is saying New Home Sales -32% is bad.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i have a possible true bottom but too high lazy and r(at)si for meaningful reversal

  • ricebowl

    Thanks.

  • ricebowl

    IMO this will get reversed in the PM; the Fed will pacify everyone by saying that they won't raise rates, and the market will eat it up like candy.

  • chronographics

    Thanks Dude nice info

  • amokta

    what happended just then – big drop in spx – i hope we dont get another flash crash

  • ricebowl

    You hope we *don't* flash crash? πŸ˜‰

    I don't care — can't buy or sell options in a flash crash, but you can after it recovers!

  • tooshort

    getting concerned about the bullish divergence in the ZL… I hate to see it but shouldn't the down signal be a bit stronger?

  • DudePlunger

    Me too. And I'm terrified of FOMC days so I decreased my leverage on the short side here and I remain light short, but I'm waiting and letting this play out.

  • psycho_puppies

    RIP soylent Blue πŸ™‚

  • ricebowl

    That may be the bottom.

  • BobbyLow

    I can't believe I'm positioned correctly for the third day in a row?

    I don't know if my heart can stand it so I'm treading carefully.

    I might have to go beat my head against the wall as I'm experiencing Bear Pain Withdrawal. πŸ™‚

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am worried that we went tested a MAJOR support and hardly any signal on ZL

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If you buy pre-crash. and we come back to same price levels after crash … VIX will be much higher than pre-crash.. So, you will make money no matter what.

  • ricebowl

    Exactly. But the difficulty is that during and after the crash, the bid/ask totally dried up. Even some of the SPY strikes within 3 points from at-the-money had no bids or offers. Of the ones that did have bids and offers, I saw one with a bid of $300 and ask of $500.

    But if you can wait for the next day, then it's all good.

  • ricebowl

    Not the bottom! We're in for a break of 1085.

  • BobbyLow

    At this point in the move, I think it's way to early to worry about a divergence. If the line makes a strong move above the 0 Line then I might get a little worried.

    JMHO

  • ricebowl

    We will break 1085 if the next 2-min candle closes down from here, anyway. We're reversing from the SMA.

  • nyxjf

    Yup. that's the reasonI bought that support.

  • ricebowl

    Pattern failed.

  • BobbyLow

    I think the next move might be at 10:30. If we get another Serious Build in Oil Supply, it might take the Oilers down and the S&P with it.

    Of course we could also get a draw down that's “Better than Expected”. Who the hell knows with the Fuzzy Math they use to calculate storage and refinery capacity.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We bounced right at 1085 – signal weak – chances are we hang around here. If we are lucky we get another attempt but this right now feels like a bear trap.

  • DudePlunger

    Futures were tradeable during the flash crash. If you have Thinkorswim, or any other broker such as IB that supports futures trading, I'd add it to my account. That way, if you are heavy short and the market crashes, you can go long 1 or 2 contracts to hedge your main position.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don't rely on that during a real crash – that little dip was nothing.

  • DudePlunger

    Well, I hope I'm not severely screwed then if I have any position on ahead of a crash.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I know! We bears have taken it up the rectum for 15 months – it's almost strange to see things move our way.

  • amokta

    Watch the vix – has gone up mysteriously!

    Also before we get ahead of ourselves, we are only 7 pts down today – we have had intra-days swings bigger than that, but certainly since the monday top, we are heading in the right direxion. Is this a Bull heart-breaker or a Bear trend-faker

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Were you trading in 2008? That was nothing compared with what's coming…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    1085 is the line in the sand for me.

  • sloth_bear

    Possible bounce here on /ES
    http://screencast.com/t/NTViZjAxMj

  • n2thezonez

    Nice observation. Vix frontrunning the SPX?

  • DudePlunger

    Yes I was. I was trading options exclusively, and I wasn't really screwed on any day where I tried to get out and couldn't. I was screwed because the market moved really fast against me and I had no idea what to do so I just stayed in my puts.

    My biggest fear mole is seeing myself short from 900, market trading 870, and all of a sudden we start to see 865, 860, 850, 840, and I try to reduce leverage because we are down 8% and I don't want to be stuck when the markets close……and I get no fill, even with a limit order above the bid. That happened to stock and option holders during May 6th, but futures are more liquid and you were able to get a fill that day.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    1086 is 50% retracement of the move up from 1040 lows to 1131

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole: may be there was no selling between 1095spx and 1085spx because those folks were shaken out in that dump into close 2 weeks ago and then we gapped up above 1095spx.. so essentially no buyers from between 1085spx and 1095spx – You all have lot more experience than I have .. which is why I pose this noob like question

  • DudePlunger

    Yeah I think so as well. $UVOL-$DVOL is not as weak as I'd like it to be, it's actually pretty dismal right now. Vix is only up 5%, and the good 'ol zero has not given a strong signal at all.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    vix still below some major hurdless

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    What are the levels of those hurdles?

  • Tronacate

    Backtest to 1085

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    this one, and 28,6 and 39 and 41.3

  • Tronacate

    Oil inventories up……home sales down…..gold down…..deflation is looking like the scenario

  • Tronacate

    Public won't tolerate more spending for another stimulus……austerity from top to bottom

  • psycho_puppies

    Dude,
    consider yourself lucky if you can even log into your account on days when the shit is really hitting the fan.

  • DudePlunger

    Yeah good point

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    For now it looks like bottom is in.. We may go retest 200day MA at a minimum.

    Weak signal on ZL, VIX not going up much, up-down volume not quite painting that bad a picture.

  • Tronacate

    The new paradigm……..hey babe…..let me show you my ipad…….I have no house

  • rtlguru

    Much like vix spiking into earnings, I think this is simply vix spiking into expected increased volatility after FOMC decision. Key will be to watch vix after the announcement.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I have seen VIX die out prior to FOMC.. Most FOMC days, it is such flat action all day, it can put you into coma

  • rtlguru

    Right. I guess my point was, don't make too much of the vix movement right now pre-FOMC. Just noise.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we did get a true bottom, but the lazy stochastics and the rsi say more to come…

  • DudePlunger

    Yup. Chop chop into FOMC.

  • Tronacate

    Let's see…..we are gonna leave interests rates low…….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Since when do they care about the public after they have been elected into office?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who else hates FOMC days?

  • Tronacate

    True…….assholes

  • Tronacate

    Es hugging 1085 for awhile…….Mole you truly are a minor god…..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    what's a fomc day? announcements and news are not my main problem, only soft cash being sprayed to paint the market (even interst rates have to follow the market unless someone is spraying make belief money around)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you start calling mole a MINOR god and he'll get the ruller out

  • Tronacate

    Ok Ok……Mole-Zeus

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole's line has been SPX1085 not ES1085.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    for those paying attention to hamster time my line in the sand was broken down, and, ever so slightly, up in the backtest so far (that happened to be the perfect point or a reversal), so i should warn of a downtrend continuation and no higher highs… let's see

  • DudePlunger

    I do. As of now, I think today is the first FOMC day I've actually secured a profit. The announcement hasn't been made yet, so there is still plenty of time for me to blow out.

    Which is exactly why I'm off to get a haircut! Be back at 2PM for fun and excitement!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    You short or long into FOMC?

  • n2thezonez

    I'm not going to do anything until after Ben comes out and says exactly what we know he will say and exactly what he has said for months.

  • DudePlunger

    Short 1 /ES @ 1089
    Long 1 /NQ @ 1881

    Call it a light short. I was short 1092 from yesterday as well, added that 1089 short today on a break of yesterday's low, and took my 1092 short off @ 1082 for 10pts.

    BTW, mole made me realize on Monday I was trying to trade advanced synthetics……I entered my next two positions hedged immediately (short 1 /es, long 1 /nq), without trying to bid down below and sell up above, and have made back almost all my losses on Monday. Thanks a lot mole.

  • Tronacate

    EURJPY just keeps skiing down hill

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    spx:vix still not confirming fall (just touched support sma13)… but the hamster special is already below support

    yummi

  • raised_by_wolves

    (SLV/GLD)

    Weekly (bullish and bearish scenarios) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

    Five minute (bearish scenario) . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Good style for a range bound market.

  • raised_by_wolves

    ($SPX/$VIX)

    Daily “Centennial” support . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    basicaly you're stuck betwenn sma13 and sma104

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    much simpler sma13 support

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    btw did you hear me complaining about the previous 8 trading days?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ah ha. Thanks. So, simpler looks like this . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w

  • DudePlunger

    I've switched to trading spreads exclusively. I establish either 1-1 /ES vs. /NQ spread, or a 1-2. I only go short /es, and long /NQ.

    Intraday, I make decisions where to increase my leverage based on what's going on. Only when I increase my leverage do I put in stops.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, I caught a couple of your complaints (not all I'm sure) despite being mostly missing in action.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't you like it like it? i don't like two weeks but that's me

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    so have i, mia is fun

  • amokta

    what a joke looks like we will be making new recovery highs at this rate!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes… i'm afraid so, but i think this time someone's calling the bluff

  • BobbyLow

    What me worry? (Stolen from another website)

    I know news don't matter so why worry?

    “New-home sales plunge 33 pct with tax credits gone”

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100623/ap_on_bi_go

    http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sh

  • Tronacate

    If this continues we'll have a key outside weekly bearish reversal…….ES looks to be breaking down out of pennant

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah – great timing you guys – going MIA now that the fun is starting…

  • Tronacate

    SXCI puking it up

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sweet – but again equities lagging. But wait for a tiny bit of upside and we get 300 handles on the Dow :-))

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    A real haircut I hope…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What a shocker!

  • Bob the Horse

    Completely agree. The main thing that bothers me is that equities should be a lot lower with the 10yr at 3.10% and the Euro at these levels. A bear could not have asked for more over the last six months from supporting asset classes and yet has been given virtually no reward.

    Anyway, am off home to either celebrate or drown my sorrows over England. I reveal nothing.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See, that's my point. BUT after reading The Big Short and what poor Michael Burry went through after shorting sub prime I'm not surprised this drags out. Market in the hands of a connected elite – but they can only stave off the inevitable so long.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i never left, just had to take some time out of posting and intraday presence

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hope you don't need penalties πŸ˜‰

    p.s. portuguese here

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did you notice the VIV 28.6? HOD so far 28.55 and then droped

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    another top of some kind…. lower highs….all aboard?

  • amokta

    Folks, i am very dissapointed with todays P3 (!)
    My puts have hardly moved at all.

  • BobbyLow

    FOMC Days = Joke

    Like “the market” doesn't know what “they” are going to say.

    Sorry Boyz we can't lower rates any lower than 0. If we could throw in a little extra for you to take the money we would. So for now, we will keep rates at next to 0 as there is no wage inflation and we can continue to screw savers. So have at em Boyz.

    And then the market rallies (Wave 1) followed by a market sell off (Wave 2) and usually Wave 3 lasts into the close and is the one that tells if Bull Shit still rules or if it doesn't. (Of course sometimes these Waves are reversed to keep em guessing) πŸ™‚

    Just sayin

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    IYR is UP when SPX is red on a day when home sales sucked.

  • Scoops
  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Sounds like you were short England at the bookies !! LOL

  • ricebowl

    The market is pricing in the expected rate drop to -0.25% interest rates.

  • tradingmom

    Looks to me like a small cup w/ handle in process of forming right now in ES 5 min chart.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Are we painting a very teeny weeny bearish divergence on the ZL?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Wow.. we did pull back in a hurry after that minor divergence..

    Mind you.. all night last night, not a single 30m close above 1097. Keep an eye out for that level. A 30m candle close above 1097 could signal a break out from the consolidation since morning.

  • DudePlunger

    I am back, and we have not surprisingly rallied back to test 1089.

  • ricebowl

    Market looks ready to fall off a cliff. Dunno how low we go, but we're headed down again.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    How about some fat finger orders for values higher up – that may push us up 1-2 pts that we need to get to 1089.

    I don't think we will take out 1089.5 (yesterday's low) before FOMC.

    On a separate note, I have heard some chatter about QE 2.0 being in the works… today's poor housing data could be a good excuse for doing so..

  • DudePlunger

    Yup, I noticed that last night as well as I had an order in to sell 1100 all night. A lot of converging MA's and the pivot between 1098-1100.

  • tradingmom

    I think QE 2 is a very real possibility. maybe not today though — they like to give GS and friends lots of time to position properly first. Who knows … but I'm sure they've got something up their sleeve!

  • ricebowl

    To clarify: we keep bouncing above the 7-SMA on the 2-min chart only to get forced back below it, and the bounces are getting weaker and weaker. The 5-min is at the lower bollinger. The 30-min is at the 7-SMA. This is an excellent setup to see some real selling come in.

  • DudePlunger

    I'm not placing a trade until after FOMC announcement comes, the crazy volatility has subsided (takes about 10-15minutes), and we have a clear setup where I can actually manage my risk properly.

    I'm not sure which way it will go. I can see a flush lower to 1070-1065 and then a hard bounce back to 1100, or the exact opposite. This 1070-1100 zone is filled with lies and deception and I refuse to place bets until the market tips its hand.

  • Tronacate

    BP lost control of the collector……sub collision

  • jigdaddy

    it looks like that is when real volume will come into market..

  • amokta

    What?

  • amokta

    How high is the cliff?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    k100% on fast w%r(at) again at zero… spx at resistence for today (updated sma13) and upper intraday bb

    we have a qualified top and a nice one too

  • n2thezonez

    I had been leaning towards taking a long position in my buy zone, in the area of SPX 1086. It visited there this morning, but I wanted to wait until post-Fed or at least right before Fed.

    Now they have front-ran me and the SPX is at 1092. Were too many people thinking the same thing and the anticipated post-Fed bounce is going to get dramatically faded? A bit of a quandry, could be overthinking it.

  • gsavli

    last time i think it was flat after fomc announcement. no stupid games, was kinda weird.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Get ready for Quantitative Easing (QE) 2.0

  • aussiebinlaughin

    QE. 2.0, with many more to follow is all but a certainty IMO, however current political and public sentiment towards bail outs will now make it a lot harder to pass for the time being. So, only guessing of course, I think that we can expect another 'save the world' package to arrive when things get ugly in equities too. They will wait to they smell the fear, with the view that it will be far easier in that atmosphere to sell away our future and get the printing presses working again, ala Japanese style. Long term, we have a stark choice between default on the current and future debt pile, or to provide stimulas after stimulas until they destroy the value of their debt (and the $).

    Of course, the other alternative is that we simply continue to 'recover', growth and earnings exceed expectations and we and the rest of the world simply pay off a massive 30 year credit binge without a problem!

  • gsavli

    toady's NQ chart, S/R lines engineered by germans:

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-A659_4C223A1C.html

  • BobbyLow

    I kinda did the opposite by getting closer to market neutral to get through the possible gyrations of the announcement.

    Also try to see the 3 waves which happens a lot on FOMC after the announcement which is something like up – down – up or down – up – down with the third wave usually the strongest.

    I think not much happened last month however I've found the three wave concept to be real but you have to be quick and are subject to all kinds of head fakes.

    Good luck

  • DudePlunger

    I remember that day, I was short the euro and lost $900. That was back in late March wasn't it?

  • DudePlunger

    I am market neutral as well being long /es and short /nq.

  • gsavli

    i think so.

  • Long_John_Silver

    Haha!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    No chatter about RIMM earnings tonight.. I guess no one cares about RIMM anymore.

  • DudePlunger

    Got my CNBC on, don't know about the rest of you but I think Erin Burnett is their best anchor (and the sexiest.)

  • Clint

    My vote for the sexiest go to Trish Regan.But Erin is a real smart cookie,and also quite attractive as well. (IMO )

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Just noticed that SPX range for the day has been just 10 points – WOW..

    We might be back at VWAP by the time Fed announcement comes out.

  • bshah

    so what's happening…? Surprise still goes on.. Let's get moving…. Benny..

  • Tooncez

    spy options bid ask went bonkers too.

  • Tronacate

    Pretty couple of bear flags on the ES……

  • ricebowl

    Oh ye of little faith.

    To be fair, it was indeed a bad call. πŸ˜‰

  • BobbyLow

    I went against my grain and actually listened to the statement and it said absolutely nothing except we are still in deep do do.

    I quickly turned the TV off though because I didn't want to hear every single word explained over and over again.

  • DudePlunger

    Very solid decisions there. What's the gameplan bobby? We staying market neutral until there's actually a clear indication?

  • DudePlunger

    Just sold 1085, stopping 1090 on my 1089 contract. Short 2 /ES, long 1 /NQ.

  • ricebowl

    Am I mistaken in believing that FOMC comes at 14:30? Looks like someone has material inside information.

  • Tooncez

    My cheat-sheet said 14:15.

  • tradingmom

    My zero lite signal has a funny gap in it. RB — announcement was at 2:15.

  • ricebowl

    Ok–thanks. That explains a lot.

  • DudePlunger

    And I got stopped, and got triggered on an /NQ long. Now light long.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Benny going anal with the bears… looks like.. ouch

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    No signal on ZL

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    LOL – you must be like WTF happened to the markets….

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    First stop will be 200d MA = 1107ES

  • gsavli

    what did he promise this time? negative rates?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The move up has nothing do with FOMC… Market went down below 1106ES on very weak ZL signal.. so very likely it goes back up to 1106ES

  • Tronacate

    Zero not confirming this up move…….more BS it appears

  • BobbyLow

    I'm running two approaches simultaneously in my trading account. This morning I legged into the short half of my remaining Long December Put Spread. So these are pretty much set with Long Dec 105P and Long Dec 90P while being Short Dec 100P, Dec 95P and Dec 80P. My Risk/Reward Ratio on these is 1 to 3.5.

    I have tried to get to a similar set up on IWM but am having problems doing so so I might junk IWM.

    I have Long August ATM Calls on SPY and IWM to help stay in balance.

    Right now I think we are still in Wave 1, so I probably won't do anything until sometime after 3 PM.

    Right now the IV which dropped right after has screwed me out of valuation at least temporarily.

    But that is to be expected because the Option Market Makers Mantra is how do I screw thee, let me count the ways. πŸ™‚

  • Clint

    This thing still wants to stay in this tight range. It's almost like you have to fade every 100 pt move,either direction, no matter what it looks like,as they keep pulling the old 'bait & switch' on both sides. ho hum.

  • BobbyLow

    Oh I almost forgot with the premium money I got for writing the December 80's, I bought some March 65's to go along with my March 60's. These are as Mole puts it my Lottery Tickets.

  • ricebowl

    Fractal might be forming on the daily. Look at May 13-17. Today corresponds to May 17.

  • LilSpaniard

    Is zero lite updating?

  • bleefis

    Zero feed dead?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    If you look carefully, ZL is not functional from before FOMC announcement.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I dont think ZL is updating anymore.

  • Tronacate

    This is really kind of funny……..all hyped about low rates like it's a new deal…….

    Short 1 ES and 1NQ….both green now…….a little early

  • BobbyLow

    Mine is working

  • amokta

    tell me what is the link between futures and the cash – are futures completely abstract, and if so theoretically they diverge in price if enough bidders/sellers on a future

  • Tronacate

    Mine's working too

  • BobbyLow

    VIX is jumping all over the place.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    5th set of some men's singles game is tied 49-49 at wimbledon

  • gsavli

    rotflmao.

  • ricebowl

    Yes. As a derivative, you can calculate the value of the futures, but if a bunch of buyers cram into the market, they can ramp the price. It's just like the ETFs (UPRO, SSO, SPY, SPXU, SDS, & SH); they can diverge in price for a period of time when people trade large blocks, but they always converge back on the NAV.

  • ricebowl

    Pretty much. I figured that if the market moved *that* much in front of the announcement, then someone was doing some insider trading, but I just had the wrong time.

  • amokta

    thanks
    wimbledon 2vbreak pts!

  • tradingmom

    My zero is not updating. It isn't just “at zero.”

  • Tronacate

    Fractual on ES daily looks more like Jan 6 2009 corresponding to 6/21 candle………

  • amokta

    wake me when we break 666

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I still believe that if we are to go down big, we won't do so before shaking out the folks who shorted the breach of 200d MA yesterday at 1106-7 ES

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    You might have to be cryogenically preserved then πŸ™‚

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Same here.. zero lite is NOT updating for me

  • amokta

    cant wait that long!
    anyway GLD not up today

  • DudePlunger

    I think it's updating, it just looks to be painting a 0.

  • Tooncez

    We can infer from the mole lite that it is effectively zero. Although I see a gap near 11:15.

  • BobbyLow

    I agree with the 23 Second News Factor Mole.

    But if I dare to be logical, eventually the news that will find its way into the tape is that you can not have a vibrant economy without decent paying jobs, an overpriced housing market, consumer credit priced at loan shark rates at the CC level along with incidious types of cost push inflation that doesn't factor into government statistics.

    This is what keeps me a Bear. However, I try no longer be a Dumb Bear screwing around this market without some protection in the form of Longs to help keep me in the game. πŸ™‚

  • DudePlunger

    “This is what keeps me a Bear. However, I try no longer be a Dumb Bear screwing around this market without some protection in the form of Longs to help keep me in the game. :)”

    Touche'.

  • shortcover

    TBT pushing for 52-week lows…

  • Bob the Horse

    Just remember equities reflect the nominal economy, not the real economy.

  • Sleepynaptime

    Mole, Regarding the decision you mentioned on your December puts; what is important about the next few days that factors into your making a decision? Wondering about what factors into your time frame that makes this week important, instead of another week or month?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Still looking for 1106-1107 at a minimum

  • DudePlunger

    Today? You could be right? I had a tough day, gave back my morning profit, now light long risking pennies on my final lot.

  • gsavli

    what do you think of rising TLT?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Not today by even wildest stretch of imagination.. But certainly expecting 1106-1107 before 1080 is breached.. At the same time, open mind says that I could be proved wrong in next 30 mins

  • DudePlunger

    It's a flip of a coin here. This FOMC reaction has been very very choppy.

  • BobbyLow

    Oh I remember it well.

    And if we are to continue with this Faux Recovery wouldn't Helicopter Ben's strategy of dropping dollars down from the sky have to work?

    I just can't see how it will work without inflation filtering into wages.

    Call me crazy but what I'm seeing now is just another “new paradym” similar to the “Internet completely replacing Brick and Mortar” circa 2001, Land and housing will always appreciate in value” circa 2006, “Sub Prime is contained”, circa 2007?

    Please believe me when I say I do not wish calamity on our economy or any other economy either. But what I believe is that our economy never had a chance to completely bottom out going back all the way back to 2002.

    And sooner or later we will have to pay the price and out of the ashes I pray that a real economy is born.

    JMHO

  • ricebowl

    Bonds rejecting all of this. Bonds say to sell. Very interesting.

  • jigdaddy

    did he close them out??

  • Bob the Horse

    That should be bearish no doubt about it but someone is nagging me about the whole bond equity thing right now. Yields are saying deflation but the curve (i.e. 2/10s) is still steep. That is true even in Europe – where deflationary pressure is most intense. I have been churning this over in my mind but overall I think it is basically telling us that people are pushing out rate hike forecasts so the front end is flattening and that is pulling down the back end. If there was true deflationary fear, we would see the curve flattening.

  • Rayden

    “So these are pretty much set with Long Dec 105P and Long Dec 90P while being Short Dec 100P, Dec 95P and Dec 80P.” – You are long more options than you are short, regardless of strike, I hope? (unlimited risk blah blah)

    What you're describing sounds like a 105/100/95/90 condor, except for the short 80s. Max payoff will be if the price at expiration is between 95 and 100. It behaves sort of like a short butterfly between now and then, but the change with changes in the underlying will be even more muted. Also, once prices move into that range, high volatility will hurt you. I'd model this carefully if I were you… come September with S&P at 950 and VIX at 55, you might not like how this spread behaves πŸ™‚

  • gsavli

    thx.

  • lululopez

    Copper doesn't seem to be buying it, either.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – look at TBT – dropping like a rock. Who are you gonna believe – bonds or the Fed? πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So far still inside that expanding diagonal. Although that swing higher yesterday made me a tad nervous.

  • gsavli

    FED is gay.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why are you doing this to yourself? LOL :-))

    You had a win this morning – which was the time to walk away. Such youthful exuberance…. hehehehe

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not about closing them out – just for the record. It's about ROLLING THEM OVER. And no – not yet.

  • Scoops

    You guys have to see the back and forth between BAM Investor and the twitter troll BUM Investor.

    http://twitter.com/BUMinvestor

    http://twitter.com/BAMinvestor

    Also, if you didn't know, Richard Russell is tweeting.

    http://twitter.com/DowTheoryMan

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just the type of pattern I would expect – should we fail to breach the 1085 mark by Friday.

  • jigdaddy

    Are you thinking about rolling them over to march or something?

  • DudePlunger

    You are 100% right, the right trade was to place no trade and keep on my morning position all day. I just keep making mistakes and picking myself back up. I over traded the FOMC, I didn't stick to my plan, and that hurt me. That's really the only thing that ever hurts me, whenever I stick to my plan and stay disciplined, I manage my losses very well and consistently take profits. But once I stray, I find myself stuck and mess up.

  • gsavli

    now wtf is that?

  • amokta

    what is what?

  • BobbyLow

    Actually my Long 105's match an equal number of contracts of 1/2 Short 100's and 1/2 Short 95's. My total amount at risk is a net debit of $1.69. My total maximum gain is the average difference of $7.50. My maximum net gain is $7.5 – 1.69 = $5.81 per share. This is a 3.4 to 1 Reward to Risk Ratio.

    My Long 90 Puts have a matching set of Short 80 Puts. The Maximum Loss here is my net debit of $3.74 – $1.62 = $2.12.
    My Maximum Gain on this spread is $10 – $2.12 = $8.38.
    This Spread has a Reward to Risk Ratio of 3.95 to 1.

    There is no maintenance requirements on any of these positions and if the Vix is at 50 in September than my Lottery Tickets of the 60's and 65's should be in very good shape.

  • gsavli

    there was a wild swing in futures for few seconds (at least NQ). looked just like those FED guys came back and said once more that rates won't be hiked.

  • amokta

    ok
    my prediction for tomorrow – what about a surprise gap-up ppt attack!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My next car:

    http://www.teslamotors.com/models/index.php

    No, I don't like flashy – this car is perfect. It's the type of sedan I have been waiting for.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I for one – would not be surprised πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Let me suggest a gym membership. That and lots of pussy. We need to get you to work off all that testosterone.

    Now seriously – don't make trading an ego thing. It's not about winning against the market – you will lose that game. Be humble – recognize your limitations. Know when you don't know. Stay small – and you will win big.

    Just some thoughts from an older dog who went through all the emotions already. Let me shave 10 years off your learning cycle πŸ˜‰

  • amokta

    hoping for down day, but weve had so many gapper-uppers!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's what I said – timing this beast is difficult. I just don't want to get into too much theta burn. Thus far I'm five months out and I don't want to cut it too close. I'll know more by Friday – of course by then it may be too late (i.e. we may have gapped up and I may be locked into those bastards).

  • gsavli

    with everyone expecting spanish inquisition, they could be late.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Chinese have been selling the long end and buying the short end instead. Maybe that's a contributing factor…

  • DudePlunger

    Got a gym membership and a girlfriend, covered both there. πŸ˜€

    And you are correct, when I stay away from making trading an ego thing, I win big. When I get out of control, as I did after taking a small planned lose during FOMC, it becomes an ego thing to make back the losses and hit the move. That's what kills me. I will focus each and every day on improving my discipline by focusing on my gameplan and managing my risk and executions properly without flip flopping when I am wrong and the market goes crazy.

    Stay in control when everything around you is out of control. Or something like that.

  • ricebowl

    The US 30-year has been rallying, though. If the Chinese are selling the 10-year and 30-year notes to buy 1-year and shorter duration, then we should see 30-year rates rising. Unless you can point a flaw out in my logic…

  • Sleepynaptime

    Theta burn is what I wondered about. Wasn't sure if there was anything significant, timewise, about five months out (or this specific week) versus another time which marks the beginning in an increase for the rate of burn.

  • Graphite

    While the cash markets are open there are about a thousand proprietary trading shops trying to arbitrage any differences that pop up between the cash markets (whether SPY or the underlying stocks that comprise the index) and the futures, and they tend to iron out any discrepancies within seconds. It's sort of like that old joke about the economist denying that there's a $20 bill lying on the sidewalk … with a profit opportunity like that, someone would have picked it up already!

  • n2thezonez

    I'm digging that as well. Haven't heard of that manufacturer before.

  • sloth_bear

    Seats 7 people?

  • BobbyLow

    Rayden,

    One thing I forgot to mention is that while my Longer Term Positions are “set”, I also run similar spreads on a short term basis which I like to call Bastardized Butterfly Condor Spreads (LOL) that never stay together for very long. I've found it is better for me to be trading in and out of these constantly taking advantage when given the chance to buy volatility when it is low and selling volatility when it is high.

    So basically my job is to manage the Greeks on a daily basis.

    Thanks again for pointing out the importance of Vega some time back. As you pointed out Vega can really hurt an account especially if it's not at least tried to be managed.

  • amokta

    ok. yes i forget, futures are not assets in themselves, but contracts to buy/sell something at a future time point for a set price, so naturally there must be some 'middleware' processes tying them to the cash markets

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Btw, that game at wimbledon got suspended due to bad light at 59-59… It will resume tomorrow.

  • Rayden

    “Yields are saying deflation but the curve (i.e. 2/10s) is still steep.” – could this be because of a non-zero chance of default in the more distant future?

  • amokta

    Seats seven pygmies or one big german person πŸ™‚

  • elliott_surfs

    starting @ 50k – very nice.

  • Rayden

    Short term call:
    * Bottom of Minor 1 was Jun 8 at 1042 (70% chance; truncated in the SPX, but it has the right feel; alternate May 25)
    * Minor 2 will be a plain zigzag (70% chance; alternates: flat, combination, …; for a variety of reasons they do not appeal, although a double zigzag is also ok; quite similar to but not quite the same as Mole's Green scenario)
    * Minute a of 2 was 1042 to 1131, b (just finished, or finished very soon, like tomorrow) was 1131 to 1085, top of c if c=a will be 1174-1177; c should be done in about 2 weeks +/-.

    Best alternate:
    * Bottom of Minor 1 was May 25 at 1040 (30% chance)
    * Minor 2 was a flat which finished at 1131 (70% chance assuming the previous)
    * currently in microscopic 4 of tiny 1 of … of Minor 3 (yeah, I made up the small degrees)

    Trading accordingly. Mostly in cash, some put backspreads (legged in, long side entered at 1125, short at 1090). I plan to do a “top kill” on the market above 1170 if the other indicators agree.

  • amokta

    hope you dont work for BP – or your top-kill process may need refining!

    cant log into ewi stu otherwise would tell you what they think

  • Rayden

    P.S. For god's sake, don't go long here. It's like ordering one more cocktail on the Titanic when you *know* you're on the damn Titanic, because “you know it won't sink that fast”. Backspreads are appropriate here – or even strangles, short butterflies, whatever – but being outright long (if you believe the big picture count) is just terminally dumb considering we *could* be sub 900 in one day any time now.

  • Rayden

    ok whatever, nuke it from orbit then πŸ˜‰

  • Rayden

    P.S. Also: if the preferred scenario above is happening, the dollar should trace an abc down matching exactly the Minor 2 abc up; target 83-ish. Gold but probably not silver would make new highs.

  • amokta

    ewi stu “The initial subdivisions of Minor wave 3 down are unfolding. The best view of the short-term wave structure indicates that further selling pressure and lower prices are directly ahead.”
    nb they have alternatives, and they frequently change the road map using the reas-view mirror (so dont bet the farm-house just yet!)
    also they are of the view that gold and silver may be topping now (mid you they have been saying that since the BigBang)
    dollar, they say we are in a 'b'up of an abc corection downwards

  • chronographics

    Roadster for me Mole, they are awesome!

  • Rayden

    of course that's what they'd say, lol.

    “initial subdivisions of Minor wave 3” – and they're so sure minor 2 is done because?… um… oh yeah. now, if we had a >68% retrace, or even deeper, and it looked like an obvious 3 with Fib-related internal subdivisions, ok, you might think it is getting close, but a 50% retrace on a wave 2 which looks like a big mess? possible but not a sure thing by any stretch, definitely sub 50% probability in my book.

    “dollar, they say we are in a 'b'up of an abc corection downwards” – and equities are about to go down hard as the dollar does its c wave down, *does not compute*. it might, not the way to bet though.

  • amokta

    i might have mis-qouted them on the dollar re degree of waves. anyway, they are bullish on dollar overall, but say we are in an downward correction for a period

  • ricebowl

    I concede that it's much flashier, but it's also cheaper, and how cool would it be to drive the Jetsons' car:

    http://www.aptera.com/

    Being German, I'm sure you can appreciate fine engineering. I think I would actually buy one of these, but I'm turned off to electric cars because of battery replacements.

  • ricebowl

    More likely because of the low interest rate environment. There is no demand for long-term debt except from the Fed. Interestingly, though, the 30-year note has come down somewhere around 100 basis points since early May.