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Welcome Back!

by The MoleNovember 30, 2015

I hope you enjoyed a few days off – I certainly did and although I would love to boast that I spent my time productively I mostly wound up catching up with a few shows and training with my guys. Even Mole the machine needs to recharge his batteries every once in a while. However there’s only so much idle time I can tolerate and I intend to hit the ground running here as we are now heading into one of the most exciting periods of the year. So snap out of your tryptophan induced slumbers and let’s get to work!

2015-11-30_spoos_

On the equities side we are holding strong and you should move your stop below the 25-day SMA around 2077. We are now facing medium term overhead resistance which will take a bit of doing to be overcome. If we fail here then we may just spend another week or so correcting – and if we do then 2065 is where I would expect the bulls to stage a first line of defense.

2015-11-30_AUDCHF_update

AUD/CHF update – looking very good here as quite a few top callers were caught with their pants down. However now momentum needs to keep leading higher and we may see a first correction. I put my stop near 0.74 in order to lock in a bit of profit but allow enough room for an obligatory shake out.

2015-11-30_GBPAUD_update

Speaking of the Ozzi Dollar, our GBP/AUD campaign is looking… well… sideways. I know we’re going to see a big move here shortly (the hourly BBs are compressed tight) but I may have been a bit early when going long. My entry was well placed however and the sideways range affords us more and more context to get positioned. So I’m staying long here with my original ISL and will flip short if daily support gets taken out. I’ll keep you posted here.

2015-11-30_AUDCAD

AUD/CAD – taking out a long position in anticipation of a possible run higher. I mostly like the weekly panel which appears to consolidate here above weekly resistance.

More setups waiting below the fold:

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That ought to get you guys going! Now have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Lifted off the Slope this morning. So first gold was a great buy opportunity at $1800 because you know the Fed and stuff and the Dollar was about to blow up. And now it’s a great opportunity below 1100 without any technical context backing it up. It truly seems there is a perpetual supply of suckers out there…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You should really stay off of Slope, it will rot your finely tuned brain.

    As for context, I see no reason to touch the stuff as long as it’s under the 45 weekly MA.
    Hell, the RSI isn’t even under 30 yet.

    Like you always said, you don’t HAVE to trade it, find something better.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93170563307

    -GG

  • Kishore Kumar

    Mole, were you part of the team that worked on ProphetCharts? There was gold in those charts! Also, Tim once said that his best investment was his house that the charts built. I was once taken by Tim’s overwhelmingly open personality and the “wisdom” of his followers, but it has been more than a year since I visited the Slope. It is not good to be perpetual anything, pessimist or optimist.

    As I have learned from you, we must stay in tune with the market itself. You have also helped me to recognize my own addiction and I am staying away from trading till I assimilate and internalize total clarity of my past mistakes and a personally viable trading process. Recovery is slow as the new thought patterns take time to become habits. If and when I do restart, it will be not be intraday but for longer time frames because I want to trade only by consciously applying my trading rules until, at least, it becomes a habit. It s more than an intellectual exercise. It has to be a repetitive, factual exercise!

  • mugabe

    The problem with gold is when it’s a macro or ideological trade. I got in for this reason, quite heavily, many years ago (about 10% of all my assets at one time) and hung out online with some gold bugs (moderate to extreme). When I started scaling out because the charts were screaming get out, I almost felt like a heretic when I posted what I was doing. I think that speaks volumes about the sect mentality (which I’d obviously bought into to some extent).
    I certainly didn’t nail the top, but I got out in time to make a tidy profit. I’ve still got a residual position (about $10,000) which I will sell if we get a big bounce into important resistance. If not, the position is small enough not to cause me any undue worry.

  • mugabe

    A big warnnig sign is when someone seems to think that the trading universe basically comprises gold, silver and miners (and possibly other ‘hard assets’).

  • tradingmom

    Mole — my hourly smoothed zero panel isn’t updating. All the others are fine.

  • Billabong

    You may want to hold … futures and physical are starting to show a divergence. Physical commissions on gold have started to move up indicating buying pressure. There is a big difference between using physical gold for wealth diversification and trading for ST profits in futures or ETFs.

  • Darkthirty

    Exactly! OTOH USD is topping, PMs bottoming. Didn’t run the charts….just a glance

  • mugabe

    Yeah, I’ve had this 10K on its own for more than 6 months now. Not in any hurry, and never look at the gold chart unless it’s been on a tear – obviously not the case recently 🙂
    I sort of started out with gold as wealth diversification/ insurance, but changed my mind when the bull market ended 🙂
    I can think of other things for wealth diversification, preferably something that pays some sort of dividend / regular payment e.g. a cheap flat, a parking space, etc.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Probably has to do with the lack of data during the Thanksgiving holiday. Let’s give it a day or so to update.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually this was the one time I dropped by there – I haven’t been there for weeks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No I never worked for or with Tim Knight – it’s not a bad product IMO. Only problem is that the version inside TOS is obsolete.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys are falling on top of each other today!! Where’s my crew? Stretching the weekend a bit it seems…

  • mugabe

    re day trading, I also read something to the effect that the brain is like a muscle and gets tired with constant use … not everyone can take the fast level of decision-making and high level of concentration required by day-trading .. emotional issues, aside

    edit: from my few visits, the comments stream at the slope is a joke

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Recovery is slow as the new thought patterns take time to become habits.”

    This is basically the gist of it, Kishore – establishing good habits also takes longer than establishing self destructive or addictive habits. Part of running this blog is holding myself to a higher standard – so it’s my own way of keeping myself in check.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am taking a break from participation until after I complete some homework Scott gave me to do. I had a 4 day weekend and spend all of the time working on my house. My deadline to get the house in order was Christmas. Sunday night at 11PM I started looking into Scotts exercise. If it seems like I died, that is where I went. Hope you all have pleasant Holidays!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Okay, cool – keep it up!

  • Billabong

    Did you see the weighting? US stayed the same around 41%, China at 11% and Japan/England/Euro took a big cut.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey did you guys hear about The Big Short being released as a movie? Loved the book – this looks like a pretty good adaption:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWr8hbUkG9s

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Reportedly Brad Pitt publicly denounced ‘bankers’ and that they should be really held accountable for their actions … http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/confidential/brad-pitt-angry-banking-industry-article-1.2445048

  • mugabe

    dunno .. a look at the euro/dollar chart doesn’t show any inkling of a bottoming process. the yen is the only one that looks like it might be forming a base.

  • mugabe

    bill black’s senate testimony said it all:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8CqaHTygSc

    must-watch if you haven’t seen it (I’m sure most have)

  • TheRooster

    It’s amazing how many people read the book and take away an entirely different message to the one I took….

  • TheRooster

    “you don’t HAVE to trade it, find something better”

    love this GG

  • ridingwaves

    BPitt looks kind of like Robert Redford in 3 Days of the Condor in that still picture above

    I’m definitely going to see it, this will be the first time most of American public will get a close look at what took place back then…..hope you all are doing great and life is treating you all well….not trading but had a great hike where I caught this bobcat laying in the sun….lucky catch

    http://s10.postimg.org/p4f1qduix/CSC_0959.jpg

  • Scott Phillips

    If you need help hit me up on gchat 888rewards at gmail dot com 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    The author of this article is actually a real life buddy of mine. Great guy, terrible trader and he admits it. He made a fortune in real world business, and had a lucky break making a big (genuinely big) score in options when he first started trading.

    He would be the first to tell you he’s a terrible trader 🙂

  • Scott Phillips

    That physical/futures gap is a complete load of shit.

    You can buy at the CME spot price any time you want, CME is all set up for delivery of physical gold. They even have physically delivered gold in Hong Kong and China http://investor.cmegroup.com/investor-relations/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=889650

    In Bangkok you can buy physical assayed at 96% pure for exactly 96% of the CME close price previous day, with a $5.50 spread between buy and sell.

    There categorically is NO DIFFERENCE between the physical and paper price, except that retailers are trying to gouge gold bugs in the USA.

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s a trend. It’s at a double top.

    Statistically double tops are rare, the higher probability is another leg up.

  • BKXtoZERO

    You are awesome! Thanks. I already ran into something but I want to figure it out myself unless I really get stuck.

  • mugabe

    One of the problems with gold is that no one knows what its fair price is, so how can you know if the price is ‘discounted’ to fair value? At least with stocks, if you’re a good value investor, you can have an idea of a stock’s intrinsic worth … of course, that’s a very big if.

  • Scott Phillips

    Don’t be afraid to throw away your ideas. I threw a promising one away yesterday.

    Good traders don’t have better ideas than average traders, they have MORE of them.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • BKXtoZERO

    alright, since you are so unbelievably kind…. to get the price data, are you eyeballing candles or 2) running a mouse over candles which reports open/high/low/close, or… 3) are you downloading the raw numbers in spreadsheet form?
    I am not too bad with spreadsheets and so far I am leaning to that. I have these ideas regarding not only price but volume above or below a threshold as partial stop trip indicator as well as bollingers and MAs. For example a cross of 2 moving averages or touch of a bollinger is a buy or sell UNTIL another touch elsewhere with a qualifier that volume be above some average number etc. I should probably just start with something easier even though I expect nothing from it purely as an exercise to get through the process period so it won’t take me forever to grasp your concept. Thanks for following up on my lame ass. I really don’t expect to dig in with the time that this requires and deserves until after I have my girls bedroom and ours done so we can stop sleeping in the living room. My goal was for a Christmas tree where our bed currently sits 😉 BK