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We’ve Got Movement!
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We’ve Got Movement!

by The MoleMarch 1, 2019

Good news all across the front! First up it’s finally March and the most hated month of the year (February) is finally behind us. Here in Valencia the weather forecast is predicting – get this – Β 79 degrees Fahrenheit for this weekend, so it’s going to be nothing short of delightful. My condolences to all of you poor sobs who are still toughing it out over on the East Coast and in particular in the Pacific North West.

Alright, and second it’s Friday which in the evil lair means it’s pizza night. Mrs. Evil and I recently started a new routine: Every Friday we make a pizza from scratch, as we just can’t find a decent one here in Valencia (sorry Spaniards – stick with jamΓ³n and tapas).

The first one we made really sucked but after I talked Mrs. Evil out of using her stupid organic whole grain flower and instead switched to the industrially produced bleached good stuff it’s coming along very nicely. The trick is in preparing the dough several hours before and really letting the yeast do its thing. Yum!

Unfortunately we don’t have a wood fired oven, so I’m not even legally permitted to call it a pizza or face the risk of Fat Tony swinging by to break my knees. So let’s just call it a well prepared Italian cheese pie.

More good news: Equities are on the move again after stealthily having pushed their way higher overnight. The reasons given in the MSM are the meeting with Kim Jong Un as well as a the prospect of finalizing the long awaited trade deal with China.

As the tape was sort of meandering all over the place near an inflection point this is exactly the sort of excuse that could trigger another massive short squeeze. We are not there just yet but it’s looking promising.

I’m not entering long here, in case you wonder, as the odds of a retest are pretty decent. With all that volatility recently we have to be careful not to get drawn into the swings. You know the drill πŸ˜‰

My crude campaign is in good shape now after having survived a stop run by just a tick or two. Trail now goes to break/even and Bob’s your uncle. The daily panel is still looking mixed as the SMA is pointing down, so let’s not get too excited just yet.

The EUR/USD campaign ended yesterday, literally an hour after I posted my update. Out with 2.2R isn’t too shabby plus I’m never sad to see down candles in the Euro. Everyone wins! Which of course means mostly me.

Before I close up shop for the weekend, here’s a special goodie for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’d love to see a retrace on the hourly to the 25 and 100 sma around 2792. I have a daily pivot at 2793.

    Back in the late 80’s I was in Rome with a navy buddy, and we had what we decided was the best pizza in the world at some little restaurant near the Colosseum. He wrote home to his wife about it, and included an ingredient list as best we could tell.

    I caught up with him about 3 years ago, and he’s spent his life perfecting his version of that pie. So much so, that he has a wood fired oven in his backyard. He told me he gets it up to about 700Β°F and can cook a pie in a couple of minutes flat. All his friends want him to go into business, but he doesn’t want to ruin the fun. Good for him, I say.

  • phantomflash

    In that case maybe he could just license the know-how to someone else and let them have all the hassles of running a business, while he gets a percentage.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Except for the first minute…TICK has been close to, or under zero all morning…so far

  • Sp00nman

    Interesting price action today. Big gap up that looks to have been sold into and we’re back to the prior day’s high. Internals have been falling steadily since the open.

  • Darkthirty

    Pakis and Indians, dots not feathers…

  • Sp00nman

    I don’t see that RB..? TICKs opened and stayed above zero till ~10am est. They were trending lower off the open.

  • Jay Thomas

    “My condolences to all of you poor sobs who are still toughing it out over on the East Coast and in particular in the Pacific Northwest.”
    Shut up. (grumble grumble)

  • BobbyLow

    IMO, most news events have only a very short term affect on market movement. I also believe that this short term affect is because of the short term memory of markets.

    Let’s take for example, Monday’s drop in oil that was reported to be primarily initiated by the President’s comments to OPEC which said something to the effect of how rising oil prices are bad for the world. Oil Price dropped substantially that day and then began to gradually rise the next day and eventually 3 days later reached a price higher than where price was prior to when the drop began. Did anything change regarding high oil prices being bad for the world over this time period? Nope. Then today it appears that oil prices began to deteriorate sometime around the Europe Open then bounced back a little on the China BS and then sold off again and now what will they do? I have no idea. I’m still carrying a Bull Spread although I might reduce the Bull side before the day is over.

    The bottom line is that I believe that all of the above is part of BobbyLow’s Axiom #1 – The Markets are completely full of Shit at all times. πŸ™‚

    And the beat goes on. This morning perhaps we had an “assumed” coming soon to a theater near you, China Trade Deal Equity Rally #2,133 only to dissapate perhaps due to a Consumer Confidence Report lower than expected? Where do we go from here? Tune in Ladies and Gentlemen and price will let us know.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gluten Morning, I bought back my larger TVIX position that I sold yesterday. My Spidey senses were correct, I missed the ES high but got the little bounce, 29.5 or so

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Just cos it’s Friday – someone who follows EW (bull) postulates that this rally up is Wave 1 – – imminent wave 2 down (scary and sucks in bears) before wave 3 up to new highs..and beyond..
    I guess ties in with the Chief’s idea of a scary downturn to 2650…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Thanks for the post Homemade pizza Yum ! SPX Looks like a back test and failure of the broken lower trend line of the wedge. As mentioned before unreal that there has not been a greater degree of profit taking. The rising 13 ema has contained all pullbacks
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Very stealthy little sell off so far…. just for entertainment, pretending you are a short term EW following bull, where was a 5 down? every time you thought you saw it, you would have been wrong….. or I was anyway

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Today a back test and pullback from the lower trend line of the broken wedge.2813 down to 2775 was a 3 wave correction. But the bounce from 2775 to today’s high does not appear impulsive i.e. 5 waves
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Since February 21 all bounces have been at the 60 min 55 ema Pattern recognition. Bears must break the 60 min 55 ema
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    I’m looking at a Fidelity chart for “.tic.n” (must be some stranger Fidelity derivative)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just got back from the gym. CRIKEY! What a roller coaster!

  • Sp00nman

    Strange that they’re that far off.. I’m not familiar w/ fidelity. I’m using $TICK from TDA.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mmmh – I’m actually considering entering soon. Let’s see if we get a retest of the lows…

  • Sp00nman

    Hmm, maybe it’s the first derivative of NYSE TICK? If it was negative since the open that would explain it. Interesting.

  • BKXtoZERO

    You are going to hold over the weekend? 9 week guarantee for you so far

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief IMO very careful as today’s gap up was sold into this resistance zone
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mmmmhhh – okay, I’ll proceed cautiously then πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good point actually… let me see how the rest of the session unfolds.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    More snow today in the Big Sky Current temp 24 degrees Last night 8 below. Sunday the projected high is 2 below and 20 below for the low.Ice skating tonight at the Bozeman ponds. Love it !
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    I shorted ES at “the top” this morning, but this low-volume low-participation buying spree for 10 handles starting at 12pm EST has me a bit nervous

  • Ronebadger

    Join the club…

  • Sp00nman

    Don’t worry, it was probably him shorting volatility at ~12pm EST. πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re welcome darling. I think Mo or Tue I’ll do a full mamo update. Today’s tape leaves open several scenarios, so before I take action I need to get my bearings.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty

    PPT holding it up

  • BobbyLow

    Been getting little twinges of “Slice and Dice” Mode.

    In the meantime, my Oil Bull Spread was changed to a Bear Spread earlier today.

    Iffy – Choppiness = “Primum non nocere” time more than ever.

  • zzezzezz

    F*ck

  • BobbyLow

    I think some might agree that we need to get this “China Deal” behind us one way or another. Until this matter is resolved, we’re probably going to get mini-rallies every time some pol says a deal is close. What has been happening is similar to what happens during almost every geo-political “crisis”. Eventually this crisis will end one way or another and we’ll have some peace in the markets until the next crisis begins.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    I stopped out if tvix while at work. Stop hit for .40 loss. Holding small amount but sure looks threatening for rip up. Mostly standing aside and trying day shots. No longer trying to buid daily position

  • HD

    17 HanDle rally of the LOD 2804

  • bankwalker

    short /YM

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY 10 min chart Anyone that shorted the gap up sold into this a.m IMO was a good trade. The failure at 4th candle from left below VWAP and overbought all time frames.Remember if you know why you made the trade OK Only if you do not know why you made the trade then not OK If wrong then not wrong long Shown SPY 10 min chart from open and again the 4th candle failure from the left and below VWAP Then the bounce near the 60 min 55 ema as alluded to in post below. Since February 21 all bounces have occurred at the 60 min 55 ema JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’m sad I’m missing out on skiing for the rest of the season. We even had a few good powder days here in SW Michigan. I ripped a bicep tendon a month ago, so no lifting for 3 months. πŸ™

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Take care Captain injuries not fun at all
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    No they aren’t. Finally starting to get some movement and reduction of pain.

  • BobbyLow

    I agree. I’m still watching the Banking Sector and it’s still strong, We need to see some genuine weakness there. Once we do, the tightrope might snap.

  • HD

    Ripped bicep? ouch, dang. Take care amigo

  • BobbyLow

    Dang that sounds painful.

    BTW, hope the Mrs. has recovered from her injury.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    My capitulation will surely Mark the exact top so Y all pile in and send me some of your proceeds next week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    VIX getting down to lower BB

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mail funds to:
    Federal Bank of NY. Attn:
    BKXtozero (the guy living in a box on the sidewalk outfront) 1632 Avenue of the Americas NY 67417

  • ridingwaves

    That’s what you get for lifting your wife onto the motorcycle before driving around the Great Outdoors

    Chivalry is painful

  • Darkthirty

    AH will be very interesting…….A lot going on behind the curtain

  • ridingwaves

    Ok GC did what I was hoping, going 1/2 R at end of day, add other half Monday

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    VIX: … ALMOST closed below he lower BB…very close…keep an eye on it, beginning of next week. Here’s more VIX fodder:

    https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/analysis/2019/02/27/rare-vix-signal-points-to-spring-volatility-spike

  • ridingwaves

    I’m now not liking the trade, GC volatility is lowest in couple years…monday will tell

  • Jason13

    You short? If so I think you’re good for another 3-4 weeks…maybe down to 1250 area?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Futes up approx 11 pts. Let’s see how it opens Monday morning
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s Game Over sweetie.
    Captain boom is familiar with this phase of the Market.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b1b130bea69c06e1d15476f15ea55351972a98f6cdcd3150520024cac075ee0.png

  • ElToroLoco

    I think ES is in prime area to short… shorting 2817.75 …lottery ticket πŸ˜‰
    I am aiming for 100 points down… I know I know…lottery ticket πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO

    I expect that as well, but I am always game for trying here and there intraday

  • evilasevildoes

    watching RTY versus ES