Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
What Goes Straight Up
257

What Goes Straight Up

by The MoleFebruary 12, 2016

What goes [straight] up must eventually go down. However when exactly a symbol which has turned exponential runs out of fuel is the more important question. Once emotions reign high all bets are off – or in this case all bids are on. You may recall that I was pointing at gold the other day and suggesting that we may see another wild push to the upside.

2016-02-12_GC_LT

Which is exactly what we got and I’m pretty glad I got out of my short position at break/even. We are now seeing an obligatory pullback but medium term this thing may have legs.

2016-02-12_gold_PNF

Just FYI – the P&F claims that we met the bullish price objective. However I wouldn’t really think bearish here until we pull back below 1160 and trigger a long pole reversal warning.

2016-02-12_EUR_LT

The Euro jumped from 0 to 60 in one session and it’s been one nasty short squeeze ever since. I told you guys this one was coiling up but catching this entry was almost impossible unless you managed to grab it near the lower diagonal at 1.08. Show of hands – who nailed that entry? Exactly 😉

2016-02-12_USDJPY_LT

USD/JPY traders on the other hand should be turning on their sonar – we sliced through that 100-week SMA like butter and that 1.15 mark I pointed out a week ago is now history. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s decision to adopt negative interest rates clearly has failed to rein in the Yen’s advance. This could get ugly in a heartbeat folks – that chart shows nothing but air below.

2016-02-12_ZB_LT

Bonds of course have continued their rampage higher and now seem to be taking a little breather after the trajectory looked like it may flip backward (just kidding). Scalpers may have some fun here today and early next week but I would be cautious about betting against this advance.

2016-02-12_SPX_PNF

Equal caution I would recommend on the equities side despite signs of a short term bounce. The P&F continues to point toward 1730 and that won’t change unless we pop above the 1800 mark.

ES

I managed to nail an almost perfect long entry yesterday which was followed by an even more perfect stop out at break/even at 2005.

storm-damaged-tree

This is a tree nearby my house after I was done kicking it this morning – emergency crews are currently working to clear the road and to free trapped vehicles. Now seriously I would lie if I said I wasn’t a bit miffed about this but apparently I need to kick my campaign management up a notch into extra conservative mode. What I’m currently running (as a simulation) is a 15R handle stop with trailing suspended until an MFE of 2R. Let’s see how far that one will last. By the way the hourly ATR(14) was 12! So ATR plus seems to be the proper formula here.

Empty Hands

I still see no setups I like right now – most charts are either completing large moves or are stuck in limbo mode. Best to keep our powder dry for when the tape is offering better entry opportunities. Don’t get sucked into chasing big candles or worse – revenge trades in order to compensate for surprise losses. Just because you lost your ass on gold or in the spoos doesn’t mean you need to make it back in exactly those symbols. This is actually a cognitive bias I haven’t seen covered out there so perhaps that should be my next topic in that category.

Tegernseer-Spezial-Bier-inkl-8-Cent-Pfand+Herzoglich-Bayerisches-Brauhaus-Tegernsee

By the way I’ve decided to stock up on my stash of teutonic wheat beers as I expect Germany to officially convert into a caliphate by the end of this year. Which would mean all beer production will have to be halal and non-alcoholic. Alright that’s it – I’m heading back to the tree…


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for the grrat post. Happy Friday. Shorted nq 3977 here

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Maybe I can develop a taste for goat urine. Or worse… british beer… yikes… (j/k)

  • BKXtoZERO

    funny I was just looking at bonds with an eye to short using my typical Piker’s tool box of TBT/TMV etc… and decided it is all correlated and there is no difference between trading that or short long stocks, or back to my other Piker favorite VIX. Everything is either going up or going down the same way at the same time. Anyone have any non correlated plays they can suggest that a Piker would have access too?

  • mugabe

    re the yen, I’ve said this before, but it looks like a superb long term trade

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Keep in mind that fear is spreading and we may see huge outliers. These are not the times to fuck around mate. Better to be safe than sorry. Never try to bet against the trend unless you have a good reason. A lottery ticket is fine (see my long campaign yesterday) but once things are pushing outside the 3rd standard deviation you simply cannot know when it’s done.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Just stay away from Goat’s ASSES.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – The grain markets is one ‘obvious’ choice to cast a wider net.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Muéstrame un mapa que le puedo hincar el diente.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I need a 3X Quinoa ETF, probably doesn’t exist. Remember, no futures access for me. Thanks.

  • mugabe

    allí lo tienes

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    There is always access … even tho the terms may not be ideal.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Grains and softs in general are beautiful charts but are TOUGH to trade – spreads can be nasty and getting filled it hard. I had to drop wheat from Scalpius due to those reasons.

  • mugabe

    current ETFs, foreign market ETFs – no problem if not 3X – you just up your position size .. with due caution:)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Translation – The DNA of your chosen RBT did not match the DNA of the market and timeframe … not unusual.

  • Yoda

    FWIW, Gold touched its monthly 100 sma yesterday.

  • BKXtoZERO

    not that you guys read zeroedge, but interesting chart of Gold/Oil yesterday. The ratio is highest since 1880’s ! I still scan through there but I only look at fact based recent events or studies. I stopped reading the why we R so screwed articles years ago.

  • mugabe

    that says more about oil than gold, me thinks

  • OzarkHillBilly

    No shame in stopping by there. The factual stuff is ok outside of the obvious bias there. When I was bored during the trading day (hasn’t happened lately) I used to skim the comments for laughs …….. but it just got too depressing after awhile.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – Neither denial … nor creating a delusional reality … have any impact on events as they unfold.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have to control my exposure as it’s easy to subconsciously adopt a biased POV which spills into trading.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Can you translate that to English?

  • Yoda

    By being long USO (entered trade today) and short GLD (entered trade yesterday) profit from it I intend… at least for the S-T.

  • tradingmom

    spx 15 min — watching the 1947-1950 gap, the moving averages, and the channel

  • Billabong

    Anyone trading UCO/SCO against CL? Why the big gap on UCO? UCO up 5% and CL up 9%

  • ridingwaves

    what lies before us and what lies behind us are only tiny matters to what lies within us…Emerson

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – a derivative of a derivative ?

  • BKXtoZERO

    That’s why they are for Pikers!

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – or for those who are ‘tuned in’.

  • Billabong

    A back tested derivative of a derivative. Time Bandit and I ran UCO/SCO for the last few years and it works. This is the second time I’ve seen a significant gap, SCO in the fall during the drop in CL and now UCO with a smaller gap in SCO. To answer my own question, it has to do with the buying / selling pressure and the mathematics of the product.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    B’bong – spot on !

  • Billabong

    It depends on what you use and how/what you’ve back tested it against … On the other hand, those 3Xs are wicked and don’t back test very well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    The market has actually been VERY kind, to have solved so many set ups intraday rather than via big gaps. Of course there have been gaps but also many “roll over days” with a clearly defined set up with minimal intra-day risk that gets resolved one way or the other. I love days where I am close to inflection on my set up and can limit loss quite easily.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Watching the financials as well here, as I would even if I wasn’t holding FAS and FAS calls. Nice % move up, but they might have the toughest gap to close today and are hitting resistance from early in the week. If we get a bigger bounce it will have to include the banks. Not waiting longer to find out, as this was all I was really hoping for. I’ll keep some of the calls in case we get going again after a pullback; might even hold over the weekend if it firms up over the course of the day.

  • saltwaterdog

    The difference is due to when CL settles (just after pit close) vs UCO trading until equities close about 2.5hrs later. CL put in a large rally after settlement yesterday, which was reflected in UCO’s change yesterday, and today’s change in CL. Works out over time.

  • Billabong

    You’re right because I just switched my platform over to settlement from last trade a couple of days ago … thanks.

  • Yoda

    I’d rather read Le Fly for entertainment purposes.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    S’dog – right in line with my comment regarding data in the previous post … totally on the same page.

  • Time Bandit

    One thing is that yesterday’s close on /CL was $27.30 so if /CL was truly up $2.56 then it would be trading at $29.86 instead of $28.73 as of last print. UCO would have had the $27.30 in it’s price at 4PM yesterday.

    There’s always a bit of difference but today’s is bigger than normal.

  • Yoda

    The divergence between GBPJPY and the spoos on the 5 min chart I do not like

  • Time Bandit

    I agree and when I’ve used the 3X, I usually have a difficult time figuring out the Delta between it and the underlying vehicle for R purposes.

  • Time Bandit

    I’m seeing the same thing.

  • mugabe

    that’s the lie of it

  • OzarkHillBilly

    They are ok to catch a quick ride on, as I’m attempting to do right now, but I have an equally difficult time when I’m trying to “interpret” the greeks when working with their options.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX, tiny Piker loss on small Piker position. May finally get a rally with a second gear to it.

  • Yoda

    Market breadth is not very strong, and ZL is yet to show activity. Cautious I remain for now. Still long risk tough.

  • Yoda

    Dude, it looks like you are placing trades without a plan. What is your rationale for playing TVIX today?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I stated it, long while SP was below 1850. Clear as crystal.

  • Yoda

    Does this mean you are now reversing your trade to XIV?

  • Time Bandit

    Yep. And the wide gaps between Bid and Ask mess things up too because it’s usually difficult to get out at an anticipated price.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am long UWTI, up and happy with that. Using my limited buying power to scalp long is 1) against trend, 2) doesn’t seem to pay off as well, 3) will allow me room for a possible short higher up depending on how things look.

  • Time Bandit

    One suggestion is that you try to decide whether you want to be a trend trader or a support/resistance guy which can involve going against the trend.

    I have great difficulty trying to be both so I’m always a little late to get into a run and a little late getting out of a run. But when you get into a massive run as the man says “One Good Run Pays For Them All”.

    There is no really “better” way. It’s just up to what is a good fit for you.

  • Yoda

    It looks to me that you are going to end up with even less buying power very soon. You are trying to give advice to Kudra but you act to me the same. Stop trading man and try to find a good justification for entering a trade. Going against a trend with 3X ETF/ETN whether is it intraday or over several days will kill your account. Learn to read the tape, and subscribe to the Zero before considering playing with live hand grenades

  • Yoda

    It is improving now. 🙂

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Exactly. The only times it really works out, at least for me, is when I can reasonably expect an outsized move that really shifts volatility in my favor, thus allowing me to use that spread to my advantage. Luckily we’ve been having these moves quite a bit. Timing is key, as I really have to watch the MM’s interest ebb and flow.

    The biggest downside to the spreads is that I can’t just set a stop and look away …. but this has turned into a good exercise in maintaining mental discipline.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I don’t trade huge positions like he does, I use stops, he doesn’t, I have a plan, he doesn’t…. do you read any of my posts? have you seen my trading records posted? apparently not.

  • Darkthirty

    Gap fill, short…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I try to do both. I’ll take whatever I view as a set up that looks like a good risk reward, short term or long term. I didn’t realize I had to fit a category. Some are swings with 10 day to 1 month outlook and some are intraday, higher risk, higher reward tight stop plays. It has been working for me so I will stick to this while the plan is working.

  • Yoda

    Yes I have read your posts and it appears to me that you are gambling instead of trading. If you do not use tools like Zero or anything similar (I am yet to find another one as good as the zero), you are trading blind if you trade intraday and consider yourself a scalper.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I would love to subscribe and may yet.

  • BKXtoZERO

    anyway, how are your records? have you posted your results lately?

  • Mark Shinnick

    You’ve posted some kick-ass 3x range trades, I guess using your BB’s.

  • Time Bandit

    You don’t have to fit into a category and just because I have to stick with one style doesn’t mean that someone else has to do the same. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There she goes…

  • ridingwaves

    the vix is respecting the 50sma on 60 minutes, I would try a L Vix at purple line if it gets there….daily matches up also at same spot…being Friday and long holiday weekend, next week the bulls could push it there….but it’s a coin toss
    http://s11.postimg.org/u9a24ewkj/vix_respect_50sma.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I actually like the balance of forcing some long term commitment and trying to capitalize on short term stuff. Why box with one hand? trying to develop both hands sir. Thanks.

  • Yoda

    As I say yesterday, I would not dare to touch this tape without it, even more so for intraday trading.

  • BKXtoZERO

    standard BBs, RSI, horizontal supports, volume with a mix of hunch regarding game theory such as month end, quarter end, op ex, and even a slight hint of EW every now and then

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Let’s all just chill out and watch the tape before our emotions get the better of us.

  • Yoda

    I am new to blogging but I have been reading Sir Mole for quite a while. I am also a sub to Zero. I have been trading since 2007 and had my ass handed to me on a number of trades. However, I learned from my mistakes and have been trading rather successfully for now over 2 years. Recently, I have managed to catch the bottom and top of each “wave” since December, resulting in roughly doubling my trading account. Whether you take my word for it or not, it does not matter much to me. What I wanted to say to you is that I used to trade like you seem to do, and it did cost me dearly in the past. If you actually want to make coins, you need to step up your skills and also use the right tools for the type of trading you want to be doing.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? I’m seeing high quality discourse here which is very satisfying 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think I just saw a chart! Let me mark my calendar.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Check’s in the mail.

  • Yoda

    LOL

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Just stating the obvious, but it would be nice to see the recent resistance quickly become support.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    *groan*

  • BKXtoZERO

    If you’ve been reading since 2007 then you know what Scott would say. When he doesn’t see records, his bullshit antenna goes up.

  • Kato33

    Hanging in there. My long ZB was tested with that spike below the 100h and the lower 25h BB. Still long GC and SI. The retrace from yesterday’s high has been orderly so far. Also took a small speculative short on NQ after the touch of the upper 100h BB and the 25h BB. ISL just above the BBs. BBs are tightening so a good move may be imminent

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    That doesnt sound like Yoda sentence structure 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    ..watching TLT cool off. {yawn}

    EDIT: BAC weekly.
    respect at the band line. for now.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46280755391

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    *PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT*

    The New York Stock Exchange will be closed on Monday, February 15, due to the Presidents’ Day holiday

  • BKXtoZERO

    3 day weekend for me. No rest though….. my house owns me

  • ridingwaves

    here’s a pic for chillin, Sedona hike with the crazy blue eyed aussie, ice field kept everyone else away, very mystic spot….good trading to all, next leg of trip begins…
    http://s11.postimg.org/6rfly7s6b/Kona_hike_sedona.png

  • Time Bandit

    Getting a whacked a little today boss. But this is one of the perils with trying to stick with a longer term trend until it has run it’s course. Needless to say trends do not go in a continuous straight line. 🙂

  • Yoda

    Check out US Steel. We have a failed retest of a low so far, positive divergence on RSI, narrow BB and quite a push higher above the daily 25 sma. This one could be a nice runner next week.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=X&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p99428813571

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I am out of longs. On the good side, Treasury yields bounced hard today, junk bonds bounced too. Bad side, volume isn’t where it should be and not convinced by price action. If I am wrong, I can always hop on the long bus later.

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I forget the snow! hasn’t melted yet.
    going to be 87F (record breaker) in Phoenix today.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Great pic. I love that area, especially the drive down the canyon from the north; it’s as if you can feel the vibe change.

  • Time Bandit

    Probably doesn’t mean anything but seeing a mild divergence between /CL and OIH as /CL was making new highs on the day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    overthinking, dam it!
    stop thinking!!!

  • tradingmom

    And china, which has been closed all week, will reopen Sunday night.

  • tradingmom

    backtest of the filled gap at 1850ish going on

  • Time Bandit
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I sense an underlying fear of holding long over the weekend, as most see an eventual drop to 1750 SPX in the charts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • OzarkHillBilly

    Can’t complain. Got a lesson to be thankful for earlier this week, but it looks like I’ll end the day with more moola than I had a week ago, with the promise of more ahead. Concentrating on short term set ups that could develop into more, without getting too concerned about picking the absolute tops and bottoms.

  • Yoda

    I would be worry holding long if there were no fear. GBPJPY still pushing higher though.

  • tradingmom

    Except that those are exactly the conditions that they use to create a squeeze.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    sense? what is this? The Force?

    I SEE, a price ceiling. EDIT: even if it’s vaulted.

  • Time Bandit

    We need this Mr. Rogers to come to the ES “Hood”. 🙂

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Still in, but raised my stop along the way.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, we’ve been seeing quite a lot of overnight movement in the past few weeks. The down moves repeatedly started overnight and the counter moves mostly occurred during the NYSE session. However right now I would not want to take a contrarian position – or any position at all and hold it through a weekend. Just too much volatility – especially during a LONG weekend. Sheeesh!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Chart!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m not complaining. But I have a ton of work on the roster so no rest for the wicked.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love the desert – and I have some very good memories of Sedona and a young colaborrative blonde – heheheee

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Sentence structure of Yoda that is not

  • BKXtoZERO

    My hat goes off to you for being a great scalper. Scalping is certainly not my strength. Yoda is right that one needs the zero for that. Also my charting and indicators must be dial up speed compared to what you do every day. For me they are largely managing possible swings that I refuse to get down on. If they turn for me I either take them or if things really turn I hold. I have gone off script a few times recently but for me scalping has been the result of historic danger and I refuse to be spanked.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh my checklist probably wasn’t going to be met today so gonna wait it out. I wanted to see buying volume to hit at least 75% of the max selling volume. Plus the price action isn’t in the bat out of hell mode which I would like to see off of a bottom. It isn’t all bad but it isn’t all good either so I’m probably staying out of both longs and shorts.

  • BKXtoZERO

    CL bumping up against horz resistance at moment. I am up and holding.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    anybody notice that big multi-day moves, like to have a 50% retrace on the daily?

    EDIT: we’re due for another one.

  • almez

    Looking at zero, I don’t think this is a squeeze. I recall a Mole post that showed squeezes generally have very spikey zeros (>2) on the daily

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Scalping is the same as medium or long term trading, except in 5 and 15 min charts. You have to know when to take profits and losses on a faster scale, just like you would on medium/long term trades. I see the same patterns develop on short term charts that lead to trade initiation and exit, the same way as someone looking at a year long chart. Double tops, hangmen, dojis, all happen the same way. Just depends on your style and how much you want to look at charts all day, every minute of the day.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I hear ya. I’ll definitely lighten up before the close today; how much so depends upon the next two hours. I currently envision holding a handful of calls over the weekend, but that could change as quick as I can type.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Gold up while Chinese out?
    those B@stards!!! it’s them! {/sarc}

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Volume really sucks today. I know a lot of ppl say it is overrated as an indicator and I agree. That said it is pretty anemic. But the intraday price action is what concerns me most. Isn’t putting the fear of God into the shorts like I would like to see. Techs look weak too. But who knows maybe I am being paranoid.

  • Time Bandit

    IMO, you are exactly right.

    I’ve done a lot of day trade scalping but eventually it became too stressful for me. I would become mentally exhausted by the end of the trading day so I changed my modus operandi.

  • Edd

    Agree totally. Flip trade here on 10min chart everyday, all day. Charts and ruleset exactly the same as if I was on daily. The only issue I have on smaller time frames is the quality of execution, and position size in reference to volume. I trade 3x RUT and my backtests will rarely be achieved in real time trading due to often poor fills. I often optimize my exits in variance to my rule set. I average approx a better result on exit 65% of my trades exercizing this discretion. This helps keep me in line with expected results from system backtests

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Focusing on the short term helped me tremendously in developing better trading habits, and made me much more consistent in my longer term plays.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    It pays to be paranoid. If I had been a little more paranoid this week, I might have done better (no regrets though). In the market, everyone really is out to get you.

    The most bullish thing I can point to at this point in the day is that short term resistance appears to be turning into at least brief support, and some technical indicators are resetting without much downside action. On the way down, it’s been the opposite. Having said that, as soon as I zoom out, I see more and more resistance to push through, and I also don’t see the volume to do it yet. But there wasn’t always a lot on the way down either. And …… this, that, if, and, but … you know the drill.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Looking better on equities now. Who knows maybe we close strong

  • saltwaterdog

    Update on the “beers on me” RBT…. 24 trades this week, 8W, 16L, 33%, net +3R. 8R max draw during the week.

  • BKXtoZERO

    thanks for sharing exact items to lens.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Closing S&P at 1860 or above would give me a lot more confidence about holding long over the weekend.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Me too. Free trial for their new toy, Exodus right now. Thought about checking it out, but the last thing I want right now is info overload.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    that’s (24trades/3R) or 0.125 R per trade average.
    sounds exhausting.
    😉

  • saltwaterdog

    It’s not bragging Gerb. Simple sharing of results. Your math is actually included in the table of stats. I’m rather pleased with the overall return of the system in under 3mo. And as I’ve said before, I’m bored to tears.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Boring is good. Exciting is bad, think Casinos and Wild Women.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have yet to even start my “stats”. I’ve just been going by % all these years. Max draw down this week was 2%. Ending near all time highs. I finally started putzing around with a sheet. I am trying to figure out if I want separate tabs for each vehicle. Things just start looking messy. If you want feel free to share your layout, column names etc. I see Ivan’s guy doing days of the week. I want to try to keep it simple and clear when I do.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not necessarily – IMO consistent/steady advances should be more worrisome to the bears. Fast spikes often are reversed quickly, at least that’s what I saw especially during the 2008 crisis.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    HAVE A GREAT PRESIDENT’S DAY WEEKEND EVERYONE!

  • BKXtoZERO

    you said be on the look out for slow consistent accumulation was the exact quote. Not that I spend too much time on here…………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Keep one spreadsheet in Excel – easy to sort for symbols when you need it.

  • Ronebadger

    Past President’s Day…(not Current President’s Day)
    Right back at ya!

  • Time Bandit

    I simply write my trades down in a college ruled booklet. When each trade is closed I enter it onto a spreadsheet with some remarks. My spredheet automatically calculates my APE and SQN. Here is a picture. My last 6 trades are cut off and have been lousy however they are included in my totals up top. My average net bookings have dropped down to 1.08 R per week and are currently below my goal of 1.35 R per week.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saved your screenshot a long time ago. Thanks.

  • saltwaterdog

    What works for each individual will be different, but for the approach shared here, I have one master sheet that has all campaigns taken. I include the following fields: Date (and time, if you are trading less than daily timeframe), Ticker/Market, Side, Size, Entry Setup (some text of the why), Entry Price, ISL, Exit, Return in R, Return in $.

    Some of these columns can be functions of the others, limiting the need to manually fill it out. For some, the process of manual entry assists with the discipline.

    Finally you need a total equity column. I also have a 2nd equity column that allows me to track mistakes… ie a running total of perfect execution, and I just modify the results for the entries where I goofed and then keep a 2nd curve so I can see my drift vs the ideal.

    All very easy but also very essential… Just start by entering the trades you did today on individual rows. Then you can compile history from your statements. There is no reason to keep pushing it out like it is something you are not ready for. As Ivan says, “Nike”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I have to agree w/Mole.
    PivotTables, sounds scary at first, don’t let it intimidate.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peNTp5fuKFg

  • BKXtoZERO

    thanks. one of these weekend nights I will start in again

  • saltwaterdog

    The nature of the deal is a series of very small steps, just put today’s trades into a sheet and then put it away, add to it later

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually prefer Washington’s Birthday.

  • Kishore Kumar

    “…. playing with live hand grenades”

    With huge amount of money! One posted trade showed depoyement of $150K to brag about a 10K in gain on TVIX. Bad example for others on the forum!

    If a trader is so sure of his trading and timing skills, why not just quit playing inverse ETFs and instead play Futures with 5K borrrowed from the 401K plan and leave bulk of the 401K alone. Better to lose slowly rather than in huge chunks like Kudra. Scott had called on him right numerous times!

  • phylum

    Goose:)

  • phylum

    If you were running a business …..

  • phylum

    Why exhausting? The market does the work ….. there’s “R’s” out there.

  • phylum

    Which one?

  • phylum

    … and

  • BKXtoZERO

    working it right now. Currently no heat. Removing/Installing new furnace is kind of priority this week. Nice to have heat in the winter.

  • Kishore Kumar

    You are the biggest BSter on this forum, hogging immense bandwidth, with nothing to offer, other than your BS trades and braggadocio about your returns, misleading and doing great disservice to anyone who may want to learn good trading habits. You should be banned.

  • Grant

    Are successful traders frugal by nature? I am not asking about net worth but about mental makeup… Many successful business owners I know do not “spend” unless it is justified by their own mental process of accessing value. Can this be applied to trading on a per trade basis? I have worked through this personally but want to get your opinions.

  • newbfxtrader

    Time Bandit Mod • a month ago

    Hey Newbie,

    About 400 or 500 Pips ago you said that the GBP/JPY might be on its way to a 168 Handle and I thought that might be a stretch. It has that handle at this very moment and I’m glad you were right. 🙂

    • Reply•Share ›

    Avatar

    newbfxtrader Time Bandit • a month ago

    Sure thing. Its just getting started. After a bounce for example usd/jpy will get to 106. Take a look at my charts.

    1 • Edit• Reply•Share ›

    Avatar

    newbfxtrader Time Bandit • a month ago

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/

    even if you get a really to 176 the whole setup is a complex head and shoulders.

    • Edit• Reply•Share ›

    Avatar

    Time Bandit Mod newbfxtrader • a month ago

    I have a wide stop on my Short but not that wide. I’m up 1,500 Pips at this moment and when I get stopped out, I’ll gladly take a ride back up on the Long Side to 176 and then take another ride back down. 🙂

    • Reply•Share ›

    Avatar

    newbfxtrader Time Bandit • a month ago

    Yes of course. Nice work!

  • newbfxtrader

    didnt make quite upto 176. Reached 175 and cratered. Setting up for another failing rally but the whole structure is breaking down.

  • Kishore Kumar

    They watch their pennies, for example the commission rates or the bid ask spreads, for sure but I am not so sure if they watch their Pounds (or Dollars) with as much diligence. Penny wise, Pound foolish! It applies to traders a lot because most of them are driven by the lure of “easy money”. Many of them, successful or unsuccessful, were or still are good at winning or losing a lot in the big casinos of the stock markets because they take big risks to try to hit the jackpot, developing bad habits as they go along, throwing away all caution to the winds, if they do achieve some temporary success. “Success” corrupts many and turns them into incorrigible gamblers. Some even go long on inverse ETFs and start thinking of themselves as geniuses.

    What value can one find in the stocks today? It is all herd mentality, the blind Central Banks leading the blind, and mutual masturbation by the participants, all driven by an insatiable desire for more and more!

  • Grant

    Exactly, this process will glean multiple R’s from week to week. No guessing only boring work… some weeks may look better than others but it’s finding the value in making each trade.

  • Grant

    Hmm… producing widgets happens one at a time. Is it better to own the factory or “mass produce” with large multiples of leverage? I guess ideally one could mass produce and own the factory but how does one get there?

  • Time Bandit

    That was amazing. This was my best Forex trade ever and I wound up with 1750 Pips. Since that trade, I got stopped on a Long on this pair for a loss (The Kuroda Fail) which was a correct trade. I also took a loss on a counter trend trade on this pair which was a mistake. (No more of those) 🙂

    I think it was a couple of years ago when I was scalping Forex that you said you were going for 1,000 Pip runs or more. I kind of just glossed over what you said then but not anymore. I’ve also done a 15 Year Backtest on this thing and my approach has come around to your way of thinking.

  • newbfxtrader

    Look at monthly weekly then daily charts and more often than not you can get on the right side given patience small positions and a wider stop. This move is not over. You can see a huge head and shoulders starting to break down here.

  • mugabe

    If you mean, are they choosy about their trades, I think the answer is probably yes … unless they’re using a non-discretionary RBT, in which case every trsde is the same.

  • newbfxtrader

    Also you can tell the equities are already in a bear market and rallies will be sold.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/4jJxnXgm/

    see any reason this cant get to 106? After a failing rally? Thats could be a thousand pips.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/gPIBXKrz/

    another one posted months ago. I dont think anyone took these 🙂

  • mugabe

    I’d agree with that. In trading based on daily candles or longer, I find it a huge help to start with a very big picture view to get a feel of where we are.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I use the bigger pictures for ‘wake up’ calls.
    *Hey idiot, the monthly just went bear/bull, *

    getting lost in the daily and weekly action, the wake up call is an alert to summarize what has been happening for some time, and I’ve been too busy (in the short term) to keep it ‘front and center’ as to what the season is.

  • mugabe

    absolutely. unless you’re trading intraday, I always think it’s worth zooming out before zomming in

  • mugabe

    Purely for the sake disclosure, longer term trades posted:
    CI – stopped out for -1R
    Long VZ and T – about breakeven at the moment
    Short SYK – about breakeven at the moment.
    On Friday initiated short CMCSA

  • BKXtoZERO

    got your message (which appears to have been deleted). I will finish my records this weekend for sure.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    intraday guys have it good, if you’re wrong, you’ll know soon enough.
    Monthly traders? if you’re wrong, you are screwed for a very, very long time.
    😉

  • mugabe

    I do use monthly momentum which only adjusts at end of month – can get hairy but a lot depends on portfolio construction. I think the worst month I’ve had in the last 2 years in 3 different accounts (from memory) is about -6.5% down for one of the accounts.

  • mugabe

    you could call this a major low …

    http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_49694385.?1455371173

  • Grant

    Neg, what’s the cost of trading. Why do 90%+ of businesses fail in the first year?

  • mugabe

    is this a quiz?

  • Time Bandit

    Working with the Daily is slow enough for me. But whatever works . . .

  • Time Bandit

    I agree and I’m a little concerned about correlation. Kuroda announced negative interest rates and it backfired (at least initialy) This is going to be interesting to say the least.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    low cost of entry?

    under-capitalization?

    low return of repeat customers?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • BKXtoZERO

    you could try 😉

  • Kishore Kumar

    Long and hard!

    Nevertheless, I would not trade intraday without first looking at the daily. At least, that imposes some bounds on the intraday yo-yo moves.

  • mugabe

    I didn’t say ‘the’ low 🙂

  • Billabong

    Monthly charts are good for confirming a trend. -6.5% is good considering the sideways chop we went through last year.

  • Billabong

    It may offer on opportunity to keep core trend positions and ST trade reversals.

  • mugabe

    it’s based on rate of change (momentum) rather than monthly candles, but portfolio is adjusted monthly

  • mugabe

    that would be an interesting approach

  • Billabong

    I’m currently short NQ / YM using QID / DXD and long from Thursday, DDM and QLD … which will be sold into any continuing strength early next week

  • mugabe
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    /GC
    ..places where I will be watching for support.
    otherwise, it’s a long pole reversal like Mole stated last week.

    -GG

  • phylum

    There’s a “lot” of data on the chart GG … and a really big box … and a “” …. is this (post) about trying to pick a direction or setting up a trade (on a particular timeframe?) … not being rude, just asking.

  • Billabong

    It’s a vicious reversal. ES 1900 is a key resistance point.

  • Billabong

    GC support on my lens starts at 1200 but really goes down to 1148. I hate to say this, GC looks like it could be developing a classic cup and handle shape…

  • Billabong

    No moat for competition … e.g. restaurants.

  • Billabong

    By starting young and stretching the product and production process over years. Old nail makers make a fortune because the cost of the assembly line was expensed decades ago and the product doesn’t change.

  • Billabong

    There are always opportunities to find value but it takes a lot of work searching through the daily noise and looking for the best opportunities. For example, miners were a great value buy back in Sep/Oct but nobody wanted them. I suspect oil producers / pipelines / oil services will yield great value opportunities in the coming months between a declining market, dividend cuts and bad earnings reports.

  • mugabe

    it went pretty vertical – most oversold on the dailies in years. current snap back not surprising, really.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Futures market is open, is the Zero taking a day off for Presidents Day? Its not updating.

  • Grant

    Ahh, how do I incorporate this to trading?

  • Grant

    Phylum, it’s TA or technical analysis… it’s a great way to get blown up, imo. No rules, lots of conjecture and lots of pretty pictures after the fact but it does not translate over time to a larger balance in one’s trading acct.. TA is used to run stops primarily.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Perhaps the use of the word ‘technical’ in TA is more to differentiate the approach from ‘fundamental’ analysis.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Wow. I bet you’re a lot of fun at parties Grant.
    =P

  • Grant

    Actually, I used to be the one doing keg stands back in tha day… I don’t recall discussing inverse head and shoulders patterns with my buddies unless they came with real T&A if ya know what I mean.

  • mugabe

    1 So, accordingly to your own analysis, technical analysis is used by some successful traders/algos (the ones running stops).
    2 There are examples of successful TA traders with very long track records. Peter Brandt is one.
    There are many ways to be successful in the markets, and many ways to blow up.
    Btw, I thought this was interesting:
    The best trading ideas are distinguished by their breadth (combining information across time frames and/or markets); depth (level of detail and understanding); and originality (looking at new things or viewing old things in new ways). Successful generation of ideas goes beyond consensus thinking.
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.es/2016/02/three-essential-ingredients-of.html
    That’s a very tall order. The whole article is excellent – if sobering.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wild guy eh?
    Like I said a few weeks ago.
    Don’t marry your trades.

    http://www.photogrefers.com/gallery/b4419a17423c2cb7227e73c943835313.jpg

  • Kishore Kumar

    Yes, it may be valid concept, if the cost of the “assembly line” is an account blow out, painful memories, recovery and rehabilitation.

    Productivity is based entirely on the production worker and that correlation is as old as dirt.

  • newbfxtrader

    JBTFD!

  • ridingwaves

    the handle would be sweet if it hit 1170 area..the last cup and handle for gold back in 09-10 took it to 1800…
    1450 pnf target

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Futures up big and overseas up even bigger. As of now, going to open well north of the upper BB on the hourly for SPY.

  • mugabe

    yeah- and euro, yen and gold getting slammed … there seems to be a pattern here:)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yup. I closed out longs on Fri thinking there would be ample time to reboard the train lol.

  • Grant

    I have yet to see a successful EqC of a TA trader here…

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    G’lander – You asked a while ago about my thoughts on using multiple timeframes …

    From the perspective of my setups and approach … and more specifically the RBTs that I have used and my students create … multiple timeframes can greatly assist in two areas.

    Firstly, the correct application (again from my side) of more than one timeframe can smooth out the EqC … as they act as a natural, market-derived filter for the setups. As I have written here before, my 12 + setups do an excellent job at being present at significant junctures in a market’s journey … alas they occur too often.

    Secondly, the use of multiple timeframes can also improve the end R result … in terms of internal stats … such as R per campaign, strike rate and clustering of losses.

    The many CyberTutorials on my site provide an insight into how I apply the multiple timeframe approach.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Blistering One Cent rally in Crude! Glad I am not short stocks anyway. Finally a decent bounce for everyone wishing for another chance to short.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Says it right there that it’s not on today.

  • Yoda

    Now that Goldman is publicly saying to short gold, overstaying my welcome on the short side I would not. My profit target is a retest of the former weekly resistance. Moreover the situation in the Middle East really starts to be worrying and if it gets out of control with the Turks and Saudi joining the clusterfuck in Syria, gold and oil may take off at a clownish pace, not looking back down for quite a while. If it were to happen on the wrong side of the trade I would hate to be. FYI I follow the site moon of alabama dot org to get news out of the MSM propaganda conduits.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Thanks Ivan. I will take a look at the tutorials. I have found when I wait for a setup that triggers and hourly + daily buy my win rate is much higher. Only issue is that these setups on my system don’t happen often. Last Thurs was only the second time this year. I plan on going back through recent trades to see what change it would make on my profitability if I were to only trade or perhaps only primarily trade these infrequent setups.

  • BKXtoZERO

    conjecture takes back seat to price. My answers are found at CL 35,37 and recent low. All else matters not to my lens.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Prob means they are long

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The only good thing from Goldman is the elevator gossip.

  • Darkthirty

    Figure about 1K gap by open on DJI at this rate!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    How in the hell is Mole going to have a good time any more?

    €500 Bill shuttered?

    Can’t have depositors walking out so easily.

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/15/news/500-euro-bill-banknote/index.html

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    NINE AND TEN.

    ..can I get a fist bump!?

  • BKXtoZERO

    My initial target for CL is 1 year chart 50dma and 20-2 bollinger overlap point around 34-34.82. More would be great.

  • phylum

    At the end of the day it’s not what’s right or wrong, good or bad, it’s how one get’s there. If one has a plan (rules) and it works, over time, then good for you. If it doesn’t, then maybe back to the proverbial “drawing board” .. (this could be a long n drawn out convo) … “the” point being, if you don’t have a defined set of rules and a defined yardstick, how would you know?

  • phylum

    ISL at?

  • BKXtoZERO

    CL short term, 50dma curling up, overbought right now but holding. I have been trying for an intermediate term move. I will try to give this a chance if things look likely this time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    TVIX hit 13?
    dam, i’m gettin rusty. probably just a fluke.
    😉

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p20588497271

  • BKXtoZERO

    OK. Here are my records. I pulled myself away from my house and went through my transactions. Thanks to those who have encouraged me to do this and helped. I correctly paired my trades and figured out a way to reflect multiple entries and exits. The executive summary is that the last few years have been good to me since landing here at Evil Speculator. I had some lessons pounded into me by those who cared. I have made a lot of progress from years back. My position sizing has continued to come down as my account has gone up. I have kept a form factor of trying to risk a stop in the hundreds and shoot for gains in the thousands. I don’t have futures access and use all 2-3X vehicles for leverage. I have been working on my rule set for months now and am getting closer to a code of conduct for myself that I am happy with. When I choose to expose myself to overnight campaigns my intra-day ideal stops do get blown up at times. On average, I have more winners that ran than losers that I had to cut. Having a clue about campaign management has helped and I have slept a lot better these last few years. I am NOT perfect, nor have I ever claimed to be but am much better than I used to be. On the plus side, this year I have indeed been the “Ayatollah of TVIX” and the 15,867 is certainly a highlight! but my longer term Crude plan got off to a tough start in January. I sidestepped a big drop and took it all off then got back in right at the lows last week. Last year I was the King of Crude, this year I am down so far but that looks to be largely revered come Tuesday morning. I also had a mistaken read on Gold and Dust that ripped past my stop. I was a tad stubborn in trying multiple times prior to realizing that the trend had changed. So anyway, here is the good, the bad and the ugly.

  • Darkthirty

    My question is why spend a day pumping it up. Pick the number, and BAM, hit it. Pretty silly acting like there’s actual trading going on here………

  • phylum

    Dude, your “rules” (unless changed) had you in the other day, maybe your campaign management hence exit strategy is more appropriate to post.

  • Darkthirty

    Long PB, and delivery devices. PB will get you all the AU you want!

  • BKXtoZERO

    stop lows of last week.

  • phylum

    Theraputic? Well done.

  • phylum

    You’re a rock star

  • phylum

    entry and R?

  • Darkthirty

    Opex week…ALWAYS expect a ramp. One month a year it actually goes down. DON’T hold over the weekend period! Unless lotto tickets ……

  • BKXtoZERO

    UWTI at 1.2, this is not my trading portion of account. I have a 30% chunk for longer term crude play and I was at 60% position. So, More than 2% CL only. All others 1-2%

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in….. never posted an exit. Just give me your number and I will call you personally.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Last year 2015 is just TDA screen view. I have no intention of digging through this mess.

  • newbfxtrader

    730k account? You made 20k trading 3x ETFs? Are you nuts? Take out 50k leave the rest alone. Take some of my setups and you will make the same.

  • newbfxtrader

    http://www.peterlbrandt.com/blog/

    or take his setups or one of Moles creations like Crazy Ivan and you will do just fine.

  • Billabong

    Instead of “my initial target for CL…” why not talk about resistance point? My resistance point is around 31-31.50. When you say “my” target, you’re interjecting your ego and belief system. This puts your emotions on the line because it now has to happen…

  • Billabong

    I commend you for laying it all out. You are taking on way too much risk with 3X ETF/ETNs while working a full time job. “I was the king of crude (ego)…”, what is the oil trend? Hint, it hasn’t changed. Lastly, I can’t believe the size of the positions you’re taking. Any 2X for me is a max of two hundred shares with rare exceptions. The construction and mathematics of ETFs and ETNs makes them dangerous in calm markets … some that are long in a bull market or short in bear market will actually go to zero over a few years despite what they are supposed to do because of their construct…. This isn’t a beat you up session, but it is a serious discussion about capital preservation.

  • Kishore Kumar

    Borrow some money from your 401K, open a Futures account and trade Futures, with an R value of 1% or less of your total capital, leaving bulk of your 401K intact. Regardless of your past performance, you are taking too much risk with instruments that are known to have caused many account blow outs. Whatever profit you make within 90 days, put it back into your 401K. Maybe, that will avoid some of the penalty. However, it is better to pay the penalty than to risk it in your dangerous trades.

  • saltwaterdog

    Those rows represent his activity for all of 2015, and the figure you are referring to is the total cost vs total sales proceeds of his activity for the year, not the balance of his account

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for sharing. TVIX and DUST are your favs I see

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    “It’s right there on the card” – Steve Harvey 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    My plan is to keep them tight intraday and only hold to try daily if I am up. I am 80% cash right now and am at 100% cash fairly often these days. That is a decent plan but I didn’t follow it a few times. As for oil, I also realize construct of 3X ETF is not a “hold” candidate and should be switching to 1X but not 3X. Looks llike CL didn’t hold the gains. My stop is just over break even but i’ll give it a chance. Thanks for input.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes, that is just gain loss for last year not balance. Now you know whay I say “keeping it tight” so often…………..

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been thinking about that. Thanks.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Dust was a first try ever for me and a bad idea. Not sure if you remember my post but I have started to lean more toward scalping like you to be able to control my risk. Sometimes I like what I see, other times I am super careful on holds.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    BTW, I have a chunk of the morning to pick an entry and get a stop in place. I go in late. If I don’t like an entry and can’t get it stabilized, I keep it tight and take it off. I will down size even more on positions, thanks for frank advice.

  • BKXtoZERO

    all Forex?

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    For your 401k, you need to find another vehicle other than UWTI to go long oil for longer periods. The decay is going to put a big hurt even if crude stays at the same price. I would look at very oil sensitive companies instead or look at oil futures so you don’t have to worry about decay.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    USO has this same problem too but less pronounced but for long term holds still worth avoiding

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks. I am worried about debt going w/ specific stocks and will try USO as a better alternative. I have the conflict of wanting to catch a daily rip on a 3X from a low like NUGT just did, but am aware of the decay, thus the conflict of managing entries so heavily on what should be a hold, because I know it isn’t.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “Keep in mind that I work a full time 9hr a day job at an Aerospace company and that I can’t watch charts all day. ”

    I’m unsure how you can trade 3X funds, with the current situation. It wouldn’t be too hard to imagine a situation where you are left holding the Market bag. Is it possible you are trying to get results too fast with unmeasured risk?

    +100 for ‘laying it out’ there.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I use stops. Below somewhere I said that I have a chunk of the morning to manage an entry and set a stop. Then I can change to a trailing stop later. I can look at work and change a stop but I can’t stare at charts all day. Last MKT hour is my lunch time so I can pay attention full time there too. Basically I am only missing 2 hrs of the day.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I see. Thanks.

  • Kishore Kumar

    If you could make money with reverse ETFs, deploying huge amounts of capital, I am sure you will make a lot more with Futures, deploying a fraction of the capital, and taking smaller risks. Nevertheless, thank your lucky stars for having it so far so good!

    Incidentally, humility is good for keeping one from making huge mistakes, no matter how good the past performance has been!