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What Needs To Happen Now
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What Needs To Happen Now

by The MoleOctober 30, 2009

Morning my intrepid stainless steel rats. Forgive me late appearance but I simply couldn’t roll out of bed this morning – had to catch up with some much needed sleep and my bed was way too cozy and warm. You can blame that damn heating blanket Mrs. Evil bought me a while ago 🙂


Okay, so this is what has to happen now – per the chart above we now need to see yesterday’s lows (SPX 1042.19) to be taken out with conviction. And that’s pretty much it, folks – really nothing to be said about the wave count.

Nice move also on the Dollar front – and similarly we need to take out Wednesday’s highs (78.58) and that soon. So far it’s looking pretty motive and I’m sure a whole bunch of Dollar shorts are running around with their hair on fire as I’m typing this.

May I kindly point out that 2sweeties’ DXY long RL at 75.93 held up just famously? 🙂


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://venespeculador.blogspot.com Holl
  • anotherone

    New channel has formed on the SPX

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/39788544@N03/40586

  • itsgold

    Short AAPL here.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    It's amazing what the lack for goverment juice will do for the markets… I may have to watch Kudlow tonight.

  • balitung

    XLF rejected at 50SMA, erased yesterday's gains.

    Nasdaq losses catching up with Dow…

  • DesertEagle

    Oh man Poor ol' Larry will be chugging Jack Daniels tonight..

  • ultra

    Gonna repost this from the previous page, cos I really think you should look at it before doing anything rash to the short side.

    Screaming soylent blue to me at least.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/folde

  • charles_smith

    Agreed–either a lower low or higher low will set the trend. Interesting to note that the past three dips below the 20-day MA lasted 3-4 days so we could close below the 20-day again today and still pop back up next week.

    This seems too easy (the drop)–makes me nervous that the sentiment and McClellan are flashing buys.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Tran breaking the lows a couple of days ago…

    http://screencast.com/t/oPCqsKl0e

  • DMS425

    or smoking crack like he did in the good old days………………………..

  • innatedc

    Now theres a great leading indicator…..we know what follows that.

  • fuw

    1h euro/usd update – triangle forming?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/3cMyRaoCbA

    It recently bounced on the main long term trendline (again), and a retest of the upper line is in the cards. I would really like to see a clean break of the lower trendline (and then 1.470) just to get it over with.

  • innatedc

    And how long did the sentiment and McClellan flash sells?

  • innatedc

    When was the last time anyone saw this kind of ES volume at this “usually dead time” of day?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    APOL is getting ready for the next leg down OR Finding a bottom…..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dead time is usually at 3AM

  • innatedc

    And when the GS boys go for lunch…..not today, it seems.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Those people who bought yesterday on those GDP #'s are screaming now lol

  • CorporalCarrot

    Oh my!!!!!!

  • innatedc

    Hold your horses, boys and girls!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    SPX new lows..Weeeeeeee

  • innatedc

    1042 broken….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    and INDu and Nasdaq

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    excellent, ditto the Russell.
    Trans confirm the leader down

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Check out the Halloween post @ Outside The (Cardboard) Box:

    http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com

    Hysterical

  • spudthorpe

    Mole, as several people brought up in comments last night, there's an alternate count that retains its bearish potential even if we don't plunge through Wednesday's lows today. That count has Wednesday's lows as the end of wave i, yesterday's high as a of ii, and today's dip as b of ii. In that case we could turn around and head higher in c of ii – up to the 1070s or even low 1080s – before setting new lows in wave iii.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Vix still has not made a new high grrrrrrrrr

  • fuw

    What a beauty! The Halloween scare in action.

  • elliott_surfs

    Can anyone confirm breach of Weds. lows on the ES? (around 12:15pm)

  • Scoops

    P3's job is to give everyone false signals. By the time an ideal entry point is given it will be too late.

  • newbear

    After months of torture this is refreshing.

  • ultra

    I gotta say… this is the best bear trap yet. Hats off to all concerned.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    the low is 1037.25 Did not get there yet

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    aren't the timescales all wrong for the ii to be complete ?…..the wave 1 lasted an entire week, you'd expect the abc retrace to last at least that long…..

  • elliott_surfs

    Thank you =)

  • ultra

    SPX new low according to my screen, yes.

  • goldpackers

    Believe we have 5 down into wed low. This is b of 2 or 1 of 3. Need to break 1042 spx. Big gann days M/T. If we break this p.m. then expect hard down M/T to complete an A-B-C down, then x wave into 11-9 before another A-B-C down. Do not believe this is the biggey but expect 978 if not 900.

  • tfinavia

    He had it flashing sells since mid May.

  • amokta

    whats going on – GDP up yesterday, but dow/ftse all down big-style today ??
    is this up/down good for my spx puts (had increased from $17 to $23, now back to 17) ?
    time to buy more puts, or wait a bit?

  • skynard

    Wow! Washed out yesterday.

  • goldpackers

    DJU,DJT,DIA,QQQQ all took out yesterdays low. Need to see continued selling this p.m. not MUTUAL FUND buying spree

  • goldpackers

    Wednrsday's lows

  • KidDisco

    Looks like a double bottom to me…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    GMAK
    are your EUR pivots on the futures? If so we are just above your S1

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems when the market is down Berk is hiding. He only comes out when the market is up lol

  • fuw

    I agree that we need a clearer break for some confidence.

  • skynard

    To the tick! Got 1042.19.

  • gregn

    Berk is here when it's high so he can give good short ideas.

  • Tronacate

    Seems the perfect bull trap was set this time…….ETF timer just loaded up on QLD and was crowing……yesterday could be another bull graveyard………panic selloff coming on now

  • skynard

    Scratch that!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I've been short AAPL. According to my TA, AAPL needs to stay above the lower white line, not closing below it, for it to pull up from what would become a short-term nose dive into the 50 day EMA or the lower solid green line. While I favor a short-term nose dive, my Apr puts afford me the opportunity to hold through ups and downs.

    http://screencast.com/t/7LswSUGWxK

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    THAR SHE BLOWS!

    I see break of Wednesday lows on both /ES and SPX.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Russell and Transports still going down, but watching like hawk because of that Euro support line from GMAK

  • WTFed

    Yipee!

  • fuw
  • Tronacate

    RIMM below 60….58.94

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Berk I'm going in, I've got Bearish engulfing candles on a key support level for Amazon…What do you think?

  • newbear

    The flood gates are opening!!! YES!!!

  • PeterK80

    Somehow BAC has still not broken below 15… if that breaks this thing can get much worse.

  • innatedc

    Yes they are…

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    VIX also to new high…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, I have plans for both blue and orange, er scratch that, looks like orange is the most likely scenario now that yesterday's low has been taken out (with conviction though?).

  • innatedc

    Bonds moving up…

  • Tronacate

    Dr. Doom says GDP numbers were horrendous when you dig a little…….and then no job recovery until 2012!!….retailers will have one sorry x-mas

  • fuw

    or if you prefer the original:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZH82l_ie9M

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Mole….Too early for Rammstein?

  • thunda72

    Naw…. play that shit!

  • innatedc

    My point exactly….it will be flashing buys for a long time now….

  • fuw

    Now back down at the trendline. If this fucker would break it could provide stage two of the bear boost rocket.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Already at S2 (69.58) on FAS. Yesterday it took until 3pm to hit that on FAZ. I expect a bounce, but if we break through there's a lot of time where we can still get down to S3 (67.57).

  • innatedc

    Massive elevator shaft TICK drops with corresponding Volatility to boot…..that is bearish!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • amokta

    OMG – carnage, just back from meeting, browser froze at dow -184, le-loaded its down 231 !

  • centerline

    Aye. Xmas going to suck ass. For a consumer driven economy, this is going to hurt. My guess is that anybody that is semi-awake knows this… and the market will begin building this in prior to the holidays (as in now). Pump earnings and dump into the year end crapper. One last BULL trap. not bear trap.

  • SpeedSkt1

    something doesn't feel right here……….there's just no bid……..

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Incidentally, for anyone day-trading FAS/FAZ (I don't currently, but I'm observing for the future), the 1% envelope around the 30 period EMA, 1 minute chart seems like a decent indicator. If it breaks outside that envelope (in either direction) it will generally revert back to the 30 period EMA in short order. If it breaks outside that envelope and the bollinger band, it's even better.

    I really need to start charting the occurrences each day and seeing what kind of profit can be made, but figured I would mention it. Pivot points also seem to work well with FAS/FAZ.

  • anotherone

    Highest hourly volume on the SPY in the last three days. During the hour that is usually the lowest volume. While setting a new low and closing below the low from 2 days ago. I think that qualifies as panic. Don't think the guys in the pits took much of a lunch today.

    However, SPY has poked through it's lower Bollinger Band, so it might bounce a little to catch it's breath.

  • centerline

    Was actually looking today at the fractal from last year right at the sell-off. I am watching this as well.

  • gregn

    Great chart, thank you.

  • centerline

    Sounds more like a raid, not panic. Hit em when there sleeping (or eating).

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    I'm glad I got out of both longs yesterday! Watching IYR — it seems to have bounced off of yesterday's low (40.20). It's down less than the SPX at this moment, which gives me pause. Usually on strong down trend days, IYR leads the market down.

  • PRSGuitars

    Ah! heads up!

    DX failed to break yesterdays highs. EUR seems to have bottomed and is reversing off the S1 support pivot. MIGHT HAVE BOTTOMED FOR THE DAY! just beware.

    Hope everyone is doing alright on days like these… wicked, wicked stuff all around. Been very ill lately so I haven't been charting at all as I said I would — I owe you people. Trust me, I know.

  • Tronacate

    All we need is a couple more “buy the dips” to fail miserably…….

  • fuw

    Looks like a dollar bull flag on the 1min.

  • fuw

    Looks like a dollar bull flag on the 1min.

  • anotherone

    Recuperate
    Trade for yourself
    Chart for us

    In that order

  • DesertEagle

    Indeed..

  • Tronacate

    Looks like every bounce is getting sold into……

  • PRSGuitars
  • Tronacate

    RUT is going to lead the pack……..

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    THinking the same on the Euro. My Silver contracts seem to also concur; wanting to hold the previous low at 16.11
    Agree with anotherone
    Get better.
    Thanks for your contribution!

  • gregn

    News from ToS: A real break of 50dma could break the rally.

  • Tronacate

    Very distinct 5 waves down on the RUT daily

  • vision_invisible

    Most stocks I follow are now back at eod Wednesday levels and in a holding pattern – let's see what's next…

  • innatedc

    SPX back below the 89MA on the weekly….very, very key….it sits at 1060, we would need to finish this week above that if the bulls are gonna have anything left. We had a 2 week fakeout above that MA…..nasty bastards.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Damn these illiquid MAR puts… I'm at -200 delta and +300 vega…. SPY down 2.5 points, VIX up almost 5 (!!!), but account only up $700… LOL! (Not that I'd be selling any time soon, though.)

  • Hildenbrandt

    I haven't scanned the board and not in the business of picking bottoms in a bear trend, but the VIX is popping the shit out of the daily BB's.

  • CorporalCarrot

    It appears that we may finally have moved from a 6 month period where the only thing you had to do was pick the dip to buy, to a new phase where all you have to do is pick the rip to sell.

  • clutchshorter

    Is this the confirmation to load up on SPY puts? Or wait for a bounce. I got in yesterday too early and cut my losses

  • gmak

    EUR hit the pivot at 1.4718 and bounced. So what happens now?

    Looking at the 30 min chart, there is a shoulder and head that formed starting at 3:30 AM EDT on the 29th Oct (yesterday), with the head starting at 8:30 am EDT yesterday (the big drop in USD and sky rocket in commodities after the GDP release) and ending in the 12:30 – 12:59 candle today.

    If you believe in H&S (I'm not sure that I do), then we are now beginning the right shoulder. Look at the height of the head! from 1.4727 (the neckline) up to a high of 1.4859 = approx 130 pips. That means the downside target would be 1.46; or about $1,500 per futures contract.

    The left shoulder got up to 1.4763 – now, I don't know if there are any rules about one shoulder vs the other, but the only resistance I see overhead is TD tecnical resistance at the mid bollinger around 1.4759, and the FIB line at 1.4773 – which isn't really a FIB line (only 38 and 62 are IMHO).

    Closer to now, on the 3 min chart, the mid bollinger is at 1.4745 and the upper boll is at 1.4761 – doesn't look like there is a lot of impetus to move up there (London is closed, so it would have to be the work of Evil CBs. heh).

    I would suggest a sideways move into the close from here to put in the bump on the shoulder, no?

    Even though we have gone below the low of Wed on SPX, (not on ES, hmmmmm), we still have not put in a lower low on the daily chart. We would need 1019.95 (call it 1020) to be beat for a new low.

    In the meantime, SPX is sitting on the trendline that began in July (if you have my original chart – check it out, it is the shallower lower violet trend line). I will try to post a chart this weekend for an update. I'm still very confused by all the different trend lines i see, and the varying conclusions that they are producing. Try as I might, I still am unable to replicate TK's trend line that has SPX going below then bearishly coming back on the retrace before falling again. If this was “below the line”, then it is very bearish. If it is “above the line”, then it can still go either way.

    In any case, 1020 is needd for CONFIRMATION that the trend has changed decisively. Heh. you can still collected your Ameros scalping, cause it's a decent ways down ( 20 points is nothing to sneer at the way this market has gone).

    Cheers

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    IYR setting a new low, even as SPX did not.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Am I right in saying that since July, we have not had a single bearish engulfing candlestick pattern like we are showing today?

  • Bart7

    VIX 29.92

  • innatedc

    P3's always start with alot of tepid, meek bears who wait too long to dive into the pool…by the time they are finished dipping their toes all the other kids have already had an hour or so of fun…..

  • dollar

    yesss, cmon in, the water's fine!

  • innatedc

    I've been playing since 1090 my friend….long term IWM puts up 80% already…SPY puts doing well too…

  • Eva S

    All inverse ETFs have similar charts & are probably a good way to go if we have a longer down leg : EDZ, ERY, EEV, FAZ, SMN, DUG, SKF, BGZ etc

  • Tronacate

    RIMM new LOD

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers……

  • gregn

    Chart on momentum based short sell trigger for SPX: http://screencast.com/t/IxtfTwV9gJ

  • Tronacate

    BAC just COLLAPSED through 15….14.75

  • NorbertTO

    VIX above 30, where is resistance? I see 34.59 on the 23.6 fib. and 32.77 on the 200 day.

    Norb

  • thunda72

    Cool… thanks for the info. I've been getting back into FAS this week, with mixed results…

  • Tronacate

    PALM…..11.82

  • innatedc

    IS that a crack I see in the AMZN shell….ummm better wait…that gap fill is screaming at me though…

  • gmak

    DXY high was 76.58; not seven eight point five eight on Wednesday – for all you USD watchers.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Looking to get a little bounce off of S3 (67.57) here for FAS.

  • vision_invisible

    DAMNIT, i wished the banks would just stay afloat…they cant let the banks just fall on their faces.

  • tradejane

    Same here. Sold out all longs except one high-dividend paying stock which I hedged with SRS at the close. Imo it's the banks who are leading us down…

  • http://fundmymutualfund.com TraderMark

    no real support until S&P 1020 and even that is tenous

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/bookkee

  • innatedc

    and transports…

  • NorbertTO

    sry VIX above 31 now

  • Me_XMan

    Where's Benny now?

  • innatedc

    trannies at key support here….3600….

  • centerline

    Finally BAC broke 15. That has been resistance all week. I guess I closed my puts on that one a little too early.

    If it retests and 15 becomes the ceiling, it could be good for more short action.

  • newbear

    Same here I've been in puts until 15.

  • thunda72

    That's awesome…. I've got 31.04. Yee-haw!

  • centerline

    Berk/Mole, thoughts on EL? I went ahead and grabbed some puts earlier. Already doing nice. Looks like there are gaps to sub-38 which is also where the 50 day MA lies. Up 9%+ today on earnings. I didn't check the float, and the spread is little funny – but options are cheap and there is minimally sufficient volume.

  • innatedc

    Now looking for elevator style drops and muted bounces til 990…..

  • amokta

    is there any ETF which seems to hold up better when market going against it (i think BGZ seems good?)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Thanks. $CA & metals also flattening a bit now

  • bshah

    forgive me if it is asked before.. I am short AMZN ( via 110 DEC Puts ). Right now, +ve, but thinking of getting out of it now.. Should I keep it through next week or get rid of them..? tia..

  • centerline

    Yeah. It bounced too many times off of 15, and my trust was waning – so I bailed the other right around 15.10 or so. I have to say that I was expecting a little less drama today! This is great nonetheless – more opportunities starting to open up now that we have a decent move.

  • Eva S

    Wow, that's a huge jump in the VIX. I've been a bull for a long time but the 25% increase looks convincing.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Wouldn't surprise me here to see another charge down in IYR. There is an unfilled gap from Monday at 39.60-ish.

  • fuw

    A bit premature, but maybe something to consider:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/HwifLPi1a

    Yes, we are at totally different times in the rally, but the similarity between the patterns just struck me. Lets see if a HS starts building over the next week. But I think this can be used to caution us bears – funny(!) things can happen.

  • TraderJoe

    Shorted AMZN… who wants to join the party =)

  • Tronacate

    Looks like it's happening

  • elliott_surfs

    I'm pretending to see an even bigger one forming from the March lows…

  • Hildenbrandt

    Anyone else considering selling front-month put spreads?

  • innatedc

    Looking at indicators, it looks as though MACD (8,17,9) are about to crack 0…SS (60,3) hasn't even come out of overbought territory…so your potential reward is huge….but you could tighten trailstop a bit….

  • centerline

    VIX on viagra today. All I can say is wow. 25%+ up

  • newbear

    Gald you've joined, had to sweat it out on this one until now.

  • gmak

    It's end of month. Bids are thin because all the buying was completed by yesterday. No one is left who really wants to be in a position. The only ones buying are those who HAVE to be in a position – or who are buying the dips. lol.

    VIX is up on options because the specialists know they have those who are trying to hedge away risk, by the proverbial balls.

    That's it.

  • Eva S

    All of them look the same to me — i.e. oversold & ready to go up if the $ goes higher.

  • amokta

    great – i have some BGZ, just into profit (could sell and wait for a dip to buy, but then involves commission/spread costs, for my modest holding!)

  • Me_XMan

    “VIX is up 22% and back over 30, the highest since July, and it's been shaky this week, with a spike that some read as a buy signal. “

    Not sure if the bounce up on Monday.

  • gmak

    When I wrote my pre-market, I certainly underestimated the lack of bids from month-end. I never thought we would see this low. Sorry if I misled anyone on SPX /ES.

  • fuw

    Do you mean the repetition of the same pattern, where the two sub-patterns resemble full moce from March lows?

  • amokta

    if today is a down day, will monday be an up day (sure as night follows day?)
    if i could predict this a bit betterr, i could become rich !

  • Me_XMan

    Or Black Monday coming. That would be a death call to bulls.

  • de3600

    you only gave your thoughts you did nothing wrong or mislead anyone

  • Carl V

    Good point but let's remember that usually HS do NOT fail. July was rather the exception. Plus I really don't think we will have a HS here, I think prices will break lower without a RS forming. Look at Russell2000 which has already broken its low of Oct 2.

  • gannsecret

    EVA S
    loved your post yesterday

    Eva S 12 minutes ago in reply to amokta

    BGZ is a sell as the market will be up tomorrow.

    re #1 – not a good idea to be buying SPY puts at this moment

    2:08 pm thursday 10-29-2009

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • de3600

    I hope rimm dies to 40 🙂

  • fuw

    Yes, I'm also not expecting a HS. I just wanted to put this out there.

  • Eva S

    You have to be flexible. If things do not go your way, admit your mistakes & move on. 🙂

  • malusDiaz

    back test, i've got 1039.75 as the trend line from march. (linear, not log)

  • goldpackers

    ????????????? is – is this 1 of 3 down(major bearish) or an A-B-C to be followed by an X wave into 11-10 then another A-B-C down ( minor bearish) into ~11-17.

    BIG gann days M/T IF WE COLLAPSE THE ?????????????? will be answered.

  • charles_smith

    Agreed–either a lower low or higher low will set the trend. Interesting to note that the past three dips below the 20-day MA lasted 3-4 days so we could close below the 20-day again today and still pop back up next week.

    This seems too easy (the drop)–makes me nervous that the sentiment and McClellan are flashing buys.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Tran breaking the lows a couple of days ago…

    http://screencast.com/t/oPCqsKl0e

  • innatedc

    Now theres a great leading indicator…..we know what follows that.

  • fuw

    1h euro/usd update – triangle forming?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/3cMyRaoCbA

    It recently bounced on the main long term trendline (again), and a retest of the upper line is in the cards. I would really like to see a clean break of the lower trendline (and then 1.470) just to get it over with.

  • innatedc

    And how long did the sentiment and McClellan flash sells?

  • innatedc

    When was the last time anyone saw this kind of ES volume at this “usually dead time” of day?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    APOL is getting ready for the next leg down OR Finding a bottom…..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Dead time is usually at 3AM

  • innatedc

    And when the GS boys go for lunch…..not today, it seems.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Those people who bought yesterday on those GDP #'s are screaming now lol

  • CorporalCarrot

    Oh my!!!!!!

  • innatedc

    Hold your horses, boys and girls!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    SPX new lows..Weeeeeeee

  • innatedc

    1042 broken….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    and INDu and Nasdaq

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    excellent, ditto the Russell.
    Trans confirm the leader down

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Check out the Halloween post @ Outside The (Cardboard) Box:

    http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com

    Hysterical

  • spudthorpe

    Mole, as several people brought up in comments last night, there's an alternate count that retains its bearish potential even if we don't plunge through Wednesday's lows today. That count has Wednesday's lows as the end of wave i, yesterday's high as a of ii, and today's dip as b of ii. In that case we could turn around and head higher in c of ii – up to the 1070s or even low 1080s – before setting new lows in wave iii.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Vix still has not made a new high grrrrrrrrr

  • fuw

    What a beauty! The Halloween scare in action.

  • elliott_surfs

    Can anyone confirm breach of Weds. lows on the ES? (around 12:15pm)

  • Scoops

    P3's job is to give everyone false signals. By the time an ideal entry point is given it will be too late.

  • newbear

    After months of torture this is refreshing.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    I gotta say… this is the best bear trap yet. Hats off to all concerned.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    the low is 1037.25 Did not get there yet

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    aren't the timescales all wrong for the ii to be complete ?…..the wave 1 lasted an entire week, you'd expect the abc retrace to last at least that long…..

  • elliott_surfs

    Thank you =)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    SPX new low according to my screen, yes.

  • goldpackers

    Believe we have 5 down into wed low. This is b of 2 or 1 of 3. Need to break 1042 spx. Big gann days M/T. If we break this p.m. then expect hard down M/T to complete an A-B-C down, then x wave into 11-9 before another A-B-C down. Do not believe this is the biggey but expect 978 if not 900.

  • tfinavia

    He had it flashing sells since mid May.

  • amokta

    whats going on – GDP up yesterday, but dow/ftse all down big-style today ??
    is this up/down good for my spx puts (had increased from $17 to $23, now back to 17) ?
    time to buy more puts, or wait a bit?

  • skynard

    Wow! Washed out yesterday.

  • goldpackers

    DJU,DJT,DIA,QQQQ all took out yesterdays low. Need to see continued selling this p.m. not MUTUAL FUND buying spree

  • goldpackers

    Wednrsday's lows

  • KidDisco

    Looks like a double bottom to me…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    GMAK
    are your EUR pivots on the futures? If so we are just above your S1

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Seems when the market is down Berk is hiding. He only comes out when the market is up lol

  • fuw

    I agree that we need a clearer break for some confidence.

  • skynard

    To the tick! Got 1042.19.

  • gregn

    Berk is here when it's up so he can give good short ideas.

  • Tronacate

    Seems the perfect bull trap was set this time…….ETF timer just loaded up on QLD and was crowing……yesterday could be another bull graveyard………panic selloff coming on now

  • skynard

    Scratch that!

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    THAR SHE BLOWS!

    I see break of Wednesday lows on both /ES and SPX.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Russell and Transports still going down, but watching like hawk because of that Euro support line from GMAK

  • WTFed

    Yipee!

  • fuw
  • Tronacate

    RIMM below 60….58.94

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Berk I'm going in, I've got Bearish engulfing candles on a key support level for Amazon…What do you think?

  • newbear

    The flood gates are opening!!! YES!!!

  • PeterK80

    Somehow BAC has still not broken below 15… if that breaks this thing can get much worse.

  • innatedc

    Yes they are…

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    VIX also to new high…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole, I have plans for both blue and orange, er scratch that, looks like orange is the most likely scenario now that yesterday's low has been taken out (with conviction though?).

  • innatedc

    Bonds moving up…

  • Tronacate

    Dr. Doom says GDP numbers were horrendous when you dig a little…….and then no job recovery until 2012!!….retailers will have one sorry x-mas

  • fuw

    or if you prefer the original:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZH82l_ie9M

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Mole….Too early for Rammstein?

  • thunda72

    Naw…. play that shit!

  • innatedc

    My point exactly….it will be flashing buys for a long time now….

  • fuw

    Now back down at the trendline. If this fucker would break it could provide stage two of the bear boost rocket.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Already at S2 (69.58) on FAS. Yesterday it took until 3pm to hit that on FAZ. I expect a bounce, but if we break through there's a lot of time where we can still get down to S3 (67.57).

  • innatedc

    Massive elevator shaft TICK drops with corresponding Volatility spikes to boot…..that is bearish!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Road map for VIX

    http://screencast.com/t/y4k83a7biI

    Correction last time to buy puts in the low 20's

  • amokta

    OMG – carnage, just back from meeting, browser froze at dow -184, le-loaded its down 231 !

  • centerline

    Aye. Xmas going to suck ass. For a consumer driven economy, this is going to hurt. My guess is that anybody that is semi-awake knows this… and the market will begin building this in prior to the holidays (as in now). Pump earnings and dump into the year end crapper. One last BULL trap. not bear trap.

  • SpeedSkt1

    something doesn't feel right here……….there's just no bid……..

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Incidentally, for anyone day-trading FAS/FAZ (I don't currently, but I'm observing for the future), the 1% envelope around the 30 period EMA, 1 minute chart seems like a decent indicator. If it breaks outside that envelope (in either direction) it will generally revert back to the 30 period EMA in short order. If it breaks outside that envelope and the bollinger band, it's even better.

    I really need to start charting the occurrences each day and seeing what kind of profit can be made, but figured I would mention it. Pivot points also seem to work well with FAS/FAZ.

  • anotherone

    Highest hourly volume on the SPY in the last three days. During the hour that is usually the lowest volume. While setting a new low and closing below the low from 2 days ago. I think that qualifies as panic. Don't think the guys in the pits took much of a lunch today.

    However, SPY has poked through it's lower Bollinger Band, so it might bounce a little to catch it's breath.

  • centerline

    Was actually looking today at the fractal from last year right at the sell-off. I am watching this as well.

  • gregn

    Great chart, thank you.

  • centerline

    Sounds more like a raid, not panic. Hit em when there sleeping (or eating).

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    I'm glad I got out of both longs yesterday! Watching IYR — it seems to have bounced off of yesterday's low (40.20). It's down less than the SPX at this moment, which gives me pause. Usually on strong down trend days, IYR leads the market down.

  • PRSGuitars

    Ah! heads up!

    DX failed to break yesterdays highs. EUR seems to have bottomed and is reversing off the S1 support pivot. MIGHT HAVE BOTTOMED FOR THE DAY! just beware.

    Hope everyone is doing alright on days like these… wicked, wicked stuff all around. Been very ill lately so I haven't been charting at all as I said I would — I owe you people. Trust me, I know.

  • Tronacate

    All we need is a couple more “buy the dips” to fail miserably…….

  • fuw

    .

    wtf

  • fuw

    Looks like a dollar bull flag on the 1min.

  • anotherone

    Recuperate
    Trade for yourself
    Chart for us

    In that order

  • Tronacate

    Looks like every bounce is getting sold into……

  • PRSGuitars
  • Tronacate

    RUT is going to lead the pack……..

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    THinking the same on the Euro. My Silver contracts seem to also concur; wanting to hold the previous low at 16.11
    Agree with anotherone
    Get better.
    Thanks for your contribution!

  • gregn

    News from ToS: A real break of 50dma could undo the rally.

  • Tronacate

    Very distinct 5 waves down on the RUT daily

  • vision_invisible

    Most stocks I follow are now back at eod Wednesday levels and in a holding pattern – let's see what's next…

  • innatedc

    SPX back below the 89MA on the weekly….very, very key….it sits at 1060, we would need to finish this week above that if the bulls are gonna have anything left. We had a 2 week fakeout above that MA…..nasty bastards.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Damn these illiquid MAR puts… I'm at -200 delta and +300 vega…. SPY down 2.5 points, VIX up almost 5 (!!!), but account only up $700… LOL! (Not that I'd be selling any time soon, though.)

  • Vardoger

    I'm not in the business of picking bottoms in a bear trend, but the VIX is popping the shit out of the daily BB's.

  • CorporalCarrot

    It appears that we may finally have moved from a 6 month period where the only thing you had to do was pick the dip to buy, to a new phase where all you have to do is pick the rip to sell.

  • ClutchShorter

    Is this the confirmation to load up on SPY puts? Or wait for a bounce. I got in yesterday too early and cut my losses

  • gmak

    EUR hit the pivot at 1.4718 and bounced. So what happens now?

    Looking at the 30 min chart, there is a shoulder and head that formed starting at 3:30 AM EDT on the 29th Oct (yesterday), with the head starting at 8:30 am EDT yesterday (the big drop in USD and sky rocket in commodities after the GDP release) and ending in the 12:30 – 12:59 candle today.

    If you believe in H&S (I'm not sure that I do), then we are now beginning the right shoulder. Look at the height of the head! from 1.4727 (the neckline) up to a high of 1.4859 = approx 130 pips. That means the downside target would be 1.46; or about $1,500 per futures contract.

    The left shoulder got up to 1.4763 – now, I don't know if there are any rules about one shoulder vs the other, but the only resistance I see overhead is TD tecnical resistance at the mid bollinger around 1.4759, and the FIB line at 1.4773 – which isn't really a FIB line (only 38 and 62 are IMHO).

    Closer to now, on the 3 min chart, the mid bollinger is at 1.4745 and the upper boll is at 1.4761 – doesn't look like there is a lot of impetus to move up there (London is closed, so it would have to be the work of Evil CBs. heh).

    I would suggest a sideways move into the close from here to put in the bump on the shoulder, no?

    Even though we have gone below the low of Wed on SPX, (not on ES, hmmmmm), we still have not put in a lower low on the daily chart. We would need 1019.95 (call it 1020) to be beat for a new low.

    In the meantime, SPX is sitting on the trendline that began in July (if you have my original chart – check it out, it is the shallower lower violet trend line). I will try to post a chart this weekend for an update. I'm still very confused by all the different trend lines i see, and the varying conclusions that they are producing. Try as I might, I still am unable to replicate TK's trend line that has SPX going below then bearishly coming back on the retrace before falling again. If this was “below the line”, then it is very bearish. If it is “above the line”, then it can still go either way.

    In any case, 1020 is needd for CONFIRMATION that the trend has changed decisively. Heh. you can still collected your Ameros scalping, cause it's a decent ways down ( 20 points is nothing to sneer at the way this market has gone).

    Cheers

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    IYR setting a new low, even as SPX did not.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Am I right in saying that since July, we have not had a single bearish engulfing candlestick pattern like we are showing today?

  • Bart7

    VIX 29.92

  • innatedc

    P3's always start with alot of tepid, meek bears who wait too long to dive into the pool…by the time they are finished dipping their toes all the other kids have already had an hour or so of fun…..

  • dollar

    yesss, cmon in, the water's fine!

  • innatedc

    I've been playing since 1090 my friend….long term IWM puts up 80% already…SPY puts doing well too…

  • Eva S

    All inverse ETFs have similar charts & are probably a good way to go if we have a longer down leg : EDZ, ERY, EEV, FAZ, SMN, DUG, SKF, BGZ etc

  • Tronacate

    RIMM new LOD

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers……

  • gregn

    Chart on momentum based short sell trigger for SPX: http://screencast.com/t/IxtfTwV9gJ

  • Tronacate

    BAC just COLLAPSED through 15….14.75

  • NorbertTO

    VIX above 30, where is resistance? I see 34.59 on the 23.6 fib. and 32.77 on the 200 day.

    Norb

  • thunda72

    Cool… thanks for the info. I've been getting back into FAS this week, with mixed results…

  • Tronacate

    PALM…..11.82

  • innatedc

    IS that a crack I see in the AMZN shell….ummm better wait…that gap fill is screaming at me though…

  • gmak

    DXY high was 76.58; not seven eight point five eight on Wednesday – for all you USD watchers.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Looking to get a little bounce off of S3 (67.57) here for FAS.

  • vision_invisible

    DAMNIT, i wished the banks would just stay afloat…they cant let the banks just fall on their faces.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Same here. Sold out all longs except one high-dividend paying stock which I hedged with SRS at the close. Imo it's the banks who are leading us down…

  • http://fundmymutualfund.com TraderMark

    no real support until S&P 1020 and even that is tenous

    http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/bookkee

  • innatedc

    and transports…

  • NorbertTO

    sry VIX above 31 now

  • Me_XMan

    Where's Benny now?

  • innatedc

    trannies at key support here….3600….love that two-titted double top though….makes me horny…

  • centerline

    Finally BAC broke 15. That has been resistance all week. I guess I closed my puts on that one a little too early.

    If it retests and 15 becomes the ceiling, it could be good for more short action.

  • newbear

    Same here I've been in puts until 15.

  • thunda72

    That's awesome…. I've got 31.04, up over 25%. Yee-haw!

  • centerline

    Berk/Mole, thoughts on EL? I went ahead and grabbed some puts earlier. Already doing nice. Looks like there are gaps to sub-38 which is also where the 50 day MA lies. Up 9%+ today on earnings. I didn't check the float, and the spread is little funny – but options are cheap and there is minimally sufficient volume.

  • innatedc

    Now looking for elevator style drops and muted bounces til 990…..

  • amokta

    is there any ETF which seems to hold up better when market going against it (i think BGZ seems good?)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Thanks. $CA & metals also flattening a bit now

  • bshah

    forgive me if it is asked before.. I am short AMZN ( via 110 DEC Puts ). Right now, +ve, but thinking of getting out of it now.. Should I keep it through next week or get rid of them..? tia..

  • centerline

    Yeah. It bounced too many times off of 15, and my trust was waning – so I bailed the other right around 15.10 or so. I have to say that I was expecting a little less drama today! This is great nonetheless – more opportunities starting to open up now that we have a decent move.

  • Eva S

    Wow, that's a huge jump in the VIX. I've been a bull for a long time but the 25% increase looks convincing.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    Wouldn't surprise me here to see another charge down in IYR. There is an unfilled gap from Monday at 39.60-ish.

  • fuw

    A bit premature, but maybe something to consider:
    http://www.screencast.com/t/HwifLPi1a

    Yes, we are at totally different times in the rally, but the similarity between the patterns just struck me. Lets see if a HS starts building over the next week. But I think this can be used to caution us bears – funny(!) things can happen.

  • JeanValJean

    Shorted AMZN… who wants to join the party =)

  • Tronacate

    Looks like it's happening

  • elliott_surfs

    I'm pretending to see an even bigger one forming from the March lows…

  • Vardoger

    Anyone else considering selling front-month put spreads?

  • innatedc

    Looking at indicators, it looks as though MACD (8,17,9) are about to crack 0…SS (60,3) hasn't even come out of overbought territory…so your potential reward is huge….but you could tighten trailstop a bit….

  • centerline

    VIX on viagra today. All I can say is wow. 25%+ up

  • newbear

    Gald you've joined, had to sweat it out on this one until now.

  • gmak

    It's end of month. Bids are thin because all the buying was completed by yesterday. No one is left who really wants to be in a position. The only ones buying are those who HAVE to be in a position – or who are buying the dips. lol.

    VIX is up on options because the specialists know they have those who are trying to hedge away risk, by the proverbial balls.

    That's it.

  • Eva S

    All of them look the same to me — i.e. oversold & ready to go up if the $ goes higher.

  • amokta

    great – i have some BGZ, just into profit (could sell and wait for a dip to buy, but then involves commission/spread costs, for my modest holding!)

  • Me_XMan

    “VIX is up 22% and back over 30, the highest since July, and it's been shaky this week, with a spike that some read as a buy signal. “

    Not sure if the bounce up on Monday.

  • gmak

    When I wrote my pre-market, I certainly underestimated the lack of bids from month-end. I never thought we would see this low. Sorry if I misled anyone on SPX /ES.

  • fuw

    Do you mean the repetition of the same pattern, where the two sub-patterns resemble full move from March lows?

  • amokta

    if today is a down day, will monday be an up day (sure as night follows day?)
    if i could predict this a bit betterr, i could become rich !

  • Me_XMan

    Or Black Monday coming. That would be a death call to bulls.

  • de3600

    you only gave your thoughts you did nothing wrong or mislead anyone

  • Carl V

    Good point but let's remember that usually HS do NOT fail. July was rather the exception. Plus I really don't think we will have a HS here, I think prices will break lower without a RS forming. Look at Russell2000 which has already broken its low of Oct 2.

  • gannsecret

    EVA S
    loved your post yesterday

    Eva S 12 minutes ago in reply to amokta

    BGZ is a sell as the market will be up tomorrow.

    re #1 – not a good idea to be buying SPY puts at this moment

    2:08 pm thursday 10-29-2009

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • de3600

    I hope rimm dies to 40 🙂

  • fuw

    Yes, I'm also not expecting a HS. I just wanted to put this out there.

  • Eva S

    You have to be flexible. If things do not go your way, admit your mistakes & move on. 🙂

  • rosocecasita

    back test, i've got 1039.75 as the trend line from march. (linear, not log)

  • goldpackers

    ????????????? is – is this 1 of 3 down(major bearish) or an A-B-C to be followed by an X wave into 11-10 then another A-B-C down ( minor bearish) into ~11-17.

    BIG gann days M/T IF WE COLLAPSE THE ?????????????? will be answered.