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Whatever It Takes 2.0
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Whatever It Takes 2.0

by The MoleApril 11, 2019

It has long been said that voters and people in general have very short memories. That may be true which is why it befalls to the few among us who actually pay attention to point out the fact that we may be living through the continental version of Groundhog Day. And to be honest – Bill Murray’s version was a lot more amusing.

‘Whatever it takes’ were the very words uttered by Mario Draghi in his now famous speech on July 26th 2012 when assuring his audience that he would consider every conceivable measure in the ECB’s arsenal to preserve the Euro.

And barely seven years later it seems the grand European monetary experiment is right back from whence it came and where it has remained stuck in almost since its very inception: in a state of constant economic crisis. And if you think about it this is not surprising to the least as crisis management in fact has now become the modus operandi of central banks across the Western financial system.

Bailouts, ZIRP, and a laundry list of unorthodox monetary policies have done exactly zilch to address any of the underlying structural problems, which are not monetary in nature but macro-economic. I could go on here in length but we’ve covered this topic exhaustively in the past.

Over time I had grown to be a bit black pilled about the whole situation, prepared to just extract myself from the incessant noise, the clickbait, the political drama, with a focus on living out my life in a state of relative peace and sanity. It’s a rare luxury I credit to having chosen a life as a trader which enables me to operate from pretty much anywhere on this planet with a decent climate and an Internet connection (certain timezones being more difficult than others).

However change is in the air. In recent years there have been rumblings all across Europe, the most prolific one being Brexit and more recently the gilets jaunes demonstrations in France that over the course of 21 weeks managed to destroy the political career of Emmanuel Macron, who only a year ago had been widely hailed as the grand new leader of Europe.

What the future holds of course is unclear but I have an inkling that the European elections this May will serve as a means to vent a lot of pent up anger over the increasingly overreaching policies coming out of Brussels and by extension that of the European Central Bank.

In any case, Mario Draghi is set to relinquish is post as ECB chairman later this year but the economic and political consequences of eight years of quantitative easing will be felt in Europe for many years to come.

I had a bit of a chuckle yesterday when I came across a ZeroHedge tweet claiming that the EUR was taking a tumble. My response:

And indeed the EUR bounced right back up – fortunately it missed my stop at break/even by a handful of pips. I have gotten quite lucky there in the past few weeks which makes me highly suspicious that some hammer is going to drop anytime soon 😉

I took another peek at the LT panels and actually started to wonder why I was bothering to trade the EUR in the first place. It’s been a rough ride over the past few years which now has evolved to a slow motion churn to the downside. Sort of what we’re seeing politically as well so I guess it’s par for the course.

Talking of ailing symbols: Gold has been making its way higher after stopping out my first campaign but luring me into a reload. So far so good and I’m moving my trail to break-even. However intra-day volatility is rather worrisome and I’m not sure how long I’ll be able to trail this one higher, assuming of course it finally deigns to pick a direction.

The subs and I took a long position in the ZB the other day and although it’s pushing in the right direction I’m not seeing a lot of mojo here, so we could be looking at more sideways burn. I mused on Tuesday that bonds have a tendency to oscillate between sideways churn and sound barrier breaching trending tape. She’s a fun ride if you manage to secure a seat on the bus but boy she’s really making you work for it.

My E-Mini campaign finally came to an end after racking up 5.5R over the course of nearly two weeks. Not a bad ride and based on the recent price action I think this baby could have pushed even higher. But there’s no predicting price action and that spells double true during FOMC/ECB double whammy days.

So no complaints whatsoever and I hope some of you were able to scrape out a few R during this juicy low volatility advance in equities. Hopefully with more to come over the next few months!

Shameless Plug

By the way, if you missed these or other recent entries or perhaps even found yourself on the losing end, then head over to the sign up page to once and for all remedy this unfortunate situation. Evil Speculator Gold goes for less than the cost of a single E-Mini handle and if you enjoy trading it you may as well sign up for the Zero which includes Gold plus a continuous feed of our most popular market participation oscillator.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13

    Somewhat in the lane of your post…4hr chart of Cable…wedgin and squeezin and wedgin and squeezin. My bias is up….eventually. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd76e8bb770a37b0bf4337b43b552fd3eccdef628e0382e64c0563475aa507fe.jpg
    On another note, Platty may dip below the breakout (880ish on NF), if so, I’d consider that a gift and will add to the position. Structure is too good in conjunction with the rising plat:gold ratio.

  • ridingwaves

    nice whack job on GC at NY opening, I;m sure they will come up with a reason for it…

  • BobbyLow

    I think you’re more longer term than me so we probably have a different approach.

    But in any case, I’ve tried all kinds of different ways to catch relatively short term swings on Gold and it never worked well because of things happening quite often like your statement regarding the NY opening.

  • HD

    JMHO they put USD first for a reason

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=m5

  • HD

    @Darkthirty nice call at the lows yesterday.

  • Sp00nman

    Definitely groundhog day. Another day of selling vol and getting the market to follow.

  • ridingwaves

    I’ll just add, my lens says the bull move is in play….but maybe its foggy….the picture unclear……damn you london and NY Fixsters, Damn you…..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPbjPOgRtyA

  • zzezzezz
  • ridingwaves

    Well, you gave it a good run Julian
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-arrested-for-conspiracy-and-hacking-2019-04-11?mod=mw_latestnews

    The U.S. Justice Department has charged WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange with conspiring with Chelsea Manning to break into a classified government computer.

    The charge was announced Thursday after Assange was taken into custody in London in connection with a U.S. extradition request, as well as for breaching U.K. bail conditions in 2012.

  • ridingwaves
  • ridingwaves
  • HD

    Funny, the master of the 4-1-1, taken down on 4.11

  • ridingwaves

    See what you get for helping a transvestite…..it might be smart on his part to see if he can change his gender and ask for forgiveness, it worked for the guy who should have been hung…..might work for him….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    High Yield,
    at some point, it just may go ‘parabolic’.

    too far to the down, too far to the up – is the thinking.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a115a548e2f73f23ddc96d2dc1364d5a345a4bdbd5adab435f82f47b84b74440.png

  • HD

    Wish they’d just send Jason Bourne, or some other assassin, in and take these people out. Would have preferred Assange mysteriously found dead. Clinton’s did it so much better.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gov’ts don’t liquidate problems if they are of some value.
    they exploit them.

  • ridingwaves

    true….it was there shitty security protocols……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    speaking of, did anyone question the security around the Boston Bombing? or the Atlanta Olympics bombing?

    there’s more going on, than what the sheeple see IMHO.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Platty is looking to grant my wish…swallow up some sell stops below 890 (NF) where I can add. I’m short Palladium again so nice hedge.

  • Jason13

    Supposedly it is a stock buyback blackout period so market should drain on a liquidity squeeze but maybe only a week or two or three….

  • Jason13

    Zero showing some pretty deep selling.

  • Yoda

    Yes, a disturbance in the Force I sense too

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – what’s happening?

  • Sp00nman

    Ya it’s interesting.. according to some of the info on the interwebs, buybacks the last yr have probably been the biggest buying demand in the equity markets (volume wise).

  • HD

    SPX rallies 6 points higher than I wanted but <2880 sets back up 2860.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, oil pulling back probably isn’t helping equities.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I thought that might trigger you.
    he he

  • Sp00nman

    All eyes on /CL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A -3.0 signal is rathe concerning:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6348c82acce9d7304ce11bbcec89609d85baed5f1152efee28ce660cdb8d832d.png

    Now I don’t feel so bad about being stopped out 😉

  • Sp00nman

    Not much so far.. AAII survey more bullish. Shouldn’t be a big surprise I guess: https://www.aaii.com/o/sentimentsurvey

  • Sp00nman

    Any historical or statistical significance to a -3 signal?

  • BobbyLow

    Took the rest of my profit on Oil (OILU). That was a nice run. Haven’t flipped yet. It’s getting closer to a short but today’s move down might be a normal pull back and then a BTD. Got to let it play out some more. Still up on my Wheat short but price has been screwing around. Lastly, my move from Long BIO to Short BIO yesterday afternoon is helping to keep me overall positive on the day (as of this moment) but it’s still a long way to the close.

  • Ronebadger

    Twice as many bulls than bear…and, a lot of people who just don’t know (like me)

  • HD

    Nice trade!

  • Ronebadger

    So…we’re gonna call that a negative divergence on the 1-Hour?

  • HD

    What would it take to join the sellers?

  • Ronebadger

    Just back up a small pick-up

  • ridingwaves

    well played BL….

    hogs I tell ya….that is where incredible fortunes have been made in last 100 days

  • Yoda

    hmmm, the boat is starting to tilt on one side only

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    All of these have been correct too. Haven’t seen a single one that’s a fade.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Next Thousand trades!!

  • ridingwaves

    gas has gotta come down, the auto industry shifted to trucks, now all these new truck folks are going to pick up a six pack, need to save for gas for commute….no dinner and new deck in back….gas at 4.10-25 here….ready cash is still an issue in debt laden residence….
    RE equity is just that, lose a job and try to use house as bank…..no POI….denied…..

    even a bullish view on symbols doesn’t mask what is going outside my home in America…..
    someone driving 4 hrs RT a day 160 miles…hmmmmm

    chart looks uber bullish, hang up is the 100sma way below….trying to catch up

  • bankwalker
  • bankwalker

    gas 2.53 here

  • ridingwaves

    that would be sweet….I would be taking some country cruises at that price….

  • BobbyLow

    Paid 2.58 this week and there’s a lot of differences in gas prices throughout the country. I currently see prices between 2.55 and 2.70.

  • BobbyLow

    Ya but there’s only one California coastline. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, congrats on 5.5R! Leading by example as usual.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Scott is mentioning his recent sell signaling.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Up on crude short now, flat on Real Estate DRV, down a little on TVIX. Stayin alive.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, you hear about Ford I believe ceasing sedan production and going to only SUVs and trucks? Crazy.. I’ll take a sedan with 3 pedals any day, but I’m obviously in the minority. I can’t stand the deafening whining about gas prices every time they spike.

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah that was really something.

    I’ve only been to CA a couple of times and really liked it out there. It’s a beautiful state. I think it’s an expensive place to live but the demand to live there helps keep it that way.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX (today intraday) 23.27, and holding from 24.10

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Looks like bots got reuters’ TLTRO news wrong.

  • Sp00nman

    link?

  • BKXtoZERO

    180 day VIX chart, positive divergence comparison to November sell off
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8b889c5f40b4bec19d227889ae5b61b0533ab624e55d417b6a9851f1a5b5c0e.png

  • BobbyLow

    I’m with you Sp00man. I bought a new Impala last year and was planning on trading it in a couple of years. Then I find out GM isn’t going to make them anymore. Well GM did me a favor and saved me some money because I’ll probably keep this one until it’s ready for the junkyard now. This Impala has a 3.6 V6 engine that has plenty of balls and averages around 26 MPG around town and over 30 MPG on the highway. My trunk will hold as much and in some cases more stuff than these little dinky SUV’s. It has a great ride, plenty of passenger room and minimal road noise.

    I can see the advantages of a truck but I just can’t see the advantages of these Crossovers/SUV’s. I also think that they all look the same and are ugly as shit.

  • HD

    First time the fast line, MACD, has been negative all month, fwiw in indicator things.

  • ridingwaves

    that fire was straight out of hell…….some folks just never had a chance, fire tornadoes and such…..RIP

  • Sp00nman

    Ya.. cars these days are all too similar and boring. The auto mfrs aren’t all to blame, as the EPA and regulations simply don’t allow for too much variability. These days, everything comes with a damn 4 cyl turbo. NA 6 cyls (outside of some trucks and minivans) went the way of the dodo. Long term that turbo will need to be replaced, not to mention all sorts of other electronic issues. I’m ready for self driving cars at this point.

    The wife has a small SUV because she can “see better.” *facepalm*

  • ridingwaves

    that drive is one where you never look at the fuel gauge but a lot of tight turns and long ways down in some places if you get close to the edge…..

  • ridingwaves

    the German, Japanese and S. Korean sedans rendered domestic sedans margin tight and second rate….it will come back to bite domestic OEM’s is my take…

  • zzezzezz

    holding small shorts on /ES and IWM.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Guys Chief Thanks for the post. BAC still short 1/2 position SPX looks like a minor consolidation and IMO could go either way. SPY volume very anemic
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great trading BL
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Have to get used to Disqus putting in the caption “more replies” on a long thread instead of just having each reply follow the last one. You have to click on it to see if there are any “new” replies. I’m trying to think of why this change is a good thing and nothing comes to mind.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie. 🙂

  • bankwalker

    Disqus can be very quirky.

    Many times I don’t see replies unless I refresh the page, then they are buried anyway.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Sp00nman

    Thx Mark.

  • ridingwaves

    tell me why I don’t like thursdays, tell me why I don’t like thursdays…..if I’m holding GC https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af1350dc60413302e17a0c7b49626deb41c1ef2b8b6e1830148bd150bb7070de.png
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yteMugRAc0

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL unable to bring up a chart If you desire check this out stockcharts.com Weekly chart USO Insert full Ichimoku cloud parameters 8,21,55 Going exactly up into the weekly cloud boundary printing a possible weekly doji. Now very important BL the cloud thickness is thin therefore resistance is minimal. A weekly punch up thru the cloud is bullish BUT a failure here is bearish USO at a very important inflection point BL
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sounds like you need a 5 day bollinger or sma envelope around that mate.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I like it. allows me to ignore your ‘bitchy days’.
    (snort)

  • HD

    Is it too early for a beer?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..not in Boston. {wink}

  • HD

    Boston beers suck. Been digging Tower Staion IPA Fromm mother road in Flagstaff, AZ. Tasty

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    windy today? it’s blustery in PHX.

  • HD

    Haboobs en route amigo. Windy here too.

  • HD

    The tricky part about indicators is doesn’t matter how extreme they are if price only moves 4 handles. Price is the only thing that pays.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BP SPX Weekly
    rather outstanding.

    while 77 is not the highest it’s ever been.
    2018 moved the 200 Weekly down significantly.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37e7ba58cb70c72ee610f24e2b043d2466b51f1a6a454bc9dc99a70b6f91a3bb.png

  • kim

    pump and dump, just some crazy app

  • HD

    All I’m saying is the market can correct via time. It’s been sideways for 5 days now. Sellers need a miracle or it’s gap over 2900 and go.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    do you have any gaps in your charts on the left.

    you know. the gap bow-tie gap trick?

  • HD

    I do. 2860

  • ridingwaves

    I’m loving the aluminum can revival and the plethora of beer makers doing it..

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I was thinking different.
    remember,
    20% of your bull profits belong to Meeeee.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3ac6ad77ff5df8a0698372356d59c7b4254b742fcbd41524d41c9a7d93499ec2.png

  • kim
  • BKXtoZERO

    What is that chart? Thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    My theory:
    somebody’s just selling shorting positions last 3 days.
    it’s going nowhere essentially. those short positions will be closed soon.

  • BKXtoZERO

    NO one knows Paul McCartney was a big trader and wrote this song about VIX
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbKPZd5oihc

  • kim

    it’s performance chart that shows heavy usage on some virtual machine because of some application restart.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the poor get poor, the rich get rich.
    Everybody knows..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lin-a2lTelg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s wine o’clock on my end.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie.

    I’m probably seeing the same thing in a different way and although I saw enough weakness today to take the rest of my profit, there wasn’t enough weakness for me to go short. This is why I didn’t do my normal flip to a short at this time and chose to sit on my hands for the rest of the day. 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Easier than trading

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    parabolic or not,
    it’s going to be interesting.
    Sha-Zaaam!
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/75c542ef950addbff1c62e9a704e818b09f242063c894d2b22a376d9f7388ebd.png
    L8ter.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I know, right?!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you sir 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The old Retest Variation short setup.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    Bravo! I am impressed ….

  • Jason13

    Peep.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You are aware that I was in a campaign?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    after the fact.