UPDATE 11:17am EDT: Good morning my deer whipsawed leeches. Apologies if the site was down – seems like the server was overloaded. If EvilSpeculator keeps getting more and more traffic I might have to move it to a dedicated server at some point. Anyway – the market is doing the unexpected – as expected 🙂 Frankly, unless you’re a crack-smoking daytrader, just stay out and watch the action.
Take a look at this:
Guess where the reversal happened?
I still have some usability issues with putting in those values, but have some ideas about that I’ll share with 2sweeties. Give it a shot yourself and let us know what your thoughts are.
For your convenience, here are the downside reversal levels:
UPDATE 2:40pm EDT: I’ve been quiet for the last two hours as I’m really not doing much on the trading front. Quite frankly, the risk/reward ratio right now is very low for an option trader, and even if we get a massive drop – unless you’re already positioned (and have been holding out through the rips) the pickings will be meager compared with the exposure risk. I rather wait for a clear sign that this wave down has terminated, and start taking on positions as we are pushng up. Berk and I will probably sell some bull put spreads on low beta stocks at first, and as we see Mr. VIX descent into lower altitudes grab some high beta options. This may be tomorrow or it may be next week – you can’t really force the hand of the market, and sometimes doing nothing is the best policy.
I’ll do the update tonight, once I wrap my mind around the various short term probabilities.
UPDATE Closing Bell: I checked over at the slope and it seems EVERYONE is bullish now. Strange – we are not even out of the triangle yet. Well, I hope I’m wrong here and we pop tomorrow and clear that triangle, but frankly I’m still suspicious. This just did not feel real to me. Again, if we clear the triangle tomorrow or Thursday, I’ll be happy to go long, but folks have been getting whipsawed out of their long positions for several days now, and just because they’re all high-fiving each other now doesn’t mean the 2008 bottom is in. I need evidence and a 900 point rally is a good start, that’s all.