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Wicked Wednesday
38

Wicked Wednesday

by The MoleAugust 12, 2015

It’s all smiles down here at the evil lair as Scalpius is starting to get its groove on and managed to bank over 20R in the past two sessions. I’m still fiddling with the trailing logic but at this point it is outperforming what I’m seeing in historical tape. Reason being is that you can never properly simulate the spread, the offers, the available volume – it has to be done live.  Proper trailing is as much an art as it is science as it needs to consider the momentum of the price action and weigh existing against potential future gains. Yes, you can come up with MFE stats but they can be deceptive because your strategy may not be banking coin consistently – some thrive in trending tape, others due to mean reversion. So you want to optimize it for the type of tape it’s built to exploit. In the case of Scalpius that’s ST trending tape.

2015-08-12_scalpius

Picking a range inside that coveted sweet spot has been my recent endeavor and I have resorted to some rather creative approaches, which are truly pushing the envelope but seem to be paying off. The stats above show you the recent live track record which actually missed a few 4R winners (one today) as I’m still fiddling with my b/a spread filters. Definitely work in progress but it’s getting there and clearly I’m on the right track.

2015-08-12_natgas_update

Quick update on natgas – this one looks like it’s good to go. I’ve moved my stop up to the break/even spot now and until this thing picks a direction there’s nothing to do. Natgas has been in this sideways hell for months now, which is rather uncharacteristic. When it finally takes off one of these days there will be hell to pay. They call it the widow maker for a reason.

2015-08-12_ZF_briefing

Alright, we have a ton of setups today, ladies and leeches! Let’s start with the bonds, here’s the five year contract which I’m long with a stop below 110’3. This one could turn into a trending candidate but it’s still a bit early to judge.

2015-08-12_ZN_briefing

Ten year futures – also long here with a stop below 128.

2015-08-12_ZB_briefing

And the thirty year – you get the idea. I have split my R between those three in case you wonder – I’m not that bold and neither should you be.

Quite a bit more below the fold – meet me in the lair:

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By the way the Evil Lair’s genetic science division managed to splice together gene samples of Ragnar Lothbrock plus some essence of Godsmack and Disturbed. Here’s what came out the test tube:

Now I admit – nothing really new here BUT for some reason it’s absolutely brilliant. Can’t stop listening to it. It’s a new band so these guys need some promotion. If you like it send it to everyone you know. And let’s not forget Disturbed is releasing a new album in a few days. Maybe there’s hope for rock & roll in this decade just yet.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Kidd Cudi

    How do you test the so-called ‘anti-fragility’ of a system (the susceptibility of a system to big losers in extreme circumstances)? Scalpius looks like it takes fairly tight stops, which would mean that gaps would hurt real bad if they jumped your stop. That’s just one kind of extreme circumstance, though. In general, is there a good way to test for black-swan resistance, or do you just have to think about it deductively to determine the weaknesses of a system?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, gaps happen and I’ve seen it lose 2R+ once in a while. Part of the system though – just like being whipsawed it cannot be avoided. It will happen.

    I tested Scalpius five years back on 10 symbols with 1-min second series data – which is what the executions were based on. Meaning it often got horrible fills – much worse than what you would see in live tape. So I think there is room for the occasional FU move.

  • Skynard

    Crude and dollar are rocking, stopped out of /ES. Got on the /ZL bus at 30.00 and just attempted another long entry with the small signal range.

  • newbfxtrader

    good you got out. We will get a better buy setup in a few days.

  • newbfxtrader
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero snappy – if this divergence holds we may have a nice long entry…

  • newbfxtrader

    @2040 maybe. gotta see the whites in their eyes before shooting….

  • Skynard

    Watching 2050 area, needs to hold this.

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/3zLJ3i2z/

    2040 held like four times already. Better chance slightly lower.

  • Skynard

    Full long

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Balls of steel.

  • newbfxtrader

    2040’s not a bad entry. I think it can go a tad lower 2030’s maybe. zero is bearish on the 5 m at least. One hr showing divergence which should translate into a good long at some point.

  • Skynard

    Wow, dollar shiting the bed:)

  • BobbyLow

    I know it’s boring but I’m still short Crude from $48.40 on this leg. I’m also still short IXE Index via ERY although this one is getting tired.

  • Skynard

    If /ES losses 2040 again we need to put the bear suit on IMHO. This play should stick today.

  • Ronebadger

    Usually, there’s a turn coming when it’s this low…another part of the puzzle…
    http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t like to hear that!

  • Skynard

    Have held this trade for about 3 weeks now, think the dollar has a W3 ccoming for a correction to around 92. Have anticipated this currency move, hard part was when:)

  • buysidetrader

    damm your good

  • Skynard

    Did you notice the currency action last night? Good indicator of a major move:)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Got in also. Getting pretty good pos divergence on hourly.

  • tristan37

    Lots of corn out there apparently, BTFD?

  • Skynard

    Buying all major commod move likes that. Got stopped out of /ZL and long again, major shakeouts here.

  • Skynard

    Damn, kind of looks like we may get another leg down. Going to use caution here and take partial, Will reverse on another gap fill. The signal is not turning me on at all.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good day so far – we pretty much pinned the low. All in a good day’s work…

  • Skynard

    Gap fill coming:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    DONE

  • Skynard

    Reversing @ 2080

  • BobbyLow

    Flipped to long on IXE via ERX but Still Short Crude

  • Skynard

    FN close enough, short now /ES. Closed the gap.

  • Skynard

    Big move on that piss ant signal, look at that FN div!

  • Skynard

    Count as full on this one, one more down. Full short. Could also be a 3 down

  • newbfxtrader

    Nicely done.

  • Billabong

    Very nice long-legged Doji on YM and hammers on ES / NQ. It tells of balance between buyers and sellers at EOD … where next????

  • newbfxtrader

    You cant really tell the future but if I had to guess one more down move then all time highs….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think we need a video tonight 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

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