Which Way Do You Bend Sir?

Not sure how many of you ever visited a tailor – chances are most of you American rats are picking it off the rack (don’t kill the messenger – I have seen you guys dress). I for one swear by a good tailor and it seems the next time I pay him a visit he’ll probably not just ask me which way I dress but which way my new iPhone bends. Ridiculous! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: NEVER ever under Steve Jobs. He’s literally spinning in his grave right now.

2014-09-25_spoos_volume_profile

Alright – so, who saw this one coming? Exactly. As you know I’ve been posting charts here daily for the last six years plus – well over 3000 posts altogether (time flies when you’re having fun). In all those years I’ve always kept it real and when I don’t know something or don’t have an opinion I’m brutally honest about it.

So yesterday I looked at that spike higher and suddenly there was this thought popping in my mind: could this be a repeat of what we saw in July? I swear – but I didn’t post it as that spike higher looked so massive. I don’t really mind missing out on a big move – you guys know how I roll. But I damn well hate it when I don’t listen to my (paranoid) instincts – so mea culpa for letting this one slip through my mind.

2014-09-25_VIX_update

Massive explosion in volatility – a 30% drop in four sessions is going to leave a mark. Well, look at the bright side – if you were long calls here then you actually may be near break even ;-)

2014-09-25_UVOL_DVOL

Alright seriously now – this was completely engineered. I briefly glanced at the site that shall not be named and saw a headline suggesting a dozen reasons for today’s drop off the plate. Hey, I give you one: Because they could. Look at the NYSE volume signal – it’s as smooth as she comes – this suggests an engineered sell off session and all the bots jumped on the bandwagon. Tough to see coming though.

2014-09-25_SPX_update

Alright – the cash shows us support near 1954 on the daily and there’s a weekly NLSL at 1958. Odds are we’re going to see a little bounce nearby. But in order for that to happen we have to see a slowdown in the downside momo. Given that this has been bot and not panic driven I think that scenario looks pretty plausible right now.

2014-09-25_2035

By the way – no divergences on the VXV:VIX ratio side (yet) – also, as you can see this thing came out of nowhere. Damn it – why didn’t they send me that memo? ;-)

2014-09-25_Dollar_update

Update from the Dollar front – it’s now kissing a pretty significant diagonal resistance line near 86. It’s been a good run but I’m heading to the ATM a few times this weekend as I would expect at least an obligatory correction here. BTW, if it pushes higher and above 86 then we may see the EUR/USD at 1.2 this year. I may be able to afford a turkey this Christmas!

2014-09-25_USDTRY_update

Speaking of which – the turks are treating us well as the USD/TRY has pushed above the 2R yard line – in one single session! Awesome and it more than makes up for my NQ debacle this morning. You know the drill – move your stop to the 1R mark.

Alright – I’m having dinner and then it’s back to coding. I have a deliverable for next week and as you guys are apparently excited I’ll push extra hard and labor all weekend to get Thor into beta by early next week. Wish me luck.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

iphone_18720_futurama_bender_smoking_cigar

Post FOMC Madness Update

Finally this month’s FOMC madness session is behind us. As usual I won’t bore you by regurgitating any pertinent tidbits of the day – if you’re interested in the noise I’m sure you’ll know where to find it. Let’s look at some charts instead – shall we?

2014-09-17_spoos_HT_update

Yesterday I told you guys that such a sharp jump off the lows usually suggests continuation higher. So far that’s exactly the scenario that’s been playing out. If you’ve been taking Scott’s hammer time setup – good job and you may now move your stop to the break/even mark.

2014-09-17_spoos_update

Interesting range on the hourly day – we touched both sides and that now establishes the SMA and the upper BB as respective break out / reversal points. However, as I said – at this point odds support continuation higher. Unless we breach below 1982 the bears are officially toast (again).

2014-09-17_NQ_update

The NQ is now approaching a daily NLBL which is also near the 25-day SMA. IF it manages to breach higher then more upside is pretty much procedural.

2014-09-17_VIX_update

And what really really hits below the belt line is the 18% drop on the VIX since yesterday (and we also touched it earlier today). If you were sitting on puts then your premiums just got flushed down the toilet. If you were long calls then (depending on your strike) you may have actually suffered a loss today. Vega squeeze is a bitch indeed.

2014-09-17_USDJPY_update

Update on the USD/JPY campaign – I got stopped out today and then re-entered just in time for the ride higher. Taking 50% profits now and converting the rest to a daily campaign. Never ever underestimate the potential for extended squeezes (long or short) on the FX or futures side. Never.

BTW, that was one beautiful BB squeeze on the hourly – I hope some of you rats took this one.

2014-09-17_EURNOK_update

The EUR/NOK is still in play but it’s so-so – I’m keeping it in play and my stop will take of the rest if it must.

2014-09-17_EURJPY_update

EUR/JPY – another short term campaign I posted yesterday and it’s off to the races. I’m also converting this to a daily campaign but my ISL remains in place.

2014-09-17_cocoa_update

Unfortunately our cocoa campaign found its untimely and ignominious ending today – it had good potential but you can’t win ‘em all. But you can try ;-)

Alright – a few more setups for my intrepid subs below the fold:


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That’s it for today – have fun and keep it frosty.

Cheers,

The Other Shoe Just Dropped

Yesterday I mused that the onus was now on the bulls to push the spoos above 1997 and that an inability to do so may lead to grave consequences sometime next week. It seems like my concerns were justified but the situation escalated a bit earlier than anticipated:

2014-09-12_ES_hourly

Don’t get confused if 1997 is suddenly a mile away – we just rolled over into the December futures contract and thus fair value is at its most extreme. Basically 1990 is now roughly yesterday’s 1997. And that’s almost exactly where the bulls fumbled today and the rest is history as they saying goes. There seems to be a support line on the hourly which now points toward ES 1970. I would not entertain any long positions unless that one gets touched.

2014-09-12_ES_profile

Because of the roll over our profile volume chart is not exactly spot on right now – it’ll take a few days for things to settle properly. But adjusted to the new contract it seems that 1970 represents a volume peak and it’s smack middle in our recent congestion zone. Oh joy… haven’t we suffered enough? ;-)

2014-09-12_VIX_update

Just a few days ago I wasn’t too concerned about a correction beyond a touch of the 25-day SMA. But things have shifted a bit – more specifically the VIX is now building a diagonal support line which is slowly pushing volatility higher in a systematic fashion. That may look innocuous at first but it’s a lot more dangerous actually than a fast emotional spike higher.

2014-09-12_SPX

So unless we see a very quick and violent reversal – preferably today – it’s very much possible that this one will touch the 100-day SMA mark on the SPX which now awaits near 1940. As you can see we are at the 25-day and that’s basically ‘containment territory’ – a drop below it will trigger a bit of panic selling.

2014-09-12_EURUSD_update

Not much to report on the campaign front today. The EUR/USD has triggered a long now but I’m not sure it’ll get out of the gate. Which is surprising given how compressed the hourly Bollingers are. Something’s got to give here soon. Well, I’m long with a stop below yesterday’s lows – system is a system.

2014-09-12_ZN_update

The 10-year bond campaign however is progressing very nicely and it’s time to take 50% off the table as we’re approaching the 3R mark. I’ll shift my stop to the 2R mark in hopes that we’ll touch my target zone at 123’3.

And that’s all I have for this week. Be advised that I’ll be absent Monday through Tuesday morning. But no worries – Scott graciously volunteered to be on point and if needed defend the fort from invading hordes of bear-barians. I will probably put up a quick post Tuesday near the close – see you all then!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,





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