Several nations, including Thailand, Germany (of course) and India, have warned against spreading coronavirus-related misinformation on April Fools’ Day, with some countries even threatening jail time for perpetrators. Which makes me wonder: Had the same regulations applied in late February going into March, then wouldn’t many politicians and so called ‘experts’ in the West be sitting in prison right now? But heck, what do I know? I’ve only been warning about the global threat of COVID-19 since February 7th.
Hope indeed dies last. Last Friday I stumbled across some rather silly statistics which suggested that the double digit rally last week marked the early stages of a new bull market. Such cognitive dissonance may have been caused by acute mental delirium due to late stage COVID-19, but it’s most likely related to the anticipated congressional passage of a $2 trillion stimulus bill aimed at addressing an economy that effectively has come to a screeching halt.
Yesterday’s hypothesis of an unfolding bear market rally appears to playing out thus far. However with indices having recovered about 38% the easy part of the journey is rapidly coming to an end. With bad news galore is it now time to back up the truck and load up on short positions?
It’s a complete mystery to me that some of the smartest people I know continuously have a hard time wrapping their mind around one of the simplest tenets of trading. Plus it’s one that spells double true when it comes to high volatility bear markets: Buy the rumor, sell the news. Of course in the case of bad economic news in the context of a bear market this rule should be inverted to ‘sell the rumor, buy the news’.