If I would have had a crystal ball last week and known that new jobless claims would double that of the 3 Million the week prior, I would have without doubt backed up the truck on short positions with a considerable chunk of my capital. Although I suspected the report would be bad I had no idea HOW bad – and frankly nobody else did either. But I am glad that I didn’t because Ms. Market would have stomped on me without mercy.
I was observing the signal on the Zero throughout yesterday’s session which seemed to be dominated by low volume but consistent selling pressure. Total contract volume was a bit under 24 Million contracts traded which is 85% below the 2020 YTD average of 28 Million. Worse yet – total futures volume was 136k which is only 36% of the 2020 YTD average of 389k per session.
Several nations, including Thailand, Germany (of course) and India, have warned against spreading coronavirus-related misinformation on April Fools’ Day, with some countries even threatening jail time for perpetrators. Which makes me wonder: Had the same regulations applied in late February going into March, then wouldn’t many politicians and so called ‘experts’ in the West be sitting in prison right now? But heck, what do I know? I’ve only been warning about the global threat of COVID-19 since February 7th.
Hope indeed dies last. Last Friday I stumbled across some rather silly statistics which suggested that the double digit rally last week marked the early stages of a new bull market. Such cognitive dissonance may have been caused by acute mental delirium due to late stage COVID-19, but it’s most likely related to the anticipated congressional passage of a $2 trillion stimulus bill aimed at addressing an economy that effectively has come to a screeching halt.