Wall Street bull and bear frenzy

“Backtesting is just an expensive way to find out you would have been wrong with more confidence.”
— THE MOLE

Latest

The Fed Is Just the Opening Act

The Fed announces at 2pm ET, it’s the most telegraphed decision of the year, and the market has treated it as settled for weeks. Which makes the FOMC the opening act – the actual verdict on this market…

The Mole  /  Oct 28, 2026  /  8 min read

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Latest articles

Market Outlook

Bitcoin gets the penthouse, alts get the bill.

Somebody is paying for Bitcoin’s floor this month. Take a guess who. BTC is down about 5%. SOL is down about 18%. Same market, same…

The Mole  /  Oct 27, 2026  /  9 min read

Market Outlook

$200bn Of Capex And This Week Is The Audit

The easy part of the AI trade is over. Anybody can write a check for $200 billion. This week the three biggest names in the…

The Mole  /  Oct 26, 2026  /  9 min read

Market Outlook

Stop watching BTC. Watch ETH.

So far BTC has held. Everything else didn’t. Now if your first reaction to that sentence is relief, we need to talk. Because that is…

The Mole  /  Oct 25, 2026  /  9 min read

Market Outlook

Don’t Sell This Put

For the past two years the only question the market asked about AI spending was how big the number could get. Like a dog with…

The Mole  /  Oct 23, 2026  /  9 min read

Market Outlook

The ETF Bid Can’t Get Past The Bouncer

Here is the part that doesn’t make it into the ETF flow tweet: a billion dollars just showed up, and it changed nothing. Three days…

The Mole  /  Oct 22, 2026  /  9 min read

Systems

Expected move vs. reality

Charts, credit, and real-world positioning for people who prefer an actual plan.

Crypto

Same scams, new narratives

Charts, credit, and real-world positioning for people who prefer an actual plan.

Macro

The everything bubble, again

Charts, credit, and real-world positioning for people who prefer an actual plan.

From the dungeon

Older posts that made us cringe.

Reset your market perspective

A timeless reminder that nothing is new, and you are not as smart as you think you are.

Nov 15, 2019

The game hasn’t changed

Same incentives. Same players. Same nonsense.

Apr 3, 2018

Why systems beat opinions

Feelings do not compound. Edge does.

Jan 10, 2016