No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)

I’m sure you all know what I’m talking about. Here we were trying to short this bitch several times in the past two days which on my end resulted in three ignominious stop outs – the last one at 1982. Only 1.5R lost, so it wasn’t a big deal but pretty much what I told you yesterday ‘would happen’ of course ‘did happen’ the next day. There was no reason for my stop to be at 1986 – it was too far in enemy territory. And then equities got Amazoned and here we are fifteen SPX handles lower. So what do we do now?

I tell you what we’re going to do. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. We did everything in our power to exploit an entry opportunity near an inflection point and we simply didn’t get in. That’s life and unless you were on the inside there was no knowing ahead of time that Bezos would slip on the banana peel last night. Don’t beat yourself up – actually better yet, get used to it. Which is why we don’t take large risks on the equities side – or any correlated market for that matter. 1% is the max and if you’re a stock market junkie then always keep a close eye on being as delta neutral as possible (look it up or ask in the comment section).

Now on the ES futures we’re near 1971 right now and there are no major support zones nearby. ES 1966 looks like the next best line in the sand as the 100-hour BB is lingering around down there.

The S&P cash however has been holding its 100-hour SMA and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if it holds.

But the real news of the day is the one that hasn’t been reported. While everyone else is talking about yesterday’s losers I’ve been taking a long position on the Dollar side (yes, I can’t believe I just said that). This is actually a weekly setup I shared with my subs last night and originally we’ve been expecting ole’ bucky to do the same old thing which is fold like a chair near any major LT resistance. Now I can’t promise/expect that this time it’ll be different but those two NLBL breaches do look promising. The fun may begin if we see a pop aboe 80.993 – so make it 81. That’s where the 25-day SMA sits right now and we’ve got plenty of air looming above.

This is the first time I’ll show the turkish lira here and I have to confess that I haven’t traded this one before. So I’ll ease myself into this one with 1/2R. I however do like the double inside day – and I’ll play the outer one on the stop side. I hope that’s clear as I don’t think my drawing is. Long Sunday on either breach of today’s candle (high or low) – but set your stop on the opposite side of the Thursday candle.

More setups waiting below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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And now it’s time again to kick back and crack open a bottle of your favorite alcoholic beverage. As you all know in my case that of course would be a bottle of Hefeweizen. A simple Paulaner is one of my favorites – it’s smooth but has that typical Bavarian disciplined but hefty flavor. Simple pleasures…. Well, I hope to see you all next week :-)

Prost!

Three Strikes You’re Out

Equities have been whipsawing near our inflection point at 1982 which led me to lose 1/2 R twice (one short and one long) and it looks like my third short entry is about to meet its maker at any moment. Looking at equities across the board the odds seem to support a continuation higher but this is where I have to draw the line.

Three trades per campaign is my maximum no matter what. Either way this one swings it’s going to be annoying as I did not have any directional bias and thus attempted to get positioned near inflection points. But as I internalized my emotional response today I realized that this was exactly when I needed to step back and follow what I preach – not let my emotions get in the way of trading. Fact is that right now I don’t see a good entry here and let’s be clear: the worst thing one can get drawn into are revenge trades or attempting to chase a big move.

Fortunately however my AUD/JPY campaign has made up for some of the damage on the equities side and then some – plus it may have legs. Nice breach there yesterday and today it managed to climb just a few pips short of the 2R mark. I’ll be putting my stop at 1R now and now we see if we got a runner here.

By the way, this goes to show that it doesn’t make sense to fall prey to one-ities (a.k.a. an obsession) for a particular symbol. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – I don’t HAVE to trade equities just because it’s on everyone’s radar all the time. As a matter of fact if it wasn’t for the blog I would probably only look it once or twice a week. The forex side is actually where most of the action is these days which is why I have been trying to get more of you retail rats up to speed. More on that in the coming soon – I actually have an exciting announcement planned for next week.

Two more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later tomorrow.

Cheers,

Time To Wield The Iron

I’ll be quick as we may be dealing with a small window of opportunity here. The S&P E-Mini has painted new all time highs and that means we’re pressing our noses against that volume abyss I haven’t tired pointing out to you guys for the past few weeks. Given the various Soylent scenarios Scott and I have been pimping over the past few days this leaves us with a prime entry opportunity:

Let me paint the picture. A bit over an hour ago I pointed out a glaring bearish signal divergence on the Zero Lite (right panel) to all my subs. Some of you are already short and it was a good entry – however given the fact that price has not responded at all, despite rapidly diminishing participation (i.e. flatline signal on the Zero) we will have to follow price and price only!

However if nothing else today’s ramp & camp candle thus far suggests that we are kissing an important inflection point, which obviously lines up with the upper limit of the current trading range.

Let me throw this one into the soup as well – our GBP/JPY carry trade correlation which has kept us out of a lot of traps over the past few months. Now for anyone long this should be quite concerning, nevertheless given where we are and the increasing possibility of a short squeeze I’m going to propose to distinct setups – one with a high probability good return ratio and one with a low probability but high return ratio.

It’s quite elementary Holmes – we are short right here with a stop at 1982 which is a number I basically pulled out of my rectum. Well to be honest there is that sideways 100-hour BB that’s blocking the way and I felt that it’s as good a line in the sand as any.

Now one of two things are going to happen – we drop from here and I smile all the way to the next turning point which is probably an R or two away. OR I will get stopped out in which case I’m already set up to be long with a stop very nearby below 1979 (where we pretty much are right now, plus minus a few ticks).

Caveat – do NOT play this setup on the Spiders or any other equities based ETF – that includes SPX/SPY options and any of the 2x and 3x symbols you like to trade. You will only and I repeat ONLY take this setup on the ES futures as this will require you to monitor ¬†and manage the situation rather closely. If we get a big spike (or drop) overnight then you don’t want to find yourself 10-15 handles in the minus because you had to wait until the NYSE opening bell.

Also, don’t get overexposed – use our futures risk calculator if in doubt and only attribute between 1/2R – 1R to this campaign. Actually 1/2 ought to suffice on the long side as it’ll probably take off like gangbusters if we reach the inflection point of no return (which we hope is 1982 and above).

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator

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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Don’t buy the dip this time
    2. No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)
    3. Entries Do Not Matter
    4. Last Chance For The Bears
    5. Three Strikes You’re Out
    6. Binary Proposition
    7. Time To Wield The Iron
    8. Zone of Fuckery
    9. Whipsaw Galore
    10. Fridays Stunning Reversal and What it Means




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