Better Triptych Than Cryptic

I can literally see you guys scratching your collective heads, so let’s precede the charts with what the heck a ‘triptych’ is supposed be. Here you go – lifted right off Wikipedia: A triptych is a work of art (usually a panel painting) that is divided into three sections, or three carved panels which are hinged together and can be folded shut or displayed open. It is therefore a type of polyptych, the term for all multi-panel works.

2014-08-29_spoos_update

Well, I guess that cleared it all right up then, didn’t it? And you’ll be happy to know that all triptychs presented today were painstakingly hand-carved by yours truly. That’s right – we spare no expense here at Evil Speculator! (RIP Richard!)

Alright now seriously – it’s the end of the month and since the tape is diddle daddling around the 2k mark, pretending that it has any real meaning, this is as good a time as ever to revisit a few of our long term charts. And guess what – we’ll do it triptych style, meaning we look at the daily|weekly|monthly panels side by side. This way we are able to better discern where potential inflection points are present.

2014-08-29_spoos_triptic

Starting of course with equities here we have the E-Mini futures – purists would insist on charting the cash but on the long term side I think it’s acceptable to use them as price differences sort of wash out. As you can see there is – well, actually there’s almost nothing to be seen here in terms of upside resistance. I see a truck load of weekly and monthly support, for that matter. For instance there’s the brand spanking new NLSL on the weekly backed up by the 25-week SMA. On the monthly we’ve got the diagonal from hell which has been frustrating the bears for several years now. And every month higher produces another stepping stone for the bulls per the Net-Line rules (see the cheat sheet).

So we are looking at a solid trend here folks and if you cut out all the noise it’s never been really threatened this year, despite the little drop we recently played quite effectively.

2014-08-29_DX_tryptic

This chart paints a big smile on this lowly expat’s silly face – old bucky finally got its groove on and there’s really nothing holding it back until about 83.5. That is where I expect to be scaling out of those long positions which have been adding much ill-gotten gains to my trading account.

More non-cryptic triptychs below the fold – secret decoder ring required:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Well, it’s been a fun and most of all – very profitable – summer for us steel rats. If you played along then you pad yourself on the shoulder and reward yourself with generous helping of your favorite malt beverage. Your mileage may vary but you know what that means for this old market megalomaniac :-)

german_beer2

Prost!

Forex Plays

Judging by the participation in the comment section you guys aren’t amused by today’s tape and I can’t really blame you. So let’s mosey over to the Forex side as it’s looking a lot more tantalizing.

2014-08-27_DX_update

The Dollar is taking it on the chin today and the DX is now back at the 100-hour SMA. That’s actually rather healthy as I prefer it see take a breather and shake out some weak hands as opposed to snapping higher and painting a blow off top. Let’s see what happens here – a close today below the daily NLSL could lead to more downside – however, I would watch the 100-hour, if it holds this may be contained. Next support zone is near 82.13.

2014-08-27_EURUSD_setup

I’m short the EUR/USD right now just before its daily NLBL. That is an excellent entry until it clears that 100-hour SMA. Not averse to flipping if being stopped out. It’s been an extended sell off for this pair and if it manages to finally clear a daily NLBL we could see a little jump higher shedding some of the fat.

2014-08-27_AUDUSD_setup

AUD/USD – very nice formation here and also consider that juicy Bollinger compression on the daily. I want to be long above that NLBL with a stop below today’s lows.

2014-08-27_AUDJPY_setup

Finally AUD/JPY – this is an hourly play on a breach above the current NLBL. If it does then we could see an extended squeeze here, which would not be out of the norm for a currency pair. Many top callers here and although I’m only going to drop 1/2R into this it may pay off well if it catches some traction.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

How To Let Your Winners Run

It’s Monday morning and I’m not going to bore you guys with an exhaustive reflection on why traders should adopt a policy of cutting your losers short and letting your winners run. If you haven’t caught on to this very basic tenet of trading survival 101 then you either are new here or haven’t been paying attention.

2014-08-25_dollar_briefing

Instead I’m going to let our charts do the talking as the two specimen at hand should be considered textbook examples of how a strong trend can extend to unanticipated highs (or lows in the context of short campaigns). The Dollar campaign actually started as an hourly entry which then got converted into a daily setup when it breached a NLBL. I did make quite a fuzz about the long term implications of the inflection point at hand during that time. Unfortunately judging by the comment section it got either ignored or you guys simply disagreed.

Whatever it may be – the tape started to move in my favor for about two weeks, at which point ole’ bucky entered a sideways correction below 81.7. I could have taken partial profits there but given the squeeze potential I simply advanced my stop a healthy distance away and was able to sit things out. Now there is no real recipe for doing this properly – it takes a bit of finesse but my general approach in a nutshell is to gauge daily/weekly momentum and consider the squeeze potential that may feed continuation of the ongoing trend. In this case my verdict was to ‘let her run’ as they say. Currency markets move quite different from equities – so do futures by the way. Once a trend gets going it truly is your best friend.

2014-08-25_NQ_briefing

Similar example here on the NQ – it’s pushing 5R and I simply keep my stop a healthy distance away. In this case I’m using the NLSL at 4032.75 – which would cost me over an R in profits but once again I am unable to determine when we’ll see a correction. Given the fact that we had eight consecutive higher highs the odds are now ridiculously high (i.e. in the 98 percentile) that we’ll put in a red candle or two. If we do I would like to ride it out – hence my stop – low enough to sit out an obligatory correction but near enough to get me out if it turns into a sharp correction. Again, there is no crystal ball and it only will be clear in hindsight.

2014-08-25_spoos_profile_briefing

You may wonder why I’m not running to the bank to cash out right here and call it a trade. That reason should be apparent – we are in absolute no-man’s land and there is no context. A lot of folks are going to try to pick a top here and that’s exactly why I give this trend fair odds of continuation. If I was in cash up here I would wait things out as well – there is no reason for me to short this tape right now. Similarly I simply hold my longs and advance my stops as needed and per my best objective judgment. Whatever happens – I’ll be happily banking coin as it is – given that I am representative of strong hands who got their entry early (either due to skill or sheer luck) and aren’t really worried about missing an R or two.

Anyway, if you’re watching this campaign from the sidelines don’t spend your energy kicking yourself for having missed out. Instead take it as a learning experience for the next time when you manage to get a good entry and the tape starts moving aggressively (in your favor). Being able to simply sit and do nothing is half the battle.

A now to a few short term setups for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Monday Setups
    2. Better Triptych Than Cryptic
    3. So Far So Good
    4. Forex Plays
    5. Long Term Perspectives
    6. How To Let Your Winners Run
    7. Double Whammy
    8. Let ‘Er Run
    9. Irrational Escalation
    10. Squeeze-A-Licious




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick