Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-09-30_spoos_briefing

Quiet morning but we have a good ST entry on the equities side – I’m currently long above the 100-hr SMA with a stop below the 25-hr. The former is just about to swing higher and unless the spoos lose ground here the 25 may just drive it higher. It’s becoming do or die time for the bulls – the recent whipsaw increases the chances for continuation lower.

Which also means that I’d be grabbing a short position (1/2 R) if stopped out. Rationalization is that it’s either a fake out lower or it really falls off the plate, in which case even 1/2R would pay off nicely.

I’ve got a nice futures setup waiting below the fold – please join me in the lair:


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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Spot On

You guys have to give me a tiny bit of credit today – after slaving away 20 hours plus last weekend and barely being awake I somehow managed to pick the lows of the day in the morning. Alright, technically I was off by 1/2 handle – I hope you accept my apologies then:

2014-09-29_spoos_update

It’s all in the wrist folks – and a bit of dark magic of course. The bad news however is that the bulls may not be out of the woodworks here just yet. A rather aggressive bounce this morning but that may be just EOM painting – recall that tomorrow is September’s last trading session. Oy vey – I can already here the Christmas commercials – the horror! Yes, that’s right – you’re getting old.

I would not wager making any conclusive call down here – we’ve held some reasonable support and if you bought there then by all means hold your positions for now. But unless we close positive or almost positive today this may lead lower on Wednesday.

2014-09-29_Zero

The chart of the day for me is the Zero – excellent Mole signals and if I wasn’t so damn tired I’d put up a video. But I’m pretty sure most of you guys would prefer me finishing Thor, right? Which after a Sunday snag has since progressed very nicely and I should be able to put up an early alpha sometime tomorrow. Cross your fingers.

UPDATE 4:30pm EDT - see above the updated chart.

2014-09-29_USDTRY_update

Our USD/TRY campaign is nearing its end as I banked 50% profits at the 4R mark – if it wasn’t trending so massively I would have closed it out altogether. But I’ve had an excellent month and that permits me a bit of discretion. However when I say discretion it means putting a stop below the 3R mark – so I’m not exactly playing dare devil. This was an awesome campaign and sadly I don’t think that many of you guys tagged along – at least judging by what I’m seeing in the comment section.

2014-09-29_EURUSD_LT

Since it’s the EOM I’m planning to do a long term update tomorrow – I think given where we are waiting another session is probably wise. On the Forex side the USD and the EUR are heading into respective inflection points – I wanted to post the EUR/USD early as it’s going on ‘bounce watch’ now. The weekly and monthly will put up some support here and odds are that the easy ride is over the Euro bears. It’s been a fun quarter for this expat as I’ve seen the EUR/USD go from almost 1.4 to nearly 1.27. That’s 13 cents I’m saving per Euro spent – quite significant and I’m able to afford an extra slice of bacon per week.

Two more setups below for my intrepid subs – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it for today – see you guys tomorrow!

Cheers,

Which Way Do You Bend Sir?

Not sure how many of you ever visited a tailor – chances are most of you American rats are picking it off the rack (don’t kill the messenger – I have seen you guys dress). I for one swear by a good tailor and it seems the next time I pay him a visit he’ll probably not just ask me which way I dress but which way my new iPhone bends. Ridiculous! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: NEVER ever under Steve Jobs. He’s literally spinning in his grave right now.

2014-09-25_spoos_volume_profile

Alright – so, who saw this one coming? Exactly. As you know I’ve been posting charts here daily for the last six years plus – well over 3000 posts altogether (time flies when you’re having fun). In all those years I’ve always kept it real and when I don’t know something or don’t have an opinion I’m brutally honest about it.

So yesterday I looked at that spike higher and suddenly there was this thought popping in my mind: could this be a repeat of what we saw in July? I swear – but I didn’t post it as that spike higher looked so massive. I don’t really mind missing out on a big move – you guys know how I roll. But I damn well hate it when I don’t listen to my (paranoid) instincts – so mea culpa for letting this one slip through my mind.

2014-09-25_VIX_update

Massive explosion in volatility – a 30% drop in four sessions is going to leave a mark. Well, look at the bright side – if you were long calls here then you actually may be near break even ;-)

2014-09-25_UVOL_DVOL

Alright seriously now – this was completely engineered. I briefly glanced at the site that shall not be named and saw a headline suggesting a dozen reasons for today’s drop off the plate. Hey, I give you one: Because they could. Look at the NYSE volume signal – it’s as smooth as she comes – this suggests an engineered sell off session and all the bots jumped on the bandwagon. Tough to see coming though.

2014-09-25_SPX_update

Alright – the cash shows us support near 1954 on the daily and there’s a weekly NLSL at 1958. Odds are we’re going to see a little bounce nearby. But in order for that to happen we have to see a slowdown in the downside momo. Given that this has been bot and not panic driven I think that scenario looks pretty plausible right now.

2014-09-25_2035

By the way – no divergences on the VXV:VIX ratio side (yet) – also, as you can see this thing came out of nowhere. Damn it – why didn’t they send me that memo? ;-)

2014-09-25_Dollar_update

Update from the Dollar front – it’s now kissing a pretty significant diagonal resistance line near 86. It’s been a good run but I’m heading to the ATM a few times this weekend as I would expect at least an obligatory correction here. BTW, if it pushes higher and above 86 then we may see the EUR/USD at 1.2 this year. I may be able to afford a turkey this Christmas!

2014-09-25_USDTRY_update

Speaking of which – the turks are treating us well as the USD/TRY has pushed above the 2R yard line – in one single session! Awesome and it more than makes up for my NQ debacle this morning. You know the drill – move your stop to the 1R mark.

Alright – I’m having dinner and then it’s back to coding. I have a deliverable for next week and as you guys are apparently excited I’ll push extra hard and labor all weekend to get Thor into beta by early next week. Wish me luck.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

iphone_18720_futurama_bender_smoking_cigar





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    1. A couple of long term setups
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