Drop The Baseline

Having been on the road until Tuesday I just realized that we’re heading into a long weekend. I suspect most of you are already on the way out or won’t catch this before Sunday night. So let’s dive right in:

The VIX Buy signal we triggered on Tuesday seems to be proceeding nicely. Worth noting is the fact that we have rapidly descended back toward a baseline near VIX 13.5 which only recently was breached. That’s quite a volatility squeeze and if you were caught with puts (and even calls) near the bottom and didn’t get out then your premiums aren’t worth jack at this point.

On the spoos we are heading toward a NLBL which represents our first technical hurdle. Nothing else to see here…

Our GBP/JPY correlation seems to be supportive – it’s served us well again this week.

My YM entry this morning has paid off very handsomely and I’m taking it off the table now as we’re touching a NLBL on the daily panel. Good chance for a little shake out here.

I know it’s a long weekend and all but I actually ran into some very nice setups. Please join me in the lair:


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Per today’s theme I’m kicking off your Easter weekend in style by dropping a real bassline:

And another one – as it’s a three day weekend – wohoo!

Make sure no pets or younglings are nearby then grab a cold one and crank these suckers up. Wishing you all a fabulous weekend – see you guys next Monday!

Cheers,

Back In The Thick Of It

Things are starting to look more positive as we are accumulating bullish context. As you recall the VIX triggered a bonafide buy signal (relative to equities) and thus far things are proceeding in the right direction. That of course doesn’t mean we won’t see an attempt to shake out some of the stragglers.

On our volume profile chart we are back in the thick of it – anything can happen around here and it has in recent past. But if nothing else the bears once again were unable to drag things beyond the point of no return, one which may have heralded a medium term trend change. So no cookies for the teddies and the bulls have another lease at life – at least for now.

The GBP/JPY correlation continues to provide important clues and thus far it seems to be leading higher.

Short term (left panel) we are holding the 25-hour SMA and may just breach that NLBL just below ES 1850. Not much context on the daily chart, so for now let’s stick with the hourly. As long as the 25-h is leading higher we are in squeeze mode. Won’t last forever though and various strategies for a shake out are probably already being hatched. If you are long from Monday then there’s not much for you to do – don’t over think this – hold your position and move your stop up with each 1R increment. It’s important that you let your winners run.

Thanks again to Scott for providing valuable guidance during my days off. It was short and sweet and very much to the point. That’s how I like it. Complicated charts and pages of rationalizations are for traders with too much time on their hands.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Return Of The Market Mole

Alright guys – it’s very late over here and I haven’t even unpacked – plus I just realized that I left my iPad on the train and as you can imagine I have a few passwords to change. So here’s the skinny:

After giving everyone the run around for the past week the tape started to run like a hare in the previous two sessions. Very very difficult to get a lock on things and I’m sure a ton of people got trapped into bad positions here. If you had any sort of directional opinion you are feeling the pain right now. So let’s talk facts – the E-Mini is on top of the 100-hour and 100-day SMAs right now. That’s slightly bullish but given the recent gyrations it’s still a far cry from being out of the woods for the bulls.

Interestingly however we just completed a bonafide VIX buy signal – which for the noobs I always have to qualify is relative to equities. It’s another ace for the long side but let’s see if we get follow through in the remainder of the week. We may meander around a bit more trapping more retail rats before this thing decides on where to move next.

For the record – it’s been a brutal spring for everyone so far. Although we have dropped a bit lower today’s push above meaningful resistance puts us back into the churn zone and that means we may see more of the high volatility sideways madness we all love to hate.

Now excuse me while I go kick a tree…

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
  1. recent misdeeds

    1. Drop The Baseline
    2. Lazy Thursday Morning Briefing
    3. Back In The Thick Of It
    4. The Squeeze Is On!
    5. Return Of The Market Mole
    6. We have a potential long setup here, but it sucks
    7. Start of the week
    8. Scott’s market update
    9. TARDIS Trading Techniques
    10. Thursday Morning Briefing
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