Elvis Has Left The Building

One of the prime directives I preach here on an ongoing basis (soap box included) is that we as traders must, by all means and without hesitation, yield the iron when it’s hot. Despite the emergence of financial media, trading blogs like this one, social networking, FB, twitter, etc. the daily grind of being a trader is really not that exciting. Unless you are completely nuts and addicted to a daily dose of adrenalin (which means that you are day trader) 90% of the time you wind up sitting around waiting for the moment to happen.

2014-10-21_spoos_briefing

And when it finally does you strike without hesitation because you know that just for a moment the odds may be in your favor. The market has shown you a door and odds are it’s about to step through it. There are no guarantees and there never will be. But that is beside the point – you are a trader and this is what you do. Take action when the odds are shifted in your favor. And then you wait agin.

The orange arrow on the chart above shows you exactly that very moment yesterday near the open. That was one sweet entry and any self respecting steel rat should have at least grabbed a handful of contracts there. What happened instead was an ear shattering silence and tumble weeds rolling through the comment section. Maybe I should have put Ebola Alert in the subject line. As the old saying goes – you snooze you lose…

2014-10-21_spoos_LT_briefing

And still I concede that this may turn into one fat bull trap – yes, nothing is baked in. But to me it doesn’t matter because I got positioned near the lows when the odds were in my favor. If I wind up getting stopped out – that’s the cost of doing business.

The monthly panel now shows us in earshot of the NLSL we breached over a week ago. IF that really happens then the bears will be on record for having fumbled the best shorting opportunity in years. And you know what I’m going to say next – exactly: There will be a price to pay. Until that happens there is a short opportunity right below the monthly NLSL – but in order for this entry to be considered we would have to see some considerable weakness here today and tomorrow. What I’m seeing in the futures right now is not encouraging for the bears.

Leftthebuilding

No ST setups this morning – Elvis has left the building and the time to get positioned was yesterday. For now we watch and wait…

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Mad Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-10-20_spoos_briefing

Put your game faces on folks, judging by this morning’s activity it looks like we’re going to have a busy week. Equites are now near the make or break point. Short term this is an awesome opportunity to be long with very little risk. Simply put your stop below the 100-hour SMA. If we drop through it we may bounce back bear trap style but the bullish case would be extremely vulnerable. We don’t have a crystal ball but the odds are good here. Even worth being stopped out once or twice – so keep your position size small and build it it up as you go.

In case you wonder – yes, being short below the 100-hour is encouraged if we drop below it. But there will be attempts to reconquer it and unless your stop is above 1890 odds are you will be swept. No exact science – it depends on your trading style. But this is a major inflection point that will determine the direction for the coming weeks.

2014-10-20_NQ_briefing

Similar view on the NQ but not as dynamic – the 100-hour is now pushing sideways which means it can serve as the line of scrimmage to kick this thing higher. If it fails the bulls will find themselves in a world of hurt.

2014-10-20_EURUSD_briefing

Oh how much I wish this setup would fail but much to my chagrin it’s looking very very good. So I’m long here with a stop below the now rising 100-hour.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – secret decoder ring required:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Falling Swords

The best advice I can offer you guys right now is to not resort to guesswork when it comes to when we’ll see a low. We are sailing in dangerous waters and if you’re not already short then simply wait it out – get used to the idea that you missed the boat. Anything can happen down here and it will!

2014-10-15_1412

Most importantly don’t fall prey to mental masturbation such as this. So it’s Ebola that’s bringing down the market now? Is that a fact? It couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the fact that the Fed’s money pump is slowly drying up? Or that we’ve been in a raging bull market for five years and counting which is begging for a correction?

It’s strange how the financial media continues to draw correlations between events and market cycles, even if they are disproven over and over again. And even IF those events were the actual cause – it’s useless to follow them as there is no chance of exploiting the information. How many people went long crude thinking that Russian supply disruptions in Europe would swing prices higher? And how exactly has that been working out for you?

Forget about the news – just follow the charts – they tell us all we need to know.

2014-10-15_sppos_briefing

Or NOT. If you recall my write up on market periods – we are in the midst of a rocket right now and there’s no telling when it’ll end. The wave wankers have tried over and over to employ all kinds of measures to project when a ‘third wave’ may end. The last time I tried that was in early 2009 when everyone was looking far below 666 based on their careful counts.

2014-10-15_spoos_volume_profile

The simple truth is that you’ll never know until after the fact – so stop trying to guess. Don’t think you are smarter than the millions of participants who are looking at the very same chart right now. We may bounce here today and hold the 25-week BB, or we could drop like a rock here and not stop until near 1700. I don’t know – but one think I do know for sure:

Never ever attempt to step underneath a falling sword.

2014-10-15_VIX_VXO

The one chart that’s been a thorn in my eye is this one – the VIX:VXO. It keeps pointing up and I really don’t know why. But we are in rough waters as I said and perhaps whoever is pricing those ATM options is tripping over their own hubris. Or they know something I don’t. Whatever it is – when things don’t make sense then you simply wait it out. We’ve done well this year – no sense in getting caught up in all the excitement (i.e. panic) and resort to forcing the issue. That rarely results in profitable trades.

2014-10-15_gold_briefing

Gold is looking pretty interesting right now as it’s fighting to overcome triple resistance. My current entry is betting that it’s going to fail but a few ticks higher above 1230 I’ll be long. Dynamics can shift quickly here and this is an important inflection point – which makes for good entries.

A few more ST charts below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Elvis Has Left The Building
    2. Mad Monday Morning Briefing
    3. I Robot
    4. FEAR
    5. Falling Swords
    6. The End Of The Beginning
    7. Not Business As Usual
    8. Time For A Breather
    9. Prepare to be confused
    10. Major Technical Damage




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick