Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The NQ inside day triggered this morning and if you set your alerts then you ought to be in a long trade right now with a stop below yesterday’s low. The odds here are still mixed – let’s see if it takes off.

Gold got stopped out at 1R this morning. It sucks IMO because I have an inkling it’ll really go gangbusters after shaking out some of us retail monkeys. But the rules are the rules, sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse.

Not much else going on this morning on the futures side – I did however find a few good entries over in Forex:


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Cheers,

Bounce It!

Equities seem to be hooked onto Juicy J’s recording studio as they’re on their way to winning his much publicized twerking scholarship (cough it back up Ms. Holmes!). Now we’re back at the bottom of ‘ze zone’ and whether we’re bouncing back up now is of course the big question as there’s not too much in terms of technical context.

As a matter of fact all we really have right now is our trusted volume profile chart on the spoos:

As usual a spike into the no fly zone after which point the bids dried up quickly. Basically we’ve now built our house of pain with the floor being near 1830 and the roof somewhere around 1880 – 50 handles of market maker bliss.

If you haven’t lost your appetite for equities then that IP candle on the NQ may look tasty. Triggers on the chart – not a bad range and I may throw 1/2R on it.

I tried to get in early this morning but got whipsawed out. That hourly NLBL would have been a great catch per our plan but it didn’t work out for me.

Gold update – I actually realized that I committed an operator error. Technically I should have closed out on Friday as it had touched 1R and then pulled back. Well, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than to be good – I’m staying in it and will move my stop to 1306 – 1R locked in.

NG – almost touched the 1R mark today and here we also will keep her running.

Wheat – a setup this morning which I also tried to get in but then got stopped out. Afterward I was heading to the gym and I missed the spike higher. BUT this is a textbook example of an inverse H&S as that little head fake is very very typical. The perfect entry IMO would have been that little IP near today’s bottom. If you caught it then call yourself one lucky bastard (probably not – if so speak up and reel in your glory). Anyway, good chart – keep it around as a great example of H&S formations. They are not easy to trade despite their popularity.

AUD/USD update – 1.5R in one day – that’s how we like it. Move your stop to 0.9339 – you’ve locked in one R.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

The Blood Letting

Looks like this move caught a lot of folks by surprise as I don’t see the bears doing their occasional victory dance either. Not that they wouldn’t deserve one after all those years of pain. Which goes to show that high volatility tape without technical context can be detrimental to your account. It also shows that moves to the downside can be quite a bit faster than those to the upside. However if they move fast they usually flame out equally quickly. So let’s see where we are:

The volume profile chart shows us near the bottom of the high volume range we’ve been bouncing around in since early February. As you can gather participation drops off quickly after around 1830.

There’s not much in terms of technical support there and even the 100-day SMA on the E-Mini is looking a bit iffy. It’s been a while since it has been tested, so let’s look what else we got.

1844 came and went already since I took this snapshot. Which is why I called the 100-hour BB soft support. In strongly trending tape like this you cannot rely on upper/lower Bollingers. There need to be more in place to justify a counter directional play.

The weekly has us in mid-air until about 1817 and if things don’t slow down here near the close then it’s possible we’ll pay it a courtesy visit.

Gold campaign update – not elated about today’s drop lower but it is what it is. As we’re painting an IP we’ll move our stop to the lower trigger. You can add a contract if we run back up and breach today’s highs. May be a LKGB – we shall see…

Natgas – that one we took this morning (sub setup from Friday) and it’s looking good! Already breached a NLBL and that’s a definite plus. But don’t get too comfortable yet – Mrs. Natgas is a cruel mistress and we are not in the clear just yet.

ZB update – that also was a sub entry from this morning actually. It triggered like textbook at the NLBL and hasn’t looked back. I’m now looking for a spike low so I can advance my stop. Also a positive is the NLBL breach on the daily panel, so if all goes well we may turn this into a daily campaign. But I would keep the trending campaign management via the spike lows.

And another update – this time on the CAD/CHF. Here we were kicking butt and taking numbers but today we dropped back half of what we earned on Friday. Bugger – we’ll be closing this one out today as we have breached 2R and will probably close below it. So ignore what I typed on the chart – I got it wrong. Today’s long trigger on the IP is however valid – and so is the short trigger of course.

Two more goodies below for my intrepid subs:


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Happy hunting but keep it frosty!

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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