Setup Bonanza!

Interesting turn of events this morning – although my growing cautiousness concerning the equities (long) side has thus far paid off I’m not yet convinced that we’re heading into another correction. Be this as it may, I did get positioned nicely courtesy of the TF this morning and I intend to hold this position for now or until stopped out at break/even:

Although there was a quick fake out toward the NLBL my stop was well placed and thus far I’ve racked up almost two R. Which is nice but not really what I’m interested in – I’m turning this into a lottery ticket to the downside given what I’m seeing on the short term momo side:

VIX:VXO (which I showed to the subs yesterday) continues to point downward. Again, it could be a fluke or a bear trap but I already earned my entry and I’m sitting pretty right now.

Out of fairness I should however show you guys the Zero Lite which is rather flat today. So not much participation on the downside here and I give this 40% chance to continue lower. I don’t see a long entry here right now either unfortunately – once I do I’ll let you guys know.

Update on the Dollar entry which I hope some of you guys grabbed yesterday. The right panel shows us at the 2R threshold and that means we are either moving our stop up if we close above it or close our position if we close below it. That is via the CrazyIvan campaign rules. If I would employ Heisenberg then I would have taken partial profits a bit above 1R and moved my stop to b/e. So I leave this in your capable hands – it’s possible that the Dollar is going to enjoy a run higher. But heck – it’s the Dollar right? So I’ll stick with CI rules on this one ;-)

So many awesome setups today – here’s crude gracing us with a very interesting configuration I tried to explain on the chart. Could swing either way and we are near the $100 mark – will definitely take whatever trigger this throws at me.

And I cannot believe I’m actually giving this one away for free as it’s my favorite. I have already gone long via this morning’s short term entry near 104. My stop is at today’s lows and all that ties very nicely into the IP and RTV-L that any of you leeches may grab later tonight. Absolutely love this setup and I think it’s coiled up and ready to snap.

More goodies below the fold – it’s a veritable futures bonanza today – seems Hoss is getting all excited. Please grab your secret decoder rings and join me in my freshly painted spring lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Inflection Point

The Russell futures have descended lower into the first support zone on our map. Here’s where the tape of the coming weeks will be decided – meaning whether we bounce and continue on our merry way higher or if we are to see a meaningful correction. The implications of a breach here would be serious in particular given the price objective on our SPX point and figure chart.

As you can see the daily is already touching its 100-day SMA and we are but a few ticks away from visiting our weekly NLSL (closely followed by the 25-week SMA). The latter has been acting as support for months now and quite obviously the bulls do not want to give that one up. Otherwise I do not have much to add on the equities front – as I said this morning, the onus is now on the bears to initiate a medium term trend change. If it was Monday or Tuesday I may consider a speculative long position here – and as you recall I was still short:

My open campaign did already reach its 1R point today and per the rules I will close out EOD unless we drop below 1143.5 again. I am tempted to change campaign management to a more trending approach but the odds of continuation lower here are limited right now plus the weekend is at our doorsteps.

Our Zero indicator also doesn’t show us anything worth writing home about. Almost a complete flatline, so participation down here is practically inexistent.

Bonds – the subs and I went long the bonds this morning. The ZN got shaken out but the ZB stuck just nicely. I’m actually going to hold this one given the daily context:

That was a nice and surprising breach and I think I’m going to play this via my trending campaign management, meaning I will advance my stop to every following spike low. Let’s see where she takes us.

GBP/CHF – knocking on upside resistance and I would be very interested in a long breach here – trigger on the chart. The weekly context is rather interesting given the entangled 100/25-week SMAs. If we push above today’s highs then we should be good until that weekly NLBL.

Have fun but keep it frosty!

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Updated CrazyIvan Results

It’s been a wild week for me – not just in the markets but also in real life as the Las Fallas celebrations here in Valencia ended just two days ago and I’m still catching up on sleep. It also doesn’t help that you yanks already switched to daylight saving time and thus everything is getting pulled forward an hour for me. Sounds like a minor inconvenience but when you have a routine going changing it during a noisy week doesn’t help matters. Oh yeah – and on top of all we have houseguests who want to be entertained. So quite frankly I’m very much looking forward to kicking my feet up and doing abso-diddly-nothing this weekend.

CrazyIvan has been kicking butt and taking numbers this month and I thought I’d share the updated stats. We started the month with around 28R in the plus for 2014 and it managed to work its way up all the way to 45R thus far.

Here are the updated 2014 stats – it’s looking pretty good and we are actually way ahead of expectations. This is based on trading six symbols (four FX and two futures symbols) on the 480 which have produced a total of 45R. Assuming compounding and the recommended 1% position sizes this means that our subs should have added near 50% to their trading accounts – and we are only 1/4 into the year. CrazyIvan very much likes volatility and given the tape of the past few weeks I have an inkling we are going to see quite a bit more of that.

If you are interested in giving CrazyIvan a shot then I suggest you work yourself through the intro/tutorial as well as the order flow page. The live results are available here – meaning the spreadsheet (top of that page) is being updated each single completed trade – I update the charts about once a week. If you still have questions after all that then feel free to shoot me an email to admin@.

Quick update on my TF campaign – as you may recall I did mention that the bulls weren’t out of the woods yet this morning and apparently my suspicions were right on the money. That’s quite a reversal and it increases the odds for yet another leg to the downside. Obviously we have equity/ETF/ETN options plus cash settled currency options expiring today, which may account for some monkey business.

The Zero shows us a total flatline in the beginning of the session and that alone gave me the willies knowing that the tape can change direction at the drop of a pin when that happens. We’re seeing a bit more of a signal now (nice Mole reversal signal as well) but wouldn’t want to guess where we wind up today.

So my ‘cunning plan’ (any Black Adder fans here?) will be to wait for the close and then adjust my initial stop based on the close. IF we produce some sort of shooting star (I know I said hammer on the chart and apparently it fell on my foot) then I will propagate my stop up to today’s low. That would also be my short trigger starting Sunday night – unless of course we gap in which case I wouldn’t want to chase it.

Before I go I have the sad duty to wish our resident Gold Gerb all the best and at least a temporary goodbye as he has decided to hibernate for a while. Seems like he has finally managed to bankrupt his employer as 40% of his colleagues have been laid off and the silly gerb now winds up making up the slack. Well, at least you still got a job buddy – use the remaining time to polish up your resume! After over four years of daily participation it will be tough to see him gone and we can only hope he’ll fall on his grubby little feet. Farewell Gold Gerb! (Mole wipes a crocodile tear).

Well, that’s as good as any reason for me to crack open a cold one and call it a day. I’ll be back come Monday morning bright eyed and bushy tailed. Wishing you all you Slopers a relaxing early spring weekend.


It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


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