STFO Wednesday Morning Briefing

Yes, it’s that time of the quarter again – today we will be graced with another FOMC interest rate decision and as usual we should expect a lot of snooze followed by wild gyrations around 2:00pm EST. By the way FOMC stands for Federal Market Oracle Commission, they just swapped two of the letters.

Imagine a group of  financial high priests in silly costumes locked into a room without food, water, ventilation, or a toilet for two days meditating on how to best to destroy our currency. Which explains a lot of what has transpired over the past two decades. Anyway, whatever happens today – for me this is a ‘stay the fuck out’ day. I won’t touch anything with a ten foot pole until after the announcement.

Unfortunately the spoos have dropped overnight – if you partook in yesterday’s jump higher then you have been robbed of a valuable profit buffer. Obviously it would have been more helpful if we had stayed near the 100-hour overnight. I don’t enjoy exposing myself to wild swings without having some profits under my belly. If we drop from here then it’ll be fast slicing through all support clusters – same on the long side of course.

If you are long I suggest you leave your ISL in place – but there is a good chance it’ll be taken to the woodshed during whatever swings we may see around 2:00pm. Alternatively you can lower it and also reduce position sizes. Whichever way this resolves – we may see a stab in the opposite direction first – you know how the game is played by now.

Bottom Line: Every quarter we have to endure this ritual and in most cases unfortunately only the boyz on the inside get to be positioned in the right direction. It sucks but it is what it is. Remember, we cannot worry about things we have little control over. So if you are playing either direction today then do it with a 1/4R position size and expect to get ridiculous fills if you get stop-run. This way if you happen to sit right you still bank coin and if you are on the wrong horse you won’t lose more than 1R.

Good luck! ;-)

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

 

Nothingburger

This day is basically a complete nothingburger. You just know it’s gonna suck and thus far it has done its best to live up to our vastly lowered expectations. Forget about equities right now folks – the cash indices all look like crap and I don’t trust the index futures, especially ahead of the interest rate decision.

If you absolutely must dabble in equities today then reduce your position size to a maximum of 1/2R – better less. You’ll thank me later and perhaps you won’t wind up pawning your grandma’s wedding ring to afford that Christmas turkey.

UPDATE - Fed going to taper by $5 Billion a month (not willing to lose all credibility it seems) and we’re already seeing wild swings all over the place. Don’t chase this thing!

I had a beautiful silver and EUR/USD setup waiting for you but both got taken to the woodshed just now. So let’s call it a day and I’ll be back in the morning. Sorry for being able to offer anything of substance but this is a textbook ‘sitting on your hands’ day. Better luck tomorrow.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Stay Out Of Minefields

The EUR/USD just fell off the plate after the ECB’s surprise decision to cut interest rates by 25 bps. Equities jumped higher across the board and our hammer long on the daily spoos is looking pretty good right now. But obviously that may instantly change around 8:30 when we’ll get the U.S. GDP numbers:

That ought to be good for a few wild gyrations.  I don’t see any benefit in taking on short term positions in this minefield, so let’s just sit this one out. Sometimes the best thing you can do is to absolutely nothing.

UPDATE 8:47am EST: The EUR/USD is touching daily and weekly support:

Now I’m not suggesting to step under a falling sword. Let’s watch this for a little and see if she sticks. Perhaps watch the hourly for a buy signal in case a little bounce materializes.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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