Are The Wheels Back On?

Massive reversal today and frankly quite a bit more forceful than I had anticipated. So it seems the Mole got played on this one. I had it right on target regarding the bounce - our P&F pointed at SPX 1920 as its bearish price objective and our monthly NLSL sits at 1930. The SPX dropped right in between those two and our current low stands at 1926 and change. From there a bounce was to be expected but today’s rip higher is rather bullish and we could see continuation higher here.

2014-10-03_PNF_SPX

I posted this chart for my subs in yesterday’s long term update – the area I had highlighted in green was 1960, which is where I expected a low pole reversal warning to kick in. And that’s exactly what happened today – the odds were preeeettty tiny for this to happen. And it certainly took a few market participants by surprise. Fortunately I had no dog in this fight (except for the Thor campaign – see below) and thus escaped this little trap unscathed.

2014-10-03_spoos_update

If you are a bear this is a very ugly chart. Only a drop back below the ES 1960 mark (and better below the SPX 1960 mark) gives the bears another shot at some autumn fun. Not saying it won’t happen but it has to happen soon and in addition the tape must not breach back above the 25-day SMA.

2014-10-03_spoos_weekly

The weekly panel actually had triggered a double sell signal yesterday and a close below it would have locked in a major blemish for the bulls as this would have been our first official medium term sell signal. But both were reversed today and this is a big kick in the nuts for the bears.

2014-10-03_UVOL

As you can see on our NYSE UVOL signal – since the lows this has been one concerted short squeeze. It would be a mistake to cling to yesterday’s picture and not consider that the bulls can drive this higher. Yes, it could be one last spike higher but we get to that…

2014-10-03_VIX_update

More bullish ammunition – the VIX is most likely going to complete a bonafide equities buy signal. And potentially plenty of space below…

2014-10-03_zero

Now to the bearish evidence, which is why I don’t count them out completely just yet. The Zero signal is completely flat and this supports the previous chart in that this drive higher does not enjoy wide participation and could just be a bot driven squeeze which may fizzle out next week.

2014-10-03_spoos_GBPJPY

I am not seeing any confirmation at all on our old Forex correlation pairs – neither on cable…

2014-10-03_spoos_EURJPY

..nor on  the EUR/JPY. This is highly suspicious but the Dollar has been pushing hard today (who-hoo!) and this correlation has weakened somewhat recently.

Bottom line:  The bears are now officially on notice across the board and the onus is now on the bulls to drive this higher. Should the bulls fail to do so then the jig is up and the wheels will come off next week. However, simply holding SPX 1960 for a session or two will send any remaining grizzlies back to the sidelines – old habits die hard and the bulls still enjoy home turf advantage. Until proven otherwise they are effectively back behind the wheel. Inflection point: ES 1960 – below it the bears stand a chance – above it the bulls will probably bury them once again.

2014-10-03_cable

First up apologies for not deploying Thor earlier this week. I kept running into little things to fix – you know how it goes but it will be ready for Sunday night and (barring any major problem) that’s a promise. Here’s the GBP/USD which currently has earned us ~1R.

2014-10-03_ES_Thor

The ES bounce still left us with 1.25R as Thor took 50% off our units off the top near the lows.

2014-10-03_Thor_gold

Gold also in good shape and our stop is now at break-even. Let’s see if we see continuation lower – this is a great start.

One setup below for my intrepid subs – sorry, all I could dig up today but it’s a good one:


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Alright, I think I’ve done enough damage this week – see you guys on Monday morning.

060112Bierhaus1wf

Prost!

Spot On

You guys have to give me a tiny bit of credit today – after slaving away 20 hours plus last weekend and barely being awake I somehow managed to pick the lows of the day in the morning. Alright, technically I was off by 1/2 handle – I hope you accept my apologies then:

2014-09-29_spoos_update

It’s all in the wrist folks – and a bit of dark magic of course. The bad news however is that the bulls may not be out of the woodworks here just yet. A rather aggressive bounce this morning but that may be just EOM painting – recall that tomorrow is September’s last trading session. Oy vey – I can already here the Christmas commercials – the horror! Yes, that’s right – you’re getting old.

I would not wager making any conclusive call down here – we’ve held some reasonable support and if you bought there then by all means hold your positions for now. But unless we close positive or almost positive today this may lead lower on Wednesday.

2014-09-29_Zero

The chart of the day for me is the Zero – excellent Mole signals and if I wasn’t so damn tired I’d put up a video. But I’m pretty sure most of you guys would prefer me finishing Thor, right? Which after a Sunday snag has since progressed very nicely and I should be able to put up an early alpha sometime tomorrow. Cross your fingers.

UPDATE 4:30pm EDT - see above the updated chart.

2014-09-29_USDTRY_update

Our USD/TRY campaign is nearing its end as I banked 50% profits at the 4R mark – if it wasn’t trending so massively I would have closed it out altogether. But I’ve had an excellent month and that permits me a bit of discretion. However when I say discretion it means putting a stop below the 3R mark – so I’m not exactly playing dare devil. This was an awesome campaign and sadly I don’t think that many of you guys tagged along – at least judging by what I’m seeing in the comment section.

2014-09-29_EURUSD_LT

Since it’s the EOM I’m planning to do a long term update tomorrow – I think given where we are waiting another session is probably wise. On the Forex side the USD and the EUR are heading into respective inflection points – I wanted to post the EUR/USD early as it’s going on ‘bounce watch’ now. The weekly and monthly will put up some support here and odds are that the easy ride is over the Euro bears. It’s been a fun quarter for this expat as I’ve seen the EUR/USD go from almost 1.4 to nearly 1.27. That’s 13 cents I’m saving per Euro spent – quite significant and I’m able to afford an extra slice of bacon per week.

Two more setups below for my intrepid subs – please join me in the lair:


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That’s it for today – see you guys tomorrow!

Cheers,

Which Way Do You Bend Sir?

Not sure how many of you ever visited a tailor – chances are most of you American rats are picking it off the rack (don’t kill the messenger – I have seen you guys dress). I for one swear by a good tailor and it seems the next time I pay him a visit he’ll probably not just ask me which way I dress but which way my new iPhone bends. Ridiculous! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: NEVER ever under Steve Jobs. He’s literally spinning in his grave right now.

2014-09-25_spoos_volume_profile

Alright – so, who saw this one coming? Exactly. As you know I’ve been posting charts here daily for the last six years plus – well over 3000 posts altogether (time flies when you’re having fun). In all those years I’ve always kept it real and when I don’t know something or don’t have an opinion I’m brutally honest about it.

So yesterday I looked at that spike higher and suddenly there was this thought popping in my mind: could this be a repeat of what we saw in July? I swear – but I didn’t post it as that spike higher looked so massive. I don’t really mind missing out on a big move – you guys know how I roll. But I damn well hate it when I don’t listen to my (paranoid) instincts – so mea culpa for letting this one slip through my mind.

2014-09-25_VIX_update

Massive explosion in volatility – a 30% drop in four sessions is going to leave a mark. Well, look at the bright side – if you were long calls here then you actually may be near break even ;-)

2014-09-25_UVOL_DVOL

Alright seriously now – this was completely engineered. I briefly glanced at the site that shall not be named and saw a headline suggesting a dozen reasons for today’s drop off the plate. Hey, I give you one: Because they could. Look at the NYSE volume signal – it’s as smooth as she comes – this suggests an engineered sell off session and all the bots jumped on the bandwagon. Tough to see coming though.

2014-09-25_SPX_update

Alright – the cash shows us support near 1954 on the daily and there’s a weekly NLSL at 1958. Odds are we’re going to see a little bounce nearby. But in order for that to happen we have to see a slowdown in the downside momo. Given that this has been bot and not panic driven I think that scenario looks pretty plausible right now.

2014-09-25_2035

By the way – no divergences on the VXV:VIX ratio side (yet) – also, as you can see this thing came out of nowhere. Damn it – why didn’t they send me that memo? ;-)

2014-09-25_Dollar_update

Update from the Dollar front – it’s now kissing a pretty significant diagonal resistance line near 86. It’s been a good run but I’m heading to the ATM a few times this weekend as I would expect at least an obligatory correction here. BTW, if it pushes higher and above 86 then we may see the EUR/USD at 1.2 this year. I may be able to afford a turkey this Christmas!

2014-09-25_USDTRY_update

Speaking of which – the turks are treating us well as the USD/TRY has pushed above the 2R yard line – in one single session! Awesome and it more than makes up for my NQ debacle this morning. You know the drill – move your stop to the 1R mark.

Alright – I’m having dinner and then it’s back to coding. I have a deliverable for next week and as you guys are apparently excited I’ll push extra hard and labor all weekend to get Thor into beta by early next week. Wish me luck.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

iphone_18720_futurama_bender_smoking_cigar





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