Head For The Beach

It’s the height of summer and over here in Spain we are mere days away from the entire country shutting down in August. Yes, I am dead serious. Starting next week it will be impossible for anyone on the Iberian Peninsula to make a doctor’s appointment, get a haircut, fix your car, meet with an attorney, negotiate a contract, etc. Just found some tentacle growing out of your ear? Tough luck José – it’ll have to wait a few weeks. Got hit by a truck riding your moto and you may have severed your spinal cord? Better walk it off tough guy – those x-rays will have to wait until the doctor’s back from the beach.

Anything business or health related will have to wait until September as most offices here simply shut down for a minimum of two weeks, economic crisis be damned. For a born German who spent over 20 years in the United States this is a rather alien concept to wrap one’s mind around. It’s not that the Spaniards lack sufficient holidays during the rest of the year, if you get my drift. So apparently it will once again fall on me, the lowly Mole, to keep the Spanish economy running for the next four weeks as my lair will apparently be the only business open during August. Hey, but I can’t make any promises – it is brutally hot over here and it’s getting hotter by the day. I think I may have to raise subscription fees just to be able to afford the electricity bill as my industrial scale air conditioner is blowing day and night. And did I mention the humidity? It’s not California, that’s for sure.

Alright, and now that I have properly set the mood let’s see where we are this morning. Still bouncing around in the range of pain – the high volatility sideways range persists and entries near the center are veritable coin flips. But the good news is that it gets worse:

This is the event calendar for today and tomorrow and guess what, it’s that time of the month again. Wednesday the Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and also report on its MBS and treasury purchase programs. I don’t expect any type of resolution before tomorrow at 2:00pm EDT and most likely we’ll be seeing sideways flat or gyrating tape in the interim. May actually be a good time to watch the Zero Lite indicator if you happen to be a sub as sideways days like that make for good scalping/swing trading opportunities.

For the rest of you guys I recommend you discover your inner Spaniards and find yourself a nice beach, preferably with bar service. And if there’s no beach nearby you live then find yourself a lake, a cool mountain resort, or if everything else fails head to your favorite coffee shop or watering hole. Bring a book and turn off your laptop/ipad/iphone what have you so you’re not tempted to check the tape. Anything will be better than trading for the next 30 hours. That’s it – see you guys tomorrow!

What – you’re still here? What part of taking the day off wasn’t clear to you? You are an addict, you know that, right? Well, I understand because so am I. Which is why I kept hunting around a bit for short term setups to bridge us over until tomorrow. Very loose correlation to U.S. markets would be good. Here’s the EUR/SEK (swedish krona) which is in a very interesting configuration. I want to be long above 9.185 with a stop below the 25-hour SMA.

And then there’s platinum – may be affected tomorrow at 2:00pm of course. So if you grab this long above 1490.6 then be out and about by 1:30pm tomorrow. Otherwise it looks like a solid long setup after a nice correction. Decent odds and worth 1R on my end if it makes it over my trigger.

Alright, and that’s it for today. UNLESS of course something very exciting/dramatic happens during the session ;-)

 

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Cheers,

No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)

I’m sure you all know what I’m talking about. Here we were trying to short this bitch several times in the past two days which on my end resulted in three ignominious stop outs – the last one at 1982. Only 1.5R lost, so it wasn’t a big deal but pretty much what I told you yesterday ‘would happen’ of course ‘did happen’ the next day. There was no reason for my stop to be at 1986 – it was too far in enemy territory. And then equities got Amazoned and here we are fifteen SPX handles lower. So what do we do now?

I tell you what we’re going to do. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. We did everything in our power to exploit an entry opportunity near an inflection point and we simply didn’t get in. That’s life and unless you were on the inside there was no knowing ahead of time that Bezos would slip on the banana peel last night. Don’t beat yourself up – actually better yet, get used to it. Which is why we don’t take large risks on the equities side – or any correlated market for that matter. 1% is the max and if you’re a stock market junkie then always keep a close eye on being as delta neutral as possible (look it up or ask in the comment section).

Now on the ES futures we’re near 1971 right now and there are no major support zones nearby. ES 1966 looks like the next best line in the sand as the 100-hour BB is lingering around down there.

The S&P cash however has been holding its 100-hour SMA and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if it holds.

But the real news of the day is the one that hasn’t been reported. While everyone else is talking about yesterday’s losers I’ve been taking a long position on the Dollar side (yes, I can’t believe I just said that). This is actually a weekly setup I shared with my subs last night and originally we’ve been expecting ole’ bucky to do the same old thing which is fold like a chair near any major LT resistance. Now I can’t promise/expect that this time it’ll be different but those two NLBL breaches do look promising. The fun may begin if we see a pop aboe 80.993 – so make it 81. That’s where the 25-day SMA sits right now and we’ve got plenty of air looming above.

This is the first time I’ll show the turkish lira here and I have to confess that I haven’t traded this one before. So I’ll ease myself into this one with 1/2R. I however do like the double inside day – and I’ll play the outer one on the stop side. I hope that’s clear as I don’t think my drawing is. Long Sunday on either breach of today’s candle (high or low) – but set your stop on the opposite side of the Thursday candle.

More setups waiting below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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And now it’s time again to kick back and crack open a bottle of your favorite alcoholic beverage. As you all know in my case that of course would be a bottle of Hefeweizen. A simple Paulaner is one of my favorites – it’s smooth but has that typical Bavarian disciplined but hefty flavor. Simple pleasures…. Well, I hope to see you all next week :-)

Prost!

Is It Summer Already?

Temperatures over here in Spain are slowly crawling higher and the locals are busy preparing for the annual onslaught of UV deprived Northern Europeans (and a few Americans as well). Down here at the lair air massive air conditioning units are running in overdrive as my charting/reasoning abilities degrade inversely with every degree Celsius higher on the scale. There has been very little activity here yesterday and the tape did its best to keep everyone bothering to pay attention bored to tears.

However when the bus is empty it often winds up picking up speed. Although I’m getting concerned on a medium to long term basis equity futures are looking solid here on a short term. If you are ever looking for a textbook example of a clean diagonal with nicely separated touch points then look no further than the E-Mini futures today. If I don’t wind up heading to the beach or gym then I will probably grab a long position if we retest that diagonal.

What I like about it in particular is that the 25-hour is merging with it right now and that gives us dual support. Put your stop a handle below and don’t play more than 1/2R – if it pops it’ll be worth the hassle. However if we wind up gyrating sideways again don’t waste your time – you’ll probably get a pretty good idea of where we’re heading in the first hour of the NYSE session. If in doubt consult the Zero indicator, which by the way was flatlining most of yesterday.

The NQ dons a similar pattern and although I would follow the ES it may be worthwhile to split your 1/2R between those two. It’s always good to see those two get into alignment when things are looking bullish.

EUR/USD – I’m going to play a tiny position here (1/4R) with a stop below the recent low. It’s a speculative entry – a bit of a lottery ticket based on an early formation. Those patterns either take off like gangbusters or die in their cradle – we should know soon.

Believe it or not the damn ATM here in Valencia has starting to print derogatory Dollar jokes on my paper receipts. We expats get no respect over here!

A few more Forex goodies waiting below the fold – please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Have fun but keep it frosty – also expect low participation tape banging which means don’t be too stingy with setting your stops.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator

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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Bear Time!
    2. Head For The Beach
    3. Insurance Is Still Cheap
    4. Don’t buy the dip this time
    5. No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)
    6. Entries Do Not Matter
    7. Last Chance For The Bears
    8. Three Strikes You’re Out
    9. Binary Proposition
    10. Time To Wield The Iron




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