Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.


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Cheers,

The Blood Letting

Looks like this move caught a lot of folks by surprise as I don’t see the bears doing their occasional victory dance either. Not that they wouldn’t deserve one after all those years of pain. Which goes to show that high volatility tape without technical context can be detrimental to your account. It also shows that moves to the downside can be quite a bit faster than those to the upside. However if they move fast they usually flame out equally quickly. So let’s see where we are:

The volume profile chart shows us near the bottom of the high volume range we’ve been bouncing around in since early February. As you can gather participation drops off quickly after around 1830.

There’s not much in terms of technical support there and even the 100-day SMA on the E-Mini is looking a bit iffy. It’s been a while since it has been tested, so let’s look what else we got.

1844 came and went already since I took this snapshot. Which is why I called the 100-hour BB soft support. In strongly trending tape like this you cannot rely on upper/lower Bollingers. There need to be more in place to justify a counter directional play.

The weekly has us in mid-air until about 1817 and if things don’t slow down here near the close then it’s possible we’ll pay it a courtesy visit.

Gold campaign update – not elated about today’s drop lower but it is what it is. As we’re painting an IP we’ll move our stop to the lower trigger. You can add a contract if we run back up and breach today’s highs. May be a LKGB – we shall see…

Natgas – that one we took this morning (sub setup from Friday) and it’s looking good! Already breached a NLBL and that’s a definite plus. But don’t get too comfortable yet – Mrs. Natgas is a cruel mistress and we are not in the clear just yet.

ZB update – that also was a sub entry from this morning actually. It triggered like textbook at the NLBL and hasn’t looked back. I’m now looking for a spike low so I can advance my stop. Also a positive is the NLBL breach on the daily panel, so if all goes well we may turn this into a daily campaign. But I would keep the trending campaign management via the spike lows.

And another update – this time on the CAD/CHF. Here we were kicking butt and taking numbers but today we dropped back half of what we earned on Friday. Bugger – we’ll be closing this one out today as we have breached 2R and will probably close below it. So ignore what I typed on the chart – I got it wrong. Today’s long trigger on the IP is however valid – and so is the short trigger of course.

Two more goodies below for my intrepid subs:


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Happy hunting but keep it frosty!

Cheers,

Bad News And Good News

Some of you guys may feel a bit miffed having missed the bus to yet another fast spike to the downside. I however caution you to not let emotions rule your thinking. You may recall that the same happened on the way up a few days earlier and it could be worse as we may have easily blown higher without any chance of getting in. So the bad news is – we dropped back into the old whipsaw zone from hell. The good news – yes, we dropped back into a region where we may actually get positioned before the tape is ready to proceed to the next phase.

Here’s the view on the E-Mini – it took the express elevator down after bumping against our volume chasm starting near 1880. I don’t see any way in right now (or out if you got suckered in near the top). Best to stay out of equities as of right now. Bite your time and wait for better opportunities – let Mrs. Market come to you, not the other way around. She’ll let you know when she’s ready to party.

Quick update on the NG campaign – it got triggered this morning and is currently attempting to heave itself above that daily NLBL which is still standing in the way. If we make it above it today then we should be good for a push higher – as of now things are still hanging in the balance.


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Cheers,





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