Drop The Baseline

Having been on the road until Tuesday I just realized that we’re heading into a long weekend. I suspect most of you are already on the way out or won’t catch this before Sunday night. So let’s dive right in:

The VIX Buy signal we triggered on Tuesday seems to be proceeding nicely. Worth noting is the fact that we have rapidly descended back toward a baseline near VIX 13.5 which only recently was breached. That’s quite a volatility squeeze and if you were caught with puts (and even calls) near the bottom and didn’t get out then your premiums aren’t worth jack at this point.

On the spoos we are heading toward a NLBL which represents our first technical hurdle. Nothing else to see here…

Our GBP/JPY correlation seems to be supportive – it’s served us well again this week.

My YM entry this morning has paid off very handsomely and I’m taking it off the table now as we’re touching a NLBL on the daily panel. Good chance for a little shake out here.

I know it’s a long weekend and all but I actually ran into some very nice setups. Please join me in the lair:


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Per today’s theme I’m kicking off your Easter weekend in style by dropping a real bassline:

And another one – as it’s a three day weekend – wohoo!

Make sure no pets or younglings are nearby then grab a cold one and crank these suckers up. Wishing you all a fabulous weekend – see you guys next Monday!

Cheers,

Owned It!

So I ask all of you guys: Just a day or two ago – how many of you imagined that we’ve be pushing toward 1870 on Friday? I surely did not and I remember a bunch of folks here and over on the Slope who were predicting that the bulls ‘were done’. Just like those 1980s pop idols – where are they today?

Given such directional bias I am pretty certain that a very small minority took my short term entry near 1844 on Thursday morning. Which at this point has banked me 22 handles and counting. Now yesterday I already eluded to the fact that I am turning this into a long term trade as we are two hours away from triggering a monthly inside period. Which means I will put my stop at break/even (1844.5) in anticipation of a more protracted short squeeze.

In case you wonder why – yes, as usual there is madness to Mole’s method – or was it the other way around? The P&F target now points toward 2000 plus – that would be something. I’m sure we don’t get there in a b-line but I would be happy with a push above 1900 this time around.

Here’s another victim I suggested in my morning update yesterday: Natgas was chugging along inside a very narrowly compressed Bollinger and I was looking for a ST entry. Today’s NLBL got me in near 4.5 – my stop is below 4.3. Now I don’t have a dog in this fight and fully expect to be stopped out. But on the off chance she’s able to bust above that 100-hour SMA on Monday we should be golden.

Two more futures setups looming below for my intrepid subs – please join me in the lair:


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And that’ll be it for this week – it’s been a wild one but if you paid attention and stuck to the script I’m sure you came out on top. And now it’s time to kick back a little and reach for your favorite malt beverage – I’m sure by now y’all know my favorite poison:

There you go – a group picture – how nice! I think I’ll try to cover that in sequence over the weekend :-)

Prost!!

Only The Paranoid Mole Survives

The bounce I expected earlier this morning finally materialized but not before grazing my new stop which I had advanced to 1840.25. Bugger! I didn’t even get to take the 25% profits yesterday as I was off the 1.2R mark by a tick or two. Well, that happens – it’s just one out of 10,000 as we say.

So you may wonder about today’s theme and I’ll explain it to you via the Zero chart shown above. As you can see the current bounce higher is not accompanied by a meaningful signal (see the flatline on the Zero Lite). This usually means that participation is rather thin and that the current push higher may be a trap. You know – just because we’re paranoid doesn’t mean they are not out to get us – believe me, they very much are. So the next question in our mind should be – how can we take advantage of this?

Fortunately today’s tape is producing what I was hoping for yesterday already – an inside day candle. Which means we now have a trigger to the up and down side. It’s a decent range which should keep us from getting whipsawed tomorrow (so goes the theory – cough cough).

Here’s the same on the NQ – it was even painting a doji as I took this snapshot – if we close this way it would support the concept of indecision. Anyway, unless we paint a big move in the next two hours the triggers are as shown on the chart. Again, if you are new here then check our cheat sheet for the rules.

Another juicy inside day candle on the AUD/CAD – it also happens to be in an Retest Variation Short configuration. I would however prefer a long breach here – trading with the trend is so much more rewarding.

More setups below the fold – please grab your decoder rings:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
  1. recent misdeeds

    1. Drop The Baseline
    2. Lazy Thursday Morning Briefing
    3. Back In The Thick Of It
    4. The Squeeze Is On!
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    6. We have a potential long setup here, but it sucks
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