Ambivalence Galore

I think it was a bit over a week ago when I suggested that we may be heading into difficult territory and unfortunately I seemed to have been right about that. The gyrations of the past week have produced more ambivalence and thus far a winner has not emerged just yet. We are still at an inflection point that gives both the bulls and the bears an equal opportunity to turn the ship into their respective territory. As of right now we are still in limbo with the bears currently enjoying a slight advantage.

As you may recall equities produced a shooting star formation last Friday and it was triggered earlier today. If you played the spoos then this is your campaign – 1R equals 21.75 handles, which is 86 ticks. Your 1R point is still ways away at 1833.75.

Which is why I played the TF (as did my subs I hope) and I already managed to add that other 1/2R I was talking about. I basically earned it and my new stop is now at my trigger point, thus already bringing me to break even. Which is excellent as I have very little confidence about the direction just yet. Admittedly we are now back at the lower range of the limbo territory.

There is one chart however that is a must see on the equities side as something very significant happened today – I’ve posted it below the fold for my subs. Not to be missed and if you’re on the fence about subscribing then this may be a good time ;-)

If you can rely on one thing in this market then it’s that ole’ bucky is getting its butt kicked near important resistance zones. I suggested a short at 80.5 last week and I barely got triggered by a few ticks. I have earned 1/2R on this one and will keep the other half running with a new stop at 80.2.

Bummer about the CAD/JPY this morning – didn’t trigger long before faking a short. FX is pretty nervous lately and it’s affecting equities a great deal. A few setups below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Cheers,

That’s How We Roll

While you leeches have been picking your noses or worse the Mole has been banking coin like a Goldman. Seriously – this shouldn’t be so easy! I sincerely hope some of the subs have been paying attention. Let’s catch up with some of our recent victims:

This morning’s short on the spoos below the daily NLBL didn’t last long – fortunately in my foresight (and lack of allegiance) I had my flippidy-flop already set and have been long since 1840.75. We are marking 1R at 1851.5 BUT I won’t be playing this one Crazy Ivan style – we’ve just busted through a weekly NLBL and I intend to leave my ISL intact for now. The idea here is to play for an outlier (i.e. short squeeze) and thus employ a Heisenberg style campaign management. That leaves us taking 25% profits at 1.2R – which we barely missed today. THEN and only then can we move our stop to break/even (i.e. one tick below my entry = 1840.5).

Next – gold – oh boy – that hammer already banked us nearly an R in less than a session. I’m going to hold this one until that monthly NLBL at 1361.8. If you feel like it then you can start taking partial profits – perhaps take 50% off and move your stop to b/e.

But we are not done just yet – wait for it – sugar! Remember we banked 1R last Friday and it had the courtesy to not stop us out at the 1R point. Now I’m going to switch this bugger over to Heisenberg style campaign management. After pushing near 5R today we are now have a trailing stop at ~1R MFE. That means from now on your stop will always be 0.25 handles (i.e. 25 ticks) below the very high. Right now that is 17.42 and I may as well be stopped out by the time you read this. But if it keeps running – who knows where it can go!

That’s right – that’s how we roll here at Evil Speculator. You can keep wasting time trying to predict where the SPX will be by next April or you can do what we do – simply find look for high probability setups and develop campaign management rules that maximize your opportunities. Most retail traders analyze the market in order to predict prices – which is a complete and utter waste of time.

This remains to be the one salient fact retail is unable to wrap its mind around: Predicting prices has little to do with successful trading. What is important is determining when the risk is overwhelmingly in your favor and then controlling that risk via carefully developed campaign management rules. And that is exactly what we are doing – and apparently it is working.

Now here are two more goodies for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

He’s Dead Jim

Apparently most of you have already left for the weekend, so I’ll be brief. The spoos have been pushing sideways all day and after seeing the Zero Lite paint a complete flatline I decided to cut my ST longs at break even:

I’m afraid Bones is right – the E-Mini expired sometime after lunch and nobody had the heart to tell it. We’ve got a complete flatline going and that’s when I usually step aside and call it a week.

Sunday night I recommend you start watching 1840.25 and 1835.25 – those two are our long and short triggers. The former is a NLBL and the latter still qualifies as an RTV-S. Obviously the range is simply ridiculously long and if you want you can widen your ISL a little bit.

Quick update on sugar – I was elated to see that some of you subs jumped into that one as it was such a beautiful formation. Well, since this morning’s entry it already earned us 1R and that means our stop now moves to 16.73. IF we close below it then you will need to end this campaign.

A few more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Wishing all of my steel rats and lurking Slopers a very relaxing and Hefeweizen infused weekend. We’ve killed it this week and deserve to take it easy for a few days. At least that’s what’s on my agenda.

Prost!!





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