So Far So Good

This morning’s entry on the NQ has already paid off as we just crossed the 1R mark a few minutes ago. Actually I had to go back and retook a snapshot of my charts but was happy to do so. Now as you know per the rules we have to close above the 1R mark – if not then we need to close out EOD.

Here are the respective levels and I even added one tick to the top of bottom which is something we ought to be doing in order to assure proper risk management. As you can see the 1R mark is at 3581.8 and if we close above it then put your stop right there. If not then close out and call it an easy peesy R earned in just a few hours :-)

The general context is looking more bullish again – we just busted through the 100-hour SMA as well as the 100-day and a NLSL we breached last Friday. If it can keep this up then the bulls may just pull this thing out of the mud. However, we cannot dismiss the fact that we are still plotting lower highs and lower lows on the NQ – until that changes the bears still have a good shot at dragging it lower.

Update on our AUD/USD campaign – good news: We just breached the 2R point and that means we are putting our stop right there at the EOD. Once again – should we drop back and close below it then that will be the end of this campaign.

Finally an update on the NG campaign – it managed to crawl its way above the 1R mark and it’s starting to look pretty good. Move your stop to 4,555 and that’s all for this one.

A few more goodies below the fold for my subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Now that should keep you guys occupied for a while – have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,

The Outer Limits

So where are back from whence we came and I hope you enjoyed the ride. I know – who am I kidding – it’s been a rough month and let’s hope that April will not only bring us better weather but also put us into a less devious market phase. So let’s see where we’re at on the equities side:

It’s getting interesting as we now have reached the outer limits of the current whipsaw zone. No, there is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical.

Literally that is – I’m not sure there is much left on the vertical but that was a nice jump in four days. If we push above 1880 then the momentum may again propel us higher in the stair step fashion we have have seen lately. Also don’t forget that SPX 1880 will switch our P&F back into bullish mode.

Also rather compelling right now is that the VIX is starting to drop below a pretty pronounced support line. And that may herald a new low volatility period that gets us back to the 12 mark or below. OR it may be that we are dropping from here. Unfortunately I don’t see a price pattern to get us into a position right now. At least on the equities side.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t have any fun, does it? Here’s crude which I very much liked this morning and happily pimped to my subscribers. I got filled short near 101 and it’s been one wild ride ever since. Have taken partial profits but will keep 50% in the running for a touch of daily support near 99.1. And if you weren’t a sub – well then you probably missed out ;-)

On a totally different note – you recall my write up on market phases the other day. Here’s a chart that should do two things for you – demonstrate two very distinct market periods for one. And then also drive home the point that mean reversion does not always happen, especially on the Forex and futures side. So if you trade expecting platykurtotic markets you will get burned, just a matter of time. Always know which market phase you are in and that also means looking at volatility. I and Scott have written about this rather exhaustively, go hunt it down – the search box is your friend.

We have a lot of setups tonight – here’s a freebie: Bond futures – the 10-year is at NLSL support but is also painting an RTV-S. I want to be short here with the trend if the NLSL triggers tomorrow.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Divergences

I’m seeing some divergences as we are approaching some daily resistance on the S&P 500. Admittedly this is a very soft edge but let’s explore it as our risk is pretty limited here. First let’s look at what caught my attention this afternoon:

The VIX:VXO ratio basically contrasts the price of the 1-month option chain vs. the strikes near ATM. Divergences in pricing usually are subtle hints that market makers are preparing for a quick shake out. May be nothing but that was a rather steep drop this afternoon. And then there’s this:

Here’s the GBP/JPY, a popular carry trade pair, vs. the spoos. As you can see they usually pretty much move in tandem, or at least have been in recent weeks. Today however we’ve got them dropping – obviously Carney’s announcement to overhaul how his central bank is run threw some jitters into the GBP pairs. Again, could be ignored but let’s look at the spoos now:

As we are pushing higher we are approaching the NLBL at 1869. I would love to see a close right below which would put me in a speculative short position (1/2R). My stop would be very nearby at 1870, perhaps a few ticks higher for good measure. If we close above the NLBL today or tomorrow however then we have a long signal.

More goodies below for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





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