Spot On

You guys have to give me a tiny bit of credit today – after slaving away 20 hours plus last weekend and barely being awake I somehow managed to pick the lows of the day in the morning. Alright, technically I was off by 1/2 handle – I hope you accept my apologies then:

2014-09-29_spoos_update

It’s all in the wrist folks – and a bit of dark magic of course. The bad news however is that the bulls may not be out of the woodworks here just yet. A rather aggressive bounce this morning but that may be just EOM painting – recall that tomorrow is September’s last trading session. Oy vey – I can already here the Christmas commercials – the horror! Yes, that’s right – you’re getting old.

I would not wager making any conclusive call down here – we’ve held some reasonable support and if you bought there then by all means hold your positions for now. But unless we close positive or almost positive today this may lead lower on Wednesday.

2014-09-29_Zero

The chart of the day for me is the Zero – excellent Mole signals and if I wasn’t so damn tired I’d put up a video. But I’m pretty sure most of you guys would prefer me finishing Thor, right? Which after a Sunday snag has since progressed very nicely and I should be able to put up an early alpha sometime tomorrow. Cross your fingers.

UPDATE 4:30pm EDT - see above the updated chart.

2014-09-29_USDTRY_update

Our USD/TRY campaign is nearing its end as I banked 50% profits at the 4R mark – if it wasn’t trending so massively I would have closed it out altogether. But I’ve had an excellent month and that permits me a bit of discretion. However when I say discretion it means putting a stop below the 3R mark – so I’m not exactly playing dare devil. This was an awesome campaign and sadly I don’t think that many of you guys tagged along – at least judging by what I’m seeing in the comment section.

2014-09-29_EURUSD_LT

Since it’s the EOM I’m planning to do a long term update tomorrow – I think given where we are waiting another session is probably wise. On the Forex side the USD and the EUR are heading into respective inflection points – I wanted to post the EUR/USD early as it’s going on ‘bounce watch’ now. The weekly and monthly will put up some support here and odds are that the easy ride is over the Euro bears. It’s been a fun quarter for this expat as I’ve seen the EUR/USD go from almost 1.4 to nearly 1.27. That’s 13 cents I’m saving per Euro spent – quite significant and I’m able to afford an extra slice of bacon per week.

Two more setups below for my intrepid subs – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it for today – see you guys tomorrow!

Cheers,

Feeling Volatile

The comment section has gone into flatline mode so I must assume that many of you guys are enjoying an extended weekend. Well, the market waits for no man (or woman) – since it’s only the hardcore crew I’ll be brief but I will make it count as we have nice setups today:

2014-09-03_spoos_update

So I told you guys to short near 2010 and judging by the thundering silence none of you rats did. A bit frustrating, but not for yours truly as I pocketed some green on the way down. I can tell you where the good spots are but if you guys don’t pull the trigger – well, refer to my comment in the intro.

Now what does this chart above tell us? Quite a bit of short term price volatility there – it’s been going on for a week now. Where does this sort of thing (sideways/volatile) usually happen? That’s right – before big moves. Again, direction is unclear but the more time we spend here the greater the chance we’ll actually get a good entry. FYI – I have no directional bias.

2014-09-03_zero

Before we get to the setups. The Zero indicator did a bang job again today – very nice divergence near the lows – just like yesterday. If you are a sub and didn’t play those then please proceed directly to the tutorial page for a refresher.

2014-09-03_gold_update

Seems like that speculative gold entry yesterday (sorry – subs only) may just have a leg to stand on. I also like the proximity of the 25-week Bollinger (a touch would have been better). Best we can do right now is to leave our stop below 1260 and forget about it for a few days.

2014-09-03_PL_setup

While we’re in the precious metals aisle – I’m long platinum on a breach of that hammer. I think Scott would actually like this one, hammers and shooting stars are his new thing (with a few additional rules thrown into the mix). Anyway stop below today’s lows – or you can put it below the 100day BB nearby.

2014-09-03_sugar_setup

Sugar is looking sweet again – may just be able to muster up the mojo for a bounce. Long here with a stop just a few ticks below (i.e. < 15.5). A bit speculative – you may reduce R size to 0.5.

2014-09-03_AUDUSD_setup

AUD/USD – nice reversal – I want to be long above the NLBL on the daily. FWIW – beautiful BB compression on the weekly. I think we may just see some movement here into fall.

2014-09-03_USDCAD_setup

USD/CAD back near the 100-day SMA – it’s now or never. If it fails it then we’re pretty going to see a more complex correction – the easy path is to bounce here and take off. Decent probability and I’m in with 1R – stop a respectable distance below the 100-day as shown on the chart.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Short Term Opportunity

Forgive my absence this morning, as you may imagine I’m still recovering from my back injury. However, I have not been completely useless as I’m actually working on a very cool surprise for you guys. I’ll explain it all either tomorrow or Monday, depending on how fast I get it done. In the meantime I have been observing the recent gyrations on the E-Mini and given the ES 1903 retest a little earlier I think we have ourselves a juicy short term setup opportunity. That is IF we wield the iron while it’s hot!

You may recall that 1903 was yesterday’s low as well and it tested once again today. I cannot guarantee you that it’ll hold, we simply have to wait things out. But we do have a rare opportunity right now for a long campaign with a stop just a few handles away. Get long here and put your stop a few ticks below 1903 – that’s it. Don’t play options as vega squeeze would rob you of most of your profits – stick with the futures or if you want your favorite ETF (short term they are fine).

That’s the view courtesy of the Zero indicator – over the past three sessions the hourly panel has been producing a pretty distinct divergence. Again, that doesn’t mean that the lows cannot be breached but until this happens (and we drop through 1903) there are decent odds down here for a bounce and perhaps a little short squeeze. Below 1903 Lucifer awaits and all bullish bets are off.

UPDATE  1:49pm EDT: As I’m typing this we are right below VWAP at 1912 – a push above it before the close probably seals the deal on a little bounce higher. If VWAP cannot be breached then it’s fair to hold any long (futures) positions beyond the NYSE close but make sure you are around to manage them. Now let’s grab the popcorn and see what happens.

UPDATE  EOS: The bulls didn’t have the mojo to drive the tape higher. This may get ugly and turn into Soylent Red. We’ll watch the tape but we won’t be trying any long positions until a bullish or bearish inflection point has been reached.

See you guys tomorrow – have fun but keep it frosty.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Introducing Thor
    2. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    3. Spot On
    4. Monday Morning Briefing
    5. No Follow Up
    6. Which Way Do You Bend Sir?
    7. Thursday Morning Briefing
    8. Working On Thor
    9. Why You Should Care About Fractals
    10. Tuesday Morning Briefing




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick