Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Once again the bears absolutely blew it last week as the tape was lined up for an grizzly homecoming party which was rudely cancelled without further notice on Friday afternoon. If you look at the daily S&P cash you can see how perfect this configuration was – another five handles or so lower and we may have seen a significant stab to the downside. Just like Argentina last night the bears can add this one to a long and growing list of ignominious failures.

The spoos are currently scraping 1970 which puts us near 1976 on the cash should we hold the upper BB line here until the open. Obviously my remaining short positions met their maker at my break even point at 1968.5. This is pretty much what we expected and given the probability/payoff ratio at the entry I would take this trade every single time. The way it is I eeked out a humble 1/4R out of this campaign – nothing to write home about but I think it was nicely executed.

On the setup front it’s very quiet on the futures side this morning. I was able to dig up three Forex victims and I’ll throw one out to you leeches. The NZD/USD has been pushing sideways in a triangle like formation but it’s starting to run out of rope as the 100-hr and 25-hr SMAs are closing in. Thus far odds suggest that the 100-hour will hold and thus I’m risking an R to be long with a stop below the moving average.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Today’s event schedule:

And here’s the spike controller for you Forex traders:

Cheers,

Is It Summer Already?

Temperatures over here in Spain are slowly crawling higher and the locals are busy preparing for the annual onslaught of UV deprived Northern Europeans (and a few Americans as well). Down here at the lair air massive air conditioning units are running in overdrive as my charting/reasoning abilities degrade inversely with every degree Celsius higher on the scale. There has been very little activity here yesterday and the tape did its best to keep everyone bothering to pay attention bored to tears.

However when the bus is empty it often winds up picking up speed. Although I’m getting concerned on a medium to long term basis equity futures are looking solid here on a short term. If you are ever looking for a textbook example of a clean diagonal with nicely separated touch points then look no further than the E-Mini futures today. If I don’t wind up heading to the beach or gym then I will probably grab a long position if we retest that diagonal.

What I like about it in particular is that the 25-hour is merging with it right now and that gives us dual support. Put your stop a handle below and don’t play more than 1/2R – if it pops it’ll be worth the hassle. However if we wind up gyrating sideways again don’t waste your time – you’ll probably get a pretty good idea of where we’re heading in the first hour of the NYSE session. If in doubt consult the Zero indicator, which by the way was flatlining most of yesterday.

The NQ dons a similar pattern and although I would follow the ES it may be worthwhile to split your 1/2R between those two. It’s always good to see those two get into alignment when things are looking bullish.

EUR/USD – I’m going to play a tiny position here (1/4R) with a stop below the recent low. It’s a speculative entry – a bit of a lottery ticket based on an early formation. Those patterns either take off like gangbusters or die in their cradle – we should know soon.

Believe it or not the damn ATM here in Valencia has starting to print derogatory Dollar jokes on my paper receipts. We expats get no respect over here!

A few more Forex goodies waiting below the fold – please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Have fun but keep it frosty – also expect low participation tape banging which means don’t be too stingy with setting your stops.

Cheers,

Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

So the GBP/JPY is painting a pretty distinct divergence right now. Not a reason to grab long positions but it’s an early warning sign that we may see a bounce today.

The conditions are favorable for a dead cat bounce at least – here’s the hourly SPX cash. As you can see it’s managed to hold the 100-hour SMA as I previously suggested. The SMA is still rising however and that puts the onus on the bulls to stave off further selling. Even if we see a push higher today however there is still the possibility for it turning into a dead cat bounce. We’ll have to closely monitor the internals today – so keep an eye on the Zero Lite for divergences and early signs of monkey business.

Here’s the hourly spoos in the context of my BBs – we’re somewhere in the mid of nowhere right now. What’s interesting is the tentative rising diagonal it’s producing. We may see a quick stab lower near the open to scare out some of the children – I don’t think the bulls are in real trouble until below ES 1916.

But we have work to do this morning, so let’s get rolling. Here’s crude which looks like a good buy above 107.39. Stop below 107 – and I mean below, don’t tack it right there.

EUR/CAD – attempt to paint a floor and although we may see a retest of that NLSL I want to be long above that 100-hour SMA.

If you weren’t a sub last week then you may be experiencing a pounding pressure in your cranium. May I suggest a dose of Excedrin – Oberyn Martell strongly recommends it.┬áLess invasive (home-grown organic) treatment available below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

P.S.: No skulls were crushed during the production of this post.





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