Sweeeet!

Once in a while we get a setup that is just to sweet to pass up. It’s got the word ‘sweet’ tattooed all over its ass.

Now, if I just could remember where the heck I parked my car…

Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Lunchtime Learning: Berk’s Trend-Trading

Some of you, and myself as well, think it was quite apropos for my to leave when I did, and return as I have.  I am a trend trader at heart, and the 9 months of rally that I missed were merely the time I was to be playing ping-pong and waiting for the next trend to show it’s love.  Since I can combine EWT with trend-trading, I am looking to catch individual equities that have been underperforming some where in wave 1, and ride them down all the wave until their motive move has reversed.  Stronger stocks, I will usually catch right at wave 3 is busting out…

Since I was lazy on one of my charts yesterday, and Gregn (I believe it was you) called me out on it…  I will give you a little piece of my mind…  (in a good way).  :-)

Here’s a little preview of how I am trading the next move down…

BB system entries.

BB system entries.

You might be saying to yourself right now that you wouldn’t have done very will in a the given time-frame, and I concur.  All the entries except the first short entry have been stopped out just about break-even, or for a slight loss.  However, you are up a few points on the first short entry, and should X drop today, will be adding to that position.  Now for the fun part.

Notice that you may or may not have been stopped out (closes vs. pushes) on the second unit, but would have just added the next day anyway.

Can you say WOW?!?

Can you say WOW?!?

Admittedly, there are quite a few chop and stop entries before you get the real love.  But consider this:  To catch the intended move (which as you can see is quite large) you must buy options with a shit-tonne (again, technical term) of time behind them.  Therefore, OTM, ITM, ATM, whatever, your options should be barely affected by these chop and stop price moves…

Basic premise:  Enter long on an upward break of the upper BB, add on a break of the second upper BB.  Reduce postition on a close back inside of the .75 upper BB and close the position completely on a close back inside the .50 upper BB.  Take no action inside the .50 BB, and reverse the directions for going short.  This system is best traded with stock or with long term options.

Notice that the winners banked roughly a 40% upmove and a 65% downmove (plus an additional 50% down move, but 25 to 12 isn’t so drastic {at that point}).  Winnings like that should easily clear out a number of chop and stop trades.  That’s it.  Please ask questions if you find it interesting.  I have a number of modified rules for it (set up for MY trading style), but I would love to hear your input.

Mole wanted to make sure that all of us don’t fall for this suspect rally.  Participation remains light…  Just trying to shake us shorts out…

1 hr zero chart.

1 hr zero chart.

UPDATE: 13:30EDT:

Updated $NDX count.  Looking pretty good here.   A push up here without a new afternoon low would eliminate the count as labeled.

$NDX updated counts.

$NDX updated counts.

Some close up action of my view on the current count.  Alternate count is in pinkish, and represents an A-B-C flat in wave 4 of minuette C in minute ii.  I know, I know hard to take all that proper-degree counting and shit…

Could it be we are ready for wave {{iii}} of {iii} of (iii) of iii of III (not really that many 3's but you get my point).

Could it be we are ready for wave {{iii}} of {iii} of (iii) of iii of III (not really that many 3's but you get my point).

End of day count.  Sure as hell were trying to stop us out weren’t they.  Expect a pop and drop Monday, or a straight fall from the open.  Markets are weak here, and are struggling with reclaiming any intra-day high.

A final count for the day.

A final count for the day.

With that, I am off to do some errands.  I will be back for some kind of summary post later tonight or tomorrow.  Hope y’all fared well.

So I lied… One final diddy on the volume.

Now I’m out…  Catch y’all later.

Skål!

Revenge Of The Silver Surfer

1:30pm EDT: Full disclosure time: I wanted to mention that I bought a load of SLV Oct 12P this morning.

This is a long term trade which I will hold into the summer.

Hey, this actually looks a bit like me – LOL ;-)

2:00pm EDT: Channel update:

I cleaned it up a little but it’s still not super reliable. However, I think that 940 -936 is a bounce zone. If you are bullish this is where you should grab positions – easily managed by a stop a few points down. If you are bearish this is the uncle point. Personally – I have no clue – Zero is completely flat at this point and I’m looking forward to my weekend – not in the mood to pick sides – already banked my coin this morning and this tape sucks.

Geronimo is long again since 944.50 – didn’t get the best entry if you ask me – but I’ve seen it win in the end before, which is why I’m also cautious about the short side. evil.rat and resident.evil are flat right now – resident.evil/ES was stopped out this morning.

3:20pm EDT: I just updated the channel chart above – take a look. Seems like we are doing a little retest before we (hopefully) drop into the close.

3:30pm EDT: We just touched VWAP on the NQ from below and it ‘seems’ as if we’re kissing this pig goodbye. Of course anything can happen in the last hour of Friday with so little participation.





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