Bring On The Carnage

Yesterday I probably should have given more credence to the possibility that we may get follow through to the downside for the mere reason that none of the bears saw this one coming (we did – cough cough) and are probably either faking it at their favorite watering holes right now or are busy outside kicking a tree. My money is on this guy:

See, you can’t blame him – he really doesn’t like bananas. Now seriously the continuation lower today changes things considerably and I’ll tell you why. We should have had our bounce, then a drop lower toward support, then a final scare and finally it’s back to business as usual. What happened here is going to pop a lot of stops and leave folks rattled. When the invariable dip buyers finally show up they will be easy pickings for another leg lower – in other words today’s continuation kicks open the door for a medium term correction.

There is of course no predicting how far we’ll drop but the next logical support zone is near SPX 1920ish plus minus a few handles. Please refer to yesterday’s update if you don’t remember why. Although I don’t enjoy making lofty predictions I have pointed out a possible scenario which I call Soylent Orange (anyone remember those days?).

The only remaining equities setup yesterday was the TF and if you grabbed it you just earned yourself one R. I would probably take profits here at the EOD and call it a day as its other three brethren are rapidly falling toward their respective support zones.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – betting against the Dollar near important inflection points always is a good trade. Not much else to be said here – I still have hopes ole’ bucky can push higher but who am I kidding?

Coffee is looking pretty good here as it’s retesting its 100-day SMA and if we get an IP-S tomorrow I’ll take that one. The long side here does not interest me right now.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – we had big moves across the board but I managed to eek out a few promising setups:


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Have fun but keep it frosty!

Cheers,

Setup Bonanza!

Interesting turn of events this morning – although my growing cautiousness concerning the equities (long) side has thus far paid off I’m not yet convinced that we’re heading into another correction. Be this as it may, I did get positioned nicely courtesy of the TF this morning and I intend to hold this position for now or until stopped out at break/even:

Although there was a quick fake out toward the NLBL my stop was well placed and thus far I’ve racked up almost two R. Which is nice but not really what I’m interested in – I’m turning this into a lottery ticket to the downside given what I’m seeing on the short term momo side:

VIX:VXO (which I showed to the subs yesterday) continues to point downward. Again, it could be a fluke or a bear trap but I already earned my entry and I’m sitting pretty right now.

Out of fairness I should however show you guys the Zero Lite which is rather flat today. So not much participation on the downside here and I give this 40% chance to continue lower. I don’t see a long entry here right now either unfortunately – once I do I’ll let you guys know.

Update on the Dollar entry which I hope some of you guys grabbed yesterday. The right panel shows us at the 2R threshold and that means we are either moving our stop up if we close above it or close our position if we close below it. That is via the CrazyIvan campaign rules. If I would employ Heisenberg then I would have taken partial profits a bit above 1R and moved my stop to b/e. So I leave this in your capable hands – it’s possible that the Dollar is going to enjoy a run higher. But heck – it’s the Dollar right? So I’ll stick with CI rules on this one ;-)

So many awesome setups today – here’s crude gracing us with a very interesting configuration I tried to explain on the chart. Could swing either way and we are near the $100 mark – will definitely take whatever trigger this throws at me.

And I cannot believe I’m actually giving this one away for free as it’s my favorite. I have already gone long via this morning’s short term entry near 104. My stop is at today’s lows and all that ties very nicely into the IP and RTV-L that any of you leeches may grab later tonight. Absolutely love this setup and I think it’s coiled up and ready to snap.

More goodies below the fold – it’s a veritable futures bonanza today – seems Hoss is getting all excited. Please grab your secret decoder rings and join me in my freshly painted spring lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Cheers,

The Session After

I have been cruising the comment section and am elated to actually see folks show up for work and exchange productive discourse. That’s the type of collaboration I had in mind when I hatched the evil lair in the first place. So keep it coming folks and if you’re a noob don’t be shy and jump right into the fray. We’ve got a solid crew here doing their thing each and every day and you may just learn a thing or two. Knowledge is power – well, at least it can’t hurt ;-)

Let me get you guys on track with the equities side. Depending on your entries I trust you’ve moved your stops down to the 1R or 2R point. I’d be surprised if it triggered already and per the rules I wouldn’t touch it. However after yesterday’s wipeout it’s no surprise to see us in a sideways range-bound session today and that’ll probably complete as an inside day candle. Which moves our stop to 1,785.73 on the SPX – that also would be our long entry for tomorrow.

Most likely you played the spoos so here are those as well for your convenience. Each side has good odds in my mind – at this point I have no directional bias. Medium term this can easily continue lower and short term a little bounce wouldn’t be much of a stretch here.

If you played the YM then you’ll be enjoying a very teeny weeny IP starting tomorrow’s session (i.e. post 4:15pm EST tonight). I actually may dip into a few longs if we trigger 15,417 later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Natgas – boy, that one really took off like a rocket. Already printed 1.5R and that means you’ll advance your stop to 5,223. Congrats if you jumped into this one. The futures have treated us well lately and I have got a few more waiting below today.

GBP/JPY – not sure where/if you got your entry yesterday but if you’re in this one then advance your stop to the SMA or your b/e point today. Good show – I really like this one but be prepared for a last kiss goodbye move.

A ton of goodies below the fold – please grab your secret decoder rings:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





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